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The past, present, and future of the ocean carbon cycle: A global data product with regional insights

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, January 21st, 2020

A new study published in Scientific Reports debuts a global data product of ocean acidification (OA) and buffer capacity from the beginning of the Industrial Revolution to the end of the century (1750-2100 C.E.). To develop this product, the authors linked one of the richest observational carbon dioxide (CO₂) data products (6^th version of the Surface Ocean CO₂ Atlas, 1991-2018, ~23 million observations) with temporal trends modeled at individual locations in the global ocean. By linking the modeled pH trends to the observed modern pH distribution, the climatology benefits from recent improvements in both model design and observational data coverage, and is likely to provide more accurate regional OA trajectories than the model output alone. The authors also show that air-sea CO₂ disequilibrium is the dominant mode of spatial variability for surface pH, and discuss why pH and calcium carbonate mineral saturation states (Omega), two important metrics for OA, show contrasting spatial variability. They discover that sea surface temperature (SST) imposes two large but cancelling effects on surface ocean pH and Omega, i.e., the effects of SST on (a) chemical speciation of the carbonic system; and (b) air-sea exchange of CO₂ and the subsequent DIC/TA ratio of the seawater. These two processes act in concert for Omega but oppose each other for pH. As a result, while Omega is markedly lower in the colder polar regions than in the warmer subtropical and tropical regions, surface ocean pH shows little latitudinal variation.

Figure 1. Spatial distribution of global surface ocean pH_T (total hydrogen scale, annually averaged) in past (1770), present (2000) and future (2100) under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario.

This data product, which extends from the pre-Industrial era (1750 C.E.) to the end of this century under historical atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (pre-2005) and the Representative Concentrations Pathways (post-2005) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s 5^th Assessment Report, may be helpful to policy-makers and managers who are developing regional adaptation strategies for ocean acidification.

The published paper is available here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-55039-4

The data product is available here: https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/oads/data/0206289.xml

Authors:
Li-Qing Jiang (University of Maryland and NOAA NCEI)
Brendan Carter (NOAA PMEL and University of Washington JISAO)
Richard Feely (NOAA PMEL)
Siv Lauvset, Are Olsen (University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway)

Air-sea gas exchange estimates biased by multi-day surface trapping

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, August 20th, 2019

Routine measurements of air-sea gas exchange assume a homogeneous gas concentration across the upper few meters of the ocean. But is this assumption valid? A recent study in Biogeosciences revealed substantial systematic gradients of nitrous oxide (N₂O) in the top few meters of the Peruvian upwelling regime. These gradients lead to a 30% overestimate of integrated N₂O emissions across the entire region, with local emissions overestimated by as much as 800%.

Figure caption: Air-sea gas exchange estimates can be biased by gas concentration gradients within the upper few meters of the ocean; in particular, surface trapping over several days’ duration can generate substantial gradients.

The N₂O gradients off Peru form during multi-day events of surface trapping, in which near-surface stratification dampens turbulent mixing. Until now, surface trapping was assumed to be a diurnal (driven by solar warming) process without memory, whereby only weak gradients would form during the hours of trapping and then dissipate. It is likely that multi-day surface trapping occurs in other ocean regions as well. The total impact on emission estimates of different greenhouse gases is yet to be quantified, but given the findings in the Peruvian upwelling system, could be significant globally.

Authors:
Tim Fischer, Annette Kock, Damian L. Arévalo-Martínez, Marcus Dengler, Peter Brandt, Hermann W. Bange (GEOMAR)

A new era of observing the ocean carbonate system

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, August 6th, 2019

Amidst a backdrop of natural variability, the ocean carbonate system is undergoing a massive anthropogenic change. To capture this anthropogenic signal and differentiate it from natural variability, carbonate observations are needed across a range of spatial and temporal scales (Figure 1), many of which are not captured by traditional oceanographic platforms. A new review of autonomous carbonate observations published in Current Climate Change Reports highlights the development and deployment of pH sensors capable of in situ measurements on autonomous platforms, which represents a major step forward in observing the ocean carbonate system. These sensors have been rigorously field-tested via large-scale deployments on profiling floats in the Southern Ocean (Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling, SOCCOM), providing an unprecedented wealth of year-round data that have demonstrated the importance of wintertime outgassing of carbon dioxide in the Southern Ocean.

Figure 1: Observational capabilities and carbonate system processes as a function of time and space. Ocean processes that affect the carbonate system (solid color shapes—labeled in the legend) are depicted as a function of the temporal and spatial scales over which they must be observed to capture important variability and/or long-term change.

Most current autonomous platforms routinely measure only a single carbonate parameter, which then requires an algorithm to estimate a second parameter so that the rest of the carbonate system can be calculated. However, the ongoing development of sensors and systems to measure, rather than estimate, other carbonate parameters may greatly reduce uncertainty in constraining the full carbonate system. It is critical that the community continue to develop and adhere to best practices for calibration and data handling as existing sensors are deployed in increasing numbers and new sensors become available. Expanding autonomous carbonate measurements will increase our understanding of how anthropogenic change impacts natural variability and will provide a means to monitor carbon uptake by the ocean in real-time at high spatial and temporal resolution. This will not only help to understand the mechanisms driving changes in the ocean carbonate system, but will allow new insights in the role of mesoscale processes in regional and global biogeochemical cycles.

Authors:
Seth M. Bushinsky (Princeton University/University of Hawai’i Mānoa)
Yuichiro Takeshita (Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute)
Nancy L. Williams (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory – NOAA / University of South Florida)

Northeast Pacific time-series reveals episodic events as major player in carbon export

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, April 16th, 2019

Temporal fluctuations in the oceanic carbon budget play an important role in the cycling of organic matter from production in surface waters to consumption and sequestration in the deep ocean. A 29-year time-series (1989-2017) of particulate organic carbon (POC) fluxes and seafloor measurements of oxygen consumption in the abyssal northeast Pacific (Sta. M, 4,000 m depth) recently revealed an increasing proportional contribution from episodic events over the past seven years. From 2011 to 2017, 43% of POC flux arrived during high-magnitude (≥ mean + 2 σ) episodic events. Time lags between changes in satellite-estimated export flux (EF), POC flux to the seafloor, and seafloor oxygen consumption varied from 0 to 70 days among six flux events, which could be attributed to variable remineralization rates and/or particle sinking speeds. The Martin equation, a commonly used model to estimate carbon flux, predicted background fluxes well but missed episodic fluxes, subsequently underestimating the measured fluxes by almost 50% (Figure 1). This study reveals the potential importance of episodic POC pulses into the deep sea in the oceanic carbon budget, which has implications for observing infrastructure, model development, and field campaigns focused on quantifying carbon export.

Figure Caption: (A) Station M POC flux measured from sediment traps compared to Martin model estimates, from 1989 to 2017. (B) Model performance for years with >50% sampling coverage: (POC flux_Martin − POC flux_trap)/POC flux_trap 100.

Authors:
Kenneth Smith (MBARI)
Henry Ruhl (MBARI, NOC)
Christine Huffard (MBARI)
Monique Messié (MBARI, Aix Marseille Université)
Mati Kahru (Scripps)

Ocean color offers early warning signal of climate change’s impact on marine phytoplankton

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, April 15th, 2019

Marine phytoplankton form the foundation of the marine food web and play a crucial role in the earth’s carbon cycle. Typically, satellite-derived Chlorophyll a (Chl a) is used to evaluate trends in phytoplankton. However, it may be many decades (or longer) before we see a statistically significant signature of climate change in Chl a due to its inherently large natural variability. In a recent study in Nature Communications, authors explored how other metrics, in particular the color of the ocean, may show earlier and stronger signals of climate change at the base of the marine food web.

Figure 1. Computer model results indicating the year in which the signature of climate change impact is larger than the natural variability for (a) Chl a, and (b) remotely sensed reflectance in the blue-green waveband. White areas indicate where there is not a statistically significant change by 2100, or for regions that are currently ice-covered.

In this study, the authors use a unique marine physical-biogeochemical and ecosystem model that also captures how light penetrates the ocean and is reflected upward. The model shows that over the course of the 21^st century, remote sensing reflectance (R_RS, the ratio of upwelling radiance to the downwelling irradiance at the ocean’s surface) in the blue-green portions of the light spectrum is likely to have an earlier, more spatially extensive climate change-driven signal than Chl a (Figure 1). This is because R_RS integrates not only changes to Chl a, but also alterations in other optically important water constituents. In particular, R_RS also captures changes in phytoplankton community structure, which strongly affects ocean optics and is likely to be altered over the 21^st century. Monitoring the response of marine phytoplankton to climate change is important for predicting changes at higher trophic levels, including commercial fisheries. Our study emphasizes the importance of 1) maintaining ocean color sensor compatibility and long-term stability, particularly in the blue-green wavebands; 2) maintaining long-term in situ time-series of plankton communities – e.g., the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey and repeat stations (e.g., HOT, BATS); and 3) reducing uncertainties in satellite-derived phytoplankton community structure estimates.

Authors:
Stephanie Dutkiewicz, Oliver Jahn (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Anna E. Hickman (University of Southampton)
Stephanie Henson (National Oceanography Centre Southampton)
Claudie Beaulieu (University of California, Santa Cruz)
Erwan Monier (University of California, Davis)

A half century perspective: Seasonal productivity and particulates in the Ross Sea

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019

Studies of cruise observations in the Ross Sea are typically biased to a single or a few year(s), and long-term trends have predominantly come from satellites. Consequently, the in situ climatological patterns of nutrients and particulate matter have remained vague and unclear. What are the typical patterns of nutrients and particulate matter concentrations in the Ross Sea in spring and summer? How do these concentrations affect annual productivity estimates?

Patterns of nutrient and particulate matter in the Ross Sea can play a wide-ranging role in a productive region like the Ross Sea. Smith and Kaufman (2018) recently synthesized austral spring and summer (November to February) observations from 42 Ross Sea research cruises (1967-2016) to analyze broad biogeochemical patterns. The resulting climatologies revealed interesting seasonal patterns of nutrient uptake and particulate organic carbon (POC) to chlorophyll (chl) ratios (POC:chl). Temporal patterns in the nitrate and phosphate climatologies confirm the role of early spring haptophyte (Phaeocystis antarctica) growth, followed by limited nitrogen and phosphorus removal in summer. However, a notable increase in POC occurred later in summer that was largely independent of chlorophyll changes, resulting in a dramatic increase in POC:chl. A gradual decline in silicic acid concentrations throughout the summer, along with an increased occurrence of biogenic silica during this time suggest that diatoms may be responsible for this later POC spike. Revised estimates of primary productivity based on these observed climatological POC:chl ratios suggests that summer blooms may be a significant contributor to seasonal productivity, and that estimates of productivity based on satellite pigments underestimate annual production by at least 70% (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Bio-optical estimates of mean productivity using a constant POC:chl ratio (black dots and lines) and modified estimates of productivity using the monthly climatological POC:chl ratios (red dots and lines), in a) the Ross Sea polynya region and b) the western Ross Sea region.

By clarifying typical seasonal patterns of nutrient uptake and POC:chl, these climatologies underscore the biogeochemical importance of both spring haptophyte growth and previously underestimated summer diatom growth in the Ross Sea. Further investigation of the causes and consequences of elevated summer ratios is needed, as assessments of regional food webs and biogeochemical cycles depend on more accurate understanding of primary productivity patterns. Likewise, these results highlight the need for continued efforts to constrain satellite productivity estimates in the Ross Sea using in situ constituent ratios.

For other relevant work on seasonal biogeochemical patterns in the Ross Sea, please see https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2003.07.010. And for intra-seasonal estimates of particulate organic carbon to chlorophyll using gliders, please see: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr.2014.06.011.

Authors:
Walker O. Smith Jr. (VIMS, College of William and Mary)
Daniel E. Kaufman (VIMS, College of William and Mary; now at Chesapeake Research Consortium)

Rapid warming and salinity changes mask acidification in Gulf of Maine waters

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, February 20th, 2019

Why don’t we see ocean acidification in over a decade of high-frequency observations in the Gulf of Maine? The answer lies in a recent decade of changes that raised sea surface temperature and salinity, and in turn dampened the expected acidification signal and caused the saturation states of calcite minerals to increase. From 2004 to 2014, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Maine were higher than any observations recorded in the region over the past 150 years. This greatly impacted both CO₂ solubility and the sea surface carbonate system, as detailed in a recent paper in Biogeochemistry.

Over the 34 years of the time-series, the recent event is extreme, but interannual and decadal salinity and temperature variability also influenced carbonate system parameters, which makes it difficult to isolate and quantify an anthropogenic ocean acidification signal, especially if relying on shorter-term observations (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Modeled Ω_Aragonite (top panel) and pH (bottom panel) anomalies relative to monthly 2004 data. The red lines show trends prior to and after 2004, after which warming accelerated.

For those with a stake in profiting from or managing extractive resources that are susceptible to ocean acidification such as commercially important lobster and bivalves, understanding how ecosystems will be affected is critical. These analyses clearly demonstrate how physical processes can either accelerate or mitigate ocean carbonate system changes, thus confounding the detection of ocean acidification that is expected from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. To assess whether an ecosystem or species is at risk or aided by such processes, it is important to observe, understand, and be able to model all sources of carbonate system variability.

Authors:
Joe Salisbury and Bror Jönsson (Both at Ocean Processes Analysis Laboratory, University of New Hampshire)

Autonomous measurement of N-loss in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific ODZ: An Invitation for Collaboration

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, January 10th, 2019

By Mark A. Altabet (SMAST/U. Mass. Dartmouth), Craig McNeil, and Eric D’Asaro (both at APL / U. Washington)

Oxygen deficient zones (ODZs) constitute a small fraction of total oceanic volume yet play an important role in regulating global ocean carbon and nitrogen cycles. They are critical for regulating the ocean’s nitrogen budget, as loss of biologically available nitrogen to N₂ gas (N-loss) within ODZs is estimated to be 30 to 50% of the global total. However, temporal and spatial variability in N-loss rates have been undersampled by ship-based process studies leaving substantial uncertainty in overall rates. While local and short-term regulation of N-loss by O₂ and organic matter availability is well documented, little is known about the larger scale temporal/spatial variability in N-loss that may result from physical forcings such as remote ventilation, seasonal variability in vertical exchange with the near-surface layer, and mesoscale eddies. Understanding the impact of larger scale physical forcings on N-loss as mediated through O₂ and organic flux is needed to fully understand the causes and consequences of any future ODZ expansion. To achieve this, we need sustained observations by a distributed array capable of detecting synoptic variability.

To address these issues, a new NSF-funded project will carry out a multiyear, autonomous float-based observational program to answer the following questions:

How does biogenic N₂ production in ODZs vary over weekly to annual time scales and space scales of 10s to 1000s km?
What are the major scales of variability and their associated oceanographic phenomena and how do they relate to control by organic matter flux and O₂ concentration?
How does this variability influence regionally integrated N-loss?

Figure 1. The ETNP ODZ roughly defined by O₂ <1.5 μmol/kg (orange, World Ocean Atlas 2013). Our new NSF-funded project will sample across these patterns of spatial and temporal variability for 2 years with 10 subsurface ODZ floats (red/blue) each measuring profiles of T, S, O₂ (50 nmol/kg LOD) and N₂ (0.1 μmol/kg precision), and the in situ rate of N₂ change. Four Argo floats with O₂ sensors and BioOptical floats provided by collaborators will supplement this array. Bright bar symbols are the planned deployment positions; dimmed bar symbols suggest possible displacements after 2 years. Ship-based measurements (yellow stars) along the deployment cruise track (magenta) will be used for float sensor calibration and identification of ETNP source water properties. The 2-year track of our prototype GasFloat is also shown (black line).

This project will exploit our ability to make in situ, ultra-high precision measurement of N₂ concentration (~0.1 umol/kg) and use commercially available O₂ sensors to measure O₂ in the 10s of nM range. Our study area is the Eastern Tropical North Pacific (ETNP), the largest ODZ and the region of our successful pilot deployments (Figure 1). Over a multi-year period, our study will determine in situ nM-level O₂ and biogenic N₂ on float profiles distributed throughout the ETNP and encompassing geographic gradients in O₂ and surface productivity. For the first time, our study will also determine in situ N-loss rates from changes in N₂ concentration during one- to two-week Lagrangian float deployments drifting along a constant density surface (Figure 2). A pilot two-year float (‘GasFloat, Figure 1) deployment in the ETNP has documented our ability to do so. Critically, our float-based approach more closely matches the frequency and distribution of observations to the expected variability in biogenic N₂ production, as compared to prior work. This study will also dramatically increase the data density in this region by acquiring >500 profiles/drifts for N₂ and >1000 profiles for nM O₂.

Figure 2. (a) Schematic of float system to be deployed (b) Example of float mission including 2-week isopycnal drift.

We anticipate float deployment in summer 2020 via a UNOLS vessel. Investigators interested in collaborative participation through contribution of autonomous instrumentation and/or making shipboard measurements are encouraged to contact the lead PI Mark Altabet at maltabet@umassd.edu. Similarly, students interested in graduate research opportunities through this project should contact the lead PI.

Artificial light from sampling platforms changes zooplankton behavior

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, November 26th, 2018

When designing sampling we make generally accepted assumptions that what we collect is representative of what is “normal” or naturally occurring at the place, time, and depth of collection. However, a recent study in Science Advances revealed that this might not be true. During round-the-clock shipboard sampling, lights used at night can actually be a form of pollution that disrupts the diel cycle of zooplankton vertical migration.

Effect of light pollution on krill from a ship (left), diel vertical migration in natural dark conditions (middle) and effect of moonlight (right). Figure by Malin Daase (UiT).

Using a Autonomous Surface Vehicle the authors documented zooplankton behavioral patterns of light avoidance never previously seen. The study compared results from high Arctic polar night (unpolluted light environment for an extended time), to near ship samples. During months of near constant darkness in the Arctic, there was still a diel vertical migration of zooplankton limited to the upper 30 m of the water column and centered around the local sun noon. Contrasting the results from light-polluted and unpolluted areas, the authors observed that the vast majority of the pelagic community exhibit a strong light-escape response in the presence of artificial light (both ship light and even headlamps from researchers in open boats). This effect was observed down to 100 m depth and 190 m from the ship. These results suggest that artificial light from traditional sampling platforms may bias studies of zooplankton abundance and diel migration within the upper 100 m. These findings underscore the need for alternative sampling methods such as autonomous platforms, particularly in dim-light conditions, to collect more accurate and representative physical and biological data for ecological studies. In addition to research cruises and sampling, anthropogenic light pollution from predicted increases in shipping, oil and gas exploration, and light-fishing are anticipated to impact the diel rhythms of zooplankton behavior all around the globe.

Authors:
Jørgen Berge (Norwegian University of Technology and Science; UiT The Arctic University of Norway)
Martin Ludvigsen (Norwegian University of Technology and Science; University Centre in Svalbard)
Maxime Geoffroy (UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Memorial University of Newfoundland)
Jonathan H. Cohen (University of Delaware)
Pedro R. De La Torre (Norwegian University of Technology and Science)
Stein M. Nornes (Norwegian University of Technology and Science)
Hanumant Singh (Northeastern University)
Asgeir J. Sørensen (Norwegian University of Technology and Science)
Malin Daase (Norwegian University of Technology and Science)
Geir Johnsen (Norwegian University of Technology and Science; Norwegian University of Technology and Science)

Investigating variability and change in subpolar Southern Ocean pCO2 via time-series and float data

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, November 6th, 2018

The Southern Ocean dominates the mean global ocean sink for anthropogenic carbon, but its sparse sampling relative to other basins limits our capacity to quantify carbon uptake and accompanying seasonal to interannual variability, which is critical to predicting future ocean carbon uptake and storage. Since 2002, underway pCO₂measurements collected as part of the Drake Passage Time-series (DPT) Program have informed our understanding of seasonally varying air-sea pCO₂gradients and by inference, the carbon fluxes in this region. Understanding whether Drake Passage air-sea fluxes are representative of the broader subpolar Southern Ocean was the focus of a recent study in Biogeosciences.

Top left panel: Mean surface ocean seasonal pCO2 cycle estimate for datasets from the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) in the subpolar Southern Ocean: black- SOCAT within the Drake Passage (DP) region; green- SOCAT outside the DP region; blue- all SOCAT in Southern Ocean Subpolar Seasonally Stratified (SPSS) biome; red- Self Organizing Map Feed-forward Network (SOM-FFN) product. Shading represents 1 standard error for biome-scale monthly means driven by interannual variability. Bar plot indicates the number of years containing observations in a given month (maximum of 15 years).
Top right panel: Mean surface ocean pCO2 seasonal cycle estimate for black: underway Drake Passage Time-series data for years 2002–2016; purple: DPT for years 2016–2017 to match years covered by the floats; and orange: SOCCOM floats. Seasonal cycles are shown on an 18-month cycle, calculated from a monthly mean time series with the atmospheric correction to year 2017. Shading represents 1 standard error accounting for the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the sample and the measurement error (2.7 % or ±11 µatm at a pCO2 of 400 µatm for floats; ±2 µatm for DPT data) combined using the square root of the sum of squares.

An analysis of available Southern Ocean pCO₂ data from inside vs. outside the Drake Passage showed agreement in the timing and amplitude of seasonal pCO₂ variations, suggesting that the seasonality so carefully recorded by DPT is in fact representative of the broader subpolar Southern Ocean. DPT’s high temporal resolution sampling is critical to constraining estimates of the seasonal cycle of surface pCO₂ in this region, as wintertime underway pCO₂ data remain sparse outside the Drake Passage. Comparisons of the DPT data to an emerging dataset of float-estimated pCO₂ from the SOCCOM (Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling) project showed that both shipboard and autonomous platforms capture the expected seasonal cycle for the subpolar Southern Ocean, with an austral wintertime peak driven by deep mixing and a summertime low driven by biological uptake. However, the seasonal cycle derived from float-estimated pCO₂ has a larger seasonal amplitude compared to the DPT data due to an earlier and much lower observed summertime minimum.

The Drake Passage Time-series illustrates the large variability of surface ocean pCO₂ in the Southern Ocean and exemplifies the value of sustained observations for understanding changing ocean carbon uptake in this dynamic region. Coordinated monitoring efforts that combine a robust ship-based observational network with a well-calibrated array of autonomous biogeochemical floats will improve and expand our understanding of the Southern Ocean carbon cycle in the future.

Authors:
Amanda R. Fay (Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory)
Nicole S. Lovenduski (University of Colorado)
Galen A. McKinley (Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory)
David R. Munro (University of Colorado)
Colm Sweeney (University of Colorado, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory)
Alison R. Gray (University of Washington)
Peter Landschützer (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany)
Britton B. Stephens (National Center for Atmospheric Research)
Taro Takahashi (Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory)
Nancy Williams (Oregon State University)

Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

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