Archive for anthropogenic carbon

A new roadmap of climate change driven ocean changes

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Wednesday, October 2nd, 2019 

When will we see significant changes in the ocean due to climate change? A new study in Nature Climate Change confirms that outcomes tied directly to the escalation of atmospheric carbon dioxide have already emerged in the existing 30-year observational record. These include sea surface warming, acidification, and increases in the rate at which the ocean removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

In contrast, processes tied indirectly to the ramp-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide through the gradual modification of climate and ocean circulation will take longer, from three decades to more than a century. These include changes in upper-ocean mixing, nutrient supply, and the cycling of carbon through marine plants and animals.

The researchers performed model simulations of potential future climate states that could result from a combination of human-made climate change and random chance (figure 1). These experiments were performed with an Earth System Model, a climate model that has an interactive carbon cycle such that changes in the climate and carbon cycle can be considered in tandem.

Figure 1: Percentage of ocean with emergent anthropogenic trends in ocean biogeochemical and physical variables. A time series of the percentage of the global ocean area with locally emergent anthropogenic trends illustrates the disparity of emergence timescales for anthropogenic changes in the ocean carbon cycle. Emergence is defined as the point in time when the LE’s signal-to-noise ratio for a linear trend referenced to the year 1990 first exceeds a magnitude of two, which represents a 95% confidence in the identification of an anthropogenic trend in the LE Ω applies to the saturation state of both the aragonite and calcite forms of calcium carbonate (CaCO3), for which the emergence times are approximately equivalent. The CaCO3 and soft-tissue pumps were calculated as the export flux at 100 m depth of CaCO3 and particulate organic carbon, respectively. The heat content was calculated as an integral over 0–700 m, whereas the oxygen (O2) inventories consider the integral 200–600 m, and chlorophyll inventories were considered over 0–500 m. NPP represents an integral over 0–100 m. All the other variables represent sea surface properties.

The finding of a 30- to 100-year delay in the emergence of effects suggests that ocean observation programs should be maintained for many decades into the future to effectively monitor the changes occurring in the ocean. The study also indicates that the detectability of some changes in the ocean would benefit from improvements to the current observational sampling strategy. These include looking deeper into the ocean for changes in phytoplankton and capturing changes in both summer and winter ocean-atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide rather than just the annual mean.

Figure 2. Venn Diagram schematic of sources of uncertainty in simulation (using Earth-System Modeling approach) and observation of changes in the Earth system. For emergence, detection or attribution of an observed or simulated signal to occur, the signal must overcome the sources of uncertainty in their respective brackets.

Many types of observational efforts, including time-series or permanent locations of continuous measurement, as well as regional sampling programs and global remote sensing platforms are critical for understanding our changing planet and improving our capacity to detect change.

Authors:
Sarah Schlunegger (Princeton University)
Keith B. Rodgers (Institute for Basic Science and Busan National University, South Korea)
Jorge L. Sarmiento (Princeton University)
Thomas L. Frölicher (University of Bern)
John P. Dunne (NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Masao Ishii (Japan Meteorological Agency)
Richard Slater (Princeton University)

 

Regional circulation changes and a growing atmospheric CO2 concentration drive accelerated anthropogenic carbon uptake in the South Pacific

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 

About one tenth of human CO2 emissions are currently being taken up by the Pacific Ocean, which makes the seawater more corrosive to the calcium carbonate shells and skeletons of the plants and animals that live there. Now, thanks to hard work by international teams of scientists from the Global Ocean Ship-based Hydrographic Investigations Program (GO-SHIP), there are decades of data, enough to test how much this anthropogenic CO2 accumulation varies throughout the Pacific Ocean and regionally on the timescales of decades.

 

Figure caption: Map of the concentration of human-emitted CO2 along the sections where data were available from more than one decade, estimated for the year 2015.

Using a new take on an old technique, along with a wide variety of repeat biogeochemical measurements, a study in Biogeochemical Cycles revealed that Pacific anthropogenic CO2 accumulation increased from the 1995-2005 decade to the 2005-2015 decade. While the magnitude of the decadal increase was consistent with increases in human CO2 emissions over this period for most of the Pacific, the rate of change was greater than expected in the South Pacific subtropical gyre. The authors suggest that recent increases in circulation in the gyre region could have delivered an unexpectedly large amount of anthropogenic CO2-laden seawater from the surface to the ocean interior. Programs like GO-SHIP will continue to be critical for tracking the fate of human CO2 emissions and associated feedbacks on climate and marine ecosystems.

 

Authors:
B. R. Carter (Univ. Washington and PMEL)
R. A. Feely, G. C. Johnson, J. L. Bullister (PMEL)
R. Wanninkhof (NOAA AOML)
S. Kouketsu, A. Murata (JAMSTEC
R. E. Sonnerup, S. Mecking (Univ. Washington)
P. C. Pardo (Univ. Tasmania)
C. L. Sabine (Univ. Hawai‘i, Mānoa)
B. M. Sloyan, B. Tilbrook (CSIRO, Australia)
K. Speer (Florida State University
L. D. Talley (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
F. J. Millero (Univ. Miami)
S. E. Wijffels (CSIRO and WHOI)
A. M. Macdonald (WHOI)
N. Gruber (ETH Zurich)

A new era of observing the ocean carbonate system

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 

Amidst a backdrop of natural variability, the ocean carbonate system is undergoing a massive anthropogenic change. To capture this anthropogenic signal and differentiate it from natural variability, carbonate observations are needed across a range of spatial and temporal scales (Figure 1), many of which are not captured by traditional oceanographic platforms. A new review of autonomous carbonate observations published in Current Climate Change Reports highlights the development and deployment of pH sensors capable of in situ measurements on autonomous platforms, which represents a major step forward in observing the ocean carbonate system. These sensors have been rigorously field-tested via large-scale deployments on profiling floats in the Southern Ocean (Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling, SOCCOM), providing an unprecedented wealth of year-round data that have demonstrated the importance of wintertime outgassing of carbon dioxide in the Southern Ocean.

Figure 1: Observational capabilities and carbonate system processes as a function of time and space. Ocean processes that affect the carbonate system (solid color shapes—labeled in the legend) are depicted as a function of the temporal and spatial scales over which they must be observed to capture important variability and/or long-term change.

Most current autonomous platforms routinely measure only a single carbonate parameter, which then requires an algorithm to estimate a second parameter so that the rest of the carbonate system can be calculated. However, the ongoing development of sensors and systems to measure, rather than estimate, other carbonate parameters may greatly reduce uncertainty in constraining the full carbonate system. It is critical that the community continue to develop and adhere to best practices for calibration and data handling as existing sensors are deployed in increasing numbers and new sensors become available. Expanding autonomous carbonate measurements will increase our understanding of how anthropogenic change impacts natural variability and will provide a means to monitor carbon uptake by the ocean in real-time at high spatial and temporal resolution. This will not only help to understand the mechanisms driving changes in the ocean carbonate system, but will allow new insights in the role of mesoscale processes in regional and global biogeochemical cycles.

 

Authors:
Seth M. Bushinsky (Princeton University/University of Hawai’i Mānoa)
Yuichiro Takeshita (Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute)
Nancy L. Williams (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory – NOAA / University of South Florida)

Efficient carbon drawdown allows for a high future carbon uptake in the North Atlantic

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 

As one of the major carbon sinks in the global ocean, the North Atlantic is a key player in mediating and ameliorating the ongoing global warming. Current projections of the North Atlantic carbon sink in a high-CO2 future vary greatly among models, with some showing that a slowdown in carbon uptake has already begun and others predicting that this slowdown will not occur until nearly 2100. To ensure the credibility of future projections as needed for finding adequate mitigation strategies, it is important to address and reduce this uncertainty.

Percentage of anthropogenically altered carbon stored in the deep North Atlantic (left panel) and North Atlantic uptake of anthropogenically altered carbon (right panel) as simulated by 11 different Earth System Models for a high CO2-future. Black x and line in left panel mark the observational estimate and its uncertainties, while blue and red shading reflect model spread, including models that simulate deep ocean storage within (blue) and outside (red) these observational uncertainties.

A new study in the Journal of Climate identified some of the mechanisms behind this ambiguity by analyzing the output of 11 Earth System Models for a high-CO2 future. The authors show that discrepancies among models largely originate around high-latitude gateways from the surface to the deep ocean. Through biological production, deep convection and subsequent transport via the deep western boundary current, these gateways remove carbon from the upper ocean. When enough carbon is removed to maintain a lower oceanic pCO2 relative to atmospheric pCO2, the ocean continues to take up carbon. The study reveals that the fraction of anthropogenic carbon that is stored below 1000 m depth is not only an indicator of current carbon removal from the upper ocean but also a predictor of future ocean carbon uptake. When models that lie outside the range of observational uncertainties in deep carbon storage (red shading, left panel of figure) were excluded, revised projections showed higher North Atlantic carbon uptake in the future with lower associated uncertainties (blue shading, right panel of figure). This result highlights the need to depart from the concept of more or less randomly chosen models when reporting on future projections and their uncertainties. Results that are more reliable and hence of better use for mitigation strategies can be gained by focusing solely on models that simulate key mechanisms within observational uncertainties.

 

Authors:
N. Goris (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway)
J.F. Tjiputra (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway)
A. Olsen (University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway)
J. Schwinger (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway)
S.K. Lauvset (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway)
E. Jeansson (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway)

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