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Archive for changing marine ecosystems

Chasing Sargassum in the Atlantic Ocean

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, March 25th, 2020

The pelagic brown alga Sargassum forms a habitat that hosts a rich diversity of life, including other algae, crustaceans, fish, turtles, and birds in both the Gulf of Mexico and the area of the Atlantic Ocean known as the Sargasso Sea. However, high abundances of Sargassum have been appearing in the tropical Atlantic, in some cases 3,000 miles away from the Sargasso Sea. This is a new phenomenon. Nearly every year since 2011, thick mats of Sargassum have blanketed the coastlines of many countries in tropical Africa and the Americas. When masses of Sargassum wash ashore, the seaweed rots, attracts insects, and repels beachgoers, with adverse ecological and socioeconomic effects. A new study in Progress in Oceanography sheds light on the mystery.

Figure 1. The hypothesized route of Sargasso Sea Sargassum to the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. The solid black lines indicate the climatological surface flow, the dashed black lines indicate areas where there was variability from the average conditions.

The authors analyzed reams of satellite data and used computer models of the Earth’s winds and ocean currents to try to understand why these large mats started to arrive in coastal areas in 2011. A strengthening and southward shift of the westerlies in the winter of 2009-2010 caused ocean currents to move the Sargassum toward the Iberian Peninsula, then southward in the Canary Current along Africa, where it entered the tropics by the middle of 2010 (Figure 1). The tropical Atlantic provided ample sunlight, warmer sea temperatures, and nutrients for the algae to flourish. In 2011, Sargassum spread across the entire tropical Atlantic in a massive belt north of the Equator, along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and these blooms have appeared nearly every year since. Utilizing international oceanographic studies done in the Atlantic since the 1960s, and multiple satellite sensors combined with Sargassum distribution patterns, the authors discovered that the trade winds aggregate the Sargassum under the ITCZ and mix the water deep enough to bring new nutrients to the surface and sustain the bloom.

Improved understanding and predictive capacity of Sargassum bloom occurrence will help us better constrain and quantify its impacts on our ecosystems, which can inform management of valuable fisheries and protected species.

Authors:
Elizabeth Johns (NOAA AMOL)
Rick Lumpkin (NOAA AMOL)
Nathan Putman (LGL Ecological Research Associates)
Ryan Smith (NOAA AMOL)
Frank Muller-Karger (University of South Florida)
Digna Rueda-Roa (University of South Florida)
Chuanmin Hu (University of South Florida)
Mengqiu Wang (University of South Florida)
Maureen Brooks (University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science)
Lewis Gramer (NOAA AMOL and University of Miami)
Francisco Werner (NOAA Fisheries)

Where the primary production goes determines whether you catch tuna or cod

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, September 6th, 2019

Fishes are incredibly diverse, fill various roles in their ecosystems, and are an important resource—economically, socially, and nutritionally. The relationship between primary productivity and fish catches is not straightforward; fisheries oceanographers and managers have long struggled to predict abundances and fully understand the controls of cross-ecosystem differences in fish abundances and assemblages. A recent study in Progress in Oceanography modeled the relationships between fish abundances and assemblages and ecosystem factors such as physical properties and plankton productivity.

The mechanistic model simulated feeding, growth, reproduction, and mortality of small pelagic forage fish, large pelagic fish, and demersal (bottom-dwelling) fish in the global ocean using plankton food web estimates and ocean conditions from a high-resolution earth system model of the 1990s. Modeled fish assemblages were more related to the separation of secondary production into pelagic zooplankton or benthic fauna secondary production than to primary productivity. Specifically, the ratio of pelagic to benthic production drove spatial differences in dominance by large pelagic fish or by demersal fish. Similarly, demersal fish abundance was highly sensitive to the efficiency of energy transfer from exported surface production to benthic fauna.

The model results offer a systematic understanding of how marine fish communities are structured by spatially varying environmental conditions. With global climate change, the expected decrease in exported primary production would lead to fewer demersal fish around the world. This model provides a framework for testing the effect of changing conditions on fish communities at a global scale, which can also help inform managers of potential impacts on economic, social, and nutritional resources worldwide.

Figure 1: (A) Sample food web with three fish types, two habitats, two prey categories, and feeding interactions (arrows). Dashed arrow denotes feeding only occurs in shelf regions with depth <200 m. (B) Fraction of large pelagic vs. demersal fishes (LP/(LP+D)) as a function of the ratio of zooplankton production lost to higher predation (Zoop) to detritus flux to the seafloor (Bent) averaged over large marine ecosystems. Solid line: predicted linear model response, dashed lines: standard error. (Lower panels) Circles=mean biomasses (g m^-2) and lines=fluxes of biomass (g m^-2 d^-1) through the pelagic (top 100m) and benthic components of the food webs at two test locations, (C) Peruvian Upwelling (PUP) ecosystem and (D) Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) shelf ecosystem. Circles and lines scale with the modeled biomasses and fluxes. Circle color key: Gray=net primary productivity (NPP); yellow=medium and large zooplankton; red=forage fish; blue=large pelagic fish; brown=benthos; green=demersal fish.

Authors:
Colleen M. Petrik (Princeton University, Texas A&M University)
Charles A. Stock (NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Ken H. Andersen (Technical University of Denmark)
P. Daniël van Denderen (Technical University of Denmark)
James R. Watson (Oregon State University)

Predicting marine ecosystem futures

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, September 4th, 2019

Earth System Models (ESMs) are powerful and effective tools for exploring and predicting marine ecosystem response to environmental change, including biogeochemical processes that underlie threats to ocean health such as ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and changes in productivity. Seasonal to interannual marine biogeochemical predictions with ESMs hold great promise for exploring links between climate and marine resources such as fisheries but have thus far been challenged by limitations associated with observational initialization, model structure, and computational availability. In a recent study published in Science, authors integrated the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s (GFDL) COBALT (Carbon, Ocean Biogeochemistry and Lower Trophics) marine biogeochemical model with seasonal to multi-annual climate predictions from GFDL’s CM2.1 climate model to examine marine ecosystem futures on these shorter time scales. The global biogeochemical forecasts were initialized on the first of each month between 1991 and 2017 with 12 ensemble members in each prediction, creating a database of nearly 4000 forecasts and 8000 simulation years. The model skillfully predicted seasonal to multi-annual chlorophyll fluctuations in many ocean regions (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Prediction skill in reproducing observed variations of monthly chlorophyll anomaly. (Top) Correlation coefficient between predicted and observed chlorophyll at 1-3 month lead time during the period 1997-2017. Stippled areas indicate that the correlation is significantly greater than 0 with 95% confidence. Areas with less than 80% satellite chlorophyll coverage are masked in grey. (Lower panels) Correlation coefficient between predicted and observed chlorophyll as a function of forecast initialization month (x-axis) and lead time (y-axis) in tropical Pacific, Indian, North Atlantic, North Pacific, and South Pacific oceans. In all panels, the darker the red, the higher the correlation up to a perfect correlation of 1.0. White indicates no correlation, while blue indicates negative correlation.

These results suggest that annual fish catches in selected large marine ecosystems can be predicted from chlorophyll and sea surface temperature anomalies up to 2-3 years in advance. Given that fisheries predictions sometimes failed to the point of commercial stock collapse in the past, this prediction capacity could be vital for fisheries managers. Biogeochemical prediction systems can extend beyond sea surface temperature and chlorophyll to include other potential drivers (e.g., oxygen, acidity, net primary production, zooplankton, etc.) as highly valuable tools for marine resource managers of dynamic and changing ecosystems.

Authors:
Jong-Yeon Park (Princeton Univ, NOAA GDFL, Chonbuk National Univ., Korea)
Charles A. Stock, John P. Dunne, Xiaosong Yang, and Anthony Rosati (NOAA GFDL)

Zooplankton-fueled carbon export is changing in the North Atlantic Ocean

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, June 10th, 2019

Zooplankton-mediated carbon export is an important, but variable and relatively unconstrained part of the biological carbon pump—the processes that fix atmospheric carbon dioxide in organic material and transport it from the upper sunlit ocean to depth. Changes in the biological pump impact the climate system, but are challenging to quantify because such analyses require spatially and temporally explicit information about biological, chemical, and physical properties of the ocean, where empirical observations are in short supply.

A recent study in Nature, Ecology and Evolution focused on copepods in the northern half of the North Atlantic Ocean, where the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) time series program has documented surface plankton abundance and taxonomic composition for nearly six decades. Copepods transport carbon passively by producing sinking fecal pellets while feeding near the sea surface, and actively via daily and seasonal migrations to deeper waters where carbon is released through respiration, defecation, and mortality. Using allometry, metabolic theory, and an optimal behavior model, the authors examined patterns of passive and active carbon transport from 1960 to 2014 and sensitivity of carbon export to different model inputs.

Figure caption: Spatial distribution and change, from 1960 to 2014, of modeled copepod-mediated carbon flux: top left – mean passive carbon flux (sinking fecal pellets), bottom left – change in passive carbon flux, top right – mean active carbon flux (respiration plus fecal pellets produced during diel vertical migration), bottom right – change in active carbon flux.

The authors observed that from southern Iceland to the Gulf of Maine, copepod-mediated carbon transport has increased over the last six decades, with the highest rates around 30 mgC m^-2 y^-1 each decade for passive flux, and 4 mgC m^-2 y^-1 each decade for active flux. Meanwhile, it has decreased across much of the more temperate central northern North Atlantic with highest rates around 69 mgC m^-2 y^-1 each decade for passive flux and 8 mgC m^-2 y^-1 each decade for active flux. This pattern is largely driven by changes in copepod population distributions and community structure, specifically the distributions of large and abundant species (e.g. Calanus spp.). These results suggest that shifts in species distributions driven by a changing global climate are already impacting ecosystem function across the northern North Atlantic Ocean. These shifts are not latitudinally uniform, thus highlighting the complexity of marine ecosystems. This study demonstrates the importance of these sustained plankton measurements and how plankton-mediated carbon fluxes can be mechanistically implemented in next-generation biogeochemical models.

Authors:
Philipp Brun (Technical University of Denmark and Swiss Federal Research Institute)
Karen Stamieszkin (University of Maine, Bigelow Lab and Virginia Institute of Marine Science)
Andre W. Visser (Technical University of Denmark)
Priscilla Licandro (Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, and Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Italy)
Mark R. Payne (Technical University of Denmark)
Thomas Kiørboe (Technical University of Denmark)

Also see OCB2019 plenary session: The effect of size on ocean processes (allometry) and implications for export (Thursday, June 27, 2019)

Ocean microbes drive fluctuating nutrient loss

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, May 28th, 2019

The removal of bioavailable nitrogen (N) by anaerobic microbes in the ocean’s oxygen deficient zones (ODZs) is thought to vary over time primarily as a result of climate impacts on ocean circulation and primary production. However, a recent study in PNAS using a data-constrained model of the microbial ecosystem in the world’s largest ODZ revealed that internal species oscillations cause local- to basin-scale fluctuations in the rate of N loss, even in a completely stable physical environment. Such ecosystem oscillations have been hypothesized for nearly a century in idealized models, but are rarely shown to persist in a three-dimensional ocean circulation model.

Figure caption. Ecological variability in the basin-scale rate of nitrogen loss over time (left) and in the local-scale contribution of autotrophic anammox to total N loss (right) in a model with unchanging ocean circulation. In the left panel, colors represent model simulations with different biological parameters. In the right panel, colors represent distinct locations within the ODZ in the standard model simulation.

These emergent ecosystem dynamics arise at the oxic-anoxic interface from O₂-dependent resource competition between aerobic and anaerobic microbes, and leave a unique geochemical fingerprint: infrequent spikes in ammonium that are observable in nutrient measurements from the ODZ. Non-equilibrium ecosystem behavior driven by competition among aerobic nitrifiers, anaerobic denitrifiers, and anammox bacteria also generates fluctuations in the balance of autotrophic versus heterotrophic N loss pathways that help reconcile conflicting field observations.

These internally driven fluctuations in microbial community structure partially obscure a direct correspondence between the chemical environment and microbial rates, a universal assumption in biogeochemical models. Because of the fundamental nature of the underlying mechanism, similar dynamics are hypothesized to occur across wide-ranging microbial communities in diverse habitats.

Authors:
Justin L. Penn (University of Washington)
Thomas Weber (University of Rochester),
Bonnie X. Chang (University of Washington, NOAA)
Curtis Deutsch (University of Washington)

See also the OCB2019 plenary session: Anthropogenic changes in ocean oxygen: Coastal and open ocean perspectives (Monday, June 24, 2019)

Suddenly shallow: A new aragonite saturation horizon will soon emerge in the Southern Ocean

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, May 27th, 2019

Earth System Models (ESMs) project that by the end of this century, the aragonite saturation horizon (the boundary between shallower, saturated waters and deeper, undersaturated waters that are corrosive to aragonitic shells) will shoal all the way to the surface in the Southern Ocean, yet the temporal evolution of the horizon has not been studied in much detail. Rather than a gradual shoaling, a new shallow aragonite saturation horizon emerges suddenly across many locations in the Southern Ocean between now and the end of the century (Figure 1, left), as detailed in a new study published in Nature Climate Change.

Figure 1: Maximum step-change in the depth of the aragonite saturation horizon (left), timing of the step-change (center), and cause of the change (right). Xs on the time axis (center) indicate when the shallow horizon emerges in each ensemble member. (click image to enlarge)

The emergence of the shallow aragonite saturation horizon is apparent in each member of an ensemble of climate projections from an ESM, but the step change occurs during different years (Figure 1, center). The shoaling is driven by the gradual accumulation of anthropogenic CO₂ in the Southern Ocean thermocline, where the carbonate ion concentration exhibits a local minimum and approaches undersaturation (Figure 1, right).

The abrupt shoaling of the Southern Ocean aragonite saturation horizon occurs under both business-as-usual and emission-stabilizing scenarios, indicating an inevitable and sudden decrease in the volume of suitable habitat for aragonitic organisms such as shelled pteropods, foraminifers, cold-water corals, sea urchins, molluscs, and coralline algae. Widespread reductions in these habitats may have far-reaching consequences for fisheries, economies, and livelihoods.

Authors:
Gabriela Negrete-García (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
Nicole Lovenduski (University of Colorado Boulder)

See also OCB2019 plenary session: Carbon cycle feedbacks from the seafloor (Wednesday, June 26, 2019)

Ocean color offers early warning signal of climate change’s impact on marine phytoplankton

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, April 15th, 2019

Marine phytoplankton form the foundation of the marine food web and play a crucial role in the earth’s carbon cycle. Typically, satellite-derived Chlorophyll a (Chl a) is used to evaluate trends in phytoplankton. However, it may be many decades (or longer) before we see a statistically significant signature of climate change in Chl a due to its inherently large natural variability. In a recent study in Nature Communications, authors explored how other metrics, in particular the color of the ocean, may show earlier and stronger signals of climate change at the base of the marine food web.

Figure 1. Computer model results indicating the year in which the signature of climate change impact is larger than the natural variability for (a) Chl a, and (b) remotely sensed reflectance in the blue-green waveband. White areas indicate where there is not a statistically significant change by 2100, or for regions that are currently ice-covered.

In this study, the authors use a unique marine physical-biogeochemical and ecosystem model that also captures how light penetrates the ocean and is reflected upward. The model shows that over the course of the 21^st century, remote sensing reflectance (R_RS, the ratio of upwelling radiance to the downwelling irradiance at the ocean’s surface) in the blue-green portions of the light spectrum is likely to have an earlier, more spatially extensive climate change-driven signal than Chl a (Figure 1). This is because R_RS integrates not only changes to Chl a, but also alterations in other optically important water constituents. In particular, R_RS also captures changes in phytoplankton community structure, which strongly affects ocean optics and is likely to be altered over the 21^st century. Monitoring the response of marine phytoplankton to climate change is important for predicting changes at higher trophic levels, including commercial fisheries. Our study emphasizes the importance of 1) maintaining ocean color sensor compatibility and long-term stability, particularly in the blue-green wavebands; 2) maintaining long-term in situ time-series of plankton communities – e.g., the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey and repeat stations (e.g., HOT, BATS); and 3) reducing uncertainties in satellite-derived phytoplankton community structure estimates.

Authors:
Stephanie Dutkiewicz, Oliver Jahn (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Anna E. Hickman (University of Southampton)
Stephanie Henson (National Oceanography Centre Southampton)
Claudie Beaulieu (University of California, Santa Cruz)
Erwan Monier (University of California, Davis)

Pteropod populations stable or increasing according to long-term study along the Western Antarctic Peninsula

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, March 21st, 2019

Shelled pteropods (pelagic snails) are abundant planktonic predators and prey, linking grazers and higher trophic levels and contributing to the carbon cycle via consumption and excretion. Pteropods have been heralded as bioindicators of ocean acidification, given their aragonitic shell’s susceptibility to dissolution, which could ultimately lead to declining abundance. However, pteropod population dynamics are understudied, particularly in the Southern Ocean, a region predicted to be highly impacted by both warming and ocean acidification. In a recent publication in Limnology and Oceanography, long-term data sets from the Western Antarctic Peninsula show that while there is considerable interannual variability in pteropod abundance, populations have remained stable over the past 25 years, with some pteropod species (gymnosomes (non-shelled pteropod) overall, L. antarctica and C. pyramidata (shelled pteropods) regionally) even increasing during this period (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Annual pteropod abundance anomalies for the entire Palmer Antarctica Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) study region along the Western Antarctic Peninsula. (a) Limacina helicina antarctica (shelled pteropod), (b) Gymnosomes – nonshelled pteropods that prey on shelled pteropods (p = 0.007, r² = 0.27), and (c) Clio pyramidata (shelled pteropod). Effect of environment on pteropod abundance. (d) SST vs. L. antarctica abundance, e) Sea ice advance vs. L. antarctica and Gymnosome abundance, (f) Sea ice retreat vs. C. pyramidata abundance. Data plotted are annual anomalies for each year of the time series (1993–2017). Sea ice advance is lagged 2-yr behind pteropod abundance (e.g., 2017 pteropod annual anomaly is plotted against 2015 sea ice advance annual anomaly) SST are lagged 1-yr behind L. antarctica abundance (e.g., 2017 L. antarctica annual anomaly is plotted against 2016 SST). Regression lines for significant linear relationships are shown, regression statistics are as follows: (d) SST vs. L. antarctica (circles): n = 25, p = 0.006, r² = 0.25 (e) sea ice advance vs. L. antarctica (filled-circles) and Gymnosomes (empty-circles): n = 25, p = 0.003, r² = 0.30 (dashed line); (f) sea ice retreat vs. C. pyramidata (squares): n = 14, p = 0.0003, r² = 0.64.

There was no significant influence of carbonate chemistry parameters (e.g., aragonite saturation state) on pteropod abundance, since the Western Antarctic Peninsula has yet to experience prolonged conditions characteristic of ocean acidification. However, other environmental factors such as warming and associated sea ice retreat were more influential. For example, warmer, ice-free waters in one year typically led to higher pteropod abundances the following year, suggesting that pteropods may be better adapted than expected to warming conditions due to climate change. The authors propose that earlier sea ice retreat promotes recruitment and subsequent expansion of pteropods further South, which could explain their increased abundance in this subregion. These results increase our understanding of pteropod responses to environmental variability, which is important for predicting future effects of climate change on regional carbon cycling and plankton trophic interactions in the Southern Ocean.

Authors:
Patricia S. Thibodeau (VIMS)
Deborah K. Steinberg (VIMS)
Sharon E. Stammerjohn (University of Colorado at Boulder)
Claudine Hauri (University of Alaska Fairbanks)

You better repeat it: Serial ocean acidification experiments on fish early life stages

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, March 5th, 2019

To detect potential effects of acidification on marine organisms, experimenters most commonly use within-experiment replication, but repeating the experiments themselves is rarely done. While the first approach suffices to detect major CO₂ effects, other potentially important responses may get detected and robustly quantified only via serial experimentation. A study by Baumann et al. in Biology Letters comprises a meta-analysis of 20 standard CO₂ exposure experiments conducted over six years on Atlantic silverside (Menidia menidia) offspring.

Figure 1: Robust estimate of silverside CO₂ sensitivity based on serial experimentation. (A, B) Mean CO₂ effect size calculated as the log-transformed response ratio of six early life history traits measured at 20 standard experiments between 2012-2017 (Error: bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals). (C) Seasonal change in CO₂ sensitivity in silverside early life stages. Each symbol represents an individual experiment, using offspring obtained by fertilizing wild spawners throughout their spring/summer spawning season.

Silversides are an abundant and ecologically important forage fish in the North Atlantic. The study revealed that during early life stages, Atlantic silversides tolerate pCO₂levels up to ~2,000 µatm, with seasonal shifts in sensitivity. However, this early exposure to high pCO₂ levels reduces embryo survival by 9% and overall survival by 13% (Figure 1). Future ocean acidification could cause reduced survival of these and other forage fish, and thus impact their diverse marine predators, including seabirds and commercially important fish species. This sustained experimental work resulted in the most robustly constrained estimates of average CO₂ effect sizes for a marine organism to date, demonstrating the utility of serial experimentation as a powerful tool for assessing organism responses to changing CO₂.

Authors:
Hannes Baumann
Emma L. Cross
Chris S. Murray
(all University of Connecticut)

When marine-terminating glaciers ‘pump’ the ocean

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, October 10th, 2018

How will increasing meltwater from Greenland affect the biogeochemistry of the ocean? Release of meltwater into the ocean has physical and biogeochemical effects on the local water column. With respect to nutrient availability, meltwater supplies the bioessential nutrients iron and silicic acid but is deficient in nitrate and phosphate. However, despite very low meltwater nitrate and phosphate concentrations, pronounced summertime phytoplankton blooms are observed in many, though not all, of Greenland’s large fjord systems. These unusual summertime blooms are associated with meltwater from marine-terminating glaciers. So if the meltwater itself is not supplying nitrate and phosphate that these blooms require, what is the source of the nutrients that support these blooms?

An illustration of how changing the depth of a glacier affects downstream productivity

A recent study published in Nature Communications shows that when meltwater is released below sea level under large marine-terminating glaciers, it rises rapidly towards the surface in buoyant discharge plumes. As these plumes rise, they entrain large quantities of deep, nutrient-rich seawater. This vertical transport, or ‘pumping’, of these nutrients to the surface sustains unusually high summertime productivity in Greenland’s fjords. Conversely, when meltwater is released at the ocean surface, primary production is reduced because the meltwater itself lacks the nitrate and phosphate required to fuel phytoplankton blooms. Consequently, the inland retreat of Greenland’s large marine-terminating glaciers is ultimately bad news for summertime marine phytoplankton communities. As the depth of the marine-terminating glaciers shoals, their associated nutrient ‘pumps’ collapse, which will likely have negative effects on primary production and associated inshore fisheries.

Authors:
M.J. Hopwood (GEOMAR)
D. Carroll (Jet Propulsion Laboratory)
T.J. Browning (GEOMAR)
L. Meire (Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research and Greenland Climate Research Centre)
J. Mortensen (Greenland Climate Research Centre)
S. Krisch (GEOMAR)
E.P. Achterberg (GEOMAR)

Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

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