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A suite of CO2 removal approaches modeled for the 1.5 ˚C future

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, August 31st, 2023

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is “unavoidable” in efforts to limit end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C. This is because some greenhouse gas emissions sources—non-CO₂ from agriculture, and CO₂ from shipping, aviation, and industrial processes—will be difficult to avoid, requiring CDR to offset their climate impacts. Policymakers are interested in a wide variety of ways to draw down CO₂ from the atmosphere, but to date, the modeling scenarios that inform international climate policies have mostly used biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) as a proxy for all CDR. It is critical to understand the potential of a full suite of CDR technologies, to understand their interactions with energy-water-land systems and to begin preparing for these impacts.

Figure caption: Each of the six carbon dioxide removal approaches identified in recent U.S. legislation and modeled for this study could bring unique benefits and tradeoffs to the energy-water-land system. This image depicts afforestation, direct ocean capture, direct air capture, biochar, enhanced weathering, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in clockwise order. Floating carbon dioxide molecules hover above the landscape (image credit: Nathan Johnson, PNNL).

A recent study published in the journal Nature Climate Change was the first to model six major CDR pathways in an integrated assessment model. The modeled pathways range from bioenergy with carbon storage and afforestation (already represented by most models), also direct air capture, biochar and crushed basalt spreading on global croplands, and electrochemical stripping of CO₂ from seawater aka direct ocean capture. The removal potential contributed by each of the six pathways varies widely across different regions of the world. Direct ocean capture showed the smallest removal potential but has important potential synergies with water desalination. This method could help arid regions such as the Middle East meet their water needs in a warming world. Enhanced weathering has much larger (GtCO₂-yr^-1) removal potential and could potentially help ameliorate ocean acidification. Overall, similar total amounts of CO₂ are removed compared to other modeling scenarios, but broader set of technologies lessens the risk that any one of them would become politically or environmentally untenable.

Authors:
Jay Fuhrman (Joint Global Change Research Institute)
Candelaria Bergero (Joint Global Change Research Institute)
Maridee Weber (Joint Global Change Research Institute)
Seth Monteith (ClimateWorks Foundation)
Frances M. Wang (ClimateWorks Foundation)
Andres F. Clarens (University of Virginia)
Scott C. Doney (University of Virginia)
William Shobe (University of Virginia)
Haewon McJeon (Joint Global Change Research Institute )

Twitter: @pnnlab @climateworks @uva

Enhanced-warming Kuroshio Current experiences rapid seawater acidification and CO2 increase

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, March 30th, 2023

In order to project the future states of the climate and the marine ecosystem it is vital to understand the long-term changes in ocean carbon chemistry driven by anthropogenic influence. A paucity of data make the rates of seawater acidification and partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) rise on ocean margins highly uncertain.

Figure 1. Graphic summary of 9 years of data from the Kuroshio Current time-series: (a) under the influences of only atmospheric CO2 increase, (b) the combined effect of atmospheric CO2 increase, SST increase, and additional DIC supply, (c) annually averaged air-sea CO2 flux decrease, (d) Projected seawater pCO2 increase under SST rise and sustained DIC increase.

A recent study in Marine Pollution Bulletin documented the rapid increase of seawater pCO₂ (3.70±0.57 matm year^-1) and acidification (pH at -0.0033±0.0009 unit year^-1) along Kuroshio in the East China Sea (Figure 1). These findings were based on nine years of time-series data ( 2010-2018) which are now available on the website of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). These trends are significantly greater than the expected rates from CO₂air-sea equilibrium and those reported from other oceanic time-series studies. Interestingly, they showed the contribution of each parameter such as sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and normalized dissolved inorganic carbon (nDIC) and total alkalinity (nTA) to the pCO₂ variability. Seawater warming caused rapid rates of pCO₂increase and acidification under sustained DIC increase. The faster pCO₂growth relative to the atmosphere resulted in the CO₂uptake through the air-sea exchange declining by ~50% (~-0.8 to -0.4 mol C m^-2 y^-1) over the study period.

If this trend continues and the atmospheric CO₂increases at its current rate, the rapid warming Kuroshio regions could change from a sink to a source of CO₂ , and cause a loss of oceanic CO₂ uptake in the near future (ca. 2030-2040). Further, other “warming hotspots” in the global ocean along western boundary currents with a continuous DIC supply may exhibit similarly accelerated acidification and pCO₂ rise. This could lead to a significant reduction in ocean CO₂ uptake.

Authors:
Shou-En Tsao (Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taiwan)
Po-Yen Shen (Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taiwan)
Chun-Mao Tseng^* (Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taiwan)

Integrated analysis of carbon dioxide and oxygen concentrations as a quality control of ocean float data

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, August 26th, 2022

A recent study in Communications Earth & Environment, examined spatiotemporal patterns of the two dissolved gases CO₂ and O₂in the surface ocean, using the high-quality global dataset GLODAPv2.2020. We used surface ocean data from GLODAP to make plots of carbon dioxide and oxygen relative to saturation (CORS plots). These plots of CO₂ deviations from saturation (ΔCO₂) against oxygen deviations from saturation (ΔO₂) (Figure 1) provide detailed insight into the identity and intensity of biogeochemical processes operating in different basins.

Figure 1: Relationships between ΔCO₂ and ΔO₂ in the global ocean basins based on surface data in the GLODAPv2.2020 database. The black dashed lines are the least-squares best-fit lines to the data; unc denotes the uncertainty in the y-intercept value with 95% confidence; r is the associated Pearson correlation coefficient; n is the number of data points.

In addition, data in all basins and all seasons shares some common behaviors: (1) negative slopes of best fit lines to the data, and (2) near-zero y-intercepts of those lines. We utilized these findings to compare patterns in CORS plots from GLODAP with those from BGC-Argo float data from the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling (SOCCOM) program. Given that the float O₂ data is likely to be more accurate than the float pH data (from which the float CO₂ is calculated), CORS plots are useful for detecting questionable float CO₂ data, by comparing trends in float CORS plots (e.g. Figure 2) to trends in GLODAP CORS plots (Figure 1). As well as the immediately detected erroneous data, we discovered significant discrepancies in ΔCO₂-ΔO₂ y-intercepts compared to the global reference (i.e., GLODAPv2.2020 y-intercepts, Figure 1). The y-intercepts of 48 floats with QCed O₂ and CO₂ data (at regions south of 55°S) were on average greater by 0.36 μmol kg⁻¹ than the GLODAP-derived ones, implying the overestimations of float-based CO₂ release in the Southern Ocean.

Figure 2. CORS plots from data collected by SOCCOM floats F9096 and F9099 in the high-latitude Southern Ocean. Circles with solid edges denote data flagged as ‘good’, whereas crosses denote data flagged as ‘questionable’.

Our study demonstrates CORS plots’ ability to identify questionable data (data shown to be questionable by other QC methods) and to reveal issues with supposed ‘good’ data (i.e., quality issues not picked up by other QC methods). CORS plots use only surface data, hence this QC method complements existing methods based on analysis of deep data. As the oceanographic community becomes increasingly reliant on data collected from autonomous platforms, techniques like CORS will help diagnose data quality, and immediately detect questionable data.

Authors:
Yingxu Wu (Polar and Marine Research Institute, Jimei University, Xiamen, China; University of Southampton)
Dorothee C.E. Bakker (University of East Anglia)
Eric P. Achterberg (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel)
Amavi N. Silva (University of Southampton)
Daisy D. Pickup (University of Southampton)
Xiang Li (George Washington University)
Sue Hartman (National Oceanography Centre, Southampton)
David Stappard (University of Southampton)
Di Qi (Polar and Marine Research Institute, Jimei University, Xiamen, China)
Toby Tyrrell (University of Southampton)

Why are sand lance embryos so sensitive to future high CO2-oceans?

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, August 26th, 2022

Two decades of ocean acidification experiments have shown that elevated CO₂ can affect many traits in fish early life stages. Only few species, however, show direct CO₂-induced survival reductions. This may partly reflect a bias in our current empirical record, which is dominated by species from nearshore tropical-to-temperate environments. There, these organisms already experience highly variable CO₂ conditions. In contrast, fishes from more offshore habitats, especially at higher latitudes are adapted to more CO₂-stable conditions, which could make them more CO₂-sensitive. This group of fishes is still underrepresented in the literature, despite its enormous commercial and ecological importance.

To help address this gap, we conducted new experimental work on northern sand lance Ammodytes dubius, a key forage fish on offshore Northwest Atlantic sand banks with trophic links to more than 70 different predator species of fish, squid, seabirds, and marine mammals. On Stellwagen Bank in the southern Gulf of Maine, sand lance are the ‘backbone’ of the eponymous National Marine Sanctuary.

We followed up on the intriguing findings of a pilot study a few years ago. Over two years and two trials, we again produced embryos from wild, Stellwagen Bank spawners and reared them at several pCO₂ levels (~400−2000 μatm) in combination with static and dynamic temperatures. Again, we observed consistently large CO₂-induced reductions in hatching success (-23% at 1,000 µatm, -61% at ~2,000 µatm), but this time the effects were temperature-independent.

Intriguingly, we again saw that many sand lance embryos at high CO₂ treatments did not merely arrest in their development (indicative of acidosis), but appeared to develop fully to hatch but were somehow incapable of doing so. We show several lines of evidence supporting the hypothesis that CO₂ directly impairs hatching in this species. Most fish rely on hatching enzymes that help embryos break the chorion (egg shell), but these ubiquitous enzymes may work less efficiently under high CO₂, low pH conditions.

For additional context, we also derived long-term, seasonal pCO₂ projections specifically for Stellwagen Bank, which together with the experimental data suggested that increasing CO₂ levels alone could reduce sand lance hatching success to 71% of contemporary levels by the year 2100.

We believe that the importance of sand lances as forage fishes across most northern hemisphere shelf ecosystem warrants a strategic effort of OA researchers to begin testing other sand lance species or populations to understand the magnitude of the problem and its underlying mechanisms.

Authors:
Hannes Baumann (University of Connecticut)
Lucas Jones (University of Connecticut)
Christopher Murray (University of Washington)
Samantha Siedlecki (University of Connecticut)
Michael Alexander (NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory)
Emma Cross (Southern Connecticut State University)

Carbon fluxes in the coastal ocean: Synthesis, boundary processes and future trends

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, August 26th, 2022

A vital part of mitigating climate change is the coastal and open ocean carbon sink, without this, it is not possible to meet the target set by the Paris Agreement. More research is needed to better understand the ocean carbon cycle and its future role in the uptake of anthropogenic carbon. A review provides an analysis of the current qualitative and quantitative understanding of the coastal ocean carbon cycle at regional to global scales, with a focus on the air-sea CO₂ exchange. It includes novel findings obtained using the full breadth of methodological approaches, from observation-based studies and advanced statistical methods to conceptual and theoretical frameworks, and numerical modeling.

Figure 1: Updated sea-air CO₂ flux density (mol C m⁻² year⁻¹) in the global coastal oceans that reveals that the global coastal ocean is an integrated CO₂ sink with the strongest CO₂ uptake at high latitudes. The challenges associated with identifying current and projected responses of the coastal ocean and it source/sink role in the global carbon budget require observational networks that are coordinated and integrated with modeling programs; development of this capability is a priority for the ocean carbon research and management communities.

Based on a new quantitative synthesis of air-sea CO₂ exchange, this study yields an estimate for the globally integrated coastal ocean CO₂ flux of −0.25 ± 0.05 Pg C year⁻¹, with polar and subpolar regions accounting for most of the CO₂ removal (>90%). A framework that classifies river-dominated ocean margin (RiOMar) and ocean-dominated margin (OceMar) systems is used in to conceptualize coastal carbon cycle processes. Ocean carbon models are reviewed in terms of the ability to simulate key processes and project future changes in different continental shelf regions. Concurrent trends and changes in the land-ocean-atmosphere coupled system introduce large uncertainties into projections of ocean carbon fluxes, in particular into defining the role of the coastal carbon sink and its evolution, both of which are of fundamental importance to climate science and climate policies developed before and after achievement of net-zero CO₂ emissions. The major gaps and challenges identified for current coastal ocean carbon research have important implications for climate and sustainability policies. This study is a contribution to the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Phase 2 supported by the Global Carbon Project.

Authors:
M. H. Dai, J. Z. Su, Y. Y. Z., E. E. Hofmann, Z. M. Cao, W.-J. Cai, J. P. Gan, F. Lacroix, G. G. Laruelle, F. F. Meng, J. D. Müller, P. A.G. Regnier, G. Z. Wang, and Z. X. Wang

Powerful new tools for working with Argo data

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, June 9th, 2022

No single program has been as transformative for ocean science over the past two decades as Argo: the fleet of robotic instruments that collect measurements of temperature and salinity in the upper 2 km of the ocean around the globe. The Argo program has been instrumental in revealing changes to ocean heat content, global sea level, and patterns of ice melt and precipitation. In addition, Biogeochemical Argo—the branch of the Argo program focused on floats with additional biological and chemical sensors—has recently shed light on topics such as regional patterns of carbon production and export, the magnitude of carbon dioxide air-sea flux in the Southern Ocean (thanks to the SOCCOM project), and the dynamics modulating ocean oxygen concentrations and oxygen minimum zones. While Argo data are publicly available in near-real-time via two Global Data Assembly Centers, there tends to be a steep learning curve for new users seeking to access and utilize the data.

To address this issue, a team led by scientists at NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory developed a software toolbox available in two programming languages for accessing and visualizing Argo data— OneArgo-Mat for MATLAB and OneArgo-R for R. The toolbox includes functions to identify and download float data that adhere to user-defined time and space constraints, and other optional requirements like sensor type and data mode; plot float trajectories and their current positions; filter and manipulate float data based on quality flags and additional metadata; and create figures (profiles, time series, and sections) displaying physical, biological, and chemical properties measured by floats. Examples of figures created using the OneArgo-Mat toolbox are given below (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Example figures created using the OneArgo-Mat toolbox: (A) the trajectory of a float deployed in the North Atlantic from the R/V Johan Hjort in May of 2019, (B) a time series of dissolved oxygen at 80 dbars from that float, and (C) a vertical section plot of nitrate concentrations along the float track from the surface to 300 dbars. The black contour line in panel C denotes the mixed layer depth (MLD) based on a temperature criterion and the red line denotes the depth of the time series shown in panel B. The effects of seasonal phytoplankton blooms are evident in panel C, with mixed layer shoaling in the spring followed by drawdown of nitrate in the surface ocean. Panel B shows that, as the mixed layer deepens through the winter, the oxygen concentration at 80 dbars increases as a result of the oxygenated surface waters reaching that depth. The MATLAB code to download the required data and create all of these plots is shown (D).

The OneArgo-Mat and OneArgo-R toolboxes are intended for newcomers to Argo data, seasoned users, data managers, and everyone in between. For this reason, toolbox functions are equipped with options to streamline float selection, data processing, and figure creation with minimal user coding, if desired. Alternatively, the toolbox also provides rapid and straightforward access to the entire Argo database for experienced users who simply want to download up-to-date profile data for further processing and analysis. The authors hope these new tools will empower current Argo data users and entrain new users, especially as the US GO-BGC Project and US and international Argo partners move toward a global biogeochemical Argo fleet, which will create myriad new opportunities for novel studies of ocean biogeochemistry.

Authors
Jonathan Sharp – Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies (CICOES) & NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL)
Hartmut Frenzel – CICOES & NOAA PMEL
Marin Cornec – University of Washington & NOAA PMEL
Yibin Huang – University of California Santa Cruz & NOAA PMEL
Andrea Fassbender – NOAA PMEL

The ephemeral and elusive COVID blip in ocean carbon

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, September 20th, 2021

The global pandemic of the last nearly two years has affected all of us on a daily and long-term basis. Our planet is not exempt from these impacts. Can we see a signal of COVID-related CO₂ emissions reductions in the ocean? In a recent study, Lovenduski et al. apply detection and attribution analysis to output from an ensemble of COVID-like simulations of an Earth system model to answer this question. While it is nearly impossible to detect a COVID-related change in ocean pH, the model produces a unique fingerprint in air-sea DpCO₂ that is attributable to COVID. Challengingly, the large interannual variability in the climate system makes this fingerprint difficult to detect at open ocean buoy sites.

This study highlights the challenges associated with detecting statistically meaningful changes in ocean carbon and acidity following CO₂ emissions reductions, and reminds the reader that it may be difficult to observe intentional emissions reductions — such as those that we may enact to meet the Paris Climate Agreement – in the ocean carbon system.

Figure caption: The fingerprint (pink line) of COVID-related CO2 emissions reductions in global-mean surface ocean pH and air-sea DpCO2, as estimated by an ensemble of COVID-like simulations in an Earth system model. While the pH fingerprint is not particularly exciting, the air-sea DpCO2 fingerprint displays a temporary weakening of the ocean carbon sink in 2021 due to COVID emissions reductions.

Authors:
Nikki Lovenduski (University of Colorado Boulder)
Neil Swart (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis)
Adrienne Sutton (NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)
John Fyfe (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis)
Galen McKinley (Columbia University and Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory)
Chris Sabine (University of Hawai’i at Manoa)
Nancy Williams (University of South Florida)

pH: the secrets that you keep

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, September 20th, 2021

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines ocean acidification as “a reduction in pH of the ocean over an extended period, typically decades or longer, caused primarily by the uptake of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere” (Rhein et al., 2013, p. 295). Does this mean that a greater change in pH at the ocean surface relative to the subsurface, or at one location relative to another, always indicates greater acidification? Based on this IPCC definition of ocean acidification, the answer is yes. But does that make sense?

Seawater pH is the negative base 10 logarithm of the seawater’s hydrogen ion concentration ([H⁺]) and is a useful way to display a wide range of [H⁺] in a compact form. A change in pH reflects a relative change in [H⁺]. Thus, anytime we speak of pH changes, we are really referring to a relative change in the chemical species of interest ([H⁺]). On the other hand, changes in all the other carbonate system variables that we measure are usually absolute. This characteristic of pH can lead to ambiguity in the interpretation and presentation of rates and patterns of change. Improved understanding comes from also studying changes in [H⁺], which can reveal aspects that studying changes in pH alone may conceal or overemphasize.

A recent Biogeosciences article reviewed the history leading to this unintuitive relationship between changes in pH and changes in [H⁺]. The article provides three real-world examples to display how examining pH changes alone can hide the ocean acidification signals of interest (Figure 1). These examples highlight potential challenges associated with comparing surface and subsurface pH changes across ocean domains without accounting for differences in the initial pH values. The authors recommend reporting both pH and [H⁺] in studies that assess changes in ocean chemistry to improve the clarity of ocean acidification research.

Figure Caption: Data used in this figure come from the GFDL ESM2M model for the combined historical and RCP8.5 experiments. Top: the 1950s surface ocean (left) pH and (right) [H+]. Bottom: the 1950s to 2090s change (Δ) in surface ocean (left) pH and (right) [H+]. The color bar for ΔpH is reversed to ease comparison with patterns of Δ[H+]

Authors:
Andrea J. Fassbender (NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)
Andrew G. Dickson (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego)
James C. Orr (LSCE/IPSL, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement)

Extreme events are accelerating coastal carbon cycling

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, March 1st, 2021

The world is getting stormier, and recent evidence shows significant impacts on coastal carbon cycling. The upticks in extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones have resulted in enhanced delivery of nutrients and organic matter across the land-ocean continuum. Lagoonal estuaries such as the Albemarle-Pamlico Sound (APS) in North Carolina and Galveston Bay in Texas are key coastal environments in which we can observe the long-term carbon cycling consequences of these events. Residence times of these coastal environments are on the order of months to over a year, providing ample opportunity for biogeochemical processing. Emerging from studies of Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico hurricanes in 2016 and 2017 is a clear example of the role of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) as a key reactant driving the observed carbon cycling and ecosystem effects ( Figure 1).

Figure. 1. The impact of hurricanes on CO₂ fluxes (top) and terrestrial DOC decay constants (bottom) demonstrate the sustained effect on the coastal carbon cycle caused by extreme weather events. Top panel shows results from Hurricane Matthew in 2016, where date is month and day and Km downstream represents observations taken along the main axis of the Neuse River Estuary and lower Pamlico Sound, eastern North Carolina. F_CO2 is the daily sea-to-air flux of CO₂ estimated from measurements of temperature, salinity, dissolved inorganic carbon, and wind speed. The results indicate the Sound existed as a weak yet sustained CO2 source to the atmosphere well after the storm. Outgassing of CO₂ is driven by the rapid mineralization of terrestrial DOC. Bottom panel shows the high bioreactivity of flood-derived terrestrial DOC indicated by elevated microbial decay constants for Galveston Bay and the coastal Gulf of Mexico in 2017 as compared to high and low latitude coastal environments.

In coastal North Carolina, 36 tropical cyclones (TCs), including three floods of historical significance in the past two decades, have occurred in the past 20 years. The lingering effects of these storms include extensive periods of carbon dioxide (CO₂) supersaturation. For example, Hurricane Matthew in 2016 caused the lower Pamlico Sound to emit CO₂ for months after the passage of the storm. With similar results documented for the Pamlico Sound for storms in 2011 and 2012, there is solid evidence that shifts in the ecosystem state of this mesotrophic estuary from net autotrophic to net heterotrophic are a major effect of this process.

Reactive DOC from the landscape appears to be driving the shift in ecosystem state. Large plumes of brown-colored DOC are observable from space in numerous satellite images of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts following these storms. The color is part of a phenomenon known as “coastal darkening"—spectroscopic, stable isotopic, and biomarker evidence show this darkening is related to the flushing of wetlands in the flood-plain adjacent to the rivers draining into these estuaries.

Along the Texas coast, Hurricane Harvey produced the largest rainfall event recorded in US history and caused extensive flooding in 2017. Similar to results from coastal North Carolina, flood-derived terrestrial DOC in Galveston Bay exhibited high bioreactivity, with decay constants exceeding those observed for terrestrial DOC across coastal environments from high and low latitudes by almost three-fold. The rapid processing of terrestrial DOC was linked to an active microbial community capable of decomposing aromatic compounds that are abundant in colored DOC as indicated by genomic analyses. These recent studies clearly demonstrate the impacts of large storm events on coastal carbon cycling via the transport of reactive terrestrial DOC into coastal waters. Climate-driven increases in the frequency and intensity of such storm events warrant more sustained capacity to monitor episodic deliveries of carbon and nutrients and their impacts on coastal marine ecosystems.

Authors:
Chris Osburn (North Carolina State University) @closburn
Hans Paerl (University of North Carolina, Institute of Marine Sciences)
Ge Yan (Institute of Deep-Sea Science and Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Karl Kaiser (Texas A&M University, Galveston Campus)

Citations:

Yan, G., Labonté, J. M., Quigg, A., & Kaiser, K. (2020). Hurricanes accelerate dissolved organic carbon cycling in coastal ecosystems. Frontiers in Marine Science, 7, 248.

Osburn, C. L., Rudolph, J. C., Paerl, H. W., Hounshell, A. G., & Van Dam, B. R. (2019). Lingering carbon cycle effects of Hurricane Matthew in North Carolina's coastal waters. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(5), 2654-2661.

Does ocean acidification make marine fish grow differently? What about sex-specific effects?

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, February 8th, 2021

The question of whether ocean acidification (OA) will impact the growth of marine fish remains surprisingly uncertain. The bulk of available evidence in the form of laboratory experiments suggests that most fish are not impacted by OA-relevant CO₂ levels, but many studies suffer from the inherent methodical constraints of rearing marine fish in captivity. For example, most experiments cover a small fraction of a species’ lifespan and do not employ restricted feeding regimes which may enable fish to increase feeding to offset metabolic deficits associated with high-CO₂ acclimation.

To address these methodological shortcomings, authors of a recent publication in PLOS One synthesized three years of multiple long-term, food-controlled experiments that reared large populations of the model forage fish Menidia menidia (Atlantic silverside) from fertilization to about a third of their lifespan. Results showed modest but consistent negative, temperature-dependent growth effects, in which silversides from high-CO₂ treatments were shorter (-3% to -9%) and weighed less (-6% to -18%) than ambient-CO₂ conspecifics. However, sometimes it takes more than just looking at means and standard deviations to elucidate these effects. Hence, the authors employed powerful shift functions to analyze how the size distributions of experimental populations shifted to smaller quantiles under future CO₂ conditions.

Figure caption: The length of juvenile Atlantic silversides reared from fertilization under control (blue dots) and high-CO₂ treatments (red dots). Exposure to OA conditions imposed a universal shift to a smaller body size across the size frequency distribution. Black vertical bars overlaying each distribution indicate the .1, .25, .5, .75, and .9 quantiles and quantile shifts are indicated by connecting lines.

It took over 100 days of continuous high-CO₂ exposure until size differences were detectable. This means that long-term CO₂effects could exist in other tested species but are missed in relatively short experiments. Furthermore, the authors sexed several thousand fish to enable a rare sex-specific analysis of CO₂ effects. Both sexes were similarly affected by high CO₂, and the hormonal pathways that mediate environmental sex determination in this species are not impacted by CO₂ level. Our results confirm that Atlantic silversides are relatively tolerant of future OA conditions. But even in this robust estuarine species, high CO₂ can reduce growth. This could have cascading effects on population dynamics by impacting size-dependent traits like reproductive success and over-wintering survival of this widespread and ecologically important prey species.

Authors
Christopher S. Murray (University of Washington)
Hannes Baumann (University of Connecticut)

Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

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