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Drivers of recent Chesapeake Bay warming

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, August 26th, 2022

Coastal water temperatures have been increasing globally with more frequent marine heat waves threatening marine life and nearshore communities reliant upon these ecosystems. Often, this warming is assumed to be uniform in space and time; however, this is not the case in the Chesapeake Bay, where warming waters play a major role in exacerbating low oxygen levels and indirectly limiting the efficacy of nutrient reduction efforts on land.

New research published in the Journal of the American Water Resources Association combined long-term observations and a hydrodynamic model to quantify the temporal and spatial variability in warming Chesapeake Bay waters, and identify the contributions of different mechanisms driving these historical temperature changes. While winter temperatures have warmed by less than a half a degree over the past 30 years, summer temperatures have warmed by nearly 1.5 °C, with similar increases at the surface and bottom. In cooler months, the atmosphere was the dominant driver of warming throughout the majority of the Bay, but oceanic warming explained more than half of the increased summer temperatures in the southern Bay nearest the Atlantic.

Figure 1: Relative contribution of different factors to warm-month Chesapeake Bay temperature change over the period 1985-2015. Percentages correspond to average main channel contributions for each component.

Warming temperatures have potentially significant implications for the future size of the Chesapeake Bay dead zone, and the marine species directly affected by these low oxygen conditions. Better quantifying warming contributions from the atmosphere, ocean, sea level, and rivers will also help constrain regional temperature projections throughout the estuary. More accurate projections of future Bay temperatures can help coastal managers better understand the potential for invasive species expansion and endemic species loss, impacts to fisheries and aquaculture, and how changes to ecosystem processes may impact coastal communities dependent on a healthy Bay.

Authors:
Kyle E. Hinson (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary)
Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary)
Pierre St-Laurent (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary)
Fei Da (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary)
Raymond G. Najjar (The Pennsylvania State University)

Nutrient management improves hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay despite record-breaking precipitation and warming

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, August 26th, 2022

Hypoxia is currently one of the greatest threats to coastal and estuarine ecosystems around the world, and this threat is projected to get worse as waters warm and human populations continue to increase. Over the past 35-years, a massive effort has been underway to decrease hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay by reducing nutrient input from land. Despite this effort, record-breaking precipitation in 2018-2019 fueled particularly large hypoxic volumes in the Bay, calling into question the efficacy of management actions.

Figure 1. The number of days of additional hypoxia (O2 < 3 mg L^-1) that would have occurred in the Chesapeake Bay if the 35 years of nutrient reductions never occurred, as calculated by differences between a realistic numerical model simulation and one with 1985 nitrogen levels. This management effort has had the greatest impact at the northern and southern edges of the hypoxia in the Bay, where there would have been an additional 60-90 days of O2 < 3 mg L^-1 if nutrient reductions never occurred.

In a recent paper published in Science of the Total Environment, researchers used empirical and numerical modeling to quantify the impact of nutrient management efforts on hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay. Results suggest that if the nutrient reduction efforts beginning in 1985 had not taken place, hypoxia would have been ~50–120% greater during the average discharge years of 2016–2017 and ~20–50% greater during the wet years of 2018–2019. The management impact was most pronounced in regions of the Bay where the hypoxia season would have been 60-90 days longer if nutrient reductions did not occur (Figure 1).

Although these results suggest that management has reduced hypoxic conditions in the Bay, additional analysis revealed that warming temperatures have already offset 6-34% of this improvement. This highlights the importance of factoring in climate change when setting future management goals.

Figure 2. The number of days of additional hypoxia (O2 < 3 mg L^-1) that would have occurred in the Chesapeake Bay if the 35 years of nutrient reductions never occurred, as calculated by differences between a realistic numerical model simulation and one with 1985 nitrogen levels. This management effort has had the greatest impact at the northern and southern edges of the hypoxia in the Bay, where there would have been an additional 60-90 days of O2 < 3 mg L^-1 if nutrient reductions never occurred.

Authors:
Luke T. Frankel (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary)
Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary)
Pierre St-Laurent (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary)
Aaron J. Bever (Anchor QEA)
Romuald N. Lipcius (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary)
Gopal Bhatt (Pennsylvania State University; Chesapeake Bay Program)
Gary W. Shenk (USGS; Chesapeake Bay Program)

Why are sand lance embryos so sensitive to future high CO2-oceans?

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, August 26th, 2022

Two decades of ocean acidification experiments have shown that elevated CO₂ can affect many traits in fish early life stages. Only few species, however, show direct CO₂-induced survival reductions. This may partly reflect a bias in our current empirical record, which is dominated by species from nearshore tropical-to-temperate environments. There, these organisms already experience highly variable CO₂ conditions. In contrast, fishes from more offshore habitats, especially at higher latitudes are adapted to more CO₂-stable conditions, which could make them more CO₂-sensitive. This group of fishes is still underrepresented in the literature, despite its enormous commercial and ecological importance.

To help address this gap, we conducted new experimental work on northern sand lance Ammodytes dubius, a key forage fish on offshore Northwest Atlantic sand banks with trophic links to more than 70 different predator species of fish, squid, seabirds, and marine mammals. On Stellwagen Bank in the southern Gulf of Maine, sand lance are the ‘backbone’ of the eponymous National Marine Sanctuary.

We followed up on the intriguing findings of a pilot study a few years ago. Over two years and two trials, we again produced embryos from wild, Stellwagen Bank spawners and reared them at several pCO₂ levels (~400−2000 μatm) in combination with static and dynamic temperatures. Again, we observed consistently large CO₂-induced reductions in hatching success (-23% at 1,000 µatm, -61% at ~2,000 µatm), but this time the effects were temperature-independent.

Intriguingly, we again saw that many sand lance embryos at high CO₂ treatments did not merely arrest in their development (indicative of acidosis), but appeared to develop fully to hatch but were somehow incapable of doing so. We show several lines of evidence supporting the hypothesis that CO₂ directly impairs hatching in this species. Most fish rely on hatching enzymes that help embryos break the chorion (egg shell), but these ubiquitous enzymes may work less efficiently under high CO₂, low pH conditions.

For additional context, we also derived long-term, seasonal pCO₂ projections specifically for Stellwagen Bank, which together with the experimental data suggested that increasing CO₂ levels alone could reduce sand lance hatching success to 71% of contemporary levels by the year 2100.

We believe that the importance of sand lances as forage fishes across most northern hemisphere shelf ecosystem warrants a strategic effort of OA researchers to begin testing other sand lance species or populations to understand the magnitude of the problem and its underlying mechanisms.

Authors:
Hannes Baumann (University of Connecticut)
Lucas Jones (University of Connecticut)
Christopher Murray (University of Washington)
Samantha Siedlecki (University of Connecticut)
Michael Alexander (NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory)
Emma Cross (Southern Connecticut State University)

How does the competition between phytoplankton and bacteria for iron alter ocean biogeochemical cycles?

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, August 26th, 2022

Free-living bacteria play a key role in cycling essential biogeochemical resources in the ocean, including iron, via their uptake, transformation, and release of organic matter throughout the water column. Bacteria process half of the ocean’s primary production, remineralize dissolved organic matter, and re-direct otherwise lost organic matter to higher trophic levels. For these reasons, it is crucial to understand what factors limit the growth of bacteria and how bacteria activities impact global ocean biogeochemical cycles.

In a recent study, Pham and colleagues used a global ocean ecosystem model to dive into how iron limits the growth of free-living marine bacteria, how bacteria modulate ocean iron cycling, and the consequences to marine ecosystems of the competition between bacteria and phytoplankton for iron.

Figure 1: (a) Iron limitation status of bacteria in December, January, and February (DJF) in the surface ocean. Low values (in blue color = close to zero) mean that iron is the limiting factor for the growth of bacteria; (b) Bacterial iron consumption in the upper 120m of the ocean and (c) Changes (anomalies) in export carbon production when bacteria have a high requirement for iron.

Through a series of computer simulations performed in the global ocean ecosystem model, the authors found that iron is a limiting factor for bacterial growth in iron-limited regions in the Southern Ocean, the tropical, and the subarctic Pacific due to the high iron requirement and iron uptake capability of bacteria. Bacteria act as an iron sink in the upper ocean due to their significant iron consumption, a rate comparable to phytoplankton. The competition between bacteria and phytoplankton for iron alters phytoplankton bloom dynamics, ocean carbon export, and the availability of dissolved organic carbon needed for bacterial growth. These results suggest that earth system models that omit bacteria ignore an important organism modulating biogeochemical responses of the ocean to future changes.

Authors:
Anh Le-Duy Pham (Laboratoire d’Océanographie et de Climatologie: Expérimentation et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), IPSL, CNRS/UPMC/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France)
Olivier Aumont (Laboratoire d’Océanographie et de Climatologie: Expérimentation et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), IPSL, CNRS/UPMC/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France)
Lavenia Ratnarajah (University of Liverpool, United Kingdom)
Alessandro Tagliabue (University of Liverpool, United Kingdom)

Carbon fluxes in the coastal ocean: Synthesis, boundary processes and future trends

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, August 26th, 2022

A vital part of mitigating climate change is the coastal and open ocean carbon sink, without this, it is not possible to meet the target set by the Paris Agreement. More research is needed to better understand the ocean carbon cycle and its future role in the uptake of anthropogenic carbon. A review provides an analysis of the current qualitative and quantitative understanding of the coastal ocean carbon cycle at regional to global scales, with a focus on the air-sea CO₂ exchange. It includes novel findings obtained using the full breadth of methodological approaches, from observation-based studies and advanced statistical methods to conceptual and theoretical frameworks, and numerical modeling.

Figure 1: Updated sea-air CO₂ flux density (mol C m⁻² year⁻¹) in the global coastal oceans that reveals that the global coastal ocean is an integrated CO₂ sink with the strongest CO₂ uptake at high latitudes. The challenges associated with identifying current and projected responses of the coastal ocean and it source/sink role in the global carbon budget require observational networks that are coordinated and integrated with modeling programs; development of this capability is a priority for the ocean carbon research and management communities.

Based on a new quantitative synthesis of air-sea CO₂ exchange, this study yields an estimate for the globally integrated coastal ocean CO₂ flux of −0.25 ± 0.05 Pg C year⁻¹, with polar and subpolar regions accounting for most of the CO₂ removal (>90%). A framework that classifies river-dominated ocean margin (RiOMar) and ocean-dominated margin (OceMar) systems is used in to conceptualize coastal carbon cycle processes. Ocean carbon models are reviewed in terms of the ability to simulate key processes and project future changes in different continental shelf regions. Concurrent trends and changes in the land-ocean-atmosphere coupled system introduce large uncertainties into projections of ocean carbon fluxes, in particular into defining the role of the coastal carbon sink and its evolution, both of which are of fundamental importance to climate science and climate policies developed before and after achievement of net-zero CO₂ emissions. The major gaps and challenges identified for current coastal ocean carbon research have important implications for climate and sustainability policies. This study is a contribution to the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Phase 2 supported by the Global Carbon Project.

Authors:
M. H. Dai, J. Z. Su, Y. Y. Z., E. E. Hofmann, Z. M. Cao, W.-J. Cai, J. P. Gan, F. Lacroix, G. G. Laruelle, F. F. Meng, J. D. Müller, P. A.G. Regnier, G. Z. Wang, and Z. X. Wang

What drives decadal changes in the Chesapeake Bay carbonate system?

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022

Understanding decadal changes in the coastal carbonate system (CO₂-system) is essential for predicting how the health of these waters is affected by anthropogenic drivers, such as changing atmospheric conditions and terrestrial inputs. However, studies that quantify the relative impacts of these drivers are lacking.

A recent study in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans identified the primary drivers of acidification in the Chesapeake Bay over the past three decades. The authors used a three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemistry model to quantify the relative impacts on the Bay CO₂-system from increases in atmospheric CO₂, temperature, oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations, terrestrial loadings of total alkalinity (TA) and DIC, as well as decreases in terrestrial nutrient inputs. Decadal changes in the surface CO₂-system in the Chesapeake Bay exhibit large spatial and seasonal variability due to the combination of influences from the land, ocean and atmosphere. In the upper Bay, increased riverine TA and DIC from the Susquehanna River have increased surface pH, with other drivers only contributing to decadal changes that are one to two orders of magnitude smaller. In the mid- and lower Bay, higher atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and reduced nutrient loading are the two most critical drivers and have nearly equally reduced surface pH in the summer. These decadal changes in surface pH show significant seasonal variability with the greatest magnitude generally aligning with the spring and summer shellfish production season (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Overall changes in modeled surface pH (ΔpH_all) due to all global and terrestrial drivers combined over the past 30 years (i.e., 2015–2019 relative to 1985–1989). ΔpH_all includes changes in surface pH due to increased atmospheric CO2, increased atmospheric thermal forcing, increased oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations, decreased riverine nitrate concentrations, decreased riverine organic nitrogen concentrations, and increased riverine total alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations.

These results indicate that a number of global and terrestrial drivers play crucial roles in coastal acidification. The combined effects of the examined drivers suggest that calcifying organisms in coastal surface waters are likely facing faster decreasing rates of pH than those in open ocean ecosystems. Decreases in surface pH associated with nutrient reductions highlight that the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem is returning to a more natural condition, e.g., a condition when anthropogenic nutrient input from the watershed was lower. However, increased atmospheric CO₂ is simultaneously accelerating the rate of change in pH, exerting increased stress on estuarine calcifying organisms. For ecosystems such as the Chesapeake Bay where nutrient loading is already being managed, controlling the emissions of anthropogenic CO₂ globally becomes increasingly important to decelerate the rate of acidification and to relieve the stress on estuarine calcifying organisms. Future observational and modeling studies are needed to further investigate how the decadal trends in the Chesapeake Bay CO₂-system may vary with depth. These efforts will improve our current understanding of long-term change in coastal carbonate systems and their impacts on the shellfish industry.

Authors:
Fei Da (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary, USA)
Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary, USA)
Pierre St-Laurent (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary, USA)
Elizabeth H. Shadwick (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Australia)
Raymond G. Najjar (The Pennsylvania State University, USA)
Kyle E. Hinson (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary, USA)

Unmixing deep sea sedimentary records identifies sensitivity of marine calcifying zooplankton to abrupt warming and ocean acidification in the past

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022

Ocean acidification and rising temperatures have led to concerns about how calcifying organisms foundational to marine ecosystems, will be affected in the near future. We often look to analogous abrupt climate change events in Earth’s geologic past to inform our predictions of these future communities. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) is an apt analog for modern climate change. The PETM was a global warming and ocean acidification event driven by geologically abrupt changes to the global carbon cycle approximately 56 million years ago. Much of what we know about the PETM is from the study of deep sea sedimentary records and the microfossils within them. However, these records can experience intense sediment mixing—from bottom water currents and burrowing by organisms living along the seafloor—which can blur or distort the primary climate and ecological signals in these paleorecords.

PETM corrected foram graphic - see caption for detail

Figure 1. A) Frequency distribution of single-shell stable carbon isotope (δ13C) values for planktic foraminiferal shells from a deep sea sedimentary PETM record from the equatorial Pacific (n = 548). Note that 50% of shells measured record distinctly PETM values, while 49.5% record distinctly pre-PETM values. B) Comparison of diversity metric (Shannon-H) between the isotopically filtered (i.e., unmixed) and unfiltered (i.e., mixed) planktic foraminiferal assemblages.

A recent study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences used geochemical signatures measured from individual microfossil shells of planktic foraminifera (surface-dwelling marine calcareous zooplankton) to deconvolve the effects of sediment mixing on a deep sea PETM record from the equatorial Pacific. Use of this “isotopic filtering” (unmixing) method revealed that nearly 50% of shells in the PETM interval were reworked contaminants that lived before the global warming event (Figure 1A). The identification and removal of these older shells from fossil census counts drastically changed interpretations of how these organisms responded to the PETM. Prior interpretations assumed that planktic foraminiferal communities living near the equator diversified during the PETM. However, by deconvolving the effects of sediment mixing on the same equatorial deep sea record, researchers found that these communities actually suffered an abrupt decrease in diversity at the onset of the PETM (Figure 1B). This decrease is likely due to several taxa migrating towards the poles to escape the extreme heat of the tropics and lower oxygen conditions found at deeper water depths (i.e., thermocline) during the PETM. Additionally, some taxa may have undergone morphological changes, signaling reduced calcification, in response to extreme acidifying conditions. Today, anthropogenic carbon emission rates are ~10 times faster than the carbon cycling perturbation that triggered the PETM. Although planktic foraminifera and other key zooplankton survived the PETM, these communities suffered at the hands of extreme sea surface temperatures and acidifying waters, and may not be able to cope the rate of environmental changes in our ocean over the coming centuries.

Authors:
Brittany N. Hupp (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
D. Clay Kelly (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
John W. Williams (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

Predators Set Range for the Ocean’s Most Abundant Phytoplankton

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, April 1st, 2022

Prochlorococcus is the world’s smallest phytoplankton (microscopic plant-like organisms) and the most numerous, with more than ten septillion individuals. This tiny plankton lives ubiquitously in warm, blue, tropical waters but is conspicuously absent in more polar regions. The prevailing theory was the cold: Prochlorococcus doesn’t grow at low temperatures. In a recent paper, the authors argue ecological control, in particular, predation by zooplankton. Cold polar waters are greener because they contain more nutrients, leading to more life and more organic matter production. This production feeds more and larger heterotrophic bacteria, who then feed larger predators—specifically the same zooplankton that consume Prochlorococcus. If the shared zooplankton increases enough, it will consume Prochlorococus faster than it can grow, causing the species to collapse at higher latitudes. These results show that an understanding of both ecology and temperature is required to predict how these ecosystems will shift in a warming ocean.

Figure 1: Surface populations of Prochlorococcus collapse (dashed lines) moving northward from Hawaii as seen in transects (transect line shown in red on map, lower left) from cruises in April 2016 (black dots) and September 2017 (green triangles). This collapse of the Prochlorococcus emerges in dynamical computer models (lower right, color indicates Prochlorococcus biomass in mgC/m3) when heterotrophic bacteria and Prochlorococcus share a grazer (top schematic). Increased organic production heading poleward first increases the heterotrophic bacterial population, increasing the shared zooplankton population which eventually consumes Prochlorococcus faster than it can grow (dashed contour).

Authors
Christopher L. Follett (MIT)
Stephanie Dutkiewicz (MIT)
François Ribalet (UW)
Emily Zakem (USC)
David Caron (USC)
E. Virginia Armbrust (UW)
Michael J. Follows (MIT)

Seagrass is not a silver bullet for climate change

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, January 21st, 2022

Coastal management actions aimed at protecting or restoring seagrass meadows are often assumed to have the collateral benefit of removing large amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to combat climate change. Be aware, however: not all seagrass meadows are alike. Under certain conditions, some release more carbon dioxide than they absorb and are net carbon sources to the atmosphere. This is now shown in a new study by an international team of researchers, published in the scientific journal Science Advances. This study combined direct eddy covariance measurements of air-water gas exchange with geochemical approaches to build a comprehensive carbon budget for a tropical seagrass meadow in south Florida. The process of ecosystem calcification released far more CO₂ to the atmosphere than was buried in sediments as “Blue Carbon.” This study questions the reliability of Blue Carbon approaches towards net CO₂ sequestration in tropical waters. But still unclear is how applicable these results are to the global scale, and what fraction of tropical seagrass meadows are net sources, rather than sinks, of CO₂ to the atmosphere.

Figure 1 : Diel trend in CO2 flux presented as discrete 30-min measurements during the study period (black circles) and annual mean fluxes for the year surrounding the study period, binned in 2-hour intervals [colored circles (x ± SD)].

Authors
Bryce R. Van Dam (Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon)
Mary A. Zeller (Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research)
Christian Lopes (Florida International University)
Ashley R. Smyth (University of Florida)
Michael E. Böttcher (Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research)
Christopher L. Osburn (North Carolina State University)
Tristan Zimmerman (Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon)
Daniel Pröfrock (Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon)
James W. Fourqurean (Florida International University)
Helmuth Thomas (Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon)

Zooplankton evolutionary rescue is limited by warming and acidification interactions

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, November 19th, 2021

A key issue facing ocean global change scientists is predicting the fate of biota under the combined effects of ocean warming and acidification (OWA). In addition to the constraints of studying multifactor drivers, predictions are hampered by few evolutionary studies, especially for animal populations. Evolutionary studies are essential to assess the possibility of evolutionary rescue under OWA– the recovery of fitness that prevents population extirpation in the face of environmental change.

Figure 1. Population fitness of the copepod Acartia tonsa vs generation under ambient, AM (18^oC, 400 µat pCO₂), ocean warming, OW (22^oC, 400 µat pCO₂), ocean acidification, ocean acidification (18^oC, 2000 µat pCO₂), and ocean warming and acidification ( 22^oC, 2000 µat pCO₂). Shown are means and 95% confidence intervals around the mean. The purple line shows that while fitness decreased after the 12^th generation, it was still considerably higher than at generation zero. Treatment lines are offset for clarity. N_o and N_τ (Y-axis legend) represent population size at the beginning and end of a generation (τ), and their ratio is the population fitness. Adapted from Dam et al. (2021).

A paper by Dam et al. published in Nature Climate Change examined the response of a ubiquitous copepod (zooplankter) to OWA for 25 generations to test for evolutionary rescue (Fig. 1). Using a suite of life-history traits, the researchers determined population fitness (the net reproductive rate per generation) under ambient, ocean warming, ocean acidification and OWA conditions. While population fitness decreased drastically under OWA conditions, it recovered in a few generations. However, after 12 generations under OWA, in contrast to OW or OA, fitness started to decrease again, suggesting incomplete evolutionary rescue driven by antagonistic interactions between warming and acidification. Such interactions add complexity to predictions of the fate of the oceanic biota under climate change.

Limited copepod evolutionary rescue would mean lower fisheries yields under OWA conditions as copepods are a main food source for forage fish. Copepods are also important vectors of the sequestration of CO₂ to deeper waters of the ocean. Limited copepod adaptation under OWA could weaken the efficiency of the biological carbon pump.

Authors:
Hans G. Dam (University of Connecticut)
James de Mayo (University of Connecticut)
Gihong Park (University of Connecticut)
Lydia Norton (University of Connecticut)
Xuejia He (Jinan University, China)
Michael B. Finiguerra (University of Connecticut)
Hannes Baumann (University of Connecticut)
Reid S. Brennn (University of Vermont)
Melissa H. Pespeni (University of Vermont)

Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

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