Archive for upwelling

El Niño-driven changes in the tropical Pacific O2 content and structure

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Wednesday, April 29th, 2026 

What drives the year-to-year variability of dissolved oxygen (O2) in the tropical Pacific? A recent study explored this question using a global high-resolution model with active ocean biogeochemistry along with a machine learning based estimate of dissolved oxygen from Argo floats. El Niño and La Niña events play a major role in regulating the O2 content and distribution in the tropical Pacific. El Niño events result in excess O2 in the eastern tropical Pacific and reduced O2 in the west. La Niña yields opposite patterns. In contrast to previous speculations that lower model resolution leads to an underestimate of observed O2 variability in this region, we find little difference in the amplitude of the O2 content change between models of different resolution (~1º vs 0.1º) and the observations-based machine learning estimate. ENSO-driven variability of O2 in the eastern tropical Pacific is driven by large opposing physical and biological contributions: reduced upwelling of low-O2 waters and weaker O2 consumption at depth due to suppressed biological productivity during El Niño dominate over the reduction in O2 ventilation by vertical turbulent mixing and the Equatorial Undercurrent, and the opposite occurs during La Niña. This subtle balance between competing processes suggests that future changes in O2 in the tropical Pacific are likely to be sensitive to local changes in equatorial Pacific circulation and productivity, in addition to changes in large scale O2 supply from the mid and high latitude basins as the ocean warms and stratifies. These O2 changes have important implications for understanding and predicting marine ecosystem health and fisheries productivity throughout the tropical Pacific.

 

Figure: ENSO impacts on temperature and O2 shown as regression of Nino 3.4 index on a) temperature anomalies, and b) O2 anomalies in a high resolution simulation of CESM. Panel c) illustrates the main mechanisms governing the O2 response to El Niño events.

Authors
Yassir A. Eddebbar (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
M L. Hoffman (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
Jonathan D. Sharp (UW/NOAA)
Daniel B. Whitt (NASA Ames)
Aneesh C. Subramanian (CU Boulder)
Sam Stevenson (UC Santa Barbara)

@NCAR_CGD @CUBoulderATOC @Scripps_Ocean @aneeshcs @CLIVAR @USCLIVAR

 

Citation: Eddebbar, Y. A., Hoffman, E. L., Sharp, J. D., Whitt, D. B., Subramanian, A. C., & Stevenson, S. (2026). ENSO-Driven Variability of Oxygen Content and Distribution in the Tropical Pacific. Journal of Climate, 39(5), 1333-1353. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0476.1

Turbulent Mixing: A Dominant Source of Oxygen in the Upper Equatorial Pacific

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Tuesday, March 12th, 2024 

What balances oxygen removal in the equatorial Pacific? For a long time, oxygen in the eastern and central tropical Pacific was assumed to be mainly supplied by the large-scale advection of remotely ventilated waters via the equatorial current system and meridional circulation. A recent study used an eddy-resolving simulation of a global ocean model to show that turbulent mixing and its regulation by mesoscale eddies play a critical role in balancing oxygen removal (by consumption and upwelling) in the upper thermocline. Deeper in the water column, mean advection by the zonal currents and meridional circulation dominates. This mixing is tightly regulated by tropical instability waves, which intensify the shear between the equatorial currents and enhance the downward turbulent mixing flux of oxygen into the thermocline. Mesoscale phenomena thus play an indirect yet critical role as a local pathway of ventilation in this region. Testing these model-based hypotheses in the real ocean through dedicated field studies and long-term observations is needed to advance our understanding of the observed expansion of the oxygen deficient zones (ODZs) and model their future trajectory in a warmer and more stratified ocean.

Figure: The main processes that set the mean structure of oxygen in the equatorial Pacific are assessed in an eddy resolving simulation of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Panel a shows the climatological oxygen distribution on the 26.25 isopycnal in CESM. Panels b-e show the contribution of advection by mean circulation and eddies, vertical mixing, and production and consumption. These processes are illustrated in panel f). Figure adapted from Eddebbar et al (2024).

Authors
Yassir A. Eddebbar (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
Daniel B. Whitt (NASA Ames)
Ariane Verdy, (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
Matthew R. Mazloff (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
Aneesh C. Subramanian (CU Boulder)
Matthew C. Long, (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Air-sea gas disequilibrium drove deoxygenation of the deep ice-age ocean

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Thursday, March 18th, 2021 

During the Last Glacial Maximum (~20,000 years ago, LGM) sediment data show that the deep ocean had lower dissolved oxygen (O2) concentrations than the preindustrial ocean, despite cooler temperatures of this period increasing O2 solubility in sea water.

Figure 1. a) Whole ocean inventory of the O2 components in the preindustrial control (PIC): total O2 (O2); the preformed components equilibrium O2 (O2 equilibrium), physical disequilibrium O2 (O2 diseq phys) and biologically-mediated disequilibrium (O2 diseq bio); and O2 respired from soft-tissue (O2 soft). b) The difference in whole ocean inventory of O2 components between the LGM and PIC simulations.

In a study published in Nature Geoscience, the authors provide one of the first explanations for glacial deoxygenation. The authors combined a data-constrained model of the preindustrial (PIC) and LGM ocean with a novel decomposition of O2 to assess the processes affecting the oceanic distribution of oxygen. The decomposition allowed for the preformed disequilibrium O2—the amount of oxygen that deviates from its solubility equilibrium value when at the surface—to be tracked, along with other contributions such as the O2 consumed by bacterial respiration of organic matter. In the preindustrial ocean, a third of the subsurface oxygen deficit was a result of disequilibrium rather than oxygen consumed by bacteria. This contradicts previous assumptions (Figure 1a). Nearly 80% of the disequilibrium resulted from upwelling waters, depleted in O2 due to respiration, not fully equilibrating before re-subduction into the ocean interior. This effect was even greater during the LGM (Figure 1b). The authors attributed this largely to the widespread presence of sea ice—which acts as a cap on the surface preventing the water from gaining oxygen from the atmosphere—in the ocean around Antarctica, with a smaller contribution from iron fertilization.

This study provides one of the first mechanistic explanations for LGM deep ocean deoxygenation. As the ocean is currently losing oxygen due to warming, the effect of other processes, including sea ice changes, could prove important for understanding long-term ocean oxygenation changes.

Authors
Ellen Cliff (University of Oxford)
Samar Khatiwala (University of Oxford)
Andreas Schmittner (Oregon State University)

Joint highlight with GEOTRACES International Project Office

The role of nutrient trapping in promoting shelf hypoxia in the southern Benguela upwelling system

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Thursday, September 3rd, 2020 

The southern Benguela upwelling system (SBUS) off southwest Africa is an exceptionally fertile ocean region that supports valuable commercial fisheries. The productivity of this system derives from the upwelling of nutrient-rich Subantarctic Mode Water, and from the concurrent entrainment of nutrients regenerated proximately on the expansive continental shelf. The SBUS is prone to severe seasonal hypoxic events that decimate regional fisheries, occurrences of which are inextricably linked to the inherent nutrient dynamics. In a study recently published in JGR Oceans, the authors sought to understand the mechanisms sustaining elevated concentrations and seasonally-variable distributions of nutrients in the SBUS, in relation to the subsurface oxygen content. Inter-seasonal measurements of nutrients and nitrate isotope ratios across the SBUS in 2017 revealed that upwards of 48% (summer) and 63% (winter) of the on‐shelf nutrients derived from regeneration in situ.  The severity of hypoxia at the shelf bottom, in turn, correlated with the incidence of regenerated nutrients. The accrual of nutrients at the shelf bottom appears to be aided by hydrographic fronts that restrict offshore transport, trapping regenerated nutrients on the SBUS shelf and increasing the pool of nutrients available for upwelling – ultimately contributing to hypoxic events. This study underscores the need – if we are to develop a mechanistic and predictive understanding of hypoxia in the SBUS and elsewhere – to elucidate the role of shelf circulation in promoting the accrual of regenerated nutrients on the continental shelf. The next step is to combine new and existing observations with quantitative simulations to further interrogate the coupled physical-biogeochemical mechanisms that modulate the intensity of hypoxia.

Figure caption: Schematic of proposed nutrient-trapping mechanism: Deep nutrient-rich Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) acquires more nutrients as it passes over the shelf sediments from the regeneration of exported particulate organic material (POM). The production of this POM is fueled by nutrients stripped from the surface waters advecting back off-shore. The thickness of the arrows represents nutrient concentrations. Triangles indicate the positions of the Shelf Break Front (SBF) and Columbine Front (CF), coincident with an observed subduction of the Ekman layer and downwelling at the inner front boundary.

Authors
Raquel Flynn (University of Cape Town)
Julie Granger (University of Connecticut)
Jennifer Veitch (South African Environmental Observation Network)
Samantha Siedlecki (University of Connecticut)
Jessica Burger (University of Cape Town)
Keshnee Pillay (South Africa Department of Environment, Forestry and Fisheries)
Sarah Fawcett (University of Cape Town)

Multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Thursday, August 20th, 2020 

The California Current System is a highly productive coastal upwelling region that supports commercial fisheries valued at $6 billion/year. These fisheries are supported by upwelled waters, which are rich in nutrients and serve as a natural fertilizer for phytoplankton. Due to remineralization of organic matter at depth, these upwelled waters also contain large amounts of dissolved inorganic carbon, causing local conditions to be more acidic than the open ocean. This natural acidity, compounded by the dissolution of anthropogenic CO2 into coastal waters, creates corrosive conditions for shell-forming organisms, including commercial fishery species.

A recent study in Nature Communications showcases the potential for climate models to skillfully predict variations in surface pH—thus ocean acidification—in the California Current System. The authors evaluate retrospective predictions of ocean acidity made by a global Earth System Model set up similarly to a weather forecasting system. The forecasting system can already predict variations in observed surface pH fourteen months in advance, but has the potential to predict surface pH up to five years in advance with better initializations of dissolved inorganic carbon (Figure 1). Skillful predictions are mostly driven by the model’s initialization and subsequent transport of dissolved inorganic carbon throughout the North Pacific basin.

Figure 1. Forecast of annual surface pH anomalies in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem for 2020. Red colors denote anomalously basic conditions for the given location and blue colors indicate anomalously acidic conditions.

These results demonstrate, for the first time, the feasibility of using climate models to make multiyear predictions of surface pH in the California Current. Output from this global prediction system could serve as boundary conditions for high-resolution models of the California Current to improve prediction time scale and ultimately help inform management decisions for vulnerable and valuable shellfisheries.

 

Authors:
Riley X. Brady (University of Colorado Boulder)
Nicole S. Lovenduski (University of Colorado Boulder)
Stephen G. Yeager (National Center for Atmospheric Research)
Matthew C. Long (National Center for Atmospheric Research)
Keith Lindsay (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Physics vs. biology in Southern Ocean nutrient gradients

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Tuesday, June 16th, 2020 

In the Southern Ocean, surface water silicate (SiO4) concentrations decline very quickly relative to nitrate concentrations along a northward gradient toward mode water formation regions on the northern edge (Figure 1a, b). These mode waters play a critical role in driving global nutrient concentrations, setting the biogeochemistry of low- and mid-latitude regions around the globe after they upwell further north. To explain this latitudinal surface gradient, most hypotheses have implicated diatoms, which take up and export silicon as well as nitrogen: (1) Diatoms, including highly-silicified species such as Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, are more abundant in the Southern Ocean than elsewhere; (2) Iron limitation, which is prevalent in the Southern Ocean, elevates the Si:N ratio of diatoms; (3) Mass export of empty diatom frustules pumps silicate but not nitrate to deeper waters.

Figure 1: (a) and (b) nitrate and silicate concentrations in surface waters of the Southern Ocean (GLODAPv2_2019 data). (c) Model results of a standard run (black diamonds), a run without biology (red diamonds) and a run without mixing (blue diamonds).

In a recent paper published in Biogeosciences, the authors use an idealized model to explore the relative roles of biological vs. physical processes in driving the observed latitudinal surface nutrient gradients. Over timescales of a few years, removing the effects of biology (no SiO4 uptake or export) from the model elevates silicate concentrations slightly over the entire latitudinal range, but does not remove the strong latitudinal gradient (Figure 1c). However, if the effects of vertical mixing processes such as upwelling and entrainment are removed from the model by eliminating the observed deep [SiO4] gradient, the observed surface nutrient gradient is greatly altered (Figure 1c). These model results suggest that, over short timescales, physics is more important than biology in driving the observed surface water gradient in SiO4:NO3 ratios and forcing silicate depletion of mode waters leaving the Southern Ocean. These findings add to our understanding of Southern Ocean dynamics and the downstream effects on other oceans.

 

Authors:
P. Demuynck (University of Southampton)
T. Tyrrell (University of Southampton)
A.C. Naveira Garabato (University of Southampton)
C.M. Moore (University of Southampton)
A.P. Martin (National Oceanography Centre)

The Equatorial Undercurrent influences the fate of the Oxygen Minimum Zone in the Pacific

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Tuesday, November 12th, 2019 

While the ocean as a whole is losing oxygen due to warming, oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are maintained by a delicate balance of biological and physical processes; it is unclear how each one of them is going to evolve in the future. Changes to OMZs could affect the global uptake of carbon, the generation of greenhouse gases, and interactions among marine life. Current generation coarse-resolution (~1°) climate models compromise the ability to simulate low-oxygen waters and their response to climate change in the future because they fail to reproduce a major ocean current, the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC). These shortcomings lead to an overly tilted upper oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) (Figure 1), thus exaggerating sensitivity to circulation changes and overwhelming other key processes like diffusion and biology. The EUC also plays a vital role in feeding the eastern Pacific upwelling region, connecting it to global climate variability.

Figure: Top: The boundary of the Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ) along the Equator is unrealistically tilted for current generation (coarse resolution) climate models, and improves with increased horizontal resolution. The tilt is due to a bad representation of the Equatorial Undercurrent in the coarse model, also seen in other coarse models. The exaggerated tilt of the OMZ boundary at the Equator leads to increased inter-annual variability of the depth of the upper OMZ boundary, via changes in the zonal flow (left). This phenomenon is found in most CMIP5 models (right) and could be responsible for the current inability to predict the change in OMZ extent for the next century.

A recent high‐resolution climate model study in Geophysical Research Letters significantly improved the representation of both the EUC and OMZ, suggesting that the EUC is a key player in OMZ variability. This study emphasizes the importance of improving transport processes in global circulation models to better simulate oxygen distribution and predict future OMZ extent. The results of this study imply that the fundamental dynamics maintaining this key ocean current could be categorically misrepresented in the current generation of climate models, potentially influencing the ability to predict future climate variability and trends.

 

Authors:
Julius J.M. Busecke (Princeton University)
Laure Resplandy (Princeton University)
John P. Dunne (NOAA/GFDL)

Arctic surface waters release methane but also absorb 2,000 times the CO2 for a net cooling effect

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Thursday, September 28th, 2017 

A recent study by Pohlman et al. published in PNAS showed that ocean waters near the surface of the Arctic Ocean absorbed 2,000 times more carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere than the amount of methane released into the atmosphere from the same waters. The study was conducted near Norway’s Svalbard Islands, which overly numerous seafloor methane seeps.

Methane is a more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, but the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere where the study was conducted more than offset the potential warming effect of the observed methane emissions. During the study, scientists continuously measured the concentrations of methane and CO2 in near-surface waters and in the air just above the ocean surface. The measurements were taken over methane seeps fields at water depths ranging from 260 to 8530 feet (80 to 2600 meters).

Figure 1. Ocean waters overlying shallow-water methane seeps (white dots) offshore from the Svalbard Islands absorb substantially more atmospheric carbon dioxide than the methane that they emit to the atmosphere. Colors indicate the strength of the negative greenhouse warming potential associated with carbon dioxide influx to these surface waters relative to the positive greenhouse warming potential associated with the methane emissions. Gray shiptracks have background values for the relative greenhouse warming potential.

Analysis of the data confirmed that methane was entering the atmosphere above the shallowest (water depth of 260-295 feet or 80-90 meters) Svalbard margin seeps. The data also showed that significant amounts of CO2 were being absorbed by the waters near the ocean surface, and that the cooling effect resulting from CO2 uptake is up to 230 times greater than the warming effect expected from the methane emitted.

Most previous studies have focused only on the sea-air flux of methane overlying seafloor seep sites and have not accounted for the drawdown of CO2 that could offset some of the atmospheric warming potential of the methane. Phytoplankton appeared to be more active in the near-surface waters overlying the seafloor methane seeps, which would explain why so much carbon dioxide was being absorbed. Physical and biogeochemical measurements of near-surface waters overlying the seafloor methane seeps showed strong evidence of upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters from depth, stimulating phytoplankton activity and increasing CO2 drawdown. This study was the first to document this CO2 drawdown mechanism in a methane source region.

“If what we observed near Svalbard occurs more broadly at similar locations around the world, it could mean that methane seeps have a net cooling effect on climate, not a warming effect as we previously thought,” said USGS biogeochemist John Pohlman, the paper’s lead author. “We are looking forward to testing the hypothesis that shallow-water methane seeps are net greenhouse gas sinks in other locations.”

 

Authors:
John W. Pohlman (USGS Woods Hole Coastal & Marine Science Center)
Jens Greinert (GEOMAR, Univ. of Tromsø, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research)
Carolyn Ruppel (USGS Woods Hole Coastal & Marine Science Center)
Anna Silyakova (Univ. of Tromsø)
Lisa Vielstädte (GEOMAR)
Michael Casso (USGS Woods Hole Coastal & Marine Science Center)
Jürgen Mienert (Univ. of Tromsø)
Stefan Bünz (Univ. of Tromsø)

Untangling the mystery of domoic acid events: A climate-scale perspective

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 

The diatom Pseudo-nitzchia produces a neurotoxin called domoic acid, which in high concentrations affects wildlife ranging from mussels and crabs to seabirds and sea lions, as well as humans. In humans, the effects of domoic acid poisoning can range from gastrointestinal distress to memory loss, and even death. Despite being studied in laboratories since the late 1980s, there is no consensus on the environmental conditions that lead to domoic acid events. These events are most frequent and impactful in eastern boundary current regions such as the California Current System, which is bordered by Washington, Oregon, and California. In Oregon alone, there have been six major domoic acid events: 1996, 1998-1999, 2001, 2002-2006, 2010, 2014-2015. McKibben et al. (2017) investigated the regulation of domoic acid at a climate scale to develop and test an applied risk model for the US West Coast” to read “McKibben et al. (2017) investigated the regulation of domoic acid at regional and decadal scales in order to develop and test an applied risk model for the impact of climate on the US West Coast. They used the PDO and ONI climate variability indices, averages of monthly and 3 month running means of SST anomaly values and variability to look at basin-scale ocean conditions. At a local scale, data were from zooplankton sampling every two to four weeks between 1996 to 2015 at hydrographic station offshore of Newport, OR. Additionally, the NOAA NCDC product “Daily Optimum Interpolation, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Only, Version 2, Final+Preliminary SST” was used to obtain the monthly SST anomaly metric, based on combined in situ and satellite data.

 

(A) Warm and cool ocean regimes, (B) local SST anomaly, and (C and D) biological response. (A) PDO (red or blue vertical bars) and ONI (black line) indices; strong (S) to moderate (M) El Nino (+1) and La Nina (−1) events are labeled. (B) SST anomaly 20 nm off central OR. (C) The CSR anomaly 5 nm off central OR. (D) Monthly OR coastal maximum DA levels in razor clams (vertical bars); horizontal black line is the 20-ppm closure threshold. Black line in D shows the spring biological transition date (right y axis). At the top of the figure, black boxes indicate the duration of upwelling season each year; red vertical bars indicate the timing of annual DA maxima in relationship to upwelling. Gray shaded regions are warm regimes based on the PDO. Dashed vertical lines indicate onset of the six major DA events. The September 2014 arrival of the NE Pacific Warm Anomaly (colloquially termed “The Blob”) to the OR coastal region is labeled on B. “X” symbols along the x axes indicate that no data were available for that month (B–D).

Their findings show that these events have occurred when there is advection of warmer water masses onto the continental shelf from southern or offshore areas. When the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño coincide, the effect is additive. In the warm regime years, there is a later spring biological transition date, weaker alongshore currents, elevated water temperatures, and plankton communities are dominated by subtropical rather than subarctic species. The authors also note relative differences between the prevalence and phenology of domoic acid events in OR, CA and WA, which warrants further study via regional-scale modeling. Overall, this research shows a clear and enhanced risk of toxicity in shellfish during warm phases of natural climate oscillations. If predictions of more extreme warming come to bear, this would potentially lead to increased DA event intensity and frequency in coastal zones around the globe. This will not only affect wildlife, but may cause significant closures of economically important fisheries (e.g., Dungeness crab, anchovy, mussel, and razor clam), which would impact local communities and native populations.

 

Authors:
Morgaine McKibben (Oregon State Univ., NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center)
William Peterson (NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center)
Michelle Wood (Univ. Oregon)
Vera L. Trainer (NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center)
Matthew Hunter (Oregon Dept. Fish & Wildlife)
Angelicque E. White (Oregon State Univ.)

A framework for ENSO predictability of marine ecosystem drivers along the US West Coast

Posted by mmaheigan 
· Thursday, February 16th, 2017 

The US West Coast eastern boundary upwelling system supports one of the most productive marine ecosystems in the world and is a primary source of ecosystem services for the US (e.g., fishing, shipping, and recreation). Long-term historical observations of physical and biological variables in this region have been collected since the 1950s (e.g., the CalCOFI program and now including the coastal ocean observing systems), leading to an excellent foundation for understanding the ecosystem impacts of dominant climate fluctuations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the northeast Pacific, ENSO impacts a wide range of physical and biotic processes, including temperature, stratification, winds, upwelling, and primary and secondary production. The El Niño phase of ENSO, in particular, can result in extensive geographic habitat range displacements and altered catches of fishes and invertebrates, and impact vertical and lateral export fluxes of carbon and other elements (Jacox et al., this issue; Anderson et al., this issue; Ohman et al., this issue). However, despite empirical observations and increased understanding of the coupling between climate and marine ecosystems along the US West Coast, there has been no systematic attempt to use this knowledge to forecast marine ecosystem responses to individual ENSO events. ENSO forecasting has become routine in the climate community. However, little has been done to forecast the impacts of ENSO on ecosystems and their services. This becomes especially important considering the occurrence of recent strong El Niño events (such as 2015-16) and climate model projections that suggest that ENSO extremes may become more frequent (Cai et al. 2015).

The joint US CLIVAR/OCB/NOAA/PICES/ICES workshop on Forecasting ENSO impacts on marine ecosystems of the US West Coast (Di Lorenzo et al. 2017) held in La Jolla, California, in August 2016 outlined a three-step strategy to better understand and quantify the ENSO-related predictability of marine ecosystem drivers along the US West Coast (Figure 1). The first step is to use a high-resolution ocean reanalysis to determine the association between local ecosystem drivers and regional forcing patterns (RFPs). The identification of ecosystem drivers will depend on the ecosystem indicators or target species selected for prediction (Ohman et al., this issue). The second step is to objectively identify the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) patterns that optimally force the RFPs along the US West Coast region using available long-term large-scale reanalysis products. While the goal of the first two steps is to understand the dynamical basis for predictability (Figure 1, blue path), the final third step (Figure 1, orange path) aims at quantifying the predictability of the RFPs and estimating their prediction skill at seasonal timescales. This third step can be implemented using the output of multi-model ensemble forecasts such as the North America Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) or by building efficient statistical prediction models such as Linear Inverse Models (LIMs; Newman et al. 2003).

Figure 1. Framework for understanding and predicting ENSO impacts on ecosystem drivers. Blue path shows the steps that will lead to Understanding of the ecosystem drivers and their dependence on tropical Pacific anomalies. Orange path shows the steps that will lead to quantifying the Predictability of marine ecosystem drivers along the US West Coast that are predictable from large-scale tropical teleconnection dynamics.

 

Important to the concept of ENSO predictability is the realization that the expressions of ENSO are very diverse and cannot be identified with a few indices (Capotondi et al. 2015; Capotondi et al., this issue). In fact, different expressions of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the tropics give rise to oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections that generate different coastal impacts in the northeast Pacific. For this reason, we will refer to ENSO as the collection of tropical Pacific SSTa that lead to deterministic and predictable responses in the regional ocean and atmosphere along the US West Coast.

In the sections below, we articulate in more detail the elements of the framework for quantifying the predictability of ENSO-related impacts on coastal ecosystems along the US West Coast (Figure 1). Our focus will be on the California Current System (CCS), reflecting the regional expertise of the workshop participants. Specifically, we discuss (1) the ecosystem drivers and what is identified as such; (2) RFP definitions; and (3) the teleconnections from the tropical Pacific and their predictability.

Ecosystem drivers in the California Current System

The impacts of oceanic processes on the CCS marine ecosystem have been investigated since the 1950s when the long-term California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) began routine seasonal sampling of coastal ocean waters. The CalCOFI program continues today and has been augmented with several other sampling programs (e.g., the coastal ocean observing network), leading to an unprecedented understanding of how climate and physical ocean processes, such as upwelling, drive ecosystem variability and change (e.g., see more recent reviews from King et al.2011; Ohman et al. 2013; Di Lorenzo et al. 2013).

The dominant physical oceanographic drivers of ecosystem variability occur on seasonal, interannual, and decadal timescales and are associated with changes in (1) SST; (2) upwelling velocity; (3) alongshore transport; (4) cross-shore transport; and (5) thermocline/nutricline depth (see Ohman et al., this issue). This set of ecosystem drivers emerged from discussions among experts at the workshop. Ecosystem responses to these drivers include multiple trophic levels, including phytoplankton, zooplankton, small pelagic fish, and top predators, and several examples have been identified for the CCS (see summary table in Ohman et al., this issue).

While much research has focused on diagnosing the mechanisms by which these physical drivers impact marine ecosystems, less is known about the dynamics controlling the predictability of these drivers. As highlighted in Ohman et al. (this issue), most of the regional oceanographic drivers (e.g., changes in local SST, upwelling, transport, thermocline depth) are connected to changes in large-scale forcings (e.g., winds, surface heat fluxes, large-scale SST and sea surface height patterns, freshwater fluxes, and remotely forced coastally trapped waves entering the CCS from the south). In fact, several studies have documented how large-scale changes in wind patterns associated with the Aleutian Low and the North Pacific Oscillation drive oceanic modes of variability such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (Mantua et al. 1997; Di Lorenzo et al. 2008; Chhak et al. 2009; Ohman et al., this issue; Jacox et al., this issue; Anderson et al., this issue; Capotondi et al., this issue) that influence the CCS. However, these large-scale modes only explain a fraction of the ecosystem’s atmospheric forcing functions at the regional-scale. Thus, it is important to identify other key forcings to gain a more complete mechanistic understanding of CCS ecosystem drivers (e.g., Jacox et al. 2014; 2015).

Atmospheric and oceanic regional forcing patterns

The dominant large-scale quantities that control the CCS ecosystem drivers are winds, heat fluxes, and remotely forced coastally trapped waves (Hickey 1979). Regional expressions or patterns of these large-scale forcings have been linked to changes in local stratification and thermocline depth (Veneziani et al. 2009a; 2009b; Combes et al. 2013), cross-shore transport associated with mesoscale eddies (Kurian et al. 2011; Todd et al. 2012; Song et al. 2012; Davis and Di Lorenzo 2015b), and along-shore transport (Davis and Di Lorenzo 2015a; Bograd et al. 2015). For this reason, we define the regional expressions of the atmospheric and remote wave forcing that are optimal in driving SST, ocean transport, upwelling, and thermocline depth as the RFPs. To clarify this concept, consider the estimation of coastal upwelling velocities. While a change in the position and strength in the Aleutian Low has been related to coastal upwelling in the northern CCS, a more targeted measure of the actual upwelling vertical velocity and nutrient fluxes that are relevant to primary productivity can only be quantified by taking into account a combination of oceanic processes that depend on multiple RFPs such as thermocline depth (e.g., remote waves), thermal stratification (e.g., heat fluxes), mesoscale eddies, and upwelling velocities (e.g., local patterns of wind stress curl and alongshore winds; see Gruber et al 2011; Jacox et al. 2015; Renault et al. 2016). In other words, if we consider the vertical coastal upwelling velocity (w) along the northern CCS, a more adequate physical description and quantification would be given from a linear combination of the different regional forcing functions w = Σn ∝n * RFPn rather than w = ∝*Aleutian Low.

The largest interannual variability in the Pacific that impacts the RFPs is ENSO, which also constitutes the largest source of seasonal (3-6 months) predictability. During El Niño and La Niña, atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections from the tropics modify large-scale and local surface wind patterns and ocean currents of the CCS and force coastally trapped waves.

ENSO teleconnections and potential seasonal predictability of the regional forcing patterns

While ENSO exerts important controls on the RFPs in the CCS, it has become evident that ENSO expressions in the tropics vary significantly from event to event, leading to different responses in the CCS (Capotondi et al., this issue). Also, as previously pointed out, the CCS is not only sensitive to strong ENSO events but more generally responds to a wide range of tropical SSTa variability that is driven by ENSO-type dynamics in the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific. For this reason, we define an “ENSO teleconnection” as any RFP response that is linked to ENSO-type variability in the tropics.

ENSO can influence the upwelling and circulation in the CCS region through both oceanic and atmospheric pathways. It is well known that equatorial Kelvin waves, an integral part of ENSO dynamics, propagate eastward along the Equator and continue both northward (and southward) along the coasts of the Americas as coastally trapped Kelvin waves after reaching the eastern ocean boundary. El Niño events are associated with downwelling Kelvin waves, leading to a deepening of the thermocline, while La Niña events produce a shoaling of the thermocline in the CCS (Simpson 1984; Lynn and Bograd 2002; Huyer et al. 2002; Bograd et al. 2009; Hermann et al. 2009; Miller et al. 2015). The offshore scale of coastal Kelvin waves decreases with latitude, and the waves decay while propagating northward along the coast due to dissipation and radiation of westward propagating Rossby waves. In addition, topography and bathymetry can modify the nature of the waves and perhaps partially impede their propagation at some location. Thus, the efficiency of coastal waves of equatorial origin in modifying the stratification in the CCS is still a matter of debate. To complicate matters, regional wind variability south of the CCS also excites coastally trapped waves, which supplement the tropical source.

In the tropics, SST anomalies associated with ENSO change tropical convection and excite mid-troposphere stationary atmospheric Rossby waves that propagate signals to the extratropics, the so-called atmospheric ENSO teleconnections (Capotondi et al., this issue). Through these atmospheric waves, warm ENSO events favor a deepening and southward shift of the Aleutian Low pressure system that is dominant during winter, as well as changes in the North Pacific Subtropical High that is dominant during spring and summer, resulting in a weakening of the alongshore winds, reduced upwelling, and warmer surface water. These changes are similar to those induced by coastal Kelvin waves of equatorial origin, making it very difficult to distinguish the relative importance of the oceanic and atmospheric pathways in the CCS. In addition, due to internal atmospheric noise, the details of the ENSO teleconnections can vary significantly from event to event and result in important differences along the California Coast (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Schematic of ENSO teleconnection associated with different flavors of tropical SSTa. (a) Atmospheric teleconnections of the canonical eastern Pacific El Niño tend to impact the winter expression of the Aleutian Low, which in turn drives an oceanic SSTa anomaly that projects onto the pattern of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). (b) Atmospheric teleconnections of the central Pacific El Niño tend to impact the winter expression of the North Pacific High, which in turn drives an oceanic SSTa anomaly that projects onto the pattern of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). The ENSO SSTa maps are obtained by regressing indices of central and eastern Pacific ENSO with SSTa. The other maps are obtained by regression of SSTa/SLPa with the PDO (a) and NPGO (b) indices.

 

El Niño events exhibit a large diversity in amplitude, duration, and spatial pattern (Capotondi et al. 2015). The amplitude and location of the maximum SST anomalies, whether in the eastern (EP) or central (CP) Pacific, can have a large impact on ENSO teleconnections (Ashok et al. 2007; Larkin and Harrison 2005). While “canonical” EP events induce changes in the Aleutian Low (Figure 2b), CP events have been associated with a strengthening of the second mode of North Pacific atmospheric variability, the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO; Figure 2a; Di Lorenzo et al. 2010; Furtado et al. 2012). In addition, it is conceivable that EP events have a larger Kelvin wave signature than CP events, resulting in different oceanic influences in the CCS.

In summary, while the ENSO influence on the CCS physical and biological environments is undeniable, several sources of uncertainty remain about the details of that influence. This uncertainty arises in the physical environment on seasonal timescales from many sources, including the diversity of ENSO events, the intrinsic unpredictable components of the atmosphere, and the intrinsic unpredictable eddy variations in the CCS. We also need to distinguish between physically forced ecosystem response versus intrinsic biological variability, which is potentially nonlinear and likely unpredictable. Skill levels need to be quantified for each step of the prediction process (i.e., ENSO, teleconnections, local oceanic response, local ecosystem response) relative to a baseline—for example the persistence of initial condition, which is also being exploited for skillful predictions of the large marine ecosystem at the seasonal timescale (Tommasi et al., this issue). The target populations should be exploitable species that are of interest to federal and state agencies that regulate certain stocks. Models are currently being developed to use ocean forecasts to advance top predator management (Hazen et al., this issue). The implementation of this framework (Figure 1) for practical uses will require a collaborative effort between physical climate scientists with expertise in predicting and understanding ENSO and biologists who have expertise in understanding ecosystem response to physical climate forcing.

Authors

Emanuele Di Lorenzo (Georgia Institute of Technology)
Arthur J. Miller (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)

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