changing marine ecosystems :: Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry

Studying marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles in the face of environmental change

Archive for changing marine ecosystems

How do ocean microbes share the job of denitrification?

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, March 31st, 2025

Denitrification is a crucial multi-step process for ecosystem productivity and sustainability because some of its steps can result in the loss of the essential nutrient nitrogen or the production of greenhouse gas nitrous oxide. We do not understand why microbial functional groups conducting different steps of denitrification can coexist in the ocean and why certain groups are more abundant than others.

In a recent study published in PNAS, we uncover ecological mechanisms that govern the coexistence of these microbes. For the microbial groups utilizing different nitrogen substrates, the “stronger” groups rely on the “weaker” groups to feed them nitrogen (with respect to the organic substrates that they compete for), enabling them to coexist. For the groups competing for the same nitrogen substrates, microbes that invest more to build longer denitrification steps win the competition when nitrogen is limiting, but lose the game when nitrogen is repleted and organic carbon is limiting. The spatial and temporal variability of nutrients in the ocean allows these microbes to be observed in the same water mass.

Figure caption: Temporal and spatial heterogeneity in nutrients promotes the coexistence of functionally diverse denitrifiers in the ocean.

These hypothesized coexistence patterns help us predict where and when nitrogen loss and nitrous oxide production may occur. As human activities continue to alter marine nutrient balances, these predictions help us better anticipate ocean responses and design better strategies for mitigating negative anthropogenic impacts on the ocean.

Authors
Xin Sun (Carnegie Institution for Science) @xinsun-putiger.bsky.social
Emily Zakem (Carnegie Institution for Science) @carnegiescience.bsky.social

Persistent bottom trawling impairs seafloor carbon sequestration

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, February 28th, 2025

Bottom trawling, a fishing method that uses heavy nets to catch animals that live on and in the seafloor, could release a large amount of organic carbon from seafloor into the water, that metabolizes to CO₂ then outgasses to the atmosphere. The magnitude of this indirect emission has been heavily debated, with estimates spanning from negligibly small to global climate relevant. Thus, a lack of reliable data and insufficient understanding of the process hinders management of bottom trawling for climate protection.

We set out to solve this problem in two steps. First, we analyzed a large field dataset containing more than 2000 sediment samples from one of the most intensely trawled regions globally, the North Sea. We identified a trawling-induced carbon reduction trend in the data, but only in samples taken in persistently intensively trawled areas with multi-year averaged swept area ratio larger than 1 yr^-1. In less intensely trawled areas, there was no clear effect. In a second step, we applied numerical modelling to understand the processes behind the observed change (Fig. 1). Our model results suggest that bottom trawling annually releases one million tonnes of CO₂ in the North Sea and 30 million tonnes globally. Along with sediment resuspension in the wake of the trawls, the main cause for altered sedimentary carbon storage is the depletion of macrofauna, whose locomotion and burrowing effectively buries freshly deposited carbon into deeper sediment layers. By contrast, macrofauna respiration is reduced owing to trawling-caused mortality, partly offsetting the organic carbon loss. Following a cessation of trawling, the simulated benthic biomass can recover in a few years, but the sediment carbon stock would take several decades to be restored to its natural state.

Figure 1. (a) Benthic–pelagic coupling in a natural system. (b) Processes involved in bottom trawling. (c) Model-estimated source and sink terms of organic carbon in surface sediments in the No-trawling (solid fill, n = 67 annual values for 1950–2016) and trawling (pattern fill, n = 67 ensemble-averaged values for 1950–2016) scenarios of the North Sea. © 2024, Zhang, W. et al., CC BY 4.0.

Marine conservation strategies traditionally favor hard bottoms, such as reefs, that are biologically diverse but accumulate limited amounts of organic carbon. Our results indicate that carbon in muddy sediments is more susceptible to trawling impacts than carbon in sand and point out a need to safeguard muddy habitats for climate protection. Our methods and results might be used in the context of marine spatial planning policies to gauge the potential benefits of limiting or ending bottom trawling within protected areas.

Zhang, W., Porz, L., Yilmaz, R. et al. Long-term carbon storage in shelf sea sediments reduced by intensive bottom trawling. Nat. Geosci. 17, 1268–1276 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01581-4

Authors
Wenyan Zhang (Hereon)
Lucas Porz (Hereon)
Rümeysa Yilmaz (Hereon)
Klaus Wallmann (GEOMAR)
Timo Spiegel (GEOMAR)
Andreas Neumann (Hereon)
Moritz Holtappels (AWI)
Sabine Kasten (AWI)
Jannis Kuhlmann (BUND)
Nadja Ziebarth (BUND)
Bettina Taylor (BUND)
Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann (Hereon)
Frank-Detlef Bockelmann (Hereon)
Ute Daewel (Hereon)
Lea Bernhardt (HWWI)
Corinna Schrum (Hereon)

OA could boost carbon export by appendicularia

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, December 4th, 2024

Gelatinous zooplankton comprise a widespread group of animals that are increasingly recognized as important components of pelagic ecosystems. Historically understudied, we have little knowledge of how much key taxa contribute to carbon fluxes. Likewise, there’s a critical knowledge gap of the impact of ocean change on these taxa.

Appendicularia are the most abundant gelatinous zooplankton in the world oceans. Their population dynamics display typical boom-and-bust characteristics, i.e. high grazing rates in combination with a short generation time and life cycle, results in intense blooms. The most prominent feature of appendicularians is their mucous feeding-structure (“house”), which is produced and discarded several times per day. These sinking houses can contribute substantially to carbon export.

Figure 1: Influence of ocean acidification on the Appendicularia Oikopleura dioica and carbon export. Appendicularian populations display typical boom-and-bust characteristics, resulting in intense blooms. The sinking of appendicularians’ discarded mucous feeding-structure several times per day can contribute substantially to carbon export. Low pH conditions (as expected for future ocean acidification extreme events) enhanced its population growth and contribution to carbon fluxes shown above (red lines/diamonds) vs ambient (blue lines/diamonds).
(Figure sources: Picture by Jean-Marie Bouquet, data plots from Taucher et al. (2024): The appendicularian Oikopleura dioica can enhance carbon export in a high CO2 ocean. Global Change Biology, doi:10.1111/gcb.17020)

A recent study in Global Change Biology quantified how much appendicularia can contribute to carbon export via the biological pump, and how this carbon flux could markedly increase under future ocean acidification and associated extreme pH events.

The findings are based on a large-volume in situ experimental approach that allowed observing natural plankton populations and carbon export under close-to-natural conditions for almost two months. Thereby, O. dioica population dynamics could be directly linked to sediment trap data to quantify the influence of this key species on carbon fluxes at unprecedented detail. During the appendicularia bloom up to 39% of total carbon export was attributed to them.

The most striking finding was that high CO₂ conditions elevated carbon export by appendicularia increased by roughly 50%. Appendicularians physiologically benefit from low pH conditions, giving them a competitive advantage over other zooplankton, allowing them to contribute to a disproportionally large role in carbon export from the ecosystem.

Authors
Jan Taucher (GEOMAR)
Anna Katharina Lechtenbörger (GEOMAR)
Jean-Marie Bouquet (University of Bergen)
Carsten Spisla (GEOMAR)
Tim Boxhammer (GEOMAR)
Fabrizio Minutolo (GEOMAR)
Lennart Thomas Bach (University of Tasmania)
Kai T. Lohbeck (University of Konstanz)
Michael Sswat (GEOMAR)
Isabel Dörner (GEOMAR)
Stefanie M. H. Ismar-Rebitz (GEOMAR)
Eric M. Thompson (University of Bergen)
Ulf Riebesell (GEOMAR)

How tiny teeth and their prey shape ocean ecosystems

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, October 25th, 2024

It has long been suggested that diatoms, microscopic algae enclosed in silica-shells, developed these structures to defend against predators like copepods, small crustaceans that graze diatoms. Copepods evolved silica-lined teeth presumably to counteract this. But actual evidence for how this predator-prey relationship may drive natural selection and evolutionary change has been lacking.

Figure caption: Left: Copepod teeth may suffer damage when feeding on thick-shelled diatoms. The red arrows indicate damage to the copepod tooth, cracks or missing setae. When fed a large diatom, the row of spinose cusps was damaged in all analyzed teeth. Scale bar = 10 µm. Right: A Temora longicornis (ca. 750 µm) copepod tethered to a human hair using super glue, allowing for the capture of high-speed videography to quantify the fraction of cells that eaten or discarded by the copepod. The hair was kindly provided by the first author’s wife.

A recent publication in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences U.S.A. revealed a fascinating dynamic: Copepods that feed on diatoms may suffer significant damage to their teeth, causing them to become more selective eaters. The wear and tear on the copepod teeth were particularly pronounced when copepods consumed thick-shelled diatoms compared to “softer” prey like a dinoflagellate. By glueing copepods to human hair and filming them with a high-speed video camera, the authors found that copepods with damaged teeth were more likely to reject diatoms with thick shells than those with thin shells as prey. Shell thickness varies among and within diatom species and some can respond to copepod presence by increasing shell thickness. A thicker shell, however, may come at a cost to the cell in terms of reduced growth rate or increased sinking speed. This suggests that the evolutionary “arms race” between diatoms and copepods plays a crucial role in shaping and sustaining the diversity of these species.

Diatoms and copepods are important organisms in global biogeochemical cycles and hence understanding this microscopic interaction can help predict shifts in marine ecosystems, potentially affecting nutrient cycles and food webs that support fisheries.

Authors
Fredrik Ryderheim (Technical University of Denmark/University of Copenhagen)
Jørgen Olesen (University of Copenhagen)
Thomas Kiørboe (Technical University of Denmark)

Twitter
@fryderheim (Fredrik Ryderheim)
@OlesenCrust (Jørgen Olesen)
@Thomaskiorboe (Thomas Kiørboe)
@OceanLifeCentre (FR, TK group at DTU)
@NHM_Denmark (Natural History Museum of Denmark, JO employer)

Mixotrophs in the northern North Atlantic

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, April 16th, 2024

Mixotrophs (or mixoplankton) are now accepted as a third group of plankton alongside phytoplankton and zooplankton. Our knowledge of mixotrophs lags far behind that of the other two groups. We currently have only a limited understanding of mixotrophs’ biogeographical distribution across ocean basins, and what environmental factors are associated with their distribution.

The authors of a study recently published in Frontiers in Marine Science reviewed nearly 230,000 individual microplankton samples collected by the North Atlantic Continuous Plankton Recorder program between 1958 and 2015 and calculated the proportion of organisms that are considered mixotrophs in each sample. They classified protist species in the dataset as phytoplankton, mixotrophs, or microzooplankton (heterotrophs), based on existing literature. Taken together across seasonsin shelf waters (depth ≤ 300m), mixotrophs comprise a greater proportion of the microplankton community when nitrate is high and photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) is low (e.g. during the late fall and winter), or when nitrate is low and PAR is moderate to high (e.g. during the summer and early fall). When both nitrate and PAR are high, mixotrophs comprise less of the community compared to phytoplankton. The same pattern was found in offshore waters (depth > 300m), but the key macronutrient was phosphate rather than nitrate. The annual average proportion of mixotrophs in microplankton samples compared to phytoplankton has increased since 1958 in the offshore portion of the study region, with a notable changepoint in 1993; this increasing trend is strongest in the winter season.

This paper is useful for aquatic ecologists who want to integrate mixotrophic plankton into their understanding of marine food webs and biogeochemical cycles. Understanding mixotroph temporal and spatial distributions, as well as the environmental conditions under which they flourish, is imperative to understanding their impact on trophic transfer and biogeochemical cycling.

Authors
Karen Stamieszkin (Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences)
Nicole Millette (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)
Jessica Luo (NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Elizabeth Follett (University of Liverpool)
Nick Record (Bigelow Laboratory of Ocean Science)
David Johns (Marine Biological Association)

Backstory
This work and the collaboration that made it possible was catalyzed by the Eco-DAS XII symposium, attended by Karen Stamieszkin, Nicole Millette, Jessica Luo, and Elizabeth Follett in 2016. Nicole had an idea for an analysis but lacked collaborators, just as she was ready to give up on it, Karen, Jessica, and Elizabeth expressed interest in the project. Karen, Jessica, and Elizabeth each brought a unique perspective that helped make Nicole’s original idea more practical and ensured that the analysis would come to life.

The collaboration that began with this paper lead to the OCB Mixotrophs & Mixotrophy Working Group led by Karen, Jessica, and Nicole, and a successful grant proposal to study mixotrophy awarded to Nicole and Karen by NSF’s Biological Oceanography program. This story shows the importance and power of programs that connect researchers across disciplines, especially in the early stages of their careers.

Ocean iron fertilization may amplify pressures on marine biomass with only a limited climate benefit

Posted by hbenway

· Friday, January 26th, 2024

Amidst a heightened focus on the need for both drastic and immediate emissions reductions and carbon dioxide removal to limit warming to 1.5°C (IPCC, 2022), attention is returning to ocean iron fertilization (OIF) as a means of marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR). First discussed in the early 1990s by John Martin, the concept posits that fertilization of iron-limited marine phytoplankton would lead to enhanced ocean carbon storage via a stimulation of the ocean’s biological carbon pump. However, we lack knowledge about how OIF might operate in concert with an ocean responding to climate change and what the consequences of altered nutrient consumption patterns might be for marine ecosystems, particularly for fisheries in national exclusive economic zones (EEZs). Tagliabue et al. (2023) addressed this in a recent study using state-of-the-art climate, ocean biogeochemical, and ecosystem models under a high-emissions scenario.

The study’s findings suggested that OIF can contribute at most a few 10s of Pg of mCDR under a high-emissions climate change scenario. This is equivalent to fewer than five years of current emissions and is consistent with earlier modeling assessments. This estimate is based on the modeled representation of carbon and iron cycling and a highly efficient OIF strategy that may be difficult to achieve in practice. Enhanced surface uptake of major nutrients due to OIF also led to a drop in global net primary production, in addition to that due to climate change alone. By then coupling a complex model of upper trophic levels, the projected declines in animal biomass due to climate change were amplified by around a third due to OIF, with the most negative impacts projected to occur in the low latitude EEZs, which are already facing increasing pressures due to climate change.

This work highlights feedbacks within the ocean’s biogeochemical and ecological systems in response to OIF that emerged over large spatial and temporal scales. Associated pressures on marine ecosystems pose major challenges for proposed management and monitoring. Restricting OIF to the highest latitudes of the Southern Ocean might mitigate some of these negative effects, but this only further reduces the minor mCDR benefit, suggesting that OIF may not make a significant contribution.

Authors
A. Tagliabue (Univ. Liverpool)
B. S. Twining (Bigelow Laboratory)
N. Barrier & O. Maury (MARBEC, IRD, IFREMER, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, France)
M. Berger & Laurent Bopp (ENS-LMD, Paris, France)

IPCC. Summary for Policymakers. in Climate Change, 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. Shukla, P. R. et al.) (Cambridge University Press, 2022).

New evidence suggests that tiny zooplankton might be the biggest problem with carbon cycling in IPCC climate models

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, December 1st, 2023

The ocean is the most important sink of anthropogenic emissions and is being considered as a medium to manipulate to draw down even more. Essential in the ocean’s role as a natural carbon-sponge is the net production of organic matter by phytoplankton, some of which sinks and is stored for 100s-1000s of years. Successfully simulating this biological carbon pump is essential for projecting any climate scenario, but it appears that massive uncertainties in the way zooplankton consume phytoplankton are compromising predictions of future climate and our assessment of some strategies to deliberately engineer it.

Figure caption. Grazing pressure is largest source of uncertainty for marine carbon cycling in CMIP6 models a) The global and zonal median winter grazing pressure is shown for all models. b) the coefficient of variation across models (std/mean) is largest for grazing pressure compared 14 major terms in the marine carbon cycle.

A new publication in Communications Earth and Environment explains how our poor understanding of zooplankton biases our best projections of marine carbon sequestration. We compared 11 IPCC climate models and found zooplankton grazing is largest source uncertainty in marine carbon cycling. This uncertainty is over three times larger than that of net primary production and is driven by large differences in different models assumptions about the rate at which zooplankton can consume phytoplankton. Yet, very small changes in zooplankton grazing dynamics (roughly only 5% of the full range used across IPCC models) can increase carbon sequestrations by 2 PgC/yr, which is double the maximum theoretical potential of Southern Ocean Iron Fertilization! Moving forward, to move beyond merely treating zooplankton as a closure term, modelers must look towards novel observational constraints on grazing pressure.

Authors
Tyler Rohr, Anthony J. Richardson, Andrew Lenton, Matthew A. Chamberlain, and Elizabeth H. Shadwick

Unveiling the Past and Future of Ocean Acidification: A Novel Data Product covering 10 Global Surface OA Indicators

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, August 23rd, 2023

Accurately predicting future ocean acidification (OA) conditions is crucial for advancing research at regional and global scales, and guiding society’s mitigation and adaptation efforts.

As an update to Jiang et al. 2019, this new model-data fusion product:
1. Utilizes an ensemble of 14 distinct Earth System Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) along with three recent observational ocean carbon data products –>instead of relying on just one model (i.e., the GFDL-ESM2M) this approach reduces potential projection biases in OA indicators.
2. Eliminates model biases using observational data, and model drift with pre-Industrial controls.
3. Covers 10 OA indicators, an expansion from the usual pH, acidity, and buffer capacity.
4. Incorporates the new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).

The use of the most recent observational datasets and a large Earth System Model ensemble is a major step forward in the projection of future surface ocean OA indicators and provides critical information to guide OA mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Figure X. Temporal changes of global average surface ocean OA indicators as reconstructed and projected from 14 CMIP6 Earth System Models after applying adjustments with observational data: (a) fugacity of carbon dioxide (fCO₂), (b) total hydrogen ion content ([H⁺]_total), (c) carbonate ion content ([CO₃^2-]), (d) total dissolved inorganic carbon content (DIC), (e) pH on total scale (pH_T), (f) aragonite saturation state (Ω_arag), (g) total alkalinity content (TA), (h) Revelle Factor (RF), and (i) calcite saturation state (Ω_calc). The asterisk signs on the left-side y-axes show the values in 1750. The numbers along right-side y-axes, i.e., 1-1.9, 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5, indicate the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. These are missing from panel g because the trajectories were more dependent on the model than the SSP.

Authors
Li-Qing Jiang (University Maryland)
John Dunne (NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Brendan R. Carter (University of Washington)
Jerry F. Tjiputra (NORCE Norwegian Research Centre Bjerknes)
Jens Terhaar (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Jonathan D. Sharp (University of Washington)
Are Olsen (University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)
Simone Alin (NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)
Dorothee C. E. Bakker (University of East Anglia)
Richard A. Feely (NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)
Jean-Pierre Gattuso (Sorbonne Université)
Patrick Hogan (NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information)
Tatiana Ilyina (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)
Nico Lange (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research)
Siv K. Lauvset (NORCE Norwegian Research Centre)
Ernie R. Lewis (Brookhaven National Laboratory)
Tomas Lovato (Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)
Julien Palmieri (National Oceanography Centre)
Yeray Santana-Falcón (Université de Toulouse)
Jörg Schwinger (NORCE Norwegian Research Centre)
Roland Séférian (Université de Toulouse)
Gary Strand (US National Center for Atmospheric Research)
Neil Swart (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis)
Toste Tanhua (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research)
Hiroyuki Tsujino (JMA Meteorological Research Institute)
Rik Wanninkhof (NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic Meteorological Laboratory)
Michio Watanabe (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)
Akitomo Yamamoto (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)
Tilo Ziehn (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

Twitter:
@JiangLiqing, @JensTerhaar, @jpGattuso, @j_d_sharp, @AreOlsen, @SimoneAlin, @Dorothee_Bakker, @RFeely, @ilitat, @sivlauvset, @yeraysf, @TosteTanhua,

Severe warming = 15% increase in bacterial respiration: Southern Ocean most impacted

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, March 30th, 2023

The utilization, respiration, and remineralization of organic matter exported from the ocean surface to its depths are key processes in the ocean carbon cycle. Marine heterotrophic Bacteria play a critical role in these activities. However, most three-dimensional (3-D) coupled physical-biogeochemical models do not explicitly include Bacteria as a state variable. Instead, they rely on parameterization to account for the bacteria’s impact on particle flux attenuation.

A recent study examined how bacteria respond to climate change by employing a 3-D coupled ocean biogeochemical model that incorporates explicit bacterial dynamics. The model (CMCC-ESM2) is a part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. The authors first evaluated the reliability of century-scale forecasts (2015-2099) for bacterial stocks and rates in the upper 100 m layer against the compiled measurements from the contemporary period (1988-2011). Next the authors analyzed the predicted trends in bacterial stocks and rates under diverse climate scenarios and explored their association with regional differences in temperature and organic carbon stocks. Three crucial findings were revealed. There is a global-scale decrease in bacterial biomass of 5-10%, with a 3-5% increase in the Southern Ocean (Figure 1). In the Southern Ocean, the rise in semi-labile dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leads to an increase in DOC uptake rates of free-living bacteria; in the northern high and low latitudes, the increase in temperature drives the increase in their DOC uptake rates. Importantly, extreme warming could result in a global increase (up to 15%) and even higher in the Southern Ocean (21% increase) in bacterial respiration (Figure 1), potentially leading to a decline in the biological carbon pump.

This analysis is an unprecedented and early effort to understand the climate-induced changes in bacterial dynamics on a global scale in a systematic manner. This study takes us one step closer to comprehending how bacteria influence the functioning of the biological carbon pump and the distribution of organic carbon pools between surface and deep layers, especially their response to climate change.

Figure 1. Global projections of bacterial carbon stocks and rates during the baseline period (1990-2013) and their changes as anomalies under the most-severe climate change scenario (i.e., SSP5-8.5) relative to the baseline period (2076-2099). The stocks and rates during the baseline period (a, b, c, g, h, i) and their changes as anomalies under the most-severe climate change scenario (d, e, f, j, k, l). All variables are depth-integrated in the upper 100 m. Solid-line contours as standard deviation from averaging over 1990-2013. Anomalies are 2076-2099 average values relative to 1990-2013 average values. Global bacterial biomass has decreased by 5-10%, with a 3-5% increase in the Southern Ocean. However, extreme warming may increase bacterial respiration worldwide, thereby reducing the efficiency of the biological carbon pump. This study provides an early attempt to understand the response of bacteria to climate change and their impact on the distribution of organic carbon in the ocean.

Author
Heather Kim, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Drivers of recent Chesapeake Bay warming

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, August 26th, 2022

Coastal water temperatures have been increasing globally with more frequent marine heat waves threatening marine life and nearshore communities reliant upon these ecosystems. Often, this warming is assumed to be uniform in space and time; however, this is not the case in the Chesapeake Bay, where warming waters play a major role in exacerbating low oxygen levels and indirectly limiting the efficacy of nutrient reduction efforts on land.

New research published in the Journal of the American Water Resources Association combined long-term observations and a hydrodynamic model to quantify the temporal and spatial variability in warming Chesapeake Bay waters, and identify the contributions of different mechanisms driving these historical temperature changes. While winter temperatures have warmed by less than a half a degree over the past 30 years, summer temperatures have warmed by nearly 1.5 °C, with similar increases at the surface and bottom. In cooler months, the atmosphere was the dominant driver of warming throughout the majority of the Bay, but oceanic warming explained more than half of the increased summer temperatures in the southern Bay nearest the Atlantic.

Figure 1: Relative contribution of different factors to warm-month Chesapeake Bay temperature change over the period 1985-2015. Percentages correspond to average main channel contributions for each component.

Warming temperatures have potentially significant implications for the future size of the Chesapeake Bay dead zone, and the marine species directly affected by these low oxygen conditions. Better quantifying warming contributions from the atmosphere, ocean, sea level, and rivers will also help constrain regional temperature projections throughout the estuary. More accurate projections of future Bay temperatures can help coastal managers better understand the potential for invasive species expansion and endemic species loss, impacts to fisheries and aquaculture, and how changes to ecosystem processes may impact coastal communities dependent on a healthy Bay.

Authors:
Kyle E. Hinson (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary)
Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary)
Pierre St-Laurent (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary)
Fei Da (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary)
Raymond G. Najjar (The Pennsylvania State University)

Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

Archive for changing marine ecosystems

Filter by Keyword