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Archive for phytoplankton – Page 3

Unexpected patterns of carbon export in the Southern Ocean

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, July 7th, 2020

The Southern Ocean is a major player in driving global distributions of heat, carbon dioxide, and nutrients, making it key to ocean chemistry and the earth’s climate system. In the ocean, biological production and export of organic carbon are commonly linked to places with high nutrient availability. A recent paper, published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles, highlighting new observations from robotic profiling floats demonstrates that areas of high carbon export in the Southern Ocean are actually associated with very low concentrations of iron, an important micronutrient for supporting phytoplankton growth. This suggests a decoupling between the production and export of organic carbon in this region.

Figure caption: (A) Meridional pattern of Annual Net Community Production (ANCP) (equivalent to carbon export) (± standard deviation) in the Southern Ocean (blue line with circles and shaded area), carbon export estimates from previous satellite-based analyses (blue dashed line), and silicate to nitrate (Si:NO₃) ratio of the surface water (black continuous line). Grey dotted line shows a Si:NO₃ = 1 mol mol⁻¹, characteristic of nutrient-replete diatoms. (B) Meridional pattern of Southern Ocean nutrient concentrations, including dissolved iron (Fe) concentration (black line), nitrate (red line), and silicate (blue line). (C) Mean 2014–2015 annual zonally averaged air-sea flux of CO₂ computed using neural network interpolation method. STF = Subtropical Front, PF = Antarctic Polar Front, SIF = Seasonal Ice Front.

Using observations of nutrient and oxygen drawdown from a regional network of profiling Biogeochemical-Argo floats deployed as part of the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling project (SOCCOM), the authors calculated estimates of Southern Ocean carbon export. A meridional pattern in biological carbon export emerged, showing peak export near the Antarctic Polar Front (PF) associated with minima in surface iron concentrations and dissolved silicate to nitrate ratios. Previous studies have shown that under iron-limiting conditions, diatoms increase their uptake ratio of silicate with respect to other nutrients (e.g., nitrogen), resulting in silicification. Here, the authors hypothesize that iron limitation promotes silicification in Southern Ocean diatoms, as evidenced by the low silicate to nitrate ratio of surface waters around the Antarctic Polar Front. High diatom silicification increases ballasting of particulate organic carbon and hence overall carbon export in this region. The resulting meridional pattern of organic carbon export is similar to that of the air-sea flux of carbon dioxide in the Southern Ocean, underscoring the importance of the biological carbon pump in controlling the spatial pattern of oceanic carbon uptake in this region.

Authors:
Lionel A. Arteaga (Princeton University)
Markus Pahlow (Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, GEOMAR)
Seth M. Bushinsky (University of Hawaii)
Jorge L. Sarmiento (Princeton University)

Autonomous platforms yield new insights on North Atlantic bloom phenology

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, April 22nd, 2020

Phytoplankton produces organic carbon, which serves as a major energy source in marine food webs and plays an important role in the global carbon cycle. Studies of phytoplankton seasonal timing (phenology) have been a major focus in oceanography, especially in the subpolar North Atlantic region, where massive increases in phytoplankton biomass (blooms) occur during the winter-spring transition.

Figure 1. Panel a: Each line represents the trajectory of a profiling Argo float deployed during the North Atlantic Aerosols and Marine Ecosystems Study (NAAMES) expeditions (12 total); the initial float deployment location is denoted by a filled circle. The bar chart (inset right bottom) indicates float deployment durations. Panel b: Seasonal climatologies of C_phyto (green), µ (blue), l (red), and r (grey) from Argo floats for all 4 regions (D1-D4 as indicated on map in Panel a).

Many hypotheses based on data from shipboard discrete sampling or satellite remote sensing have been proposed to explain drivers of phytoplankton bloom formation and dynamics. However, discrete shipboard sampling limits both spatial and temporal coverage, and satellite approaches cannot provide direct information at depth. To address this gap in spatiotemporal coverage, a recent study in Frontiers in Marine Science, applied bio-optical measurements from 12 Argo profiling floats to study the year-round phytoplankton phenology in a north-south section of the western North Atlantic Ocean (40° N to 60° N). The authors calculated phytoplankton division rate (µ), loss rate (l), and carbon accumulation rate (r) using the Argo-based Chlorophyll-a (Chl) and phytoplankton carbon (C_phyto) estimates. Latitudinally varying phytoplankton dynamics were observed, with a higher (and later) C_phyto peak in the north, and stronger μ–r decoupling and increased proportion of winter to total annual production in the south (Figure 1). Seasonal phenology patterns arise from interactions between “bottom-up” (e.g., resources for growth) and “top-down” (e.g., grazing, mortality) factors that involve both biological and physical drivers. The Argo float data are consistent with the disturbance recovery hypothesis (DRH) over a full annual cycle. Float-based mixed layer phytoplankton phenology observations were comparable to satellite remote sensing observations. In a data-model comparison, outputs from an eddy-resolving ocean simulation only reproduced some of the observed phytoplankton phenology, indicating possible biases in the simulated physical forcing, turbulent dynamics, and biophysical interactions.

In addition to seasonal patterns in the mixed layer, float-based measurements provide information on the vertical distribution of physical and biogeochemical quantities and therefore are complementary to the satellite measurements. This powerful combination of observing assets enhances spatiotemporal coverage, thus enabling us to better observe, compare, model, and predict seasonal phytoplankton dynamics in the subpolar North Atlantic.

Authors:
Bo Yang (University of Virginia)
Emmanuel S. Boss (University of Maine)
Nils Haëntjens (University of Maine)
Matthew C. Long (National Center for Atmospheric Research)
Michael J. Behrenfeld (Oregon State University)
Rachel Eveleth (Oberlin College)
Scott C. Doney (University of Virginia)

Can phytoplankton help us determine ocean iron bioavailability?

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, March 11th, 2020

Iron (Fe) is a key element to sustaining life, but it is present at extremely low concentrations in seawater. This scarcity limits phytoplankton growth in large swaths of the global ocean, with implications for marine food webs and carbon cycling. The acquisition of Fe by phytoplankton is an important process that mediates the movement of carbon to the deep ocean and across trophic levels. It is a challenge to evaluate the ability of marine phytoplankton to obtain Fe from seawater since it is bound by a variety of poorly defined organic complexes.

Figure 1: Schematic representation of the reactions governing dissolved Fe (dFe) bioavailability to phytoplankton (a) Bioavailability of dFe in seawater collected from various basins and depth and probed with different iron-limited phytoplankton species under dim laboratory light and sunlight (b) (See paper for further details on samples and species)

A recent study in The ISME Journal proposes a new approach for evaluating seawater dissolved Fe (dFe) bioavailability based on its uptake rate constant by Fe-limited cultured phytoplankton. The authors collected samples from distinct regions across the global ocean, measured the properties of organic complexation, loaded these complexes with a radioactive Fe isotope, and then tracked the internalization rates from these forms to a diverse set of Fe-limited phytoplankton species. Regardless of origin, all of the phytoplankton acquired natural organic complexes at similar rates (accounting for cell surface area). This confirms that multiple Fe-limited phytoplankton species can be used to probe dFe bioavailability in seawater. Among water types, dFe bioavailability varied by ~4-fold and did not clearly correlate with Fe concentrations or any of the measured Fe speciation parameters. This new approach provides a novel way to determine Fe bioavailability in samples from across the oceans and enables modeling of in situ Fe uptake rates by phytoplankton based simply on measured Fe concentrations.

Authors:
Yeala Shaked (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
Kristen N. Buck (University of South Florida)
Travis Mellett (University of South Florida)
Maria. T. Maldonado (University of British Columbia)

Hurricane-driven surge of labile carbon into the deep North Atlantic Ocean

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, February 27th, 2020

Tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons) are the most extreme episodic weather event affecting subtropical and temperate oceans. Hurricanes generate intense surface cooling and vertical mixing in the upper ocean, resulting in nutrient upwelling into the photic zone and episodic phytoplankton blooms. However, their influence on the deep ocean is unknown.

Figure 1. (a) Particulate organic carbon (POC) flux and percentage of the total mass flux (yellow) (top panel); fluxes (middle panel) and POC-normalized concentrations (bottom panel) of diagnostic lipid biomarkers for phytoplankton-derived and labile material, zooplankton, bacteria, and other (see legend); (b) Lipid concentrations (left panel) and POC-normalized concentrations (right panel) of diagnostic lipid biomarkers for the same sources as in (a) (see legend) measured two weeks after Nicole’s passage (25-29 Oct. 2016). Shown for reference are total lipid concentration profiles in April 2015 (dark gray, typical post spring bloom conditions) and Nov 2015 (light gray, typical minimum production period).

In October 2016, Category 3 Hurricane Nicole passed over the Bermuda time-series site (Oceanic Flux Program (OFP) and Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series site (BATS)) in the oligotrophic NW Atlantic Ocean. In a recent study published in Geophysical Research Letters, authors synthesized multidisciplinary data from hydrographic and phytoplankton measurements and lipid composition of sinking and suspended particles collected from OFP and BATS, respectively, after Hurricane Nicole in 2016. After the hurricane passed, particulate fluxes of lipids diagnostic of fresh phytodetritus, zooplankton, and microbial biomass increased by 30-300% at 1500 m depth and 30-800% at 3200 m depth (Figure 1a). In addition, mesopelagic suspended particles were enriched in phytodetrital material, as well as zooplankton- and bacteria-sourced lipids (Figure 1b), indicating particle disaggregation and a deep-water ecosystem response.

These results suggest that carbon export and biogeochemical cycles may be impacted by climate-induced changes in hurricane frequency, intensity, and tracks, and, underscore the sensitivity of deep ocean ecosystems to climate perturbations.

Authors:
Rut Pedrosa-Pamies (Marine Biological Laboratory)
Maureen H. Conte (Bermuda Institute of Ocean Science and Marine Biological Laboratory)
JC Weber (Marine Biological Laboratory)
Rodney Johnson (Bermuda Institute of Ocean Science)

Diatoms commit iron piracy with stolen bacterial gene

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, February 4th, 2020

Since diatoms carry out much of the primary production in iron-limited marine environments, constraining the details of how these phytoplankton acquire the iron they need is paramount to our understanding of biogeochemical cycles of iron-depleted high-nutrient low-chlorophyll (HNLC) regions. The proteins involved in this process are largely unknown, but McQuaid et al. (2018) scientists described a carbonate-dependent uptake protein that enables diatoms to access inorganic iron dissolved in seawater. As increasing atmospheric CO₂ results in decreased seawater carbonate ion concentrations, this iron uptake strategy may have an uncertain future. In a recent study published in PNAS, authors used CRISPR technology to characterize a parallel uptake system that requires no carbonate and is therefore not impacted by ocean acidification.

This system targets an organically complexed form of iron (siderophores, molecules that bind and transport iron in microorganisms) that is only produced by co-occurring microbes. Two genes are required to convert siderophores from a potent toxicant to an essential nutrient. One of these (FBP1) is a receptor that was horizontally acquired from siderophore-producing bacteria. The other (FRE2) is a eukaryotic reductase that facilitates the dissociation of Fe-siderophore complexes.

Figure caption: (A) Growth curves of diatom cultures ( • = WT, ◇ = ΔFBP1, ☐ = ΔFRE2) in low iron media. (B) Growth in same media with siderophores added. (C) Diatoms under 1000x magnification, brightfield. (D) mCherry-FBP1. (E) Plastid autofluorescence. (F) YFP-FRE2. (G) Phylogenetic tree of FBP1 and related homologs.

Are diatoms really stealing siderophores from hapless bacteria? The true nature of this interaction is unknown and may at times be mutualistic. For example, when iron availability limits the carbon supply to a microbial community, heterotrophic bacteria may benefit from using siderophores to divert iron to diatom companions. Further work is needed to understand the true ecological basis for this interaction, but these results suggest that as long as diatoms and bacteria co-occur, iron limitation in marine ecosystems will not be exacerbated by ocean acidification.

Authors:
Tyler Coale (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, J.Craig Venter Institute)
Mark Moosburner (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, J.Craig Venter Institute)
Aleš Horák (Biology Centre CAS, Institute of Parasitology, University of South Bohemia)
Miroslav Oborník (Biology Centre CAS, Institute of Parasitology, University of South Bohemia)
Katherine Barbeau (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
Andrew Allen (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, J.Craig Venter Institute)

Also see joint post on the GEOTRACES website

The ocean’s smallest phytoplankton may be bigger than we thought

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, December 17th, 2019

Flow cytometry can sort hundreds of thousands of phytoplankton cells in minutes, a tool that has been exploited for over thirty years in marine science. However, skilled analysts are still needed for manual interpretation of these cells into different types and then further into size distributions and optical properties.

In a recent study published in Applied Optics, the authors developed and implemented an automated scheme on the large Atlantic Meridional Transect flow cytometric database, which contains around 10⁴ samples and 10⁹ cells (the entire AMT flowcytometric dataset which spans a decade of transects (AMT18 – AMT27). This unique, well-calibrated dataset spans 100° of latitude between the UK and the Falklands, with multiple samples between 0-200m. The results clearly show that Prochlorococcus, very small marine cyanobacteria, are consistently larger than previously thought (>0.65 µm), and their size distribution reveals a distinctive double peak (0.75 µm and 1.75 µm) that varies strongly with depth. This is coupled with changes in Prochlorococcus optical properties, a term we have coined “opto-types.” By contrast, Synechococcus are typically 1.5 µm in diameter and more homogeneously dispersed.

Figure 1: North to South transect (bottom left) of the Atlantic Ocean showing the variability in the abundance (top left), size (top right) and refractive index (bottom right) of Prochlorococcus

This work has uncovered new information regarding the size distribution of the ocean’s smallest phytoplankton, which has implications for how energy is transferred between different biological organisms.

Authors:
Tim Smyth (Plymouth Marine Laboratory)
Glen Tarran (Plymouth Marine Laboratory)
Shubha Sathyendranath (Plymouth Marine Laboratory)

A role for tropical nitrogen fixers in glacial CO2 drawdown

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, December 4th, 2019

Iron fertilization of marine phytoplankton by Aeolian dust is a well-established mechanism for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) drawdown by the ocean. When atmospheric CO₂ decreased by 90-100 ppm during previous ice ages, fertilization of iron-limited phytoplankton in the high latitudes was thought to have contributed up to ¹/₃ (30 ppm) of the total CO₂ drawdown. Unfortunately, recent modeling studies suggest that substantially less CO₂ (only 2-10 ppm) is sequestered by the ocean in response to high latitude fertilization.

The limited capacity for high latitude CO₂sequestration in response to iron enrichment motivated the authors of a new study published in Nature Communications to address how lower latitude phytoplankton could contribute to CO₂ drawdown. The authors used an ocean model to show that in response to Aeolian iron fertilization, dinitrogen (N₂) fixers, specialized phytoplankton that introduce bioavailable nitrogen to tropical surface waters, drive the sequestration of an additional 7-16 ppm of CO₂ by the ocean.

Figure 1: Scenarios of Fe supply to the tropical Pacific. In the low iron scenario, analogous to the modern climate, N₂ fixation (yellow zone and dots) is concentrated in the Northwest and Southwest subtropical Pacific where aeolian dust deposition is greatest. Non-limiting PO₄ concentrations (green zone and dots) exist within the tropics and spread laterally from the area of upwelling near the Americas and at the equator (blue zone). In the high Fe scenario, analogous to the glacial climate, N₂ fixation couples to the upwelling zones in the east Pacific, enabling strong utilisation of PO₄, the vertical expansion of suboxic zones (grey bubbles) and a deeper injection of carbon-enriched organic matter (downward squiggly arrows).

These results provide evidence of a tropical ocean CO₂ sequestration pathway, the mere existence of which is hotly debated. Importantly, the study describes an additional mechanism of CO₂ drawdown that is complementary to the high latitude mechanism. When combined, their contributions elevate iron-driven CO₂ drawdown towards the expected 30 ppm, making iron fertilization a driver of a stronger biological pump on a global scale.

Authors:
Pearse Buchanan (University of Liverpool, University of Tasmania, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, ARC Centre of Excellence in Climate System Science)
Zanna Chase (University of Tasmania)
Richard Matear (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, ARC Centre of Excellence in Climate Extremes)
Steven Phipps (University of Tasmania)
Nathaniel Bindoff (University of Tasmania, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, ARC Centre of Excellence in Climate Extremes, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre)

A new tidal non-photochemical quenching model reveals obscured variability in coastal chlorophyll fluorescence

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, October 15th, 2019

Although chlorophyll fluorescence is widely-used as a proxy for chlorophyll concentration, sunlight exposure makes fluorescence measurements inaccurate through a process called non-photochemical quenching, limiting its proxy accuracy during daylight hours. In the open ocean, where time and space scales are large relative to variability in phytoplankton concentration, daytime chlorophyll fluorescence—necessary for satellite algorithm validation and for understanding diurnal variability in phytoplankton abundance—can be estimated by averaging across successive nighttime, unquenched values. In coastal waters, where semidiurnal tidal advection drives small scale patchiness and short temporal variability, successive nighttime observations do not accurately represent the intervening daytime. Thus, it is necessary to apply a non-photochemical quenching correction that accounts for the additional effect of tidal advection.

In a recent study in L&O Methods, authors developed a model that uses measurements of tidal velocity to correct daytime chlorophyll fluorescence for non-photochemical quenching and tidal advection. The model identifies high tide and low tide endmember populations of phytoplankton from tidal velocity, and estimates daytime chlorophyll fluorescence as a conservative interpolation between endmember fluorescence at those tidal maxima and minima (Figure 1). Rather than removing nearly 12 hours’ worth of hourly chlorophyll fluorescence observations (i.e., all of the daytime observations) as was previously necessary, this model recovers them. The model output performs more accurately as a proxy for chlorophyll concentration than raw daytime chlorophyll fluorescence measurements by a factor of two, and enables tracking of phytoplankton populations with chlorophyll fluorescence in a Lagrangian sense from Eulerian measurements. Finally, because the model assumes conservation, periods of non-conservative variability are revealed by comparison between model and measurements, helping to elucidate controls on variability in phytoplankton abundance in coastal waters.

Figure 1: Model (light blue line) is a tidal interpolation between high tide (blue points) and low tide (red points) phytoplankton endmembers. The model represents nighttime, unquenched chlorophyll fluorescence measurements well (black points), while daytime, quenched measurements are visibly reduced (gray points).

This result is a critical achievement, as it enables the use of daytime chlorophyll fluorescence, which increases the temporal resolution of coastal chlorophyll fluorescence measurements, and also provides a mechanism for satellite validation of the ocean color chlorophyll data product in coastal waters. The model’s capacity to accurately simulate the pervasive effect of non-photochemical quenching makes it a vital tool for any researcher or coastal water manager measuring chlorophyll fluorescence. This model will help to provide new insights on the movement of and controls on phytoplankton populations across the land-ocean continuum.

Authors:
Luke Carberry (University of California, Santa Barbara)
Collin Roesler (Bowdoin College)
Susan Drapeau (Bowdoin College)

A new roadmap of climate change driven ocean changes

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, October 2nd, 2019

When will we see significant changes in the ocean due to climate change? A new study in Nature Climate Change confirms that outcomes tied directly to the escalation of atmospheric carbon dioxide have already emerged in the existing 30-year observational record. These include sea surface warming, acidification, and increases in the rate at which the ocean removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

In contrast, processes tied indirectly to the ramp-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide through the gradual modification of climate and ocean circulation will take longer, from three decades to more than a century. These include changes in upper-ocean mixing, nutrient supply, and the cycling of carbon through marine plants and animals.

The researchers performed model simulations of potential future climate states that could result from a combination of human-made climate change and random chance (figure 1). These experiments were performed with an Earth System Model, a climate model that has an interactive carbon cycle such that changes in the climate and carbon cycle can be considered in tandem.

Figure 1: Percentage of ocean with emergent anthropogenic trends in ocean biogeochemical and physical variables. A time series of the percentage of the global ocean area with locally emergent anthropogenic trends illustrates the disparity of emergence timescales for anthropogenic changes in the ocean carbon cycle. Emergence is defined as the point in time when the LE’s signal-to-noise ratio for a linear trend referenced to the year 1990 first exceeds a magnitude of two, which represents a 95% confidence in the identification of an anthropogenic trend in the LE Ω applies to the saturation state of both the aragonite and calcite forms of calcium carbonate (CaCO₃), for which the emergence times are approximately equivalent. The CaCO₃ and soft-tissue pumps were calculated as the export flux at 100 m depth of CaCO₃ and particulate organic carbon, respectively. The heat content was calculated as an integral over 0–700 m, whereas the oxygen (O₂) inventories consider the integral 200–600 m, and chlorophyll inventories were considered over 0–500 m. NPP represents an integral over 0–100 m. All the other variables represent sea surface properties.

The finding of a 30- to 100-year delay in the emergence of effects suggests that ocean observation programs should be maintained for many decades into the future to effectively monitor the changes occurring in the ocean. The study also indicates that the detectability of some changes in the ocean would benefit from improvements to the current observational sampling strategy. These include looking deeper into the ocean for changes in phytoplankton and capturing changes in both summer and winter ocean-atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide rather than just the annual mean.

Figure 2. Venn Diagram schematic of sources of uncertainty in simulation (using Earth-System Modeling approach) and observation of changes in the Earth system. For emergence, detection or attribution of an observed or simulated signal to occur, the signal must overcome the sources of uncertainty in their respective brackets.

Many types of observational efforts, including time-series or permanent locations of continuous measurement, as well as regional sampling programs and global remote sensing platforms are critical for understanding our changing planet and improving our capacity to detect change.

Authors:
Sarah Schlunegger (Princeton University)
Keith B. Rodgers (Institute for Basic Science and Busan National University, South Korea)
Jorge L. Sarmiento (Princeton University)
Thomas L. Frölicher (University of Bern)
John P. Dunne (NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Masao Ishii (Japan Meteorological Agency)
Richard Slater (Princeton University)

Industrial era climate forcing drives multi-century decline in North Atlantic productivity

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, October 2nd, 2019

Phytoplankton respond directly to climate forcing, and due to their central role in global oxygen production and atmospheric carbon sequestration, they are critical components of the Earth’s climate system. There are however few observations detailing past variability in marine primary productivity, particularly over multi-decadal to centennial timescales. This limits our understanding of the long-term impact of climatic forcing on both past and future marine productivity.

Multi-century decline of subarctic Atlantic productivity. From top: standardized (z-score units relative to ad 1958-2016) indices of Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR)-based diatom, dinoflagellate and coccolithophore relative-abundances; North Atlantic [chlorophyll-α] reconstruction from Boyce et al. (2010, Nature); ice core-based [MSA] PC1 productivity index. The “Industrial Onset” range shows the estimated initiation of declining subarctic Atlantic productivity; reconstructed (Rahmstorf et al., 2015, Nat. Clim. Change) and observed sea-surface temperature-based Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (i.e., AMOC) index, alongside 5-year averaged subarctic Atlantic freshwater storage anomalies (relative to A.D. 1955) from Curry and Mauritzen (2005; Science).

Authors of a new study published in Nature used a high-resolution signal of marine biogenic aerosol emissions (methanesulfonic acid, or “MSA”) preserved within twelve Greenland ice cores to reconstruct a ~250-year record of marine productivity variations across the subarctic Atlantic basin, one of the most biologically productive and climatically sensitive regions on Earth. These results provide the most continuous proxy-based reconstruction of basin-scale productivity to date in this region, illuminating the following major findings: (1) subarctic Atlantic marine productivity has declined over the industrial era by as much as 10 ± 7%; (2) the early 19th century onset of declining productivity coincides with the regional onset of industrial-era surface warming, and also strongly covaries with regional sea surface temperatures and basin-scale gyre circulation strength; (3) there is strong decadal- to centennial-scale coherence between northern Atlantic productivity variability and declining Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength, as predicted by prior model-based studies.

Future atmospheric warming is predicted to contribute to accelerating Greenland Ice Sheet runoff, ocean-surface freshening, and AMOC slowdown, suggesting the potential for continued declines in productivity across this dynamic and climatically important region. Such declines will, in turn, have important implications for future maritime economies, global food security, and drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Authors:
Matthew Osman (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Sarah Das (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Luke Trusel (Rowan University)
Matthew Evans (Wheaton College)
Hubertus Fischer (University of Bern)
Mackenzie Griemann (University of California, Irvine)
Sepp Kipfstuhl (Alfred-Wegener-Institute)
Joseph McConnell (Desert Research Institute)
Eric Saltzman (University of California, Irvine)

Figure references:
Boyce, D. G., Lewis, M. R. & Worm, B. (2010) Global phytoplankton decline over the past century. Nature 466, 591–596.

Curry, R. & Mauritzen, C. (2005) Dilution of the northern North Atlantic Ocean in recent decades. Science 308, 1772–1774.

Rahmstorf, S. et al. (2015) Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 475–480.

Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

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