Archive for global warming

Industrial era climate forcing drives multi-century decline in North Atlantic productivity

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Wednesday, October 2nd, 2019 

Phytoplankton respond directly to climate forcing, and due to their central role in global oxygen production and atmospheric carbon sequestration, they are critical components of the Earth’s climate system. There are however few observations detailing past variability in marine primary productivity, particularly over multi-decadal to centennial timescales. This limits our understanding of the long-term impact of climatic forcing on both past and future marine productivity.

Multi-century decline of subarctic Atlantic productivity. From top: standardized (z-score units relative to ad 1958-2016) indices of Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR)-based diatom, dinoflagellate and coccolithophore relative-abundances; North Atlantic [chlorophyll-α] reconstruction from Boyce et al. (2010, Nature); ice core-based [MSA] PC1 productivity index. The “Industrial Onset” range shows the estimated initiation of declining subarctic Atlantic productivity; reconstructed (Rahmstorf et al., 2015, Nat. Clim. Change) and observed sea-surface temperature-based Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (i.e., AMOC) index, alongside 5-year averaged subarctic Atlantic freshwater storage anomalies (relative to A.D. 1955) from Curry and Mauritzen (2005; Science).

Authors of a new study published in Nature used a high-resolution signal of marine biogenic aerosol emissions (methanesulfonic acid, or “MSA”) preserved within twelve Greenland ice cores to reconstruct a ~250-year record of marine productivity variations across the subarctic Atlantic basin, one of the most biologically productive and climatically sensitive regions on Earth. These results provide the most continuous proxy-based reconstruction of basin-scale productivity to date in this region, illuminating the following major findings: (1) subarctic Atlantic marine productivity has declined over the industrial era by as much as 10 ± 7%; (2) the early 19th century onset of declining productivity coincides with the regional onset of industrial-era surface warming, and also strongly covaries with regional sea surface temperatures and basin-scale gyre circulation strength; (3) there is strong decadal- to centennial-scale coherence between northern Atlantic productivity variability and declining Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength, as predicted by prior model-based studies.

Future atmospheric warming is predicted to contribute to accelerating Greenland Ice Sheet runoff, ocean-surface freshening, and AMOC slowdown, suggesting the potential for continued declines in productivity across this dynamic and climatically important region. Such declines will, in turn, have important implications for future maritime economies, global food security, and drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

 

Authors:
Matthew Osman (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Sarah Das (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Luke Trusel (Rowan University)
Matthew Evans (Wheaton College)
Hubertus Fischer (University of Bern)
Mackenzie Griemann (University of California, Irvine)
Sepp Kipfstuhl (Alfred-Wegener-Institute)
Joseph McConnell (Desert Research Institute)
Eric Saltzman (University of California, Irvine)

 

Figure references:
Boyce, D. G., Lewis, M. R. & Worm, B. (2010) Global phytoplankton decline over the past century. Nature 466, 591–596.

Curry, R. & Mauritzen, C. (2005) Dilution of the northern North Atlantic Ocean in recent decades. Science 308, 1772–1774.

Rahmstorf, S. et al. (2015) Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 475–480.

Regional circulation changes and a growing atmospheric CO2 concentration drive accelerated anthropogenic carbon uptake in the South Pacific

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 

About one tenth of human CO2 emissions are currently being taken up by the Pacific Ocean, which makes the seawater more corrosive to the calcium carbonate shells and skeletons of the plants and animals that live there. Now, thanks to hard work by international teams of scientists from the Global Ocean Ship-based Hydrographic Investigations Program (GO-SHIP), there are decades of data, enough to test how much this anthropogenic CO2 accumulation varies throughout the Pacific Ocean and regionally on the timescales of decades.

 

Figure caption: Map of the concentration of human-emitted CO2 along the sections where data were available from more than one decade, estimated for the year 2015.

Using a new take on an old technique, along with a wide variety of repeat biogeochemical measurements, a study in Biogeochemical Cycles revealed that Pacific anthropogenic CO2 accumulation increased from the 1995-2005 decade to the 2005-2015 decade. While the magnitude of the decadal increase was consistent with increases in human CO2 emissions over this period for most of the Pacific, the rate of change was greater than expected in the South Pacific subtropical gyre. The authors suggest that recent increases in circulation in the gyre region could have delivered an unexpectedly large amount of anthropogenic CO2-laden seawater from the surface to the ocean interior. Programs like GO-SHIP will continue to be critical for tracking the fate of human CO2 emissions and associated feedbacks on climate and marine ecosystems.

 

Authors:
B. R. Carter (Univ. Washington and PMEL)
R. A. Feely, G. C. Johnson, J. L. Bullister (PMEL)
R. Wanninkhof (NOAA AOML)
S. Kouketsu, A. Murata (JAMSTEC
R. E. Sonnerup, S. Mecking (Univ. Washington)
P. C. Pardo (Univ. Tasmania)
C. L. Sabine (Univ. Hawai‘i, Mānoa)
B. M. Sloyan, B. Tilbrook (CSIRO, Australia)
K. Speer (Florida State University
L. D. Talley (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
F. J. Millero (Univ. Miami)
S. E. Wijffels (CSIRO and WHOI)
A. M. Macdonald (WHOI)
N. Gruber (ETH Zurich)

Improved method to identify and reduce uncertainties in marine carbon cycle predictions

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Wednesday, September 26th, 2018 

Improved method to identify and reduce uncertainties in marine carbon cycle predictions

How well do contemporary Earth System Models (ESMs) represent the dynamics of the modern day ocean? Often we question the fidelity of biological and chemical processes represented in these ESMs. The fact is representations of biogeochemical processes in models are plagued with some degree of uncertainties; therefore, identifying and reducing such deficiencies could advance ESM development and improve model predictions.

An overview of several models with respect to each of the variables, using absolute (left) and relative (right) scores to determine the degree of uncertainty in relation to referenced datasets.

 

A recent publication in Atmosphere described the ongoing efforts to develop the International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) package to evaluate ESM skill sets in simulating marine biogeochemical variables and processes. Model performances were scored based on how well they captured the distribution and variability contained in high-quality observational datasets. The authors highlighted systematic model–data benchmarking as a technique to identify ocean model deficiencies, which could provide a pathway to improving representations of sub-grid-scale parameterizations. They have scaled the absolute score from zero to unity, where the red color tends toward zero to quantify weaknesses in the skill set of a particular model in capturing values from the observational datasets. On the other side of the spectrum, the green color signifies considerable temporal and spatial overlap between the predicted and the observational values. The authors also present the standard score to show the relative scores within two standard deviations from the model mean. The benchmarking package was employed in the published study to assess marine biogeochemical process representations, with a focus on surface ocean concentrations and sea–air fluxes of dimethylsulfide (DMS). The production and emission of natural aerosols remain one of the major limitations in estimating global radiative forcing. Appropriate representation of aerosols in the marine boundary layer (MBL) is essential to reduce uncertainty and provide reliable information on offsets to global warming. Results show that model–data biases increased as DMS enters the MBL, with models over-predicting sea surface concentrations in the productive region of the eastern tropical Pacific by almost a factor of two and the sea–air fluxes by a factor of three. The associated uncertainties with oceanic carbon cycle processes may be additive or antagonistic; in any case, a constructive effort to disentangle the subtleties begins with an objective benchmarking effort, which is focused specifically on marine biogeochemical processes. The tool in development will ensure we satisfy some of the Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) benchmarking needs for the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).

 

Authors:
Oluwaseun Ogunro (ORNL)
Scott Elliott (LANL)
Oliver Wingenter (New Mexico Tech)
Clara Deal (University of Alaska)
Weiwei Fu (UC Irvine)
Nathan Collier (ORNL)
Forrest M. Hoffman (ORNL)

Filter by Keyword

acidification air-sea interactions allometry AMOC Antarctica anthropogenic carbon aragonite saturation aragonite saturation state arctic argo arsenic Atlantic Atlantic modeling atmospheric CO2 atmospheric nitrogen deposition autonomous observing autonomous platforms bacteria BATS bcg-argo biogeochemical cycles biogeochemical models biological pump biological uptake biophysics bloom blooms blue carbon bottom water boundary layer CaCO3 calcification calcite carbon-climate feedback carbon cycle carbon sequestration Caribbean CCS changing marine ecosystems changing ocean chemistry chemoautotroph chl a chlorophyll circulation climate change CO2 coastal and estuarine coastal carbon fluxes coastal ocean coastal oceans cobalt community composition conservation cooling effect copepod coral reefs currents DCM decomposers deep convection deep ocean deep sea coral depth diatoms DIC dimethylsulfide DOC domoic acid dust earth system models eddy Education Ekman transport emissions ENSO enzyme equatorial regions estuarine and coastal carbon fluxes estuary EXPORTS filter feeders filtration rates fish Fish carbon fisheries floats fluid dynamics fluorescence food web food webs forams freshening frontal zone future oceans geochemistry geoengineering GEOTRACES glaciers gliders global carbon budget global warming go-ship greenhouse gas Greenland Gulf of Maine Gulf of Mexico Gulf Stream gyre harmful algal bloom high latitude human impact hydrothermal hypoxia ice age ice ages ice cores ice cover industrial onset iron iron fertilization isotopes katabatic winds kelvin waves kuroshio larvaceans lateral transport lidar ligands mangroves marine boundary layer marine snowfall marshes meltwater mesopelagic mesoscale metagenome metals methane microbes microlayer microorganisms microscale microzooplankton midwater mixed layer mixotrophy modeling models mode water formation molecular diffusion MPT multi-decade NASA net community production new technology nitrogen nitrogen fixation nitrous oxide north atlantic north pacific nutricline nutrient budget nutrient cycling nutrient flux nutrient limitation nutrients OA ocean-atmosphere ocean acidification ocean carbon uptake & storage ocean carbon uptake and storage ocean color ocean observatories ODZ oligotrophic omics OMZ open ocean optics organic particles overturning circulation oxygen pacific pacific ocean paleoceanography particle flux particulate organic carbon pCO2 PDO pH phosphorus photosynthesis physical processes physiology phytoplankton plankton POC polar regions pollutants prediction primary production primary productivity productivity pteropods radioisotopes remineralization remote sensing residence time resource management respiration rivers Rossby waves Ross Sea ROV salinity salt marsh satellite scale seafloor seagrass sea ice sea level rise seasonal patterns sediments sensors shelf system ship-based observations sinking particles size SOCCOM sources and sinks southern ocean south pacific speciation species oscillations subduction submesoscale subpolar subtropical subtropical gyres subtropical mode water surface ocean surface water teleconnections temperature thermohaline thorium tidal time-series time of emergence top predators trace element trace elements trace metals trait-based transfer efficiency transient features trophic transfer tropical turbulence twilight zone upper ocean upper water column upwelling US CLIVAR validation velocity gradient ventilation vertical flux vertical migration vertical transport vertical transport/flux western boundary currents wetlands winter mixing zooplankton

Copyright © 2020 - OCB Project Office, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 266 Woods Hole Rd, MS #25, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA Phone: 508-289-2838  •  Fax: 508-457-2193  •  Email: ocb_news@us-ocb.org

link to nsflink to noaalink to WHOI

Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.