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Archive for changing ocean chemistry

New over-determined CO2 system solver QUODcarb

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, May 29th, 2025

Do you work with over-determined datasets of seawater carbon dioxide system chemistry? QUODcarb (Quantifying Uncertainty in an Over-Determined marine carbonate system), a new over-determined CO2-system solver is described in the recently published “QUODcarb: A Bayesian solver for over-determined datasets of seawater carbon dioxide system chemistry.” The Bayesian formulation of the novel solver and demonstrates its use on an over-determined dataset from the Gulf of Mexico (COMECC-3) that included measurements of DIC, AT, pH, pCO2, and [CO3]. The over-determined calculations, with self-consistent uncertainty quantification, can calculate carbonate ion concentration uncertainty within the GOA-ON climate uncertainty target of 1% with implications for ocean acidification monitoring projects.

Find the Matlab code on GitHub: https://github.com/fprimeau/QUODcarb

Figure caption: Diagram depicting the measured quantities (left side) and the use of thermodynamic constant (pK) formulations and mass balance total (_T) formulations in seawater carbonate chemistry calculations. Adapted from Figure 1 in Carter et al., 2024 a, to illustrate how QUODcarb can replace CO2SYS calculations to include three or more carbonate variable measurements in over-determined calculations while also enabling uncertainty quantification.
Physical measurements are shown with pink backgrounds, mass balance total contents are shown with light green backgrounds, thermodynamic constants are in gray, and carbonate chemistry variables are in yellow. Temperature dependent carbonate chemistry measurements (e.g., pH and pCO2) may be included at different input temperatures. The calculator reflects the analogy that QUODcarb acts as a calculator for solving the system of nonlinear equations.

Authors
Marina Fennell (University of California, Irvine)
Francois Primeau (University of California, Irvine)

The ocean is shifting toward phosphorus limitation

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, February 28th, 2025

Biogeochemical models predict that ocean warming is weakening the vertical transport of nutrients to the upper ocean, with severe implications for marine productivity. However, nutrient concentrations across the ocean surface often fall below detection limits, making it difficult to observe long-term changes.

In a recent study in PNAS, we analyzed over 30,000 nitrate and phosphate depth profiles observed between 1972 and 2022 to quantify nutricline depths, where nutrient concentrations are reliably detected. These depths accurately represent nutrient supplies in a global model, allowing us to assess long-term trends. Over the past five decades, upper ocean phosphate has mostly declined worldwide, while nitrate has remained mostly stable. Model simulations support that this difference is likely due to nitrogen fixation replenishing upper ocean nitrate, whereas phosphate has no equivalent biological source.

Figure caption: Five decades of global and regional nutricline depth data reveal declining phosphate-to-nitrate trends. Nutricline depths were defined based on threshold concentrations of 3 μmol kg−1 nitrate (TNO3) and 3/16 μmol kg−1 phosphate (TPO4). Site-specific trends were quantified for each unique pair of geographic coordinates where sufficient data was available (TNO3, n = 1,859 sites; TPO4, n = 1,641 sites). Shown are 95% confidence intervals (CI95%) calculated for each median trend by generating 10,000 bootstrap samples. The curves over the histograms depict the kernel densities. The sets of error bars from top to bottom are the interquartile ranges of TNO3 and TPO4 from a monthly climatology, the total observations, and the total observations with added measurement error.

These findings suggest that the ocean is becoming more limited in phosphorus. This decline could make phytoplankton less nutritious for marine animals. Fish larvae growth rates correlate with phosphorus availability in the ecosystem, so intensifying phosphorus limitation may greatly impact fisheries worldwide.

Authors
Skylar Gerace (University of California, Irvine)
Jun Yu (University of California, Irvine)
Keith Moore (University of California, Irvine)
Adam Martiny (University of California, Irvine)

@UCI_OCEANS

Enhanced-warming Kuroshio Current experiences rapid seawater acidification and CO2 increase

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, March 30th, 2023

In order to project the future states of the climate and the marine ecosystem it is vital to understand the long-term changes in ocean carbon chemistry driven by anthropogenic influence. A paucity of data make the rates of seawater acidification and partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) rise on ocean margins highly uncertain.

Figure 1. Graphic summary of 9 years of data from the Kuroshio Current time-series: (a) under the influences of only atmospheric CO2 increase, (b) the combined effect of atmospheric CO2 increase, SST increase, and additional DIC supply, (c) annually averaged air-sea CO2 flux decrease, (d) Projected seawater pCO2 increase under SST rise and sustained DIC increase.

A recent study in Marine Pollution Bulletin documented the rapid increase of seawater pCO₂ (3.70±0.57 matm year^-1) and acidification (pH at -0.0033±0.0009 unit year^-1) along Kuroshio in the East China Sea (Figure 1). These findings were based on nine years of time-series data ( 2010-2018) which are now available on the website of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). These trends are significantly greater than the expected rates from CO₂air-sea equilibrium and those reported from other oceanic time-series studies. Interestingly, they showed the contribution of each parameter such as sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and normalized dissolved inorganic carbon (nDIC) and total alkalinity (nTA) to the pCO₂ variability. Seawater warming caused rapid rates of pCO₂increase and acidification under sustained DIC increase. The faster pCO₂growth relative to the atmosphere resulted in the CO₂uptake through the air-sea exchange declining by ~50% (~-0.8 to -0.4 mol C m^-2 y^-1) over the study period.

If this trend continues and the atmospheric CO₂increases at its current rate, the rapid warming Kuroshio regions could change from a sink to a source of CO₂ , and cause a loss of oceanic CO₂ uptake in the near future (ca. 2030-2040). Further, other “warming hotspots” in the global ocean along western boundary currents with a continuous DIC supply may exhibit similarly accelerated acidification and pCO₂ rise. This could lead to a significant reduction in ocean CO₂ uptake.

Authors:
Shou-En Tsao (Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taiwan)
Po-Yen Shen (Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taiwan)
Chun-Mao Tseng^* (Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taiwan)

Drivers of recent Chesapeake Bay warming

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, August 26th, 2022

Coastal water temperatures have been increasing globally with more frequent marine heat waves threatening marine life and nearshore communities reliant upon these ecosystems. Often, this warming is assumed to be uniform in space and time; however, this is not the case in the Chesapeake Bay, where warming waters play a major role in exacerbating low oxygen levels and indirectly limiting the efficacy of nutrient reduction efforts on land.

New research published in the Journal of the American Water Resources Association combined long-term observations and a hydrodynamic model to quantify the temporal and spatial variability in warming Chesapeake Bay waters, and identify the contributions of different mechanisms driving these historical temperature changes. While winter temperatures have warmed by less than a half a degree over the past 30 years, summer temperatures have warmed by nearly 1.5 °C, with similar increases at the surface and bottom. In cooler months, the atmosphere was the dominant driver of warming throughout the majority of the Bay, but oceanic warming explained more than half of the increased summer temperatures in the southern Bay nearest the Atlantic.

Figure 1: Relative contribution of different factors to warm-month Chesapeake Bay temperature change over the period 1985-2015. Percentages correspond to average main channel contributions for each component.

Warming temperatures have potentially significant implications for the future size of the Chesapeake Bay dead zone, and the marine species directly affected by these low oxygen conditions. Better quantifying warming contributions from the atmosphere, ocean, sea level, and rivers will also help constrain regional temperature projections throughout the estuary. More accurate projections of future Bay temperatures can help coastal managers better understand the potential for invasive species expansion and endemic species loss, impacts to fisheries and aquaculture, and how changes to ecosystem processes may impact coastal communities dependent on a healthy Bay.

Authors:
Kyle E. Hinson (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary)
Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary)
Pierre St-Laurent (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary)
Fei Da (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary)
Raymond G. Najjar (The Pennsylvania State University)

Why are sand lance embryos so sensitive to future high CO2-oceans?

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, August 26th, 2022

Two decades of ocean acidification experiments have shown that elevated CO₂ can affect many traits in fish early life stages. Only few species, however, show direct CO₂-induced survival reductions. This may partly reflect a bias in our current empirical record, which is dominated by species from nearshore tropical-to-temperate environments. There, these organisms already experience highly variable CO₂ conditions. In contrast, fishes from more offshore habitats, especially at higher latitudes are adapted to more CO₂-stable conditions, which could make them more CO₂-sensitive. This group of fishes is still underrepresented in the literature, despite its enormous commercial and ecological importance.

To help address this gap, we conducted new experimental work on northern sand lance Ammodytes dubius, a key forage fish on offshore Northwest Atlantic sand banks with trophic links to more than 70 different predator species of fish, squid, seabirds, and marine mammals. On Stellwagen Bank in the southern Gulf of Maine, sand lance are the ‘backbone’ of the eponymous National Marine Sanctuary.

We followed up on the intriguing findings of a pilot study a few years ago. Over two years and two trials, we again produced embryos from wild, Stellwagen Bank spawners and reared them at several pCO₂ levels (~400−2000 μatm) in combination with static and dynamic temperatures. Again, we observed consistently large CO₂-induced reductions in hatching success (-23% at 1,000 µatm, -61% at ~2,000 µatm), but this time the effects were temperature-independent.

Intriguingly, we again saw that many sand lance embryos at high CO₂ treatments did not merely arrest in their development (indicative of acidosis), but appeared to develop fully to hatch but were somehow incapable of doing so. We show several lines of evidence supporting the hypothesis that CO₂ directly impairs hatching in this species. Most fish rely on hatching enzymes that help embryos break the chorion (egg shell), but these ubiquitous enzymes may work less efficiently under high CO₂, low pH conditions.

For additional context, we also derived long-term, seasonal pCO₂ projections specifically for Stellwagen Bank, which together with the experimental data suggested that increasing CO₂ levels alone could reduce sand lance hatching success to 71% of contemporary levels by the year 2100.

We believe that the importance of sand lances as forage fishes across most northern hemisphere shelf ecosystem warrants a strategic effort of OA researchers to begin testing other sand lance species or populations to understand the magnitude of the problem and its underlying mechanisms.

Authors:
Hannes Baumann (University of Connecticut)
Lucas Jones (University of Connecticut)
Christopher Murray (University of Washington)
Samantha Siedlecki (University of Connecticut)
Michael Alexander (NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory)
Emma Cross (Southern Connecticut State University)

How does the competition between phytoplankton and bacteria for iron alter ocean biogeochemical cycles?

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, August 26th, 2022

Free-living bacteria play a key role in cycling essential biogeochemical resources in the ocean, including iron, via their uptake, transformation, and release of organic matter throughout the water column. Bacteria process half of the ocean’s primary production, remineralize dissolved organic matter, and re-direct otherwise lost organic matter to higher trophic levels. For these reasons, it is crucial to understand what factors limit the growth of bacteria and how bacteria activities impact global ocean biogeochemical cycles.

In a recent study, Pham and colleagues used a global ocean ecosystem model to dive into how iron limits the growth of free-living marine bacteria, how bacteria modulate ocean iron cycling, and the consequences to marine ecosystems of the competition between bacteria and phytoplankton for iron.

Figure 1: (a) Iron limitation status of bacteria in December, January, and February (DJF) in the surface ocean. Low values (in blue color = close to zero) mean that iron is the limiting factor for the growth of bacteria; (b) Bacterial iron consumption in the upper 120m of the ocean and (c) Changes (anomalies) in export carbon production when bacteria have a high requirement for iron.

Through a series of computer simulations performed in the global ocean ecosystem model, the authors found that iron is a limiting factor for bacterial growth in iron-limited regions in the Southern Ocean, the tropical, and the subarctic Pacific due to the high iron requirement and iron uptake capability of bacteria. Bacteria act as an iron sink in the upper ocean due to their significant iron consumption, a rate comparable to phytoplankton. The competition between bacteria and phytoplankton for iron alters phytoplankton bloom dynamics, ocean carbon export, and the availability of dissolved organic carbon needed for bacterial growth. These results suggest that earth system models that omit bacteria ignore an important organism modulating biogeochemical responses of the ocean to future changes.

Authors:
Anh Le-Duy Pham (Laboratoire d’Océanographie et de Climatologie: Expérimentation et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), IPSL, CNRS/UPMC/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France)
Olivier Aumont (Laboratoire d’Océanographie et de Climatologie: Expérimentation et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), IPSL, CNRS/UPMC/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France)
Lavenia Ratnarajah (University of Liverpool, United Kingdom)
Alessandro Tagliabue (University of Liverpool, United Kingdom)

What can algae tell us about translating laboratory science to nature?

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, June 9th, 2022

Ocean acidification research has grown over the past few decades. Much of recent research documents negative impacts of changing carbonate chemistry on calcifying marine organisms in laboratory experiments. At the 2018 Ocean Acidification PI Meeting, a group of us asked “Can these laboratory responses to ocean acidification be scaled up to accurately predict the responses of marine ecosystems?” To answer this research question, we developed a semi-quantitative synthesis of benthic calcifying algae responses to ocean acidification, recently published in the ICES Journal of Marine Science.

Figure 1. Comparing directional responses of individuals and communities to acidification in laboratory and field settings highlights mismatches. Specifically, field studies document higher proportion of negative responses compared to laboratory experiments. We provide a series of recommendations for future research to better bridge this gap of understanding in responses to ocean acidification. Figure modified from Page et al. 2022.

We detail in the paper how the proportion of positive, neutral, and negative responses in laboratory experiments often didn’t match field observations. Additionally, laboratory experiments mainly report short-term responses (days to weeks) across tropical and temperate locations. In contrast, field studies emphasize long-term responses (months to years) from fewer global locations. Using our synthesis, we developed nine recommendations that will enhance our ability to translate laboratory experiment results into actual responses of marine taxa to ongoing and future acidification in the natural environment. These future research directions are applicable not only to ocean acidification studies but can be directly applied to the broader field of climate change. We hope these recommendations will lead to greater confidence in our projections of climate change impacts at different ecological scales, and better inform the conservation and management of our valuable marine ecosystems.

Backstory

Initially, we set out to answer this research question through a meta-analysis comparing the effect size of the impacts of ocean acidification on benthic calcifying macroalgae in laboratory and field settings. We quickly realized this approach was not going to work because of the much smaller number of responses recorded in field settings, the different methods used, and response parameters measured between the laboratory and field; these differences made calculating and comparing effect sizes impossible. Therefore, we landed on the approach of conducting a semi-quantitative synthesis to compare directional responses in laboratory and field settings. The results of this synthesis and the process of developing a robust research approach to answer our question inspired us to discuss and develop the recommendations for future research presented in the paper.

Authors (affils and Twitter handles)
Heather N. Page (Sea Education Association) @heathernicopage
Keisha D. Bahr (Texas A&M University – Corpus Christi) @thebahrlab
Tyler Cyronak (Nova Southeastern University) @tcyronak
Elizabeth B. Jewett (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) @LibbyJewett
Maggie D. Johnson (King Abdullah University of Science and Technology) @MaggieDJohnson
Sophie J. McCoy (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) @MarEcology

Zooplankton evolutionary rescue is limited by warming and acidification interactions

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, November 19th, 2021

A key issue facing ocean global change scientists is predicting the fate of biota under the combined effects of ocean warming and acidification (OWA). In addition to the constraints of studying multifactor drivers, predictions are hampered by few evolutionary studies, especially for animal populations. Evolutionary studies are essential to assess the possibility of evolutionary rescue under OWA– the recovery of fitness that prevents population extirpation in the face of environmental change.

Figure 1. Population fitness of the copepod Acartia tonsa vs generation under ambient, AM (18^oC, 400 µat pCO₂), ocean warming, OW (22^oC, 400 µat pCO₂), ocean acidification, ocean acidification (18^oC, 2000 µat pCO₂), and ocean warming and acidification ( 22^oC, 2000 µat pCO₂). Shown are means and 95% confidence intervals around the mean. The purple line shows that while fitness decreased after the 12^th generation, it was still considerably higher than at generation zero. Treatment lines are offset for clarity. N_o and N_τ (Y-axis legend) represent population size at the beginning and end of a generation (τ), and their ratio is the population fitness. Adapted from Dam et al. (2021).

A paper by Dam et al. published in Nature Climate Change examined the response of a ubiquitous copepod (zooplankter) to OWA for 25 generations to test for evolutionary rescue (Fig. 1). Using a suite of life-history traits, the researchers determined population fitness (the net reproductive rate per generation) under ambient, ocean warming, ocean acidification and OWA conditions. While population fitness decreased drastically under OWA conditions, it recovered in a few generations. However, after 12 generations under OWA, in contrast to OW or OA, fitness started to decrease again, suggesting incomplete evolutionary rescue driven by antagonistic interactions between warming and acidification. Such interactions add complexity to predictions of the fate of the oceanic biota under climate change.

Limited copepod evolutionary rescue would mean lower fisheries yields under OWA conditions as copepods are a main food source for forage fish. Copepods are also important vectors of the sequestration of CO₂ to deeper waters of the ocean. Limited copepod adaptation under OWA could weaken the efficiency of the biological carbon pump.

Authors:
Hans G. Dam (University of Connecticut)
James de Mayo (University of Connecticut)
Gihong Park (University of Connecticut)
Lydia Norton (University of Connecticut)
Xuejia He (Jinan University, China)
Michael B. Finiguerra (University of Connecticut)
Hannes Baumann (University of Connecticut)
Reid S. Brennn (University of Vermont)
Melissa H. Pespeni (University of Vermont)

Introducing the Coastal Ocean Data Analysis Product in North America (CODAP-NA)

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, October 22nd, 2021

Coastal ecosystems are hotspots for commercial and recreational fisheries, and aquaculture industries that are susceptible to change or economic loss due to ocean acidification. These coastal ecosystems support about 90% of the global fisheries yield and 80% of the known marine fish species, and sustain ecosystem services worth $27.7 Trillion globally (a number larger than the U.S. economy). Despite the importance of these areas and economies, internally-consistent data products for water column carbonate and nutrient chemistry data in the coastal ocean—vital to understand and predict changes in these systems—currently do not exist. A recent study published in Earth Syst. Sci. Data compiled and quality controlled discrete sampling-based data—inorganic carbon, oxygen, and nutrient chemistry, and hydrographic parameters collected from the entire North American ocean margins—to create a data product called the Coastal Ocean Data Analysis Product for North America (CODAP-NA) to fill the gap. This effort will promote future OA research, modeling, and data synthesis in critically important coastal regions to help advance the OA adaptation, mitigation, and planning efforts by North American coastal communities; and provides a foothold for future synthesis efforts in the coastal environment.

Figure caption. Sampling stations of the CODAP-NA data product.

Authors:
Li-Qing Jiang (University of Maryland; NOAA NCEI)
Richard A. Feely (NOAA PMEL)
Rik Wanninkhof (NOAA AOML)
Dana Greeley (NOAA PMEL)
Leticia Barbero (University of Miami; NOAA AOML)
Simone Alin (NOAA PMEL)
Brendan R. Carter (University of Washington; NOAA PMEL)
Denis Pierrot (NOAA AOML)
Charles Featherstone (NOAA AOML)
James Hooper (University of Miami; NOAA AOML)
Chris Melrose (NOAA NEFSC)
Natalie Monacci (University of Alaska Fairbanks)
Jonathan Sharp (University of Washington; NOAA PMEL)
Shawn Shellito (University of New Hampshire)
Yuan-Yuan Xu (University of Miami; NOAA AOML)
Alex Kozyr (University of Maryland; NOAA NCEI)
Robert H. Byrne (University of South Florida)
Wei-Jun Cai (University of Delaware)
Jessica Cross (NOAA PMEL)
Gregory C. Johnson (NOAA PMEL)
Burke Hales (Oregon State University)
Chris Langdon (University of Miami)
Jeremy Mathis (Georgetown University)
Joe Salisbury (University of New Hampshire)
David W. Townsend (University of Maine)

The ephemeral and elusive COVID blip in ocean carbon

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, September 20th, 2021

The global pandemic of the last nearly two years has affected all of us on a daily and long-term basis. Our planet is not exempt from these impacts. Can we see a signal of COVID-related CO₂ emissions reductions in the ocean? In a recent study, Lovenduski et al. apply detection and attribution analysis to output from an ensemble of COVID-like simulations of an Earth system model to answer this question. While it is nearly impossible to detect a COVID-related change in ocean pH, the model produces a unique fingerprint in air-sea DpCO₂ that is attributable to COVID. Challengingly, the large interannual variability in the climate system makes this fingerprint difficult to detect at open ocean buoy sites.

This study highlights the challenges associated with detecting statistically meaningful changes in ocean carbon and acidity following CO₂ emissions reductions, and reminds the reader that it may be difficult to observe intentional emissions reductions — such as those that we may enact to meet the Paris Climate Agreement – in the ocean carbon system.

Figure caption: The fingerprint (pink line) of COVID-related CO2 emissions reductions in global-mean surface ocean pH and air-sea DpCO2, as estimated by an ensemble of COVID-like simulations in an Earth system model. While the pH fingerprint is not particularly exciting, the air-sea DpCO2 fingerprint displays a temporary weakening of the ocean carbon sink in 2021 due to COVID emissions reductions.

Authors:
Nikki Lovenduski (University of Colorado Boulder)
Neil Swart (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis)
Adrienne Sutton (NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)
John Fyfe (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis)
Galen McKinley (Columbia University and Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory)
Chris Sabine (University of Hawai’i at Manoa)
Nancy Williams (University of South Florida)

Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

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