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Archive for climate change

What drives decadal changes in the Chesapeake Bay carbonate system?

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022 

Understanding decadal changes in the coastal carbonate system (CO2-system) is essential for predicting how the health of these waters is affected by anthropogenic drivers, such as changing atmospheric conditions and terrestrial inputs. However, studies that quantify the relative impacts of these drivers are lacking.

A recent study in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans identified the primary drivers of acidification in the Chesapeake Bay over the past three decades. The authors used a three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemistry model to quantify the relative impacts on the Bay CO2-system from increases in atmospheric CO2, temperature, oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations, terrestrial loadings of total alkalinity (TA) and DIC, as well as decreases in terrestrial nutrient inputs. Decadal changes in the surface CO2-system in the Chesapeake Bay exhibit large spatial and seasonal variability due to the combination of influences from the land, ocean and atmosphere. In the upper Bay, increased riverine TA and DIC from the Susquehanna River have increased surface pH, with other drivers only contributing to decadal changes that are one to two orders of magnitude smaller. In the mid- and lower Bay, higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations and reduced nutrient loading are the two most critical drivers and have nearly equally reduced surface pH in the summer. These decadal changes in surface pH show significant seasonal variability with the greatest magnitude generally aligning with the spring and summer shellfish production season (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Overall changes in modeled surface pH (ΔpHall) due to all global and terrestrial drivers combined over the past 30 years (i.e., 2015–2019 relative to 1985–1989). ΔpHall includes changes in surface pH due to increased atmospheric CO2, increased atmospheric thermal forcing, increased oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations, decreased riverine nitrate concentrations, decreased riverine organic nitrogen concentrations, and increased riverine total alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations.

 

These results indicate that a number of global and terrestrial drivers play crucial roles in coastal acidification. The combined effects of the examined drivers suggest that calcifying organisms in coastal surface waters are likely facing faster decreasing rates of pH than those in open ocean ecosystems. Decreases in surface pH associated with nutrient reductions highlight that the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem is returning to a more natural condition, e.g., a condition when anthropogenic nutrient input from the watershed was lower. However, increased atmospheric CO2 is simultaneously accelerating the rate of change in pH, exerting increased stress on estuarine calcifying organisms. For ecosystems such as the Chesapeake Bay where nutrient loading is already being managed, controlling the emissions of anthropogenic CO2 globally becomes increasingly important to decelerate the rate of acidification and to relieve the stress on estuarine calcifying organisms. Future observational and modeling studies are needed to further investigate how the decadal trends in the Chesapeake Bay CO2-system may vary with depth. These efforts will improve our current understanding of long-term change in coastal carbonate systems and their impacts on the shellfish industry.

 

Authors:
Fei Da (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary, USA)
Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary, USA)
Pierre St-Laurent (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary, USA)
Elizabeth H. Shadwick (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Australia)
Raymond G. Najjar (The Pennsylvania State University, USA)
Kyle E. Hinson (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary, USA)

Unmixing deep sea sedimentary records identifies sensitivity of marine calcifying zooplankton to abrupt warming and ocean acidification in the past

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022 

Ocean acidification and rising temperatures have led to concerns about how calcifying organisms foundational to marine ecosystems, will be affected in the near future. We often look to analogous abrupt climate change events in Earth’s geologic past to inform our predictions of these future communities. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) is an apt analog for modern climate change. The PETM was a global warming and ocean acidification event driven by geologically abrupt changes to the global carbon cycle approximately 56 million years ago. Much of what we know about the PETM is from the study of deep sea sedimentary records and the microfossils within them. However, these records can experience intense sediment mixing—from bottom water currents and burrowing by organisms living along the seafloor—which can blur or distort the primary climate and ecological signals in these paleorecords.

PETM corrected foram graphic - see caption for detail

Figure 1. A) Frequency distribution of single-shell stable carbon isotope (δ13C) values for planktic foraminiferal shells from a deep sea sedimentary PETM record from the equatorial Pacific (n = 548). Note that 50% of shells measured record distinctly PETM values, while 49.5% record distinctly pre-PETM values. B) Comparison of diversity metric (Shannon-H) between the isotopically filtered (i.e., unmixed) and unfiltered (i.e., mixed) planktic foraminiferal assemblages.

A recent study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences used geochemical signatures measured from individual microfossil shells of planktic foraminifera (surface-dwelling marine calcareous zooplankton) to deconvolve the effects of sediment mixing on a deep sea PETM record from the equatorial Pacific. Use of this “isotopic filtering” (unmixing) method revealed that nearly 50% of shells in the PETM interval were reworked contaminants that lived before the global warming event (Figure 1A). The identification and removal of these older shells from fossil census counts drastically changed interpretations of how these organisms responded to the PETM. Prior interpretations assumed that planktic foraminiferal communities living near the equator diversified during the PETM. However, by deconvolving the effects of sediment mixing on the same equatorial deep sea record, researchers found that these communities actually suffered an abrupt decrease in diversity at the onset of the PETM (Figure 1B). This decrease is likely due to several taxa migrating towards the poles to escape the extreme heat of the tropics and lower oxygen conditions found at deeper water depths (i.e., thermocline) during the PETM. Additionally, some taxa may have undergone morphological changes, signaling reduced calcification, in response to extreme acidifying conditions. Today, anthropogenic carbon emission rates are ~10 times faster than the carbon cycling perturbation that triggered the PETM. Although planktic foraminifera and other key zooplankton survived the PETM, these communities suffered at the hands of extreme sea surface temperatures and acidifying waters, and may not be able to cope the rate of environmental changes in our ocean over the coming centuries.

 

Authors:
Brittany N. Hupp (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
D. Clay Kelly (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
John W. Williams (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

Predators Set Range for the Ocean’s Most Abundant Phytoplankton

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Friday, April 1st, 2022 

Prochlorococcus is the world’s smallest phytoplankton (microscopic plant-like organisms) and the most numerous, with more than ten septillion individuals. This tiny plankton lives ubiquitously in warm, blue, tropical waters but is conspicuously absent in more polar regions. The prevailing theory was the cold: Prochlorococcus doesn’t grow at low temperatures. In a recent paper, the authors argue ecological control, in particular, predation by zooplankton. Cold polar waters are greener because they contain more nutrients, leading to more life and more organic matter production. This production feeds more and larger heterotrophic bacteria, who then feed larger predators—specifically the same zooplankton that consume Prochlorococcus. If the shared zooplankton increases enough, it will consume Prochlorococus faster than it can grow, causing the species to collapse at higher latitudes. These results show that an understanding of both ecology and temperature is required to predict how these ecosystems will shift in a warming ocean.

Figure 1: Surface populations of Prochlorococcus collapse (dashed lines) moving northward from Hawaii as seen in transects (transect line shown in red on map, lower left) from cruises in April 2016 (black dots) and September 2017 (green triangles). This collapse of the Prochlorococcus emerges in dynamical computer models (lower right, color indicates Prochlorococcus biomass in mgC/m3) when heterotrophic bacteria and Prochlorococcus share a grazer (top schematic). Increased organic production heading poleward first increases the heterotrophic bacterial population, increasing the shared zooplankton population which eventually consumes Prochlorococcus faster than it can grow (dashed contour).

Authors
Christopher L. Follett (MIT)
Stephanie Dutkiewicz (MIT)
François Ribalet (UW)
Emily Zakem (USC)
David Caron (USC)
E. Virginia Armbrust (UW)
Michael J. Follows (MIT)

Seagrass is not a silver bullet for climate change

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Friday, January 21st, 2022 

Coastal management actions aimed at protecting or restoring seagrass meadows are often assumed to have the collateral benefit of removing large amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to combat climate change. Be aware, however: not all seagrass meadows are alike. Under certain conditions, some release more carbon dioxide than they absorb and are net carbon sources to the atmosphere. This is now shown in a new study by an international team of researchers, published in the scientific journal Science Advances. This study combined direct eddy covariance measurements of air-water gas exchange with geochemical approaches to build a comprehensive carbon budget for a tropical seagrass meadow in south Florida. The process of ecosystem calcification released far more CO2 to the atmosphere than was buried in sediments as “Blue Carbon.” This study questions the reliability of Blue Carbon approaches towards net CO2 sequestration in tropical waters. But still unclear is how applicable these results are to the global scale, and what fraction of tropical seagrass meadows are net sources, rather than sinks, of CO2 to the atmosphere.

Figure 1 : Diel trend in CO2 flux presented as discrete 30-min measurements during the study period (black circles) and annual mean fluxes for the year surrounding the study period, binned in 2-hour intervals [colored circles (x ± SD)].

Authors
Bryce R. Van Dam (Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon)
Mary A. Zeller (Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research)
Christian Lopes (Florida International University)
Ashley R. Smyth (University of Florida)
Michael E. Böttcher  (Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research)
Christopher L. Osburn (North Carolina State University)
Tristan Zimmerman (Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon)
Daniel Pröfrock (Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon)
James W. Fourqurean (Florida International University)
Helmuth Thomas  (Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon)

Zooplankton evolutionary rescue is limited by warming and acidification interactions

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Friday, November 19th, 2021 

A key issue facing ocean global change scientists is predicting the fate of biota under the combined effects of ocean warming and acidification (OWA). In addition to the constraints of studying multifactor drivers, predictions are hampered by few evolutionary studies, especially for animal populations. Evolutionary studies are essential to assess the possibility of evolutionary rescue under OWA– the recovery of fitness that prevents population extirpation in the face of environmental change.

Figure 1. Population fitness of the copepod Acartia tonsa vs generation under ambient, AM (18oC, 400 µat pCO2), ocean warming, OW (22oC, 400 µat pCO2), ocean acidification, ocean acidification (18oC, 2000 µat pCO2), and ocean warming and acidification ( 22oC, 2000 µat pCO2). Shown are means and 95% confidence intervals around the mean. The purple line shows that while fitness decreased after the 12th generation, it was still considerably higher than at generation zero. Treatment lines are offset for clarity. No and Nτ (Y-axis legend) represent population size at the beginning and end of a generation (τ), and their ratio is the population fitness. Adapted from Dam et al. (2021).

A paper by Dam et al. published in Nature Climate Change examined the response of a ubiquitous copepod (zooplankter) to OWA for 25 generations to test for evolutionary rescue (Fig. 1). Using a suite of life-history traits, the researchers determined population fitness (the net reproductive rate per generation) under ambient, ocean warming, ocean acidification and OWA conditions. While population fitness decreased drastically under OWA conditions, it recovered in a few generations.  However, after 12 generations under OWA, in contrast to OW or OA, fitness started to decrease again, suggesting incomplete evolutionary rescue driven by antagonistic interactions between warming and acidification. Such interactions add complexity to predictions of the fate of the oceanic biota under climate change.

Limited copepod evolutionary rescue would mean lower fisheries yields under OWA conditions as copepods are a main food source for forage fish. Copepods are also important vectors of the sequestration of CO2 to deeper waters of the ocean. Limited copepod adaptation under OWA could weaken the efficiency of the biological carbon pump.

 

Authors:
Hans G. Dam (University of Connecticut)
James de Mayo (University of Connecticut)
Gihong Park (University of Connecticut)
Lydia Norton (University of Connecticut)
Xuejia He (Jinan University, China)
Michael B. Finiguerra (University of Connecticut)
Hannes Baumann (University of Connecticut)
Reid S. Brennn (University of Vermont)
Melissa H. Pespeni (University of Vermont)

Contrasting N2O fluxes of source vs. sink in western Arctic Ocean during summer 2017

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Wednesday, October 20th, 2021 

During the western Arctic summer season both physical and biogeochemical features differ with latitude between the Bering Strait and Chukchi Borderland. The southern region (Bering Strait to the Chukchi Shelf) is relatively warm, saline, and eutrophic, due to the intrusion of Pacific waters that bring heat and nutrients in to the western Arctic Ocean (WAO). Because of the Pacific influence, the WAO is one of the most productive stretches of ocean in the world. In contrast, the northern region (Chukchi Borderland to the Canada Basin) is primarily influenced by freshwater originating from sea ice melt and rivers, and is relatively cold, fresh, and oligotrophic. A frontal zone exists between the southern region and northern region (~73°N) due to the distinct physicochemical contrast between mixing Pacific waters and freshwater. These regions support distinct bacterial communities also, making the environmental variations drivers extremely relevant to nitrous oxide (N2O) dynamics.

A recent study published in Scientific Reports examined the role of the WAO as a source and a sink of atmospheric N2O. There are obvious differences in N2O fluxes between southern Chukchi Sea (SC) and northern Chukchi Sea (NC). In the SC (Pacific water characteristics dominate) N2O emissions act as a net source to the atmosphere (Figure 1a). In the NC (freshwater dominant) absorption of atmospheric N2O into the water column suggests that this region acts as a net sink (Figure 1a). The positive fluxes of SC occurred with relatively high sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and biogeochemically-derived N2O production, whereas the negative fluxes of NC were associated with relatively low SST, SSS, and little N2O production. These linear relationships between N2O fluxes and environmental variables suggest that summer WAO N2O fluxes are remarkably sensitive to environmental changes.

Figure 1. (a) Map of the sampling stations using the Ice Breaking R/V Araon during August 2017. The sampling locations were coloured with N2O fluxes (blue to red gradient, see color bar; sink, air → sea (−), and source, sea → air (+). The southern Chukchi Sea (SC) extends from Bering Strait to Chukchi Shelf and the northern Chukchi Sea (NC) extends from Chukchi Borderland and Canada Basin. The frontal zone arises between SC and NC (black dotted line). (b) Illustration showing future changes in the distribution of the WAO N2O flux constrained by the positive feedback scenario of increasing inflow of Pacific waters and rapidly declining sea-ice extent under accelerating Arctic warming.

This study suggests a potential scenario for future WAO changes in terms of accelerating Arctic change. Increasing inflow of the Pacific waters and rapidly declining sea-ice extent are critical. The increasing inflow of warm nutrient-enriched Pacific waters will likely extend the SC N2O source region northward, increasing productivity, and thereby intensifying nitrification. All of which would lead to a strengthening of the WAO’s role as an N2O source. A rapid loss of the sea ice extent could ultimately lead to a sea-ice-free NC, and again, a northward shift, which would result in a diminished role of the NC as an N2O sink (Figure 1b). While improving our understanding of WAO N2O dynamics, this study suggests both a direction for future work and a clear need for a longer-term study to answer questions about both seasonal variations in these dynamics and possible interannual to climatological trends.

 

Authors:
Jang-Mu Heo (Department of Marine Science, Incheon National University)
Sang-Min Eom (Department of Marine Science, Incheon National University)
Alison M. Macdonald (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Hyo-Ryeon Kim (Department of Marine Science, Incheon National University)
Joo-Eun Yoon (Department of Marine Science, Incheon National University)
Il-Nam Kim (Department of Marine Science, Incheon National University)

The ephemeral and elusive COVID blip in ocean carbon

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Monday, September 20th, 2021 

The global pandemic of the last nearly two years has affected all of us on a daily and long-term basis. Our planet is not exempt from these impacts. Can we see a signal of COVID-related CO2 emissions reductions in the ocean? In a recent study, Lovenduski et al. apply detection and attribution analysis to output from an ensemble of COVID-like simulations of an Earth system model to answer this question. While it is nearly impossible to detect a COVID-related change in ocean pH, the model produces a unique fingerprint in air-sea DpCO2 that is attributable to COVID. Challengingly, the large interannual variability in the climate system  makes this fingerprint  difficult to detect at open ocean buoy sites.

This study highlights the challenges associated with detecting statistically meaningful changes in ocean carbon and acidity following CO2 emissions reductions, and reminds the reader that it may be difficult to observe intentional emissions reductions — such as those that we may enact to meet the Paris Climate Agreement – in the ocean carbon system.

Figure caption: The fingerprint (pink line) of COVID-related CO2 emissions reductions in global-mean surface ocean pH and air-sea DpCO2, as estimated by an ensemble of COVID-like simulations in an Earth system model.   While the pH fingerprint is not particularly exciting, the air-sea DpCO2 fingerprint displays a temporary weakening of the ocean carbon sink in 2021 due to COVID emissions reductions.

 

Authors:
Nikki Lovenduski (University of Colorado Boulder)
Neil Swart (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis)
Adrienne Sutton (NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)
John Fyfe (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis)
Galen McKinley (Columbia University and Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory)
Chris Sabine (University of Hawai’i at Manoa)
Nancy Williams (University of South Florida)

Exploiting phytoplankton as a biosensor for nutrient limitation

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Wednesday, September 15th, 2021 

In the surface ocean, phytoplankton growth is often limited by a scarcity of key nutrients such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and iron. While this is important, there are methodological and conceptual difficulties in characterizing these nutrient limitations.

A recent paper published in Science Magazine leveraged a global metagenomic dataset from Bio-GO-SHIP to address these challenges. The authors characterized the abundance of genes that confer adaptations to nutrient limitation within the picocyanobacteria Prochlorococcus. Using the relative abundance of these genes as an indicator of nutrient limitation allowed the authors to capture expected regions of nutrient limitation, and novel regions that had not previously been studied. This gene-derived indicator of nutrient limitation matched previous methods of assessing nutrient limitation, such as bottle incubation experiments.

These findings have important implications for the global ocean. Characterizing the impact of nutrient limitation on primary production is especially critical in light of future stratification driven by climate change. In addition, this novel methodological approach allows scientists to use microbial communities as an eco-genomic biosensor of adaptation to changing nutrient regimes. For instance, future studies of coastal microbes or other ecosystems may help communities and environmental managers better understand how local microbial populations are adapting to climate change.

 

Watch an illustrated video overview of this research

Authors:
Lucas J. Ustick, Alyse A. Larkin, Catherine A. Garcia, Nathan S. Garcia, Melissa L. Brock, Jenna A. Lee, Nicola A. Wiseman, J. Keith Moore, Adam C. Martiny
(all University of California, Irvine)

How atmospheric and oceanographic forcing impact the carbon sequestration in an ultra-oligotrophic marine system

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Wednesday, August 11th, 2021 

Sinking particles are a critical conduit for the export of material from the surface to the deep ocean. Despite their importance in oceanic carbon cycling, little is known about the composition and seasonal variability of sinking particles which reach abyssal depths. Oligotrophic waters cover ~75% of the ocean surface and contribute over 30% of the global marine carbon fixation. Understanding the processes that control carbon export to the deep oligotrophic areas is crucial to better characterize the strength and efficiency of the biological pump as well as to project the response of these systems to climate fluctuations and anthropogenic perturbations.

In a recent study published in Frontiers in Earth Science, authors synthesized data from atmospheric and oceanographic parameters, together with main mass components, and stable isotope and source-specific lipid biomarker composition of sinking particles collected in the deep Eastern Mediterranean Sea (4285m, Ierapetra Basin) for a three-year period (June 2010-June 2013). In addition, this study compared the sinking particulate flux data with previously reported deep-sea surface sediments from the study area to shed light on the benthic–pelagic coupling.

Figure Caption: a) Biplot of net primary productivity vs export efficiency (top and bottom horizontal dashed lines indicate threshold for high and low export efficiency regimes). b) Biplot of POC-normalized concentrations of terrestrial vs. phytoplankton-derived lipid biomarkers of the sinking particles collected in the deep Eastern Mediterranean Sea (Ierapetra Basin, NW Levantine Basin) from June 2010–June 2013, and surface sediments collected from January 2007 to June 2012 in the study area.

Both seasonal and episodic pulses are crucial for POC export to the deep Eastern Mediterranean Sea. POC fluxes peaked in spring April–May 2012 (12.2 mg m−2 d−1) related with extreme atmospheric forcing. Overall, summer particle export fuels more efficient carbon sequestration than the other seasons. The results of this study highlight that the combination of extreme weather events and aerosol deposition can trigger an influx of both marine labile carbon and anthropogenic compounds to the deep. Finally, the comparison of the sinking particles flux data with surface sediments revealed an isotopic discrimination, as well as a preferential degradation of labile organic matter during deposition and burial, along with higher preservation of land-derived POC in the underlying sediments. This study provides key knowledge to better understand the export, fate and preservation vs. degradation of organic carbon, and for modeling the organic carbon burial rates in the Mediterranean Sea.

 

Authors:
Rut Pedrosa-Pamies (The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, US; Research Group in Marine Geosciences, University of Barcelona, Spain)
Constantine Parinos (Institute of Oceanography, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Greece)
Anna Sanchez-Vidal (Group in Marine Geosciences, University of Barcelona, Spain)
Antoni Calafat (Group in Marine Geosciences, University of Barcelona, Spain)
Miquel Canals (Group in Marine Geosciences, University of Barcelona, Spain)
Dimitris Velaoras (Institute of Oceanography, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Greece)
Nikolaos Mihalopoulos (Environmental Chemical Processes Laboratory, University of Crete; National Observatory of Athens, Greece)
Maria Kanakidou (Environmental Chemical Processes Laboratory, University of Crete Greece)
Nikolaos Lampadariou (Institute of Oceanography, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Greece)
Alexandra Gogou (Institute of Oceanography, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Greece)

Air-sea gas disequilibrium drove deoxygenation of the deep ice-age ocean

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Thursday, March 18th, 2021 

During the Last Glacial Maximum (~20,000 years ago, LGM) sediment data show that the deep ocean had lower dissolved oxygen (O2) concentrations than the preindustrial ocean, despite cooler temperatures of this period increasing O2 solubility in sea water.

Figure 1. a) Whole ocean inventory of the O2 components in the preindustrial control (PIC): total O2 (O2); the preformed components equilibrium O2 (O2 equilibrium), physical disequilibrium O2 (O2 diseq phys) and biologically-mediated disequilibrium (O2 diseq bio); and O2 respired from soft-tissue (O2 soft). b) The difference in whole ocean inventory of O2 components between the LGM and PIC simulations.

In a study published in Nature Geoscience, the authors provide one of the first explanations for glacial deoxygenation. The authors combined a data-constrained model of the preindustrial (PIC) and LGM ocean with a novel decomposition of O2 to assess the processes affecting the oceanic distribution of oxygen. The decomposition allowed for the preformed disequilibrium O2—the amount of oxygen that deviates from its solubility equilibrium value when at the surface—to be tracked, along with other contributions such as the O2 consumed by bacterial respiration of organic matter. In the preindustrial ocean, a third of the subsurface oxygen deficit was a result of disequilibrium rather than oxygen consumed by bacteria. This contradicts previous assumptions (Figure 1a). Nearly 80% of the disequilibrium resulted from upwelling waters, depleted in O2 due to respiration, not fully equilibrating before re-subduction into the ocean interior. This effect was even greater during the LGM (Figure 1b). The authors attributed this largely to the widespread presence of sea ice—which acts as a cap on the surface preventing the water from gaining oxygen from the atmosphere—in the ocean around Antarctica, with a smaller contribution from iron fertilization.

This study provides one of the first mechanistic explanations for LGM deep ocean deoxygenation. As the ocean is currently losing oxygen due to warming, the effect of other processes, including sea ice changes, could prove important for understanding long-term ocean oxygenation changes.

Authors
Ellen Cliff (University of Oxford)
Samar Khatiwala (University of Oxford)
Andreas Schmittner (Oregon State University)

Joint highlight with GEOTRACES International Project Office

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