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Filling the gaps in observation-based estimates of air–sea carbon fluxes working group

CRE02558_NaturalvsAnthropogenicCarbonintheOceanandATM_Benway_Comoposite-web

With leadership from Galen McKinley (LDEO) (conceptual design) and Natalie Renier (WHOI graphic artist), a new illustration on natural and anthropogenic components of the ocean carbon cycle has been developed as a product of this working group. 

Credit: Design: Natalie Renier, WHOI Creative ©WHOI; Concept: Galen McKinley, Columbia Univ., Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory; Funding: Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry (OCB) Project Office (NSF, NASA)

A number of recent studies have applied novel statistical and machine-learning methods to in situ surface ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) observations to estimate the ocean carbon sink with unprecedented spatio-temporal resolution. These studies suggest that the oceanic CO2 sink is more variable on multiyear timescales than previously estimated from biogeochemical model simulations. This newly identified variability challenges our model-based mechanistic understanding and puts into question our projections of the future ocean carbon sink. These observation-based estimates, however, rely on extensive interpolation of limited observations, and thus their reliability is unclear, particularly in data-sparse regions and seasons. Furthermore, inconsistencies regarding the area covered by open and coastal ocean estimates hampers our ability to constrain CO2 fluxes across the full marine continuum (i.e., all tidal waters). The goal of this working group is to assess critical uncertainties in existing observation-based products, determine how best to integrate observation-based open-ocean and coastal-ocean CO2 air–sea fluxes, and quantify uncertainties in the natural (pre-industrial) outgassing of CO2. These efforts will lead to better constraints on the contemporary ocean carbon sink and its variability. The results of this OCB Working Group will assist the global carbon community in understanding the state of the global carbon cycle so as to contribute to international efforts to address climate change.

Working Group Proposal

Meeting and Teleconference Dates: May 5-6, 2020 (virtual meeting); July 15, 2020, September 25, 2020; November 16, 2020; January 8, 2021; March 29, 2021; May 26-27, 2021 (virtual meeting, May 26 open to all); September 30, 2021; March 5, 2022 at the Ocean Sciences Meeting (in person).

Galen McKinley
Galen McKinley
Jessica Cross
Jessica Cross
Tim DeVries
Tim DeVries
Judith Hauck
Judith Hauck
Peter Landschützer
Peter Landschützer
Goulven G. Laruelle
Goulven G. Laruelle
Nicole Lovenduski
Nicole Lovenduski
Pedro Monteiro
Pedro Monteiro
Ray Najjar
Ray Najjar
Laure Resplandy
Laure Resplandy
Chris Sabine
Chris Sabine
Adrienne Sutton
Adrienne Sutton
Rik Wanninkhof
Rik Wanninkhof
Nancy Williams
Nancy Williams

Galen McKinley (Columbia / LDEO, USA)

Jessica Cross (NOAA PMEL, USA)

Tim DeVries (University of California - Santa Barbara, USA)

Judith Hauck (Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany)

Peter Landschützer (MPI-Hamburg, Germany)

Goulven G. Laruelle (Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium)

Nicole Lovenduski (University of Colorado, Boulder, USA)

Pedro Monteiro (CSIR, South Africa)

Ray Najjar (Penn State University, USA)

Christian Rödenbeck (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Germany)

Laure Resplandy (Princeton University, USA)

Christopher Sabine (University of Hawaii Manoa, USA)

Adrienne Sutton (NOAA PMEL, USA)

Rik Wanninkhof (NOAA AOML, USA)

Nancy Williams (University of South Florida, USA)

Products & related papers

Hauck, Judith, Moritz Zeising, Corinne Le Quere, Nicolas Gruber, Dorothee C. Bakker, Laurent Bopp, Thi T. Chau, Özgür Gürses, Tatiana Ilyina, Peter Landschützer, Andrew Lenton, Laure Resplandy, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, and Roland Seferian (2020) Consistency and challenges in the ocean carbon sink estimate for the Global Carbon Budget. Frontiers in Marine Science. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2020.571720

Lovenduski, N. S., Swart, N. C., Sutton, A. J., Fyfe, J. C., McKinley, G. A., Sabine, C., & Williams, N. L. (2021). The ocean carbon response to COVID-related emissions reductions. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL092263. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092263.

OCB Working Group on Carbon Gaps Virtual Meetings

May 26-27, 2021, Year 2 Meeting

Wednesday, May 26, 11:00-16:00 EDT
Who: Working group members and open webinar for interested attendees

11:00-11:15 Welcome and Overview of Year 1 activities on Objective 1
Objective 1: Determine how to integrate open-ocean CO2 air–sea flux with fluxes from the coastal ocean, the Arctic Ocean, and natural outgassing.
11:15 - 12:30  Progress on Objective 1  (10 min talks, 30 min discuss on issues)
●      Climatology to the the coast (Landschützer)
●      Harmonization of pCO2 product flux calculations (Fay)
●      Coastal  (Lacroix and Regnier)
●      Synthesis of Fant, Fnat (McKinley)
●      Discussion and outstanding issues
12:30-12:45 - break
12:45 - 13:05 Models (10 minute talks)
●      Carbon and Heat uptake (Bronsealer)
●      Data Assimilation for ocean carbon (Mazloff)
13:05 - 13:45 Observations  (10 min talks)
●      USV air-sea pCO2 technology update (Sutton)
●      BGC-Argo surface carbon analysis update (Williams /  Bushinsky)
●      Sampling studies semi idealized OSSEs (Laique Djeutchouang)
●      Benguela-SOCHIC CO2 and heat flux experiment (Monteiro)
13:45-14:00 break
14:00 -14:30  Progress on Data Products (10 min talks)
●      Extrapolation to the past (Rödenbeck)
●      Using hindcast models as a first guess (Gloege)
●      DIC products (Gregor)
14:30-14:50  Update on Synthesis Activities (10 min talks)
●      GCB (Hauck)
●      RECCAP2 (DeVries)
14:50 - 16:00  Discussion

 

Thursday, May 27: Objective 2
Who: Working Group

11:00 EDT Summary of Day 1 (McKinley)
Objective 2: Recommend a path forward for improvements of air–sea CO2 flux estimates over the coming decades.
11:15-12:15 Discussion on Objective 2 for observational products (Discussion Leader: Landschutzer)
12:15– 12:20 Break
12:20 - 13:15 Discussion on Objective 2 for coastal ocean  (Discussion Leader: Najjar)
13:15 – 13:45 Break
13:45 – 14:45 Discussion on Objective 2 for ocean process models (Discussion Leader: Hauck)
14:45 – 15:30 OCB Working Group Goals and Closing (Discussion Leader: McKinley)
●      What synthesis paper do we want to submit in spring 2022?
●      What are immediate action items for 2020-2021?
●      Bi-Monthly teleconferences
15:30 END

 

Panelists
OCB Working group: Filling the gaps in observation-based estimates of air–sea carbon fluxes
Galen McKinley, Columbia / LDEO, USA
Peter Landschützer, MPI-Hamburg, Germany
Jessica Cross, NOAA PMEL, USA
Tim DeVries, University of California - Santa Barbara, USA
Judith Hauck, Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre
Goulven G. Laruelle , Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium
Nicole Lovenduski, University of Colorado, Boulder, USA
Pedro Monteiro, CSIR, South Africa
Ray Najjar, Penn State University, USA
Laure Resplandy, Princeton University, USA
Christian Rödenbeck, MPI-Biogeochemistry, Germany
Christopher Sabine, University of Hawaii
Adrienne Sutton, NOAA PMEL, USA
Rik Wanninkhof, NOAA AOML, USA
Nancy Williams, University of South Florida, USA

May 5-6, 2020 - Year 1 Meeting

May 5-6, 2020
Year 1 Meeting Agenda

Tuesday, May 5: Current state of understanding of the global ocean carbon sink
Who: Working Group and open webinar for interested attendees

Key points for all speakers:
1. How well do we know air-water fluxes and their variability across timescales?
2. What are the most important uncertainties?
3. How can this working group help to bridge from direct pCO2 observations to global and regional synthesis?

Day 1 full YouTube Playlist

11:00-11:35 EDT Welcome and Introductions  View recording on YouTube Welcome slides Introduction slides
11:35– 12:45 The Open Ocean  View recording on YouTube
Observationally-based products (Landschützer, 8 min)   Slides
Hindcast ocean models (Lovenduski, 8 min)   Slides
Outgassing of natural carbon input from rivers (Resplandy, 8 min)   Slides
Evidence from interior observations (DeVries, 8 min)   Slides
Gas Exchange Uncertainties, including OCB workshop on Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction (Wanninkhof, 8 min)    Slides
Discussion
12:45– 12:50 BREAK
12:50-13:35 The Coastal Ocean    View recording on YouTube
Coastal data and global products (Laruelle, 8 min)   Slides
Processes in the coastal zone (Najjar, 8 min)   Slides
Arctic (Cross, 8 min)
Discussion
13:35-14:00 BREAK
14:00-15:20 Synthesis and Observational Programs (Activities, Goals, Challenges, 2020-22 Plans)   View recording on YouTube
Synthesis and Planning
RECCAP2 (DeVries, 8 min)   Slides
Integrated Ocean Carbon Research (IOC-R) (Sabine, 8 min)  Slides
Global Carbon Budget (Hauck, 8 min)  Slides
WCRP grand challenge on decadal prediction and OMIP (Lovenduski, 8 min)   Slides
Observing Systems and Projects
SOCONET, SOCAT, ICOS-OTC, ISOOS (Wanninkhof, 8 min)  Slides
Bio-Argo, SOCCOM (Williams, 8 min)
SO-CHIC project  - speaker was unable to connect for this presentation - for more information, please visit http://www.sochic-h2020.eu/
Discussion
15:20-16:00 Plan Open and Coastal Discussion Points for Day 2 (some suggestions at end)

 

Wednesday, May 6: Current state of understanding of the ocean carbon sink
Who: Working Group

11:00 EDT Introductions and summary of Day 1 (McKinley)
11:15-12:15 Discussion on Open Ocean, Part I
(Discussion Leader: Landschutzer)
12:15-12:20- BREAK
12:20 - 13:15 Discussion on Open Ocean, Part II
(Discussion Leader: Landschutzer)
13:15-13:45 BREAK
13:45 – 14:45 Discussion on Coastal Ocean
(Discussion Leader: Najjar)
14:45 – 15:30 OCB Working Group Goals and Closing
(Discussion Leader: McKinley)
What synthesis paper do we want to submit in spring 2022?
What are immediate action items for 2020-2021?
Bi-Monthly teleconferences
15:30 End

Open Ocean Discussion Question possibilities:

  • What are the critical uncertainties in observation-based products (skin effect, gas exchange formulation, interpolation technique, changing data density over time)? How can we better constrain these?
  • The pre-industrial river flux challenge for global closure
    • What is the best approach given current knowledge?
    • What is needed in the next 5-10 years to independently constrain this flux?
  • What steps are needed to make observation-based products open ocean results more directly comparable to hindcast model simulations in the RECCAP / Global Carbon Budget framework?
  • Is there a need for a continuation of the SOCOM inter-comparison and what should this inter-comparison include?

Coastal Ocean Discussion Question possibilities:

  • Is pCO2 enough? What are the coastal processes that are most likely to be globally significant, either on the mean or for anthropogenic change?
  • What is needed to integrate open ocean and coastal ocean estimates?
  • Can we infer interannual variability on a global scale from coastal estimates?

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Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.