Ecological Forecasting along N. American Coastlines Workshop

The hybrid workshop Daily to Decadal Ecological Forecasting along North American Coastlines took place April 12-14, 2022 in Woods Hole, MA and online.

Check out the full workshop agenda with linked slidedecks and talk recordings on the workshop website (US CLIVAR website). You can also view the whole playlist of recordings on the OCB YouTube Channel and below.

Session 1: Sources of Regional Predictability Across Timescales
Moderators: Matt Newman and Michelle Gierach
—Timescales and Mechanisms of Marine Ecosystem Predictability Along the US West Coast - Mike Jacox (NOAA/SWFSC and NOAA/PSL)*
—Northern US East Coast - Mike Alexander (NOAA/PSL)
—Arctic and Bering Sea - Mitch Bushuk (UCAR/NOAA GFDL)
—Gulf of Mexico and Southeast US - Ruoying He (NCSU)

April 12, 2022

Session 1 Spotlight Talks (5 mins. each)
—Forecasting ENSO impacts on the California Current Ecosystem planktonic food web - Mark Ohman (SIO)*
—North Pacific decadal predictability of subsurface temperature, oxygen, and the metabolic index - Zhuomin Chen (University of Connecticut)*
—Assessing interannual variability of spring phytoplankton bloom and its drivers in the Gulf of Maine using self organizing maps - Zhengchen Zang (WHOI)*
—Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast skill in the California Current System and its connection to coastal Kelvin waves - Dillon Amaya (NOAA/PSL)
—A dynamically downscaled ensemble of future projections for the California Current System - Mercedes Pozo Buil (UC Santa Cruz)
Planktonic community dynamics on the Northeast US Shelf - Miraflor Santos (WHOI)

Session 1 Q&A and Discussion

April 12, 2022

Session 2: Applications/Timescales
Moderators: Andrew Ross and Victoria Coles
—Fisheries applications at different timescales - Desiree Tommasi (UC Santa Cruz and NOAA/SWFSC)
—Predicting hypoxic conditions - Sam Siedlecki (University of Connecticut)
—HAB prediction - Clarissa Anderson (SIO and SCCOOS)
—Chesapeake Bay application - Marjy Friedrichs (VIMS)

April 12, 2022

Session 2 Spotlight Talks (5 mins. each)
—An optimal precursor of Northeast Pacific marine heatwaves and central Pacific El Niño events - Antonietta Capotondi (University Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL)
—Using AI to forecast paralytic shellfish poison (PSP) in coastal Maine - Johnathan Evanilla (Bigelow Laboratory)
—Predicting harmful algal blooms in the Chesapeake Bay using empirical habitat models - Dante Horemans (VIMS)
—The continuum of Northeast Pacific marine heatwaves and their relationship to the tropical Pacific - Tongtong Xu (NOAA/PSL)
—Seasonal ocean forecasts promote dynamic management of the Dungeness Crab fishery in Washington and Oregon, USA - Emily Norton (UW/CICOES)*

Session 2 Q&A and Discussion

April 12, 2022

Breakout Summaries from Day 1

Session 3: Modeling Capabilities/Challenges
Moderators: Mercedes Pozo Buil and Charlie Stock
—Global physical and BGC modeling and predictions - Matt Long (NCAR and University of Colorado)
—Regional modeling using dynamical downscaling - Liz Drenkard (NOAA/GFDL)
—Empirical and mechanistic modeling of marine ecosystems/fisheries - Colleen Petrik (SIO)
—Statistical/ML approaches in ecological forecasting Ethan Deyle (Boston University)

Session 3 Spotlight Talks (5 mins. each)
—Enhanced dynamical downscaling of global climate projections to regional scales using Machine Learning - Albert Hermann (UW/CICOES)*
—Coupled ecological and economic models to project climate induced changes in estuarine habitat and aquaculture production - Lisa Wainger (UMCES)*
—Effects of eddy-driven plankton patchiness on carbon export - Jessica Garwood (Princeton University)
—Oceanic and atmospheric drivers of post-El-Niño chlorophyll rebound in the Equatorial Pacific - Hyunggyu Lim (Princeton University)
—Impact of a bias correction downscaling method for future projections on the California Current Upwelling System - Mercedes Pozo Buil (UC Santa Cruz)
—Probabilistic extreme SST and marine heatwave forecasts in Chesapeake Bay: A forecast model, skill assessment, and potential value - Andrew Ross (NOAA/GFDL)
—Using deep learning to forecast marine fisheries ecosystems in the North Pacific - Gian Giacomo Navarra (Georgia Tech)

Session 3 Discussion and Q&A

Session 4: Reanalysis Products and Observations
Moderators: Dillon Amaya and Art Miller
—Global physical/biogeochemical reanalyses - Dimitris Menemenlis (NASA JPL)
—Regional reanalyses - Chris Edwards (UC Santa Cruz)
—Status of data collection and integration across regions - Jake Kritzer (NERACOOS)
—Observing technologies bridging global to the coastal ocean - Susan Wijffels (WHOI)
—Satellite observing technologies - Susanne Craig (NASA GSFC)

Session 4 Spotlight Talks (5 mins. each)
—Oceanic drivers of seasonal and interannual winter subsurface temperatures in the Northern California Current System - Sulagna Ray (NOAA NWS)*
—An evaluation of high-resolution ocean reanalyses in the California Current System - Dillon Amaya (NOAA/PSL)
—Seasonal prediction of bottom temperature on the Northeast U.S. continental shelf - Zhuomin Chen (University of Connecticut)
—Combination of numerical modeling and remote sensing at the land-ocean interface - Raphaël Savelli (NASA JPL)

Q&A and Discussion

April 13, 2022

Welcome, day 3 objectives, breakout summaries for breakout session 3

Breakout summaries from Session 4 Observations

Session 5: Discussion of commonalities in future steps that need broader community support

April 14, 2022