Archive for global warming

Sea ice loss amplifies CO2 increase in the Arctic

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Thursday, January 7th, 2021 

Warming and sea ice loss over the past few decades have caused major changes in sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) of the western Arctic Ocean, but detailed temporal variations and trends during this period of rapid climate-driven changes are not well known.

Based on an analysis of an international Arctic pCO2 synthesis data set collected between 1994-2017, the authors of a recent paper published in Nature Climate Change observed that summer sea surface pCO2 in the Canada Basin is increasing at twice the rate of atmospheric CO2 rise. Warming, ice loss and subsequent CO2 uptake in the Basin are amplifying seasonal pCO2 changes, resulting in a rapid long-term increase. Consequently, the summer air-sea CO2 gradient has decreased sharply and may approach zero by the 2030s, which is reducing the basin’s capacity to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. In stark contrast, sea surface pCO2 on the Chukchi Shelf remains low and relatively constant during this time frame, which the authors attribute to increasingly strong biological production in response to higher intrusion of nutrient-rich Pacific Ocean water onto the shelf as a result of increased Bering Strait throughflow. These trends suggest that, unlike the Canada Basin, the Chukchi Shelf will become a larger carbon sink in the future, with implications for the deep ocean carbon cycle and ecosystem.

As Arctic sea ice melting accelerates, more fresh, low-buffer capacity, high-CO2 water will enter the upper layer of the Canada Basin, which may rapidly acidify the surface water, endanger marine calcifying organisms, and disrupt ecosystem function.

Figure. 1: TOP) Sea surface pCO2 trend in the Canada Basin and Chukchi Shelf. The grey dots represent the raw observations of pCO2, black dots are the monthly mean of pCO2 at in situ SST, and red dots are the monthly means of pCO2 normalized to the long-term means of SST. The arrows indicate the statistically significant change in ∆pCO2. BOTTOM) Sea ice-loss amplifying surface water pCO2 in the Canada Basin. Black dots represent the initial condition for pCO2 and DIC at -1.6 ℃. The arrows indicate the processes of warming (red), CO2 uptake from the atmosphere (green), dilution by ice meltwater (blue). The yellow shaded areas indicate the possible seasonal variations of pCO2, which are amplified by the synergistic effect of ice melt, warming and CO2 uptake.

Authors:
Zhangxian Ouyang (University of Delaware, USA),
Di Qi (Third Institute of Oceanography, China),
Liqi Chen (Third Institute of Oceanography, China),
Taro Takahashi† (Columbia University, USA),
Wenli Zhong (Ocean University of China, China),
Michael D. DeGrandpre (University of Montana, USA),
Baoshan Chen (University of Delaware, USA),
Zhongyong Gao (Third Institute of Oceanography, China),
Shigeto Nishino (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan),
Akihiko Murata (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan),
Heng Sun (Third Institute of Oceanography, China),
Lisa L. Robbins (University of South Florida, USA),
Meibing Jin (International Arctic Research Center, USA),
Wei-Jun Cai* (University of Delaware, USA)

Industrial era climate forcing drives multi-century decline in North Atlantic productivity

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Wednesday, October 2nd, 2019 

Phytoplankton respond directly to climate forcing, and due to their central role in global oxygen production and atmospheric carbon sequestration, they are critical components of the Earth’s climate system. There are however few observations detailing past variability in marine primary productivity, particularly over multi-decadal to centennial timescales. This limits our understanding of the long-term impact of climatic forcing on both past and future marine productivity.

Multi-century decline of subarctic Atlantic productivity. From top: standardized (z-score units relative to ad 1958-2016) indices of Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR)-based diatom, dinoflagellate and coccolithophore relative-abundances; North Atlantic [chlorophyll-α] reconstruction from Boyce et al. (2010, Nature); ice core-based [MSA] PC1 productivity index. The “Industrial Onset” range shows the estimated initiation of declining subarctic Atlantic productivity; reconstructed (Rahmstorf et al., 2015, Nat. Clim. Change) and observed sea-surface temperature-based Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (i.e., AMOC) index, alongside 5-year averaged subarctic Atlantic freshwater storage anomalies (relative to A.D. 1955) from Curry and Mauritzen (2005; Science).

Authors of a new study published in Nature used a high-resolution signal of marine biogenic aerosol emissions (methanesulfonic acid, or “MSA”) preserved within twelve Greenland ice cores to reconstruct a ~250-year record of marine productivity variations across the subarctic Atlantic basin, one of the most biologically productive and climatically sensitive regions on Earth. These results provide the most continuous proxy-based reconstruction of basin-scale productivity to date in this region, illuminating the following major findings: (1) subarctic Atlantic marine productivity has declined over the industrial era by as much as 10 ± 7%; (2) the early 19th century onset of declining productivity coincides with the regional onset of industrial-era surface warming, and also strongly covaries with regional sea surface temperatures and basin-scale gyre circulation strength; (3) there is strong decadal- to centennial-scale coherence between northern Atlantic productivity variability and declining Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength, as predicted by prior model-based studies.

Future atmospheric warming is predicted to contribute to accelerating Greenland Ice Sheet runoff, ocean-surface freshening, and AMOC slowdown, suggesting the potential for continued declines in productivity across this dynamic and climatically important region. Such declines will, in turn, have important implications for future maritime economies, global food security, and drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

 

Authors:
Matthew Osman (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Sarah Das (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Luke Trusel (Rowan University)
Matthew Evans (Wheaton College)
Hubertus Fischer (University of Bern)
Mackenzie Griemann (University of California, Irvine)
Sepp Kipfstuhl (Alfred-Wegener-Institute)
Joseph McConnell (Desert Research Institute)
Eric Saltzman (University of California, Irvine)

 

Figure references:
Boyce, D. G., Lewis, M. R. & Worm, B. (2010) Global phytoplankton decline over the past century. Nature 466, 591–596.

Curry, R. & Mauritzen, C. (2005) Dilution of the northern North Atlantic Ocean in recent decades. Science 308, 1772–1774.

Rahmstorf, S. et al. (2015) Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 475–480.

Regional circulation changes and a growing atmospheric CO2 concentration drive accelerated anthropogenic carbon uptake in the South Pacific

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 

About one tenth of human CO2 emissions are currently being taken up by the Pacific Ocean, which makes the seawater more corrosive to the calcium carbonate shells and skeletons of the plants and animals that live there. Now, thanks to hard work by international teams of scientists from the Global Ocean Ship-based Hydrographic Investigations Program (GO-SHIP), there are decades of data, enough to test how much this anthropogenic CO2 accumulation varies throughout the Pacific Ocean and regionally on the timescales of decades.

 

Figure caption: Map of the concentration of human-emitted CO2 along the sections where data were available from more than one decade, estimated for the year 2015.

Using a new take on an old technique, along with a wide variety of repeat biogeochemical measurements, a study in Biogeochemical Cycles revealed that Pacific anthropogenic CO2 accumulation increased from the 1995-2005 decade to the 2005-2015 decade. While the magnitude of the decadal increase was consistent with increases in human CO2 emissions over this period for most of the Pacific, the rate of change was greater than expected in the South Pacific subtropical gyre. The authors suggest that recent increases in circulation in the gyre region could have delivered an unexpectedly large amount of anthropogenic CO2-laden seawater from the surface to the ocean interior. Programs like GO-SHIP will continue to be critical for tracking the fate of human CO2 emissions and associated feedbacks on climate and marine ecosystems.

 

Authors:
B. R. Carter (Univ. Washington and PMEL)
R. A. Feely, G. C. Johnson, J. L. Bullister (PMEL)
R. Wanninkhof (NOAA AOML)
S. Kouketsu, A. Murata (JAMSTEC
R. E. Sonnerup, S. Mecking (Univ. Washington)
P. C. Pardo (Univ. Tasmania)
C. L. Sabine (Univ. Hawai‘i, Mānoa)
B. M. Sloyan, B. Tilbrook (CSIRO, Australia)
K. Speer (Florida State University
L. D. Talley (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
F. J. Millero (Univ. Miami)
S. E. Wijffels (CSIRO and WHOI)
A. M. Macdonald (WHOI)
N. Gruber (ETH Zurich)

Improved method to identify and reduce uncertainties in marine carbon cycle predictions

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Wednesday, September 26th, 2018 

Improved method to identify and reduce uncertainties in marine carbon cycle predictions

How well do contemporary Earth System Models (ESMs) represent the dynamics of the modern day ocean? Often we question the fidelity of biological and chemical processes represented in these ESMs. The fact is representations of biogeochemical processes in models are plagued with some degree of uncertainties; therefore, identifying and reducing such deficiencies could advance ESM development and improve model predictions.

An overview of several models with respect to each of the variables, using absolute (left) and relative (right) scores to determine the degree of uncertainty in relation to referenced datasets.

 

A recent publication in Atmosphere described the ongoing efforts to develop the International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) package to evaluate ESM skill sets in simulating marine biogeochemical variables and processes. Model performances were scored based on how well they captured the distribution and variability contained in high-quality observational datasets. The authors highlighted systematic model–data benchmarking as a technique to identify ocean model deficiencies, which could provide a pathway to improving representations of sub-grid-scale parameterizations. They have scaled the absolute score from zero to unity, where the red color tends toward zero to quantify weaknesses in the skill set of a particular model in capturing values from the observational datasets. On the other side of the spectrum, the green color signifies considerable temporal and spatial overlap between the predicted and the observational values. The authors also present the standard score to show the relative scores within two standard deviations from the model mean. The benchmarking package was employed in the published study to assess marine biogeochemical process representations, with a focus on surface ocean concentrations and sea–air fluxes of dimethylsulfide (DMS). The production and emission of natural aerosols remain one of the major limitations in estimating global radiative forcing. Appropriate representation of aerosols in the marine boundary layer (MBL) is essential to reduce uncertainty and provide reliable information on offsets to global warming. Results show that model–data biases increased as DMS enters the MBL, with models over-predicting sea surface concentrations in the productive region of the eastern tropical Pacific by almost a factor of two and the sea–air fluxes by a factor of three. The associated uncertainties with oceanic carbon cycle processes may be additive or antagonistic; in any case, a constructive effort to disentangle the subtleties begins with an objective benchmarking effort, which is focused specifically on marine biogeochemical processes. The tool in development will ensure we satisfy some of the Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) benchmarking needs for the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).

 

Authors:
Oluwaseun Ogunro (ORNL)
Scott Elliott (LANL)
Oliver Wingenter (New Mexico Tech)
Clara Deal (University of Alaska)
Weiwei Fu (UC Irvine)
Nathan Collier (ORNL)
Forrest M. Hoffman (ORNL)

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