Archive for global carbon budget

Forecasting air-sea CO2 flux variations several years in advance

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Tuesday, July 9th, 2019 

Year-to-year changes in the flux of CO2 between the atmosphere and the ocean impact the global carbon cycle and climate system, and challenge our ability to verify fossil fuel CO2 emissions. A new study published in Earth System Dynamics suggests that these air-sea CO2 flux variations are predictable several years in advance.

A novel set of initialized forecasts of past air-sea CO2 flux from an Earth system model (Figure 1a) confidently predicts year-to-year variations in the globally-integrated flux up to two years in advance. At regional scales, the forecast lead time increases. The predictability of CO2 flux from the initialized forecast system exceeds that obtained solely from foreknowledge of variations in external forcing (e.g., volcanic eruptions) or a simple persistence forecast (e.g., CO2 flux this year will be the same as next year). The longest-lasting forecast enhancements are in the subantarctic Southern Ocean and the northern North Atlantic (Figure 1b).

Figure 1: (a) Forecasts of the past evolution of air-sea CO2 flux in the South Pacific using an Earth System model indicate the potential to predict the future evolution of this quantity. (b) In each biome, the maximum forecast lead time in which the initialized forecast of air-sea CO2 flux beats out other forecast methods.

These results are particularly meaningful for those forecasting year-to-year changes in the global carbon budget, especially as these forecasting efforts are blind to the externally-forced variability in advance (i.e., the external forcing of the future is unknown).  In this way, forecasts of air-sea CO2 flux variations can help to inform future predictions of land-air CO2 flux and atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Authors:
Nicole Lovenduski (University of Colorado Boulder)
Stephen G. Yeager (National Center for Atmospheric Research)
Keith Lindsay (National Center for Atmospheric Research)
Matthew C. Long (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

See also the OCB Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions: Scoping directions for U.S. research Workshop to be held in October 1-3, 2019

Filter by Keyword

abundance acidification africa air-sea interactions alkalinity allometry ammonium AMOC anoxia anoxic Antarctic anthropogenic carbon aragonite saturation arctic arsenic Atlantic Atlantic modeling atmospheric CO2 atmospheric nitrogen deposition authigenic carbonates autonomous platforms bacteria BATS benthic bgc argo bioavailability biogeochemical cycles biogeochemical models biogeochemistry biological pump biological uptake biophysics bloom blooms blue carbon bottom water boundary layer buffer capacity CaCO3 calcification calcite carbon-climate feedback carbon-sulfur coupling carbon cycle carbon dioxide carbon sequestration Caribbean CCA CCS changing marine ecosystems changing ocean chemistry chemoautotroph chesapeake bay chl a chlorophyll circulation climate change CO2 coastal darkening coastal ocean cobalt Coccolithophores community composition conservation cooling effect copepod coral reefs currents cyclone DCM decomposers decomposition deep convection deep ocean deep sea coral deoxygenation depth diagenesis diatoms DIC diel migration dimethylsulfide dinoflagellate dissolved inorganic carbon dissolved organic carbon DOC DOM domoic acid dust DVM earth system models ecosystem state eddy Education Ekman transport emissions ENSO enzyme equatorial regions error ESM estuarine and coastal carbon fluxes estuary euphotic zone eutrophication evolution export EXPORTS extreme events extreme weather events faecal pellets filter feeders filtration rates fire fish Fish carbon fisheries floats fluid dynamics fluorescence food webs forams freshening freshwater frontal zone functional role future oceans geochemistry geoengineering GEOTRACES glaciers gliders global carbon budget global warming go-ship grazing greenhouse gas Greenland groundwater Gulf of Maine Gulf of Mexico Gulf Stream gyre harmful algal bloom high latitude human food human impact hurricane hydrothermal hypoxia ice age ice cores ice cover industrial onset inverse circulation iron iron fertilization isotopes jellies katabatic winds kelvin waves krill kuroshio land-ocean continuum larvaceans lateral transport LGM lidar ligands light light attenuation mangroves marine heatwave marine snowfall marshes Mediterranean meltwater mesopelagic mesoscale metagenome metals methane microbes microlayer microorganisms microscale microzooplankton midwater mixed layer mixed layers mixotrophy modeling mode water molecular diffusion MPT multi-decade NASA NCP net community production new technology nitrate nitrogen nitrogen fixation nitrous oxide north atlantic north pacific nutricline nutrient budget nutrient cycling nutrient limitation nutrients OA ocean-atmosphere ocean acidification ocean carbon uptake and storage ocean color ocean observatories ODZ oligotrophic omics OMZ open ocean optics organic particles overturning circulation oxygen pacific paleoceanography particle flux pCO2 PDO peat pelagic pH phenology phosphorus photosynthesis physical processes physiology phytoplankton plankton POC polar regions pollutants prediction primary productivity Prochlorococcus proteins pteropods pycnocline radioisotopes remineralization remote sensing residence time resource management respiration resuspension rivers rocky shore Rossby waves Ross Sea ROV salinity salt marsh satell satellite scale seafloor seagrass sea ice sea level rise seasonal patterns sea spray seaweed sediments sensors shelf system shells ship-based observations shorelines silicate sinking particles size SOCCOM soil carbon southern ocean south pacific spatial covariations speciation SST subduction submesoscale subpolar subtropical sulfate surface surface ocean Synechococcus teleconnections temperate temperature temporal covariations thermocline thermohaline thorium tidal time-series time of emergence top predators total alkalinity trace elements trace metals trait-based transfer efficiency transient features trophic transfer tropical turbulence twilight zone upper ocean upper water column upwelling US CLIVAR validation velocity gradient ventilation vertical flux vertical migration vertical transport volcano water clarity water quality western boundary currents wetlands winter mixing zooplankton

Copyright © 2021 - OCB Project Office, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 266 Woods Hole Rd, MS #25, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA Phone: 508-289-2838  •  Fax: 508-457-2193  •  Email: ocb_news@us-ocb.org

link to nsflink to noaalink to WHOI

Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.