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New over-determined CO2 system solver QUODcarb

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, May 29th, 2025

Do you work with over-determined datasets of seawater carbon dioxide system chemistry? QUODcarb (Quantifying Uncertainty in an Over-Determined marine carbonate system), a new over-determined CO2-system solver is described in the recently published “QUODcarb: A Bayesian solver for over-determined datasets of seawater carbon dioxide system chemistry.” The Bayesian formulation of the novel solver and demonstrates its use on an over-determined dataset from the Gulf of Mexico (COMECC-3) that included measurements of DIC, AT, pH, pCO2, and [CO3]. The over-determined calculations, with self-consistent uncertainty quantification, can calculate carbonate ion concentration uncertainty within the GOA-ON climate uncertainty target of 1% with implications for ocean acidification monitoring projects.

Find the Matlab code on GitHub: https://github.com/fprimeau/QUODcarb

Figure caption: Diagram depicting the measured quantities (left side) and the use of thermodynamic constant (pK) formulations and mass balance total (_T) formulations in seawater carbonate chemistry calculations. Adapted from Figure 1 in Carter et al., 2024 a, to illustrate how QUODcarb can replace CO2SYS calculations to include three or more carbonate variable measurements in over-determined calculations while also enabling uncertainty quantification.
Physical measurements are shown with pink backgrounds, mass balance total contents are shown with light green backgrounds, thermodynamic constants are in gray, and carbonate chemistry variables are in yellow. Temperature dependent carbonate chemistry measurements (e.g., pH and pCO2) may be included at different input temperatures. The calculator reflects the analogy that QUODcarb acts as a calculator for solving the system of nonlinear equations.

Authors
Marina Fennell (University of California, Irvine)
Francois Primeau (University of California, Irvine)

Swirling Currents: How Ocean Mesoscale Affects Air-Sea CO2 Exchange

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, October 25th, 2024

Due to a sparsity of in‐situ observations and the computational burden of eddy‐resolving global simulations, there has been little analysis on how mesoscale processes (e.g., eddies, meanders—lateral scales of 10s to 100s km) influence air‐sea CO₂ fluxes from a global perspective. Recently, it became computationally feasible to implement global eddy‐resolving [O (10) km] ocean biogeochemical models. Many questions related to the influence of mesoscale motions on CO₂ fluxes remain open, including whether ocean eddies serve as hotspots for CO₂ sink or source in specific dynamic regions.

A recent study in Geophysical Research Letters investigated the contribution of ocean mesoscale variability to air-sea CO₂ fluxes by analyzing the CO₂ flux anomaly within the mesoscale band using a coarse-graining approach in a global eddy-resolving biogeochemical simulation. We found that in eddy-rich mid-latitude regions, ocean mesoscale variability can contribute to over 30% of the total CO₂ flux variability. The cumulative net CO₂ flux associated with mesoscale motions is on the order of 10⁵ tC per year. The global pattern of cumulative mesoscale-related CO₂ flux exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, with the highest values in western boundary currents, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and the equatorial Pacific. The local distribution of cumulative mesoscale-related CO₂ flux displays zonal bands alternate between positive (a net source) and negative (a net sink) due to the meandering nature of ocean mesoscale currents, which is related to local relative vorticity and the background cross-stream pCO₂ gradient.

Figure caption. Mesoscale (<nominal 2 degree) contribution to air‐sea CO₂ flux (F^<2°_CO2)in the model. (a)–(d) Monthly time series of F^<2°_CO2 (black lines) and cumulative F^<2°_CO2 (green/red solid lines) in four locations marked in (e). Dashed lines are the least squares regression of cumulative flux for the period 1982–2000; slopes are indicated in the bottom left; (e) Blue colors imply a CO₂ sink, and red colors represent a source. The figure shows the global distribution of the regressed slopes of cumulative F^<2°_CO2. Units are converted from mol m^-2 per year to kg of CO₂ per year using the atomic mass of CO₂. This figure shows significant spatial heterogeneity of mesoscale-modulated CO₂ flux, showing contributions to both CO₂ sources and sinks across different regions of the ocean, with a magnitude on the order of 10⁵ tC per year.

Authors
Yiming Guo (Yale University; now at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Mary-Louise Timmermans (Yale University)

Carbon sequestration by the biological pump is not exclusive to the deep ocean

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, April 16th, 2024

The biological carbon pump plays a key role in ocean carbon sequestration by transporting organic carbon from the upper ocean to deeper waters via three broad processes: the sinking of organic particles, vertical migration of organisms, and physical mixing. Most studies assume that century-scale carbon sequestration occurs only in the deep ocean, thus have missed sequestration that happens in the water column above 1,000m.

A recent publication reassessed the biological pump’s century-scale (≥100 years) carbon sequestration fluxes throughout the water column, by implementing the concept of ‘continuous vertical sequestration’ (CONVERSE). The resulting CONVERSE estimates were up to three times higher than those estimated at 1,000 m. This method shows that not only are these fluxes higher than previously thought, but also that vertical migration and physical mixing, which are generally neglected, make a significant contribution (20-30%) to carbon sequestration.

The CONVERSE method provides a new metric for calculations of the biological pump’s century-scale carbon sequestration flux that can be used to diagnose future changes in carbon sequestration fluxes in prognostic models of ocean biogeochemistry.

Interested in learning more? View more results and figures here.

Authors
Florian Ricour (Institute of Natural Sciences, Belgium)
Lionel Guidi (CNRS and Sorbonne University, France)
Marion Gehlen (CEA, CNRS and Paris-Saclay University, France)
Timothy Devries (University of California at Santa Barbara, USA)
Louis Legendre (Sorbonne University, France)

@LionelGuidi
@ComplexLov
@CNRS_INSU

A suite of CO2 removal approaches modeled for the 1.5 ˚C future

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, August 31st, 2023

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is “unavoidable” in efforts to limit end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C. This is because some greenhouse gas emissions sources—non-CO₂ from agriculture, and CO₂ from shipping, aviation, and industrial processes—will be difficult to avoid, requiring CDR to offset their climate impacts. Policymakers are interested in a wide variety of ways to draw down CO₂ from the atmosphere, but to date, the modeling scenarios that inform international climate policies have mostly used biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) as a proxy for all CDR. It is critical to understand the potential of a full suite of CDR technologies, to understand their interactions with energy-water-land systems and to begin preparing for these impacts.

Figure caption: Each of the six carbon dioxide removal approaches identified in recent U.S. legislation and modeled for this study could bring unique benefits and tradeoffs to the energy-water-land system. This image depicts afforestation, direct ocean capture, direct air capture, biochar, enhanced weathering, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in clockwise order. Floating carbon dioxide molecules hover above the landscape (image credit: Nathan Johnson, PNNL).

A recent study published in the journal Nature Climate Change was the first to model six major CDR pathways in an integrated assessment model. The modeled pathways range from bioenergy with carbon storage and afforestation (already represented by most models), also direct air capture, biochar and crushed basalt spreading on global croplands, and electrochemical stripping of CO₂ from seawater aka direct ocean capture. The removal potential contributed by each of the six pathways varies widely across different regions of the world. Direct ocean capture showed the smallest removal potential but has important potential synergies with water desalination. This method could help arid regions such as the Middle East meet their water needs in a warming world. Enhanced weathering has much larger (GtCO₂-yr^-1) removal potential and could potentially help ameliorate ocean acidification. Overall, similar total amounts of CO₂ are removed compared to other modeling scenarios, but broader set of technologies lessens the risk that any one of them would become politically or environmentally untenable.

Authors:
Jay Fuhrman (Joint Global Change Research Institute)
Candelaria Bergero (Joint Global Change Research Institute)
Maridee Weber (Joint Global Change Research Institute)
Seth Monteith (ClimateWorks Foundation)
Frances M. Wang (ClimateWorks Foundation)
Andres F. Clarens (University of Virginia)
Scott C. Doney (University of Virginia)
William Shobe (University of Virginia)
Haewon McJeon (Joint Global Change Research Institute )

Twitter: @pnnlab @climateworks @uva

Enhanced-warming Kuroshio Current experiences rapid seawater acidification and CO2 increase

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, March 30th, 2023

In order to project the future states of the climate and the marine ecosystem it is vital to understand the long-term changes in ocean carbon chemistry driven by anthropogenic influence. A paucity of data make the rates of seawater acidification and partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) rise on ocean margins highly uncertain.

Figure 1. Graphic summary of 9 years of data from the Kuroshio Current time-series: (a) under the influences of only atmospheric CO2 increase, (b) the combined effect of atmospheric CO2 increase, SST increase, and additional DIC supply, (c) annually averaged air-sea CO2 flux decrease, (d) Projected seawater pCO2 increase under SST rise and sustained DIC increase.

A recent study in Marine Pollution Bulletin documented the rapid increase of seawater pCO₂ (3.70±0.57 matm year^-1) and acidification (pH at -0.0033±0.0009 unit year^-1) along Kuroshio in the East China Sea (Figure 1). These findings were based on nine years of time-series data ( 2010-2018) which are now available on the website of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). These trends are significantly greater than the expected rates from CO₂air-sea equilibrium and those reported from other oceanic time-series studies. Interestingly, they showed the contribution of each parameter such as sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and normalized dissolved inorganic carbon (nDIC) and total alkalinity (nTA) to the pCO₂ variability. Seawater warming caused rapid rates of pCO₂increase and acidification under sustained DIC increase. The faster pCO₂growth relative to the atmosphere resulted in the CO₂uptake through the air-sea exchange declining by ~50% (~-0.8 to -0.4 mol C m^-2 y^-1) over the study period.

If this trend continues and the atmospheric CO₂increases at its current rate, the rapid warming Kuroshio regions could change from a sink to a source of CO₂ , and cause a loss of oceanic CO₂ uptake in the near future (ca. 2030-2040). Further, other “warming hotspots” in the global ocean along western boundary currents with a continuous DIC supply may exhibit similarly accelerated acidification and pCO₂ rise. This could lead to a significant reduction in ocean CO₂ uptake.

Authors:
Shou-En Tsao (Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taiwan)
Po-Yen Shen (Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taiwan)
Chun-Mao Tseng^* (Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taiwan)

Integrated analysis of carbon dioxide and oxygen concentrations as a quality control of ocean float data

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, August 26th, 2022

A recent study in Communications Earth & Environment, examined spatiotemporal patterns of the two dissolved gases CO₂ and O₂in the surface ocean, using the high-quality global dataset GLODAPv2.2020. We used surface ocean data from GLODAP to make plots of carbon dioxide and oxygen relative to saturation (CORS plots). These plots of CO₂ deviations from saturation (ΔCO₂) against oxygen deviations from saturation (ΔO₂) (Figure 1) provide detailed insight into the identity and intensity of biogeochemical processes operating in different basins.

Figure 1: Relationships between ΔCO₂ and ΔO₂ in the global ocean basins based on surface data in the GLODAPv2.2020 database. The black dashed lines are the least-squares best-fit lines to the data; unc denotes the uncertainty in the y-intercept value with 95% confidence; r is the associated Pearson correlation coefficient; n is the number of data points.

In addition, data in all basins and all seasons shares some common behaviors: (1) negative slopes of best fit lines to the data, and (2) near-zero y-intercepts of those lines. We utilized these findings to compare patterns in CORS plots from GLODAP with those from BGC-Argo float data from the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling (SOCCOM) program. Given that the float O₂ data is likely to be more accurate than the float pH data (from which the float CO₂ is calculated), CORS plots are useful for detecting questionable float CO₂ data, by comparing trends in float CORS plots (e.g. Figure 2) to trends in GLODAP CORS plots (Figure 1). As well as the immediately detected erroneous data, we discovered significant discrepancies in ΔCO₂-ΔO₂ y-intercepts compared to the global reference (i.e., GLODAPv2.2020 y-intercepts, Figure 1). The y-intercepts of 48 floats with QCed O₂ and CO₂ data (at regions south of 55°S) were on average greater by 0.36 μmol kg⁻¹ than the GLODAP-derived ones, implying the overestimations of float-based CO₂ release in the Southern Ocean.

Figure 2. CORS plots from data collected by SOCCOM floats F9096 and F9099 in the high-latitude Southern Ocean. Circles with solid edges denote data flagged as ‘good’, whereas crosses denote data flagged as ‘questionable’.

Our study demonstrates CORS plots’ ability to identify questionable data (data shown to be questionable by other QC methods) and to reveal issues with supposed ‘good’ data (i.e., quality issues not picked up by other QC methods). CORS plots use only surface data, hence this QC method complements existing methods based on analysis of deep data. As the oceanographic community becomes increasingly reliant on data collected from autonomous platforms, techniques like CORS will help diagnose data quality, and immediately detect questionable data.

Authors:
Yingxu Wu (Polar and Marine Research Institute, Jimei University, Xiamen, China; University of Southampton)
Dorothee C.E. Bakker (University of East Anglia)
Eric P. Achterberg (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel)
Amavi N. Silva (University of Southampton)
Daisy D. Pickup (University of Southampton)
Xiang Li (George Washington University)
Sue Hartman (National Oceanography Centre, Southampton)
David Stappard (University of Southampton)
Di Qi (Polar and Marine Research Institute, Jimei University, Xiamen, China)
Toby Tyrrell (University of Southampton)

Why are sand lance embryos so sensitive to future high CO2-oceans?

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, August 26th, 2022

Two decades of ocean acidification experiments have shown that elevated CO₂ can affect many traits in fish early life stages. Only few species, however, show direct CO₂-induced survival reductions. This may partly reflect a bias in our current empirical record, which is dominated by species from nearshore tropical-to-temperate environments. There, these organisms already experience highly variable CO₂ conditions. In contrast, fishes from more offshore habitats, especially at higher latitudes are adapted to more CO₂-stable conditions, which could make them more CO₂-sensitive. This group of fishes is still underrepresented in the literature, despite its enormous commercial and ecological importance.

To help address this gap, we conducted new experimental work on northern sand lance Ammodytes dubius, a key forage fish on offshore Northwest Atlantic sand banks with trophic links to more than 70 different predator species of fish, squid, seabirds, and marine mammals. On Stellwagen Bank in the southern Gulf of Maine, sand lance are the ‘backbone’ of the eponymous National Marine Sanctuary.

We followed up on the intriguing findings of a pilot study a few years ago. Over two years and two trials, we again produced embryos from wild, Stellwagen Bank spawners and reared them at several pCO₂ levels (~400−2000 μatm) in combination with static and dynamic temperatures. Again, we observed consistently large CO₂-induced reductions in hatching success (-23% at 1,000 µatm, -61% at ~2,000 µatm), but this time the effects were temperature-independent.

Intriguingly, we again saw that many sand lance embryos at high CO₂ treatments did not merely arrest in their development (indicative of acidosis), but appeared to develop fully to hatch but were somehow incapable of doing so. We show several lines of evidence supporting the hypothesis that CO₂ directly impairs hatching in this species. Most fish rely on hatching enzymes that help embryos break the chorion (egg shell), but these ubiquitous enzymes may work less efficiently under high CO₂, low pH conditions.

For additional context, we also derived long-term, seasonal pCO₂ projections specifically for Stellwagen Bank, which together with the experimental data suggested that increasing CO₂ levels alone could reduce sand lance hatching success to 71% of contemporary levels by the year 2100.

We believe that the importance of sand lances as forage fishes across most northern hemisphere shelf ecosystem warrants a strategic effort of OA researchers to begin testing other sand lance species or populations to understand the magnitude of the problem and its underlying mechanisms.

Authors:
Hannes Baumann (University of Connecticut)
Lucas Jones (University of Connecticut)
Christopher Murray (University of Washington)
Samantha Siedlecki (University of Connecticut)
Michael Alexander (NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory)
Emma Cross (Southern Connecticut State University)

Carbon fluxes in the coastal ocean: Synthesis, boundary processes and future trends

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, August 26th, 2022

A vital part of mitigating climate change is the coastal and open ocean carbon sink, without this, it is not possible to meet the target set by the Paris Agreement. More research is needed to better understand the ocean carbon cycle and its future role in the uptake of anthropogenic carbon. A review provides an analysis of the current qualitative and quantitative understanding of the coastal ocean carbon cycle at regional to global scales, with a focus on the air-sea CO₂ exchange. It includes novel findings obtained using the full breadth of methodological approaches, from observation-based studies and advanced statistical methods to conceptual and theoretical frameworks, and numerical modeling.

Figure 1: Updated sea-air CO₂ flux density (mol C m⁻² year⁻¹) in the global coastal oceans that reveals that the global coastal ocean is an integrated CO₂ sink with the strongest CO₂ uptake at high latitudes. The challenges associated with identifying current and projected responses of the coastal ocean and it source/sink role in the global carbon budget require observational networks that are coordinated and integrated with modeling programs; development of this capability is a priority for the ocean carbon research and management communities.

Based on a new quantitative synthesis of air-sea CO₂ exchange, this study yields an estimate for the globally integrated coastal ocean CO₂ flux of −0.25 ± 0.05 Pg C year⁻¹, with polar and subpolar regions accounting for most of the CO₂ removal (>90%). A framework that classifies river-dominated ocean margin (RiOMar) and ocean-dominated margin (OceMar) systems is used in to conceptualize coastal carbon cycle processes. Ocean carbon models are reviewed in terms of the ability to simulate key processes and project future changes in different continental shelf regions. Concurrent trends and changes in the land-ocean-atmosphere coupled system introduce large uncertainties into projections of ocean carbon fluxes, in particular into defining the role of the coastal carbon sink and its evolution, both of which are of fundamental importance to climate science and climate policies developed before and after achievement of net-zero CO₂ emissions. The major gaps and challenges identified for current coastal ocean carbon research have important implications for climate and sustainability policies. This study is a contribution to the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Phase 2 supported by the Global Carbon Project.

Authors:
M. H. Dai, J. Z. Su, Y. Y. Z., E. E. Hofmann, Z. M. Cao, W.-J. Cai, J. P. Gan, F. Lacroix, G. G. Laruelle, F. F. Meng, J. D. Müller, P. A.G. Regnier, G. Z. Wang, and Z. X. Wang

Powerful new tools for working with Argo data

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, June 9th, 2022

No single program has been as transformative for ocean science over the past two decades as Argo: the fleet of robotic instruments that collect measurements of temperature and salinity in the upper 2 km of the ocean around the globe. The Argo program has been instrumental in revealing changes to ocean heat content, global sea level, and patterns of ice melt and precipitation. In addition, Biogeochemical Argo—the branch of the Argo program focused on floats with additional biological and chemical sensors—has recently shed light on topics such as regional patterns of carbon production and export, the magnitude of carbon dioxide air-sea flux in the Southern Ocean (thanks to the SOCCOM project), and the dynamics modulating ocean oxygen concentrations and oxygen minimum zones. While Argo data are publicly available in near-real-time via two Global Data Assembly Centers, there tends to be a steep learning curve for new users seeking to access and utilize the data.

To address this issue, a team led by scientists at NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory developed a software toolbox available in two programming languages for accessing and visualizing Argo data— OneArgo-Mat for MATLAB and OneArgo-R for R. The toolbox includes functions to identify and download float data that adhere to user-defined time and space constraints, and other optional requirements like sensor type and data mode; plot float trajectories and their current positions; filter and manipulate float data based on quality flags and additional metadata; and create figures (profiles, time series, and sections) displaying physical, biological, and chemical properties measured by floats. Examples of figures created using the OneArgo-Mat toolbox are given below (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Example figures created using the OneArgo-Mat toolbox: (A) the trajectory of a float deployed in the North Atlantic from the R/V Johan Hjort in May of 2019, (B) a time series of dissolved oxygen at 80 dbars from that float, and (C) a vertical section plot of nitrate concentrations along the float track from the surface to 300 dbars. The black contour line in panel C denotes the mixed layer depth (MLD) based on a temperature criterion and the red line denotes the depth of the time series shown in panel B. The effects of seasonal phytoplankton blooms are evident in panel C, with mixed layer shoaling in the spring followed by drawdown of nitrate in the surface ocean. Panel B shows that, as the mixed layer deepens through the winter, the oxygen concentration at 80 dbars increases as a result of the oxygenated surface waters reaching that depth. The MATLAB code to download the required data and create all of these plots is shown (D).

The OneArgo-Mat and OneArgo-R toolboxes are intended for newcomers to Argo data, seasoned users, data managers, and everyone in between. For this reason, toolbox functions are equipped with options to streamline float selection, data processing, and figure creation with minimal user coding, if desired. Alternatively, the toolbox also provides rapid and straightforward access to the entire Argo database for experienced users who simply want to download up-to-date profile data for further processing and analysis. The authors hope these new tools will empower current Argo data users and entrain new users, especially as the US GO-BGC Project and US and international Argo partners move toward a global biogeochemical Argo fleet, which will create myriad new opportunities for novel studies of ocean biogeochemistry.

Authors
Jonathan Sharp – Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies (CICOES) & NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL)
Hartmut Frenzel – CICOES & NOAA PMEL
Marin Cornec – University of Washington & NOAA PMEL
Yibin Huang – University of California Santa Cruz & NOAA PMEL
Andrea Fassbender – NOAA PMEL

The ephemeral and elusive COVID blip in ocean carbon

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, September 20th, 2021

The global pandemic of the last nearly two years has affected all of us on a daily and long-term basis. Our planet is not exempt from these impacts. Can we see a signal of COVID-related CO₂ emissions reductions in the ocean? In a recent study, Lovenduski et al. apply detection and attribution analysis to output from an ensemble of COVID-like simulations of an Earth system model to answer this question. While it is nearly impossible to detect a COVID-related change in ocean pH, the model produces a unique fingerprint in air-sea DpCO₂ that is attributable to COVID. Challengingly, the large interannual variability in the climate system makes this fingerprint difficult to detect at open ocean buoy sites.

This study highlights the challenges associated with detecting statistically meaningful changes in ocean carbon and acidity following CO₂ emissions reductions, and reminds the reader that it may be difficult to observe intentional emissions reductions — such as those that we may enact to meet the Paris Climate Agreement – in the ocean carbon system.

Figure caption: The fingerprint (pink line) of COVID-related CO2 emissions reductions in global-mean surface ocean pH and air-sea DpCO2, as estimated by an ensemble of COVID-like simulations in an Earth system model. While the pH fingerprint is not particularly exciting, the air-sea DpCO2 fingerprint displays a temporary weakening of the ocean carbon sink in 2021 due to COVID emissions reductions.

Authors:
Nikki Lovenduski (University of Colorado Boulder)
Neil Swart (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis)
Adrienne Sutton (NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)
John Fyfe (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis)
Galen McKinley (Columbia University and Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory)
Chris Sabine (University of Hawai’i at Manoa)
Nancy Williams (University of South Florida)

Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

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