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Adaptive emission pathways to stabilize global temperatures

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, May 11th, 2023

Around the world, countries have agreed in the Paris Agreement to limit global warming well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to reduce global warming to 1.5°C. However, large uncertainties remain about which emission pathways will allow us to reach this goal. A recent paper presents a new adaptive approach to create emission pathways and estimate the necessary emission reductions every five years, following the stocktake process of the Paris Agreement. This Adaptive Emissions Reduction Approach (AERA) is solely based on past warming rates, and emissions of CO₂ and non-CO₂ radiative agents, and explicitly does not rely on projections by Earth System Models. Updating the emission pathways every five years, circumvents uncertainties in the climate system and its transient response to cumulative emissions (TCRE). Testing with the Bern3D-LPX Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity shows that the approach works robustly across a wide range of TCREs, avoids large overshoots, and only small changes to the emission pathways are necessary every five years. This approach will allow policymakers to estimate emission pathways and create a base for international negotiations. Furthermore, it allows simulations with Earth System Models that all converge to the same temperature target to compare the climate at stabilized warming levels.

Figure caption: The three steps of the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach: 1) Estimating the past anthropogenic warming, 2) estimating the remaining emission budget, and 3) redistributing it over the future years.

Authors
Jens Terhaar (University of Bern, now Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Thomas L Frölicher (University of Bern)
Mathias T Aschwanden (University of Bern)
Pierre Friedlingstein (University of Exeter, Ecole Normale Superieure)
Fortunat Joos (University of Bern)

Twitter @JensTerhaar @froeltho @PFriedling @unibern @snsf_ch @4C_H2020 @ExeterUniMaths @Geosciences_ENS @IPSL_outreach

What drives decadal changes in the Chesapeake Bay carbonate system?

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022

Understanding decadal changes in the coastal carbonate system (CO₂-system) is essential for predicting how the health of these waters is affected by anthropogenic drivers, such as changing atmospheric conditions and terrestrial inputs. However, studies that quantify the relative impacts of these drivers are lacking.

A recent study in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans identified the primary drivers of acidification in the Chesapeake Bay over the past three decades. The authors used a three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemistry model to quantify the relative impacts on the Bay CO₂-system from increases in atmospheric CO₂, temperature, oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations, terrestrial loadings of total alkalinity (TA) and DIC, as well as decreases in terrestrial nutrient inputs. Decadal changes in the surface CO₂-system in the Chesapeake Bay exhibit large spatial and seasonal variability due to the combination of influences from the land, ocean and atmosphere. In the upper Bay, increased riverine TA and DIC from the Susquehanna River have increased surface pH, with other drivers only contributing to decadal changes that are one to two orders of magnitude smaller. In the mid- and lower Bay, higher atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and reduced nutrient loading are the two most critical drivers and have nearly equally reduced surface pH in the summer. These decadal changes in surface pH show significant seasonal variability with the greatest magnitude generally aligning with the spring and summer shellfish production season (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Overall changes in modeled surface pH (ΔpH_all) due to all global and terrestrial drivers combined over the past 30 years (i.e., 2015–2019 relative to 1985–1989). ΔpH_all includes changes in surface pH due to increased atmospheric CO2, increased atmospheric thermal forcing, increased oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations, decreased riverine nitrate concentrations, decreased riverine organic nitrogen concentrations, and increased riverine total alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations.

These results indicate that a number of global and terrestrial drivers play crucial roles in coastal acidification. The combined effects of the examined drivers suggest that calcifying organisms in coastal surface waters are likely facing faster decreasing rates of pH than those in open ocean ecosystems. Decreases in surface pH associated with nutrient reductions highlight that the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem is returning to a more natural condition, e.g., a condition when anthropogenic nutrient input from the watershed was lower. However, increased atmospheric CO₂ is simultaneously accelerating the rate of change in pH, exerting increased stress on estuarine calcifying organisms. For ecosystems such as the Chesapeake Bay where nutrient loading is already being managed, controlling the emissions of anthropogenic CO₂ globally becomes increasingly important to decelerate the rate of acidification and to relieve the stress on estuarine calcifying organisms. Future observational and modeling studies are needed to further investigate how the decadal trends in the Chesapeake Bay CO₂-system may vary with depth. These efforts will improve our current understanding of long-term change in coastal carbonate systems and their impacts on the shellfish industry.

Authors:
Fei Da (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary, USA)
Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary, USA)
Pierre St-Laurent (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary, USA)
Elizabeth H. Shadwick (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Australia)
Raymond G. Najjar (The Pennsylvania State University, USA)
Kyle E. Hinson (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary, USA)

The ephemeral and elusive COVID blip in ocean carbon

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, September 20th, 2021

The global pandemic of the last nearly two years has affected all of us on a daily and long-term basis. Our planet is not exempt from these impacts. Can we see a signal of COVID-related CO₂ emissions reductions in the ocean? In a recent study, Lovenduski et al. apply detection and attribution analysis to output from an ensemble of COVID-like simulations of an Earth system model to answer this question. While it is nearly impossible to detect a COVID-related change in ocean pH, the model produces a unique fingerprint in air-sea DpCO₂ that is attributable to COVID. Challengingly, the large interannual variability in the climate system makes this fingerprint difficult to detect at open ocean buoy sites.

This study highlights the challenges associated with detecting statistically meaningful changes in ocean carbon and acidity following CO₂ emissions reductions, and reminds the reader that it may be difficult to observe intentional emissions reductions — such as those that we may enact to meet the Paris Climate Agreement – in the ocean carbon system.

Figure caption: The fingerprint (pink line) of COVID-related CO2 emissions reductions in global-mean surface ocean pH and air-sea DpCO2, as estimated by an ensemble of COVID-like simulations in an Earth system model. While the pH fingerprint is not particularly exciting, the air-sea DpCO2 fingerprint displays a temporary weakening of the ocean carbon sink in 2021 due to COVID emissions reductions.

Authors:
Nikki Lovenduski (University of Colorado Boulder)
Neil Swart (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis)
Adrienne Sutton (NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)
John Fyfe (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis)
Galen McKinley (Columbia University and Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory)
Chris Sabine (University of Hawai’i at Manoa)
Nancy Williams (University of South Florida)

How atmospheric and oceanographic forcing impact the carbon sequestration in an ultra-oligotrophic marine system

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, August 11th, 2021

Sinking particles are a critical conduit for the export of material from the surface to the deep ocean. Despite their importance in oceanic carbon cycling, little is known about the composition and seasonal variability of sinking particles which reach abyssal depths. Oligotrophic waters cover ~75% of the ocean surface and contribute over 30% of the global marine carbon fixation. Understanding the processes that control carbon export to the deep oligotrophic areas is crucial to better characterize the strength and efficiency of the biological pump as well as to project the response of these systems to climate fluctuations and anthropogenic perturbations.

In a recent study published in Frontiers in Earth Science, authors synthesized data from atmospheric and oceanographic parameters, together with main mass components, and stable isotope and source-specific lipid biomarker composition of sinking particles collected in the deep Eastern Mediterranean Sea (4285m, Ierapetra Basin) for a three-year period (June 2010-June 2013). In addition, this study compared the sinking particulate flux data with previously reported deep-sea surface sediments from the study area to shed light on the benthic–pelagic coupling.

Figure Caption: a) Biplot of net primary productivity vs export efficiency (top and bottom horizontal dashed lines indicate threshold for high and low export efficiency regimes). b) Biplot of POC-normalized concentrations of terrestrial vs. phytoplankton-derived lipid biomarkers of the sinking particles collected in the deep Eastern Mediterranean Sea (Ierapetra Basin, NW Levantine Basin) from June 2010–June 2013, and surface sediments collected from January 2007 to June 2012 in the study area.

Both seasonal and episodic pulses are crucial for POC export to the deep Eastern Mediterranean Sea. POC fluxes peaked in spring April–May 2012 (12.2 mg m⁻² d⁻¹) related with extreme atmospheric forcing. Overall, summer particle export fuels more efficient carbon sequestration than the other seasons. The results of this study highlight that the combination of extreme weather events and aerosol deposition can trigger an influx of both marine labile carbon and anthropogenic compounds to the deep. Finally, the comparison of the sinking particles flux data with surface sediments revealed an isotopic discrimination, as well as a preferential degradation of labile organic matter during deposition and burial, along with higher preservation of land-derived POC in the underlying sediments. This study provides key knowledge to better understand the export, fate and preservation vs. degradation of organic carbon, and for modeling the organic carbon burial rates in the Mediterranean Sea.

Authors:
Rut Pedrosa-Pamies (The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, US; Research Group in Marine Geosciences, University of Barcelona, Spain)
Constantine Parinos (Institute of Oceanography, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Greece)
Anna Sanchez-Vidal (Group in Marine Geosciences, University of Barcelona, Spain)
Antoni Calafat (Group in Marine Geosciences, University of Barcelona, Spain)
Miquel Canals (Group in Marine Geosciences, University of Barcelona, Spain)
Dimitris Velaoras (Institute of Oceanography, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Greece)
Nikolaos Mihalopoulos (Environmental Chemical Processes Laboratory, University of Crete; National Observatory of Athens, Greece)
Maria Kanakidou (Environmental Chemical Processes Laboratory, University of Crete Greece)
Nikolaos Lampadariou (Institute of Oceanography, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Greece)
Alexandra Gogou (Institute of Oceanography, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Greece)

Air-sea gas disequilibrium drove deoxygenation of the deep ice-age ocean

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, March 18th, 2021

During the Last Glacial Maximum (~20,000 years ago, LGM) sediment data show that the deep ocean had lower dissolved oxygen (O₂) concentrations than the preindustrial ocean, despite cooler temperatures of this period increasing O₂ solubility in sea water.

Figure 1. a) Whole ocean inventory of the O₂ components in the preindustrial control (PIC): total O₂ (O₂); the preformed components equilibrium O₂ (O₂ equilibrium), physical disequilibrium O₂ (O₂ diseq phys) and biologically-mediated disequilibrium (O₂ diseq bio); and O₂ respired from soft-tissue (O₂ soft). b) The difference in whole ocean inventory of O₂ components between the LGM and PIC simulations.

In a study published in Nature Geoscience, the authors provide one of the first explanations for glacial deoxygenation. The authors combined a data-constrained model of the preindustrial (PIC) and LGM ocean with a novel decomposition of O₂ to assess the processes affecting the oceanic distribution of oxygen. The decomposition allowed for the preformed disequilibrium O₂—the amount of oxygen that deviates from its solubility equilibrium value when at the surface—to be tracked, along with other contributions such as the O₂ consumed by bacterial respiration of organic matter. In the preindustrial ocean, a third of the subsurface oxygen deficit was a result of disequilibrium rather than oxygen consumed by bacteria. This contradicts previous assumptions (Figure 1a). Nearly 80% of the disequilibrium resulted from upwelling waters, depleted in O₂ due to respiration, not fully equilibrating before re-subduction into the ocean interior. This effect was even greater during the LGM (Figure 1b). The authors attributed this largely to the widespread presence of sea ice—which acts as a cap on the surface preventing the water from gaining oxygen from the atmosphere—in the ocean around Antarctica, with a smaller contribution from iron fertilization.

This study provides one of the first mechanistic explanations for LGM deep ocean deoxygenation. As the ocean is currently losing oxygen due to warming, the effect of other processes, including sea ice changes, could prove important for understanding long-term ocean oxygenation changes.

Authors
Ellen Cliff (University of Oxford)
Samar Khatiwala (University of Oxford)
Andreas Schmittner (Oregon State University)

Joint highlight with GEOTRACES International Project Office

Wildfire impacts on coastal ocean phytoplankton

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, February 24th, 2021

Wildfire frequency, size, and destructiveness has increased over the last two decades, particularly in coastal regions such as Australia, Brazil, and the western United States. While the impact of fire on land, plants, and people is well documented, very few studies have been able to evaluate the impact of fires on ocean ecosystems. A serendipitously planned research cruise one week after the Thomas Fire broke out in California in December 2017 allowed the authors of this study and their colleagues to sample the adjacent Santa Barbara Channel during this devastating extreme fire event.

In a recent paper published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, the authors describe the phytoplankton community in the Santa Barbara Channel during the Thomas Fire. Phytoplankton community composition was described using a combination of images of phytoplankton from the Imaging FlowCytobot (McLane Labs) and phytoplankton pigments. Dinoflagellates were the dominant phytoplankton group in the surface ocean during the Thomas Fire, according to both methods (Figure 1).

Figure 1. (A) The fraction of total particle volume imaged by the Imaging FlowCytobot (IFCB) comprised of phytoplankton (green) and detritus (brown). Example IFCB images of ash (counted as part of detritus) particles are outlined in brown. (B) The phytoplankton fraction is then further divided by taxonomy, showing the abundance of nano-sized phytoplankton and especially dinoflagellates during the week of sampling. Example IFCB images of Gonyaulax (outlined in dark green), Prorocentrum (outlined in light green), and Umbilicosphaera (outlined in purple) cells are also shown.

While this study was not able to demonstrate a causal relationship between the Thomas Fire and the presence of dinoflagellates, this result is quite different from previous winters in the Santa Barbara Channel, when picophytoplankton and diatoms typically dominate the winter community. The incidence of dinoflagellates in the Santa Barbara Channel in December 2017 was correlated with the warmer-than-average water temperature during this study, which matched observations from other areas along the Central California coast that winter.

At the time this study was conducted, the Thomas Fire was the largest wildfire in California history. Since then, California fires have increased in danger, destruction, and human mortality; the Mendocino Fire complex (summer 2018) and five separate wildfires in summer 2020 exceeded the impacts of the Thomas Fire. With wildfire severity and frequency increasing not only in California but in coastal regions worldwide, this study gives an important first look at the impact of wildfire smoke and ash on oceanic primary productivity and community composition.

Authors:
Sasha Kramer (University of California Santa Barbara)
Kelsey Bisson (Oregon State University)
Alexis Fischer (University of California Santa Cruz)

Does ocean acidification make marine fish grow differently? What about sex-specific effects?

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, February 8th, 2021

The question of whether ocean acidification (OA) will impact the growth of marine fish remains surprisingly uncertain. The bulk of available evidence in the form of laboratory experiments suggests that most fish are not impacted by OA-relevant CO₂ levels, but many studies suffer from the inherent methodical constraints of rearing marine fish in captivity. For example, most experiments cover a small fraction of a species’ lifespan and do not employ restricted feeding regimes which may enable fish to increase feeding to offset metabolic deficits associated with high-CO₂ acclimation.

To address these methodological shortcomings, authors of a recent publication in PLOS One synthesized three years of multiple long-term, food-controlled experiments that reared large populations of the model forage fish Menidia menidia (Atlantic silverside) from fertilization to about a third of their lifespan. Results showed modest but consistent negative, temperature-dependent growth effects, in which silversides from high-CO₂ treatments were shorter (-3% to -9%) and weighed less (-6% to -18%) than ambient-CO₂ conspecifics. However, sometimes it takes more than just looking at means and standard deviations to elucidate these effects. Hence, the authors employed powerful shift functions to analyze how the size distributions of experimental populations shifted to smaller quantiles under future CO₂ conditions.

Figure caption: The length of juvenile Atlantic silversides reared from fertilization under control (blue dots) and high-CO₂ treatments (red dots). Exposure to OA conditions imposed a universal shift to a smaller body size across the size frequency distribution. Black vertical bars overlaying each distribution indicate the .1, .25, .5, .75, and .9 quantiles and quantile shifts are indicated by connecting lines.

It took over 100 days of continuous high-CO₂ exposure until size differences were detectable. This means that long-term CO₂effects could exist in other tested species but are missed in relatively short experiments. Furthermore, the authors sexed several thousand fish to enable a rare sex-specific analysis of CO₂ effects. Both sexes were similarly affected by high CO₂, and the hormonal pathways that mediate environmental sex determination in this species are not impacted by CO₂ level. Our results confirm that Atlantic silversides are relatively tolerant of future OA conditions. But even in this robust estuarine species, high CO₂ can reduce growth. This could have cascading effects on population dynamics by impacting size-dependent traits like reproductive success and over-wintering survival of this widespread and ecologically important prey species.

Authors
Christopher S. Murray (University of Washington)
Hannes Baumann (University of Connecticut)

Warming counteracts acidification in temperate crustose coralline algae communities

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, November 6th, 2020

Seawater carbonate chemistry has been altered by dramatic increases in anthropogenic CO₂ release and global temperatures, leading to significant changes in rocky shore habitats and the metabolism of most marine organisms. There has been recent interest in how these anthropogenic stresses affect crustose coralline algae (CCA) communities because CCA photosynthesis and calcification are directly influenced by seawater carbonate chemistry. CCA is a foundation species in temperate macroalgal communities, where species succession and rocky shore community structure are particularly susceptible to anthropogenic disturbance. In particular, the disappearance of turf and foliose macroalgae caused by climate change and herbivore pressure results in the dominance of CCA (Figure 1a).

Figure 1: (a) Examples of crustose coralline algae (CCA)-dominated seaweed bed in the East Sea of Korea showing barren ground dominated by CCA (bright white and pink color on the rock; see arrows) on a rocky subtidal zone grazed by sea urchins. (b) Specific growth rate of marginal encrusting area under future climate conditions.

In a recent study published in Marine Pollution Bulletin, the authors conducted a mesocosm experiment to investigate the sensitivity of temperate CCA Chamberlainium sp. to future climate stressors, as simulated by three experimental treatments: 1) Acidification: doubled CO₂; 2) Warming: +5ºC; and 3) Greenhouse: doubled CO₂ and +5ºC. After a 47-day acclimation period, when compared with present-day (control: 490 μatm and 20ºC) conditions, the Acidification treatment showed decreased photosynthesis rates of Chamberlainium sp, whereas the Warming treatment showed increased photosynthesis. The Acidification treatment also showed reduced encrusting growth rates relative to the Control, but when acidification was combined with warming in the Greenhouse treatment, encrusting growth rates increased substantially (Figure 1b). Taken together, these results suggest that the negative ecophysiological responses of Chamberlainium sp to acidification are ameliorated by elevated temperatures in a greenhouse world. In other words, if the foliose macroalgal community responses negatively in the greenhouse environment, the dominance of CCA will increase further, and the biodiversity of the algae community will be reduced.

Authors:
Ju-Hyoung Kim (Faculty of Marine Applied Biosciences, Kunsan National University)
Il-Nam Kim (Department of Marine Science, Incheon National University)

Marine heatwave implications for future phytoplankton blooms

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, October 15th, 2020

Ocean temperature extreme events such as marine heatwaves are expected to intensify in coming decades due to anthropogenic warming. Although the effects of marine heatwaves on large plants and animals are becoming well documented, little is known about how these warming events will impact microbes that regulate key biogeochemical processes such as ocean carbon uptake and export, which represent important feedbacks on the global carbon cycle and climate.

Figure caption: Relationship between phytoplankton bloom response to marine heatwaves and background nitrate concentration in the 23 study regions. X-axis denotes the annual-mean sea-surface nitrate concentration based on the model simulation (1992-2014; OFAM3, blue) and the in situ climatology (WOA13, orange). Y-axis denotes the mean standardised anomalies (see Equation 1 of the paper) of simulated sea-surface phytoplankton nitrogen biomass (1992-2014; OFAM3, blue) and observed sea-surface chlorophyll a concentration (2002-2018; MODIS, orange) during the co-occurrence of phytoplankton blooms and marine heatwaves.

In a recent study published in Global Change Biology, authors combined model simulations and satellite observations in tropical and temperate oceanographic regions over recent decades to characterize marine heatwave impacts on phytoplankton blooms. The results reveal regionally‐coherent anomalies depicted by shallower surface mixed layers and lower surface nitrate concentrations during marine heatwaves, which counteract known light and nutrient limitation effects on phytoplankton growth, respectively (Figure 1). Consequently, phytoplankton bloom responses are mixed, but derive from the background nutrient conditions of a study region such that blooms are weaker (stronger) during marine heatwaves in nutrient-poor (nutrient-rich) waters.

Given the projected expansion of nutrient-poor waters in the 21st century ocean, the coming decades are likely to see an increased occurrence of weaker blooms during marine heatwaves, with implications for higher trophic levels and biogeochemical cycling of key elements.

Authors:
Hakase Hayashida (University of Tasmania)
Richard Matear (CSIRO)
Pete Strutton (University of Tasmania)

Will global change “stress out” ocean DOC cycling?

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, September 29th, 2020

The dissolved organic carbon (DOC) pool is vital for the functioning of marine ecosystems. DOC fuels marine food webs and is a cornerstone of the earth’s carbon cycle. As one of the largest pools of organic matter on the planet, disruptions to marine DOC cycling driven by climate and environmental global changes can impact air-sea CO2 exchange, with the added potential for feedbacks on Earth’s climate system.

Figure 1. Simplified view of major dissolved organic carbon (DOC) sources (black text) and sinks (yellow text) in the ocean.

Since DOC cycling involves multiple processes acting concurrently over a range of time and space scales, it is especially challenging to characterize and quantify the influence of global change. In a recent review paper published in Frontiers in Marine Science, the authors synthesize impacts of global change-related stressors on DOC cycling such as ocean warming, stratification, acidification, deoxygenation, glacial and sea ice melting, inflow from rivers, ocean circulation and upwelling, and atmospheric deposition. While ocean warming and acidification are projected to stimulate DOC production and degradation, in most regions, the outcomes for other key climate stressors are less clear, with much more regional variation. This synthesis helps advance our understanding of how global change will affect the DOC pool in the future ocean, but also highlights important research gaps that need to be explored. These gaps include for example a need for studies that allow to understand the adaptation of degradation/production pathways to global change stressors, and their cumulative impacts (e.g. temperature with acidification).

Authors:
C. Lønborg (Aarhus University)
C. Carreira (CESAM, Universidade de Aveiro)
Tim Jickells (University of East Anglia)
X.A. Álvarez-Salgado (CSIC, Instituto de Investigacións Mariñas)

Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

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