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Archive for estuarine and coastal carbon fluxes – Page 2

Water clarity impacts temperature and biogeochemistry in Chesapeake Bay

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, December 3rd, 2020

Estuarine water clarity is determined by suspended materials in the water, including colored dissolved organic matter, phytoplankton, sediment, and detritus. These constituents directly affect temperature because when water is opaque, sunlight heats only the shallowest layers near the surface, but when water is clear, sunlight can penetrate deeper, warming the waters below the surface. Despite the importance of accurately predicting temperature variability, many numerical modeling studies do not adequately parameterize this fundamental relationship between water clarity and temperature.

In a recent study published in Estuaries and Coasts, the authors quantified the impact of a more realistic representation of water clarity in a hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model of the Chesapeake Bay by comparing two simulations: (1) water clarity is constant in space and time for the calculation of solar heating vs. (2) water clarity varies with modeled concentrations of light-attenuating materials. In the variable water clarity simulation (2), the water is more opaque, particularly in the northern region of the Bay. During the spring and summer months, the lower water clarity in the northern Bay is associated with warmer surface temperatures and colder bottom temperatures. Warmer surface temperatures encourage phytoplankton growth and nutrient uptake near the head of the Bay, thus fewer nutrients are transported downstream. These conditions are exacerbated during high-river flow years, when differences in temperature, nutrients, phytoplankton, and zooplankton extend further seaward.

Figure 1: Top row: Difference in the light attenuation coefficient for shortwave heating, kh[m-1] (variable minus constant light attenuation simulation). June, July, and August average for (A) 2001, (B) average of 2001-2005, and (C) 2003; difference in bottom temperatures [oC] (variable minus constant). Bottom row: Difference in June, July, and August average bottom temperature for (D) 2001, (E) average of 2001-2005, and (F) 2003. Data for 2001 are representative of low river discharge, and 2003 are representative high river discharge years.

This work demonstrates that a constant light attenuation scheme for heating calculations in coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical models underestimates temperature variability, both temporally and spatially. This is an important finding for researchers who use models to predict future temperature variability and associated impacts on biogeochemistry and species habitability.

Authors:
Grace E. Kim (NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center)
Pierre St-Laurent (VIMS, William & Mary)
Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs (VIMS, William & Mary)
Antonio Mannino (NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center)

A new Regional Earth System Model of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemical dynamics

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, November 19th, 2020

The Mediterranean Sea is a semi-enclosed mid-latitude oligotrophic basin with a lower net primary production than the global ocean. A west-east productivity trophic gradient results from the superposition of biogeochemical and physical processes, including the biological pump and associated carbon and nutrient (nitrogen, phosphorus) fluxes, the spatial asymmetric distribution of nutrient sources (rivers, atmospheric deposition, coastal upwelling, etc.), the estuarine inverse circulation associated with the inflow of Atlantic water through the Gibraltar Strait. The complex and highly variable interface between land and sea throughout this basin add a further layer of complexity in the Mediterranean oceanic and atmospheric circulation and on the associated biogeochemistry dynamics, emphasizing the need for high-resolution truly integrated Regional Earth System Models to track and understand fine-scale processes and ecosystem dynamics.

In a recent paper published in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth System, the authors introduced a new version of the Regional Earth System model RegCM-ES and evaluated its performance in the Mediterranean region. RegCM-ES fully integrates the regional climate model RegCM4, the land surface scheme CLM4.5 (Community Land Model), the river routing model HD (Hydrological Discharge Model), the ocean model MITgcm (MIT General Circulation model) and the Biogeochemical Flux Model BFM.

A comparison with available observations has shown that RegCM-ES was able to capture the mean climate of the region and to reproduce horizontal and vertical patterns of chlorophyll-a and PO₄(the limiting nutrient in the basin) (Figure 1). The same comparison revealed a systematic underestimation of simulated dissolved oxygen (which will be fixed by the use of a new parametrization of oxygen solubility), and an overestimation of NO₃, possibly due to uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions (mostly traced to river and Dardanelles nutrient discharges) and an overly vigorous vertical mixing simulated by the ocean model in some parts of the Basin.

Figure.1 Distributions of chlorophyll-a mg/m³ (top) and PO₄ mmol/m³ (bottom) in the Mediterranean Sea as simulated by RegCM-ES.

Overall, this analysis has demonstrated that RegCM-ES has the capabilities required to become a powerful tool for studying regional dynamics and impacts of climate change on the Mediterranean Sea and other ocean basins around the world.

Authors:
Marco Reale (Abdus Salam International Centre for theoretical physics-ICTP, National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics-OGS)
Filippo Giorgi (Abdus Salam International Centre for theoretical physics-ICTP)
Cosimo Solidoro (National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics-OGS)
Valeria Di Biagio (National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics-OGS)
Fabio Di Sante (Abdus Salam International Centre for theoretical physics-ICTP)
Laura Mariotti (National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics-OGS)
Riccardo Farneti (Abdus Salam International Centre for theoretical physics-ICTP)
Gianmaria Sannino (Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development-ENEA)

Estuarine sediment resuspension drives non-local impacts on biogeochemistry

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, September 18th, 2020

Sediment processes, including resuspension and transport, affect water quality in estuaries by altering light attenuation, primary productivity, and organic matter remineralization, which then influence oxygen and nitrogen dynamics. In a recent paper published in Estuaries and Coasts, the authors quantified the degree to which sediment resuspension and transport affected estuarine biogeochemistry by implementing a coupled hydrodynamic-sediment transport-biogeochemical model of the Chesapeake Bay. By comparing summertime model runs that either included or neglected seabed resuspension, the study revealed that resuspension increased light attenuation, especially in the northernmost portion of the Bay, which subsequently shifted primary production downstream (Figure 1). Resuspension also increased remineralization in the central Bay, which experienced higher organic matter concentrations due to the downstream shift in primary productivity. When combined with estuarine circulation, these resuspension-induced shifts caused oxygen to increase and ammonium to increase throughout the Bay in the bottom portion of the water column. Averaged over the channel, resuspension decreased oxygen by ~25% and increased ammonium by ~50% for the bottom water column. Changes due to resuspension were of the same order of magnitude as, and generally exceeded, short-term variations within individual summers, as well as interannual variability between wet and dry years. This work highlights the importance of a localized process like sediment resuspension and its capacity to drive biogeochemical variations on larger spatial scales. Documenting the spatiotemporal footprint of these processes is critical for understanding and predicting the response of estuarine and coastal systems to environmental changes, and for informing management efforts.

Figure 1: Schematic of how resuspension affects biogeochemical processes based on HydroBioSed model estimates for Chesapeake Bay.

Authors:
Julia M. Moriarty (University of Colorado Boulder)
Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)
Courtney K. Harris (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)

Also see the Geobites piece “Muddy waters lead to decreased oxygen in Chesapeake Bay” on this publication, by Hadley McIntosh Marcek

The role of nutrient trapping in promoting shelf hypoxia in the southern Benguela upwelling system

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, September 3rd, 2020

The southern Benguela upwelling system (SBUS) off southwest Africa is an exceptionally fertile ocean region that supports valuable commercial fisheries. The productivity of this system derives from the upwelling of nutrient-rich Subantarctic Mode Water, and from the concurrent entrainment of nutrients regenerated proximately on the expansive continental shelf. The SBUS is prone to severe seasonal hypoxic events that decimate regional fisheries, occurrences of which are inextricably linked to the inherent nutrient dynamics. In a study recently published in JGR Oceans, the authors sought to understand the mechanisms sustaining elevated concentrations and seasonally-variable distributions of nutrients in the SBUS, in relation to the subsurface oxygen content. Inter-seasonal measurements of nutrients and nitrate isotope ratios across the SBUS in 2017 revealed that upwards of 48% (summer) and 63% (winter) of the on‐shelf nutrients derived from regeneration in situ. The severity of hypoxia at the shelf bottom, in turn, correlated with the incidence of regenerated nutrients. The accrual of nutrients at the shelf bottom appears to be aided by hydrographic fronts that restrict offshore transport, trapping regenerated nutrients on the SBUS shelf and increasing the pool of nutrients available for upwelling – ultimately contributing to hypoxic events. This study underscores the need – if we are to develop a mechanistic and predictive understanding of hypoxia in the SBUS and elsewhere – to elucidate the role of shelf circulation in promoting the accrual of regenerated nutrients on the continental shelf. The next step is to combine new and existing observations with quantitative simulations to further interrogate the coupled physical-biogeochemical mechanisms that modulate the intensity of hypoxia.

Figure caption: Schematic of proposed nutrient-trapping mechanism: Deep nutrient-rich Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) acquires more nutrients as it passes over the shelf sediments from the regeneration of exported particulate organic material (POM). The production of this POM is fueled by nutrients stripped from the surface waters advecting back off-shore. The thickness of the arrows represents nutrient concentrations. Triangles indicate the positions of the Shelf Break Front (SBF) and Columbine Front (CF), coincident with an observed subduction of the Ekman layer and downwelling at the inner front boundary.

Authors
Raquel Flynn (University of Cape Town)
Julie Granger (University of Connecticut)
Jennifer Veitch (South African Environmental Observation Network)
Samantha Siedlecki (University of Connecticut)
Jessica Burger (University of Cape Town)
Keshnee Pillay (South Africa Department of Environment, Forestry and Fisheries)
Sarah Fawcett (University of Cape Town)

Space-based estimates of estuarine dissolved organic carbon flux to the Mid-Atlantic Bight

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, August 5th, 2020

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a food supplement that supports microorganism growth and plays a major role in the global carbon cycle via the microbial loop, which integrates DOC into the marine food web. DOC from two major estuaries on the US East Coast, Chesapeake (CB) and Delaware Bay (DB), represent major contributors to the adjacent shelf region’s carbon cycle. In a recent study published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, the authors combined an integrated tracer flux approach, field and satellite data, machine learning, and a physical circulation model to quantify DOC stocks and export fluxes at the mouths of CB and DB.

Figure 1: Model bathymetry for the CB and DB models (a). Twelve‐year (2003–2014) mean MODIS DOC for DB (b) and CB (c) with ROMS grid lines superposed in white and land mask in black. The white dots across the bay mouths are the grid points used in the flux computation. The squares in (a) correspond to the size (50 km × 50 km) and location of the DB and CB MODIS images shown in (b) and (c). The boxes near DB mouth in (b) delimit the cluster of available in situ data stations. The red star, red square, and red diamond near CB mouth in (c) are the locations of in situ data for validation.

Figure 2: Five‐year averaged cross-sections of DOC concentration (top), velocity, and DOC flux at the mouths of Chesapeake Bay (a–c, respectively) and Delaware Bay (d–f, respectively).

This novel methodology not only improved estimates of combined DB-CB DOC fluxes to the US East Coast, but it also improved quantification of contrasting estuarine properties that affect DOC export such as riverine inputs, timescales of variability, and geomorphology. The combined CB-DB DOC contribution represents 25% of the total organic carbon exported and 27% of the total atmospheric carbon dioxide taken up by the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB)—the coastal region extending from Massachusetts to North Carolina. Spatial and, to a lesser extent, temporal covariations of velocity and DOC concentration contributed to the fluxes. The primary drivers of DOC flux differences for these two estuaries are their geomorphologies and volumes of freshwater discharge into the bays (74 billion m³/year for CB and 21 billion m³/year for DB). Terrestrial DOC inputs are similar to the export of DOC at the bay mouths at annual and longer timescales, but diverge significantly at shorter timescales of days to months.

The five-year mean DOC flux for CB and DB are 0.21 (confidence intervals 0.15, 0.27) Tg C/year and 0.05 (0.04, 0.07) Tg C/year, respectively. A flux decomposition analysis showed that temporal and spatial covariations in the DOC flux at the mouth of both bays play a significant role in determining the net export of DOC from the estuaries, which suggests that accurate estimates of estuarine DOC export require information on scales that properly resolve the temporal and spatial variability of water flux and DOC concentration. Neglecting these temporal and spatial covariations in the DOC flux leads to a 40% underestimation of the DOC flux in CB and 28% in DB, which would have a significant impact on the accuracy of carbon budget assessments and the role that these estuaries have on the coastal environment. This combination of satellite and field observations with statistical and numerical models shows great promise for capturing these covariations to better quantify the role of estuaries in the coastal carbon cycle.

Authors:
Sergio R. Signorini (NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center)
Antonio Mannino (NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center)
Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs (VIMS, William and Mary)
Pierre St-Laurent (VIMS, William and Mary)
John Wilkin (Rutgers University)
Aboozar Tabatabai (Rutgers University)
Raymond G. Najjar (The Pennsylvania State University)
Eileen E. Hofmann (Old Dominium University)
Fei Da (VIMS, College of William and Mary)
Hanqin Tian (Auburn University)
Yuanzhi Yao (Auburn University)

The curious role of organic alkalinity in seawater carbonate chemistry

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, August 5th, 2020

The marine chemistry community has measured organic alkalinity in coastal and estuarine waters for over two decades. While the common perception is that any unaccounted alkalinity should enhance seawater buffer capacity, the effects of organic alkalinity on this buffering capacity, and hence the potential CO₂ uptake by coastal and estuarine systems are still not well quantified.

In a thought experiment recently published in Aquatic Geochemistry, the author added organic alkalinity to model seawater (salinity=35, temperature=15˚C, pCO₂=400 µatm) in the form of 1) organic acid (HOA) and 2) its conjugate base (OA^–). Results suggest that the weaker organic acid/conjugate base pair (pK_a ~8.2-8.3) yields the greatest buffering capacity under the simulation conditions. However, the HOA addition first displaces dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and causes CO₂ degassing; the resultant seawater buffer capacity can be greater or less than the original seawater, depending on the pK_a. In comparison, OA^– addition leads to CO₂ uptake and elevated seawater buffer capacity. As the organic anions are remineralized via biogeochemical processes, a “charge transfer” results in quantitative conversion to carbonate alkalinity (CA), which is overpowered by the concomitant CO₂ production (∆DIC>∆CA). Overall, the complete process (organic alkalinity addition and remineralization) results in a net CO₂ release from seawater, regardless of whether it is added in the form of HOA or OA^–.

Figure caption: A schematic illustration of the role of organic alkalinity on seawater carbonate chemistry in an open system (constant CO₂ partial pressure). Organic acid (HOA) addition leads to CO₂ degassing and varying seawater buffer (greater or lower than the original seawater) as a function of K_a. Organic base (OA^–) addition causes initial CO₂ uptake and overall elevated seawater buffer. Regardless, upon complete remineralization, more CO₂ is produced than the amount of net gain in carbonate alkalinity (OA^– addition only). Therefore, the complete process (organic acid/base addition and its ultimate remineralization) should result in net CO₂ degassing.

While the presence of organic alkalinity may increase seawater buffer capacity to some extent (depending on the pK_a values of the organic acid), CO₂ degassing from the seawater, because of both the initial organic acid addition and eventual remineralization of organic molecules, should be the net result. However, modern alkalinity analysis precludes the bases of stronger organic acids (pK_a < 4.5). This fraction of “potential” alkalinity, especially from river waters, remains a relevant topic for future alkalinity cycle studies. The potential alkalinity can be converted to bicarbonate through biogeochemical reactions (or charge transfer at face value), although it is unclear how significant this potential alkalinity is in rivers that flow into the ocean.

A backstory
The author used an example of vinegar and limewater (calcium hydroxide solution), which is employed by many aquarists to dose alkalinity and calcium in hard coral saltwater tanks, to demonstrate the conversion of organic base (acetate ion) to bicarbonate and CO₂ via complete remineralization. It is also known the added vinegar helps microbes to remove excess nitrate. This procedure had been in the author’s memory for the past nine years, ever since his previous research life when he participated in a study at a coral farm in a suburb of Columbus, Ohio. A strong vinegar odor would arise every now and then at the facility. However, a recent communication with the facility owner suggests that this memory was totally false and the owner simply used vinegar to get rid of lime (CaCO₃) buildup in the water pumps. Nonetheless, the chemistry in this paper should still hold, with that false memory serving as the inspiration.

Author:
Xinping Hu (Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi)

Arctic rivers as carbon highways

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, June 16th, 2020

Rapid environmental changes in the Arctic will potentially alter the atmospheric emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases such as methane (CH₄) and carbon dioxide (CO₂). A recent study on the Canadian Arctic published in Geophysical Research Letters reveals that spring meltwater delivery drives episodic outgassing events along the lake-river-bay continuum. This spring runoff period is not well-represented in prior studies, which, due to ease of sampling access, have focused more on summertime low-ice conditions. Study authors established a community-based monitoring program in Cambridge Bay and an adjacent inflowing river system in Nunavut, Canada from 2017-2018. These time-series data revealed that at the onset of the melt season river water contains methane concentrations up to 2000 times higher than observed in the bay from late summer through early spring (Figure 1 panel a). In addition, the authors deployed a novel robotic chemical sensing kayak (the ChemYak) in the Bay for five days in 2018 to densely sample water CH₄and CO₂levels in space and time during the spring thaw (Figure 1 panel b). The ChemYak observations revealed that river water containing elevated levels of both of these greenhouse gases flowed into the bay and outgassed to the atmosphere over a period of 5 days! The authors estimate that river inflow during the short melt season drives >95% of all annual methane emissions from the bay. These results demonstrate the need for seasonally-resolved sampling to accurately quantify greenhouse gas emissions from polar systems.

Figure 1: Panel a) Measurements of methane concentration in Cambridge Bay and an adjacent river showed strong seasonality; elevated concentrations were associated with river inflow at the start of the freshet. Panel b) Observations with the ChemYak robotic surface vehicle in Cambridge Bay revealed that excess methane was rapidly ventilated to the atmosphere following ice melt in the bay.

Authors
Cara Manning (University of British Columbia)
Victoria Preston (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Samantha Jones (University of Calgary)
Anna Michel (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
David Nicholson (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Patrick Duke (University of Calgary and University of Victoria)
Mohamed Ahmed (University of Calgary)
Kevin Manganini (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Brent Else (University of Calgary)
Philippe Tortell (University of British Columbia)

Global change impacts soil carbon storage in blue carbon ecosystems

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, May 20th, 2020

Vegetated coastal “blue carbon” ecosystems, including sea grasses, mangroves, and salt marshes, provide valuable ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, storm protection, critical habitat, etc.. Many of these services are supported by the ability of blue carbon ecosystems to accumulate soil organic carbon over thousands of years. Rapidly changing climate and environmental conditions will impact decomposition and thus the global reservoir of organic carbon in coastal soils. A recent Perspective article published in Nature Geoscience focused on the biogeochemical factors affecting decomposition in coastal soils, such as mineral protection, redox zonation, water content and movement, and plant-microbe interactions. The authors explored the spatial and temporal scales of these decomposition mechanisms and developed a conceptual framework to characterize how they may respond to environmental disturbances such as land-use change, nutrient loading, warming, and sea-level rise.

Figure caption: Temperate salt marshes (MA, USA). Healthy salt marshes have lush stands of grasses (top). Storms can expose peat deposits that have been buried for thousands of years (bottom). The fate of this soil carbon is unknown, but some fraction will be respired by microbes and returned to the atmosphere as CO₂.

Improved estimates of soil organic carbon in blue carbon systems will require better characterization of these processes from sustained data sets. Furthermore, incorporation of these decomposition mechanisms into ecosystem evolution models will improve our capacity to quantify and predict changes in these soil carbon reservoirs, which could facilitate their inclusion in global budgets and management tools.

Temperate salt marshes (MA, USA). Healthy salt marshes have lush stands of grasses (left/top). Storms can expose peat deposits that have been buried for thousands of years (right/bottom). The fate of this soil carbon is unknown, but some fraction will be respired by microbes and returned to the atmosphere as CO₂.

Authors:
Amanda C Spivak (University of Georgia)
Jon Sanderman (Woods Hole Research Center)
Jennifer Bowen (Northeastern University)
Elizabeth A. Canuel (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)
Charles S Hopkinson (University of Georgia)

Nitrate enrichment may threaten coastal wetland carbon storage

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, February 27th, 2020

With their high primary productivity and slow decomposition in anoxic soils, salt marshes and other coastal wetlands can store carbon more efficiently than terrestrial uplands. These wetlands also provide critical ecosystem services such as interception of land-derived nutrients before they can enter the coastal ocean. Therefore, it is important to understand how anthropogenic supplies of nitrate (NO₃^–) affect marsh sustainability and carbon storage.

In marsh sediment studies, the most common form of experimental nitrogen enrichment uses pelletized fertilizer composed of ammonium, urea, or other organic based fertilizers. Authors of a recent study published in Global Change Biology hypothesized that when nutrients were instead added in the form of nitrate (NO₃^–), the most common form of nitrogen enrichment in coastal waters, it would stimulate microbial decomposition of organic matter by serving as an electron acceptor for microbial respiration in anoxic salt marsh sediments. Furthermore, decomposition would vary with sediment depth, with decreased decomposition at greater depths, where less biologically available organic matter accumulated over time.

Figure 1: DIC production as a proxy for microbial respiration in salt marsh sediments from three distinct depth horizons (shallow 0-5cm, mid 10-15cm, deep 20-25cm) that span a range of biological availability. The addition of NO3- (green) stimulated DIC production relative to unenriched sediments, regardless of sediment depth. All samples were run under anoxic conditions (without the presence of oxygen), closely matching that of normal salt marsh sediments.

Surprisingly, NO₃^–addition stimulated decomposition of organic matter at all depths, with the highest decomposition rates in the surface sediments. This suggests that there is a pool of “NO₃^–-labile” organic matter in marsh sediments that microbes can decompose under high-NO₃^– conditions that would otherwise remain stable. As human activities continue to enrich our coastal waters with NO₃^–through agricultural runoff, septic systems, and other pathways, it could inadvertently decrease coastal wetlands’ carbon storage capacity, with negative consequences for both blue carbon offsets and marsh sustainability in the face of sea level rise.

Authors:
Jennifer Bowen (Northeastern University)
Ashley Bulseco (MBL/WHOI)
Anne Giblin (MBL)

The competing impacts of climate change and nutrient reductions on dissolved oxygen in Chesapeake Bay

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, June 12th, 2019

The Chesapeake Bay is a 200-mile-long estuary with both economic and ecological importance to the mid-Atlantic region. Runoff, pollution, and algae blooms resulting in hypoxia have been major issues over the past 50 years, and much work has been done to improve the water quality and health of the Bay. Dissolved oxygen concentrations will be altered in response to climate change, but whether this will counteract the benefits of reduced nutrient loading is an important scientific and management question. Specifically, what are the impacts of climate change on future Chesapeake Bay hypoxia and on progress towards meeting water quality standards associated with the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL)?

(Left) Latitudinal along-bay dissolved oxygen (DO) transects for the Base scenario (Base+noCC) and TMDL scenario (TMDL+noCC) without climate change; transects for the absolute and percent changes in DO due to climate change (TMDL+CC). (Right) Cumulative hypoxic volume for six ranges of DO concentrations for each of the study years and each of the scenarios (colored circles).

A recent study in Biogeosciences quantified the competing impacts of climate change and nutrient reductions on Chesapeake Bay hypoxia. The authors used a 3-D modeling system along with projected mid-21st century changes in temperature, freshwater flow, and sea level, assuming fully achieved goals of TMDL nutrient reductions. Of these three climate change factors, increased temperature most strongly impacts future hypoxia, primarily due to decreased solubility year-round and increased respiration and remineralization in the spring. Sea level rise is expected to exhibit a small positive impact resulting from increased estuarine circulation and reduced residence time. Increased river flow is anticipated to exert a small negative impact due to increased nutrient loading.

These results demonstrate that climate change may limit the effectiveness of future management actions aimed at reducing nutrient inputs to the Chesapeake Bay. However, the positive impacts of mandated nutrient reductions still outweigh the negative impacts of climate change. Given that climate impacts are expected to intensify with time and large uncertainties remain among different climate projections, it is critical to continue examining how the Bay may evolve in the future by assessing the sensitivity of oxygen concentrations to different climate change scenarios.

Authors:
Isaac D. Irby (VIMS, William & Mary)
Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs (VIMS, William & Mary)
Fei Da (VIMS, William & Mary)
Kyle E. Hinson (VIMS, William & Mary)

Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

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