mmaheigan :: Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry

Studying marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles in the face of environmental change

Author Archive for mmaheigan – Page 31

OCB supports early career participation in 3rd International Ocean Colour Science Meeting

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, June 6th, 2017

OCB-sponsored participants of 3rd International Ocean Color Meeting in May 2017.

Christiana Ade is a first-year PhD student at North Carolina State University in the Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department. She researches wetlands and coastal environments using satellite remote sensing and field measurements. Her research includes water quality mapping, establishing new environmental indicators, and determining satellite resolution requirements for adequately monitoring wetlands.

“As a master’s student, I focused on wetland vegetation, but for my PhD I am shifting toward water quality monitoring. The 2017 IOCS meeting occurred at a critical time in my career as I begin this research transition. IOCS allowed me to meet several prominent researchers and advanced students that I foresee myself collaborating with in the future, thus furthering my long-term objective of becoming a researcher in a national lab or university professor. I presented a poster at IOCS on some preliminary research and received extremely useful feedback, which I am already implementing. Although the conference was great for networking, it was most beneficial for expanding my understanding of current limitations and future opportunities in remote sensing of water. In particular, the breakout sessions provided me with several insights on hot-button topics and gave me confidence that the ocean color community will aid researchers invested in coastal applications to determine what sensor resolutions are needed to monitor these environments. Meetings like this ensure that the necessary technology gets built and launched. I would like to thank all the organizers, speakers, and the OCB for their positive impact on my research career.”

Henry Houskeeper is a third year Ocean Sciences PhD student working with Raphael Kudela at the University of California, Santa Cruz. Henry investigates the optical properties of dinoflagellate red tides. His broader interests include remote sensing of the coastal ocean, coastal upwelling ecosystem dynamics, and phytoplankton ecology.

“Attending the IOCS meeting was an excellent opportunity for me to receive thoughtful feedback on my research. IOCS connected me with helpful members of the ocean color community and exposed me to a diverse assemblage of ocean color research projects. The support from OCB made this valuable experience possible for me.”

Suhey Ortiz Rosa is a PhD student conducting research with Dr. Roy Armstrong in Bio-Optical Oceanography at the Department of Marine Sciences at the University of Puerto Rico- Mayagüez (UPRM). In 2005, she completed a B.S. in Coastal Marine Biology at the University of Puerto Rico- Humacao, and in 2010, a MS in Chemical Oceanography at UPRM. Suhey’s work focuses on the biogeochemistry of coastal waters and coral reefs, validating algorithms from satellite imagery of complex optical waters, remote sensing, and GIS. Previously, she worked on CDOM characterization with PARAFAC, mapping marine species distribution with the GAP-Analysis Project of Puerto Rico and later with watershed analysis of sedimentation processes on coral reefs.

“The International Ocean Color Science Meeting was a unique experience. Networking with the international community to address common issues on satellite imagery analysis benefits my research tremendously. I am now able to communicate with leading experts that work with the latest processes, allowing me to conduct more accurate and efficient research. The workshop on Copernicus Data was also very helpful, providing hands-on personalized experience. The cultural diversity and different research projects presented made this conference an advantage for me as an early career ocean color researcher. The information I obtained expands my options for new opportunities and ideas in research. It is fundamental for young scientists to remain up to date with the innovations in their current research topic. Thanks to the OCB program for making this experience possible!”

Sara Rivero-Calle is a postdoctoral researcher at the Levine Lab in the University of Southern California interested in projects that involve large datasets, combining remote sensing and in situ data to answer large-scale ecological questions. She first learned about satellite remote sensing during her MS program at the University of Puerto Rico working on mesophotic reef sponge ecology using Autonomous Underwater Vehicles. She earned a PhD from Johns Hopkins University, where she used the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey to study long-term changes in North Atlantic phytoplankton communities. Currently, Sara is conducting postdoctoral research on fine-scale variability and patchiness, combining remote sensing, float, and HPLC data with numerical models.

“Attending IOCS was a fantastic experience. I was invited to give a talk on the global distribution of Trichodesmium for the special session on Trichodesmium. This was a great opportunity, not only for the exposure, but also because I am now collaborating with the organizers on writing a white paper with recommendations for remote sensing of Trichodesmium from space. This is perfect timing, given the new sensors with higher spatial and spectral resolution currently being developed and forthcoming satellite missions. I also noticed a clear interest in the remote sensing community to work closely with modelers and I think I can help bridge the two communities. I will be collaborating with another working group focused on carbon cycling. One of the things I liked most was the IOCS meeting structure—splitting us up into working groups, identifying current challenges and brainstorming together on how to deal with them and move forward. This meeting is not focused on presenting work but on setting new goals and working towards them. I also liked that the IOCS meeting facilitates direct communication with program managers and representatives from all space agencies and how the agencies came to the meeting to hear what the scientific community needs to advance satellite remote sensing. In summary, the IOCS meeting is the perfect venue for international scientific networking and I am so grateful to OCB for supporting us at an early stage of our career, thanks for believing in us!”

Sarah Schlunegger is a PhD Student in the Program of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, advised by Prof. Jorge Sarmiento. Sarah uses Earth System Models to predict the timing, sequence and inter-dependence of emerging anthropogenic signals in the ocean, with a focus on the ocean’s acquisition of anthropogenic carbon and heat. The ocean provides a climate service by absorbing the atmosphere’s excess carbon and heat but at a cost, namely acidification and warming, which deteriorate marine habitats. Sarah’s primary research goal is to identify when and where changes in these heat/carbon sinks and their resulting impacts will be detectable in the ocean.

“As a climate modeler, I have limited daily interactions with observationalists, despite my using satellite observations as a component of my own research. The 2017 International Ocean Colour Science Meeting was the perfect platform to cure this condition! Hearing talks and discussion from the lead scientist and engineers who have spent decades developing and perfecting satellite observation platforms has expanded my understanding and appreciation for the work behind the end-product. I enjoyed listening to the expert panels parse through upcoming innovations to address atmospheric correction, a major challenge faced by the community. The fellow conference attendees were friendly and encouraging, and of course, Lisbon is a magical city!”

Do rivers supply nutrients to the open ocean?

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, May 24th, 2017

Rivers carry large amounts of nutrients (e.g., nitrogen and phosphorus) to the sea, but we do not know how much of that riverine nutrient supply escapes biological and chemical processing in shallow coastal waters to reach the open ocean. Most global ocean biogeochemical models, which are typically unable to resolve coastal processes, assume that either all or none of the riverine nutrients entering coastal waters actually contribute to open ocean processes.

While we know a good deal about the dynamics of individual rivers entering the coastal ocean, studies to date have been limited to a few major river systems, mainly in in developed countries. Globally, there are over 6,000 rivers entering the coastal ocean. In a recent study, Sharples et al (2017) devised a simple approach to obtain a global-scale estimate of riverine nutrient inputs based on the knowledge that low-salinity waters entering the coastal ocean tend to form buoyant plumes that turn under the influence of Earth’s daily rotation to flow along the coastline. Using published data on such flows and incorporating the effect of Earth’s rotation, they obtained estimates of typical cross-shore plume width and compared them to the local width of the continental shelf. This was used to calculate the residence time of riverine nutrients on the shelf, which is the key to estimating how much of a given nutrient is consumed in shelf waters vs. how much is exported to the open ocean.

Global distribution of the amount of riverine dissolved inorganic nitrogen that escapes the continental shelf to reach the open ocean.

The results indicate that, on a global scale, 75% (80%) of the nitrogen (phosphorus) supplied by rivers reaches the open ocean, whereas 25% (20%) of the nitrogen (phosphorus) is consumed on the shelf (e.g., fueling coastal productivity). Limited knowledge of nutrient cycling and consumption in shelf waters represents the primary source of uncertainty in this study. However, well-defined global patterns related to human land use (e.g., agricultural fertilizer use in developed nations) emerged from this analysis, underscoring the need to understand how land-use changes and other human activities will alter nutrient delivery to the coastal ocean in the future.

Authors:
Jonathan Sharples (School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, UK)
Jack Middelburg (Department of Earth Sciences, Utrecht University, Netherlands)
Katja Fennel (Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Canada)
Tim Jickells (School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, UK)

A Training Course on Marine Radioactivity August 13, 2017

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, May 15th, 2017

A Training Course on Marine Radioactivity in association with Goldschmidt, August 13, 2017. The event, organized by SCOR 146 WG, will include: An introduction to Radionuclides, Natural, Anthropogenic, and Cosmogenic Radioisotopes and their General Applications in the Marine environment, and Radioecology. Specific lectures will delve more deeply into specific applications and include topics such as applications of radionuclides to sediment age dating, submarine groundwater discharge, and biological mediated carbon export.

Lecturers:

Dr. Ken Buesseler, Center for Marine and Environmental Radioactivity, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, USA
Dr. Minhan Dai, State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University, China
Dr. Claudia Benitez‐Nelson, University of South Carolina, USA
Dr. Sabine Charmasson, ISRN, Laboratory for Research on Transfers in the Environment, France
Dr. Pere Masque, Edith Cowan University (Australia) and Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain)
Dr. Willard S. Moore, University of South Carolina, USA
Dr. John Smith, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada

Detailed agenda and more information

The course is open to 25 students and early career scientists interested in radiochemisty‐related fields.

Please use the Goldschmidt registration form to register for this workshop and for the Goldschmidt meeting. The workshop registration fee (40 Euros) will be supported in large part by the Center for Marine and Environmental Radioactivity at WHOI.

Scientists reveal major drivers of aragonite saturation state in the Gulf of Maine, a region vulnerable to acidification

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, May 11th, 2017

The Gulf of Maine (GoME) is a shelf region that is especially vulnerable to ocean acidification (OA). GoME’s shelf waters display the lowest mean pH, aragonite saturation state (Ω-Ar), and buffering capacity of the entire U.S. East Coast. These conditions are a product of many unique characteristics and processes occurring in the GoME, including relatively low water temperatures that result in higher CO₂ solubility; inputs of fresher, low-alkalinity water that is traceable to the rivers discharging into the Labrador Sea to the north, as well as local inputs of low-pH river water; and its semi-enclosed nature (long residence time >1 year), which enables the accumulation of respiratory products, i.e. CO₂.

A recent study by Wang et al. (2017) is the first to assess the major oceanic processes controlling seasonal variability of aragonite saturation state and its linkages with pteropod abundance in the GoME. The results indicate that surface production was tightly coupled with remineralization in the benthic nepheloid layer during highly productive seasons, resulting in occasional aragonite undersaturation. Mean water column Ω-Ar and abundance of large thecosomatous pteropods show some correlation, although discrete cohort reproductive success likely also influences their abundance. Photosynthesis-respiration is the primary driving force controlling Ω-Ar variability over the seasonal cycle. However, calcium carbonate (CaCO₃) dissolution appears to occur at depth in fall and winter months when bottom water Ω-Ar is generally low but slightly above 1. This is accompanied by a decrease in pteropod abundance that is consistent with previous CaCO₃ flux trap measurements.

Figure. Changes of aragonite saturation states (ΔΩ) between three consecutive cruises from April – July 2015 as a function of changes in salinity-normalized DIC (ΔenDIC, including correction of freshwater inputs) (a) and changes in salinity-normalized TA (ΔenTA, including correction of freshwater inputs) (b). The data points circled in (b) represent potential alkalinity sources from CaCO3 dissolution and/or anaerobic respiration. Solid lines are theoretical lines of ΔΩ vs. ΔenDIC and ΔΩ vs. ΔenTA expected if only photosynthesis and respiration/remineralization occur. Dashed lines are theoretical lines if only calcification and dissolution of CaCO3 occur.

Under the current rate of OA, the mean Ω-Ar of the subsurface and bottom waters of the GoME will approach undersaturation (Ω-Ar < 1) in 30-40 years. As photosynthesis and respiration are the major driving mechanisms of Ω-Ar variability in the water column, any biological regime changes may significantly impact carbonate chemistry and the GoME ecosystem, including the CaCO₃ shell-building capacity of organisms that are critical to the GoME food web.

Author:

Zhaohui Aleck Wang (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

Biophysical drivers of vigorous carbon cycling near the Kuroshio Extension

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, April 27th, 2017

The Kuroshio Current and its Extension jet in the western North Pacific Ocean form a dynamic western boundary current (WBC) region characterized by large air-sea exchanges of heat and carbon dioxide gas (CO₂). The jet is known to oscillate between stable and meandering states on multi-year timescales that alter the eddy field and depth of winter mixing in the southern recirculation gyre. These dynamic state changes have been shown to imprint biogeochemical signatures onto regional mode waters that can be distributed widely throughout the North Pacific and remain out of contact with the atmosphere for decades.

Figure. ~7 years of (a) AVISO daily sea surface height (SSH) anomalies and (b) upper-ocean temperature from the NOAA Kuroshio Extension Observatory (KEO) surface mooring. Black and gray lines in b show the mixed layer depth (MLD) and 17C contour, respectively. Spring bloom periods are indicated in blue in a. The semi-regular upwelling of cold water and corresponding depression of SSH is caused by cold-core eddies that pass the KEO mooring. Winter ventilation depths increase by ~100 m after 2010 when the extension jet entered a stable phase.

To better characterize carbon cycling in this region, ~7 years of daily-averaged autonomous CO₂ observations from NOAA’s Kuroshio Extension Observatory (KEO) surface mooring were used to close the mixed layer carbon budget. High rates of net community production (NCP; >100 mmol C m^-2 d^-1) were observed during the spring bloom period, and a mean annual NCP of 7±3 mol C m^-2 yr^-1 was determined. Biological processes near KEO largely balance the input of carbon that occurs annually through winter mixing; however, physical processes that deviate from climatology were not resolved in this study. Therefore, it remains unclear how transient features such as eddies influence biological carbon production and export through altered nutrient supply and active vertical transport of organic material. Further work is required to determine how biophysical interactions during mesoscale and submesoscale disturbances contribute to local carbon cycle processes and variability in regional mode water carbon inventories.

Ocean Carbon Hot Spots, an upcoming workshop focused on understanding biophysical drivers of carbon uptake in WBC regions, will be held September 25-26, 2017 at the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI) in Moss Landing, California. The primary objective of the workshop is to develop a community of observationalists and modelers working on the topic, and to identify critical observational needs that would improve model parameterizations. Ocean Carbon Hot Spots will be co-sponsored by US CLIVAR, US OCB, MBARI, and OMIX.

Written by Andrea J. Fassbender, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute

Mixed-layer carbon cycling at the Kuroshio Extension Observatory (Global Biogeochemical Cycles)

Authors:
Andrea J. Fassbender (Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute)
Christopher L. Sabine (NOAA Paciﬁc Marine Environmental Laboratory)
Meghan F. Cronin (NOAA Paciﬁc Marine Environmental Laboratory)
Adrienne J. Sutton (Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington)

Satellite Laser Lights Up Polar Research

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, April 13th, 2017

What controls annual cycles and interannual changes in polar phytoplankton biomass? Answers to this question are now emerging from a satellite light detection and ranging (lidar) sensor, which can observe the polar oceans throughout the extensive periods when measurements from traditional passive ocean color sensors are impossible. The new study uses active lidar measurements from the CALIOP satellite sensor to construct complete decade-long record of phytoplankton biomass in the northern and southern polar regions. Results of the study show that annual cycles in biomass are driven by rates of acceleration and deceleration in phytoplankton division, with bloom termination coinciding with maximum division rates irrespective of whether nutrients are exhausted. The study further shows that interannual differences in bloom strength can be quantitatively related to the difference between the winter minimum to summer maximum in division rates. Finally, the analysis indicated that ecological processes had a greater impact than ice cover changes on integrated polar zone phytoplankton biomass in the north, whereas ice cover changes were the dominant driver in the south polar zone. Despite being designed for atmospheric research, CALIOP has provided the first demonstration that active satellite lidar measurements can yield important new insights on plankton ecology in the climate sensitive polar regions. This proof-of-concept creates a foundation for a future ocean-optimized sensor with water-column profiling capabilities that would launch a new lidar era in satellite oceanography.

Authors:

Michael J. Behrenfeld (Oregon State Univ.)
Yongxiang Hu (NASA Langley Research Center)
Robert T. O’Malley (Oregon State Univ.)
Emmanuel S. Boss (Univ. Maine)
Chris A. Hostetler (NASA Langley Research Center)
David A. Siegel (Univ. California Santa Barbara)
Jorge Sarmiento (Princeton Univ.)
Jennifer Schulien (Oregon State Univ.)
Johnathan W. Hair (NASA Langley Research Center)
Xiaomei Lu (NASA Langley Research Center)
Sharon Rodier (NASA Langley Research Center)
Amy Jo Scarino (NASA Langley Research Center)

International team of researchers reports ocean acidification is spreading rapidly in the western Arctic Ocean

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, March 30th, 2017

The Arctic Ocean is particularly sensitive to climate change and ocean acidification such that aragonite saturation state is expected to become undersaturated (Ω_arag <1) there sooner than in other oceans. However, the extent and expansion rate of ocean acidification (OA) in this region are still unknown.

In the March 2017 issue of Nature Climate Change, Qi et al. show that, between 1994 and 2010, low Ω_arag waters have expanded northwards at least 5º, to 85ºN, and deepened from 100 m to 250 m depth. Data from multiple trans-western Arctic Ocean cruises show that Ω_arag<1 water has increased in the upper 250 m from 5 to 31% of the total area north of 70ºN. Tracer data and model simulations suggest that increased transport of Pacific Winter Water (which is already acidified due to both natural and anthropogenic sources), driven by sea-ice retreat and the circulation changes, are primarily responsible for the expansion, while local carbon recycling and anthropogenic CO₂ uptake have also contributed. These results indicate more rapid acidification is occurring in the Arctic Ocean, two to four times faster than the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, with the western Arctic Ocean the first open-ocean region with large-scale expansion of “acidified” water directly observed in the upper water column.

The rapid spread of ocean acidification in the western Arctic has implications for marine life, particularly clams, mussels and pteropods that may have difficulty building or maintaining their shells in increasingly acidified waters. The pteropods are part of the Arctic food web and important to the diet of salmon and herring. Their decline could affect the larger marine ecosystem.

Authors:
Richard A. Feely (NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)
Leif G. Anderson (Univ. of Gothenburg)
Heng Sun (SOA Third Institute of Oceanography)
Jianfang Chen (SOA Second Institute of Oceanography
Min Chen (Univ. of Delaware)
Liyang Zhan (SOA Third Institute of Oceanography)
Yuanhui Zhang (SOA Third Institute of Oceanography)
Wei-Jun Cai (Univ. of Delaware, Univ. of Georgia)

Reconciling fisheries catch and ocean productivity in a changing climate

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, March 16th, 2017

Phytoplankton provide the energy that fuels marine food webs, yet differences in fisheries catch across global ecosystems far exceed accompanying differences in phytoplankton production. Nearly 50 years ago, John Ryther hypothesized that this contrast must arise from synergistic interactions between phytoplankton production and food webs. New perspectives on global fish catch, fishing effort, and a prototype high-resolution global earth system model allowed us to revisit Ryther’s supposition and explore its implications under climate change. After accounting for a small number of lightly fished ecosystems, we find that stark differences in regional catch can be explained with an energetically constrained model that a) resolves large inter-regional differences in the benthic and pelagic energy pathways connecting phytoplankton and fish; b) reduces trophic transfer efficiencies in warm, tropical ecosystems; and, less critically, c) associates elevated trophic transfer efficiencies with benthic systems. The same food web processes that accentuate spatial differences in phytoplankton production in the contemporary ocean also accentuated temporal trends under climate change, with projected fish catch changes in some areas exceeding 50% (Figure 1). Our results, recently published in PNAS, demonstrate the importance of marine resource management strategies that are robust to potentially significant changes in fisheries productivity baselines. These results also provide impetus for efforts to improve constraints on regional ocean productivity projections that often disagree in present earth system models.

Figure 1: Projected percent changes in net phytoplankton production (left) and fisheries catch (right) between 2050-2100 and 1950-2000 under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5) in GFDL’s ESM2M-COBALT Earth System Model. Contours are shown for +/- 50%.

Authors: Charles A. Stock^a, Jasmin G. John^a, Ryan R. Rykaczewski^b,c, Rebecca G. Asch^d, William W.L. Cheung^e, John P. Dunne^a, Kevin D. Friedland^f, Vicky W.Y. Lam^e, Jorge L. Sarmiento^d, and Reg A. Watson^g

^aGeophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
^bSchool of the Earth, Ocean, and Environment, University of South Carolina
^cDepartment of Biological Sciences, University of South Carolina
^dAtmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University
^eNippon Foundation-Nereus Program, Institute of Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia
^fNational Marine Fisheries Service, Narragansett, RI
^gInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Australia

Oceanic fronts enhance carbon transport to the ocean’s interior through both subduction and amplified sinking

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, March 1st, 2017

Mesoscale fronts are regions with potentially enhanced nutrient fluxes, phytoplankton production and biomass, and aggregation of mesozooplankton and higher trophic levels. However, the role of these features in transporting organic carbon to depth and hence sequestering CO₂ from the atmosphere has not previously been determined. Working with the California Current Ecosystem Long Term Ecological Research (CCE LTER) program, we determined that the flux of sinking particles at a stable front off the coast of California was twice as high as similar fluxes on either side of the front, or in typical non-frontal waters of the CCE in a recent study by Stukel et al. (2017) published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

This increased export flux was tied to enhanced silica-ballasting by Fe-stressed diatoms and to an abundance of mesozooplankton grazers. Furthermore, downward transport of particulate organic carbon by subduction at the front led to additional carbon export that was similar in magnitude to sinking flux, suggesting that these fronts (which are a common feature in productive eastern boundary upwelling systems) are an important conduit for carbon sequestration. These enhanced carbon export mechanisms at episodic and mesoscale features need to be included in future biogeochemical forecast models to understand how a changing climate will affect marine CO₂ uptake.

Authors

Michael R. Stukel (Florida State University)
Lihini I. Aluwihare, Katherine A. Barbeau, Ralf Goericke, Arthur J. Miller, Mark D. Ohman, Angel Ruacho, Brandon M. Stephens, Michael R. Landry (University of California, San Diego)
Hajoon Song (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Alexander M. Chekalyuk (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory)

A framework for ENSO predictability of marine ecosystem drivers along the US West Coast

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, February 16th, 2017

The US West Coast eastern boundary upwelling system supports one of the most productive marine ecosystems in the world and is a primary source of ecosystem services for the US (e.g., fishing, shipping, and recreation). Long-term historical observations of physical and biological variables in this region have been collected since the 1950s (e.g., the CalCOFI program and now including the coastal ocean observing systems), leading to an excellent foundation for understanding the ecosystem impacts of dominant climate fluctuations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the northeast Pacific, ENSO impacts a wide range of physical and biotic processes, including temperature, stratification, winds, upwelling, and primary and secondary production. The El Niño phase of ENSO, in particular, can result in extensive geographic habitat range displacements and altered catches of fishes and invertebrates, and impact vertical and lateral export fluxes of carbon and other elements (Jacox et al., this issue; Anderson et al., this issue; Ohman et al., this issue). However, despite empirical observations and increased understanding of the coupling between climate and marine ecosystems along the US West Coast, there has been no systematic attempt to use this knowledge to forecast marine ecosystem responses to individual ENSO events. ENSO forecasting has become routine in the climate community. However, little has been done to forecast the impacts of ENSO on ecosystems and their services. This becomes especially important considering the occurrence of recent strong El Niño events (such as 2015-16) and climate model projections that suggest that ENSO extremes may become more frequent (Cai et al. 2015).

The joint US CLIVAR/OCB/NOAA/PICES/ICES workshop on Forecasting ENSO impacts on marine ecosystems of the US West Coast (Di Lorenzo et al. 2017) held in La Jolla, California, in August 2016 outlined a three-step strategy to better understand and quantify the ENSO-related predictability of marine ecosystem drivers along the US West Coast (Figure 1). The first step is to use a high-resolution ocean reanalysis to determine the association between local ecosystem drivers and regional forcing patterns (RFPs). The identification of ecosystem drivers will depend on the ecosystem indicators or target species selected for prediction (Ohman et al., this issue). The second step is to objectively identify the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) patterns that optimally force the RFPs along the US West Coast region using available long-term large-scale reanalysis products. While the goal of the first two steps is to understand the dynamical basis for predictability (Figure 1, blue path), the final third step (Figure 1, orange path) aims at quantifying the predictability of the RFPs and estimating their prediction skill at seasonal timescales. This third step can be implemented using the output of multi-model ensemble forecasts such as the North America Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) or by building efficient statistical prediction models such as Linear Inverse Models (LIMs; Newman et al. 2003).

Figure 1. Framework for understanding and predicting ENSO impacts on ecosystem drivers. Blue path shows the steps that will lead to Understanding of the ecosystem drivers and their dependence on tropical Pacific anomalies. Orange path shows the steps that will lead to quantifying the Predictability of marine ecosystem drivers along the US West Coast that are predictable from large-scale tropical teleconnection dynamics.

Important to the concept of ENSO predictability is the realization that the expressions of ENSO are very diverse and cannot be identified with a few indices (Capotondi et al. 2015; Capotondi et al., this issue). In fact, different expressions of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the tropics give rise to oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections that generate different coastal impacts in the northeast Pacific. For this reason, we will refer to ENSO as the collection of tropical Pacific SSTa that lead to deterministic and predictable responses in the regional ocean and atmosphere along the US West Coast.

In the sections below, we articulate in more detail the elements of the framework for quantifying the predictability of ENSO-related impacts on coastal ecosystems along the US West Coast (Figure 1). Our focus will be on the California Current System (CCS), reflecting the regional expertise of the workshop participants. Specifically, we discuss (1) the ecosystem drivers and what is identified as such; (2) RFP definitions; and (3) the teleconnections from the tropical Pacific and their predictability.

Ecosystem drivers in the California Current System

The impacts of oceanic processes on the CCS marine ecosystem have been investigated since the 1950s when the long-term California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) began routine seasonal sampling of coastal ocean waters. The CalCOFI program continues today and has been augmented with several other sampling programs (e.g., the coastal ocean observing network), leading to an unprecedented understanding of how climate and physical ocean processes, such as upwelling, drive ecosystem variability and change (e.g., see more recent reviews from King et al.2011; Ohman et al. 2013; Di Lorenzo et al. 2013).

The dominant physical oceanographic drivers of ecosystem variability occur on seasonal, interannual, and decadal timescales and are associated with changes in (1) SST; (2) upwelling velocity; (3) alongshore transport; (4) cross-shore transport; and (5) thermocline/nutricline depth (see Ohman et al., this issue). This set of ecosystem drivers emerged from discussions among experts at the workshop. Ecosystem responses to these drivers include multiple trophic levels, including phytoplankton, zooplankton, small pelagic fish, and top predators, and several examples have been identified for the CCS (see summary table in Ohman et al., this issue).

While much research has focused on diagnosing the mechanisms by which these physical drivers impact marine ecosystems, less is known about the dynamics controlling the predictability of these drivers. As highlighted in Ohman et al. (this issue), most of the regional oceanographic drivers (e.g., changes in local SST, upwelling, transport, thermocline depth) are connected to changes in large-scale forcings (e.g., winds, surface heat fluxes, large-scale SST and sea surface height patterns, freshwater fluxes, and remotely forced coastally trapped waves entering the CCS from the south). In fact, several studies have documented how large-scale changes in wind patterns associated with the Aleutian Low and the North Pacific Oscillation drive oceanic modes of variability such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (Mantua et al. 1997; Di Lorenzo et al. 2008; Chhak et al. 2009; Ohman et al., this issue; Jacox et al., this issue; Anderson et al., this issue; Capotondi et al., this issue) that influence the CCS. However, these large-scale modes only explain a fraction of the ecosystem’s atmospheric forcing functions at the regional-scale. Thus, it is important to identify other key forcings to gain a more complete mechanistic understanding of CCS ecosystem drivers (e.g., Jacox et al. 2014; 2015).

Atmospheric and oceanic regional forcing patterns

The dominant large-scale quantities that control the CCS ecosystem drivers are winds, heat fluxes, and remotely forced coastally trapped waves (Hickey 1979). Regional expressions or patterns of these large-scale forcings have been linked to changes in local stratification and thermocline depth (Veneziani et al. 2009a; 2009b; Combes et al. 2013), cross-shore transport associated with mesoscale eddies (Kurian et al. 2011; Todd et al. 2012; Song et al. 2012; Davis and Di Lorenzo 2015b), and along-shore transport (Davis and Di Lorenzo 2015a; Bograd et al. 2015). For this reason, we define the regional expressions of the atmospheric and remote wave forcing that are optimal in driving SST, ocean transport, upwelling, and thermocline depth as the RFPs. To clarify this concept, consider the estimation of coastal upwelling velocities. While a change in the position and strength in the Aleutian Low has been related to coastal upwelling in the northern CCS, a more targeted measure of the actual upwelling vertical velocity and nutrient fluxes that are relevant to primary productivity can only be quantified by taking into account a combination of oceanic processes that depend on multiple RFPs such as thermocline depth (e.g., remote waves), thermal stratification (e.g., heat fluxes), mesoscale eddies, and upwelling velocities (e.g., local patterns of wind stress curl and alongshore winds; see Gruber et al 2011; Jacox et al. 2015; Renault et al. 2016). In other words, if we consider the vertical coastal upwelling velocity (w) along the northern CCS, a more adequate physical description and quantification would be given from a linear combination of the different regional forcing functions w = Σ_n∝_n * RFP_n rather than w = ∝*Aleutian Low.

The largest interannual variability in the Pacific that impacts the RFPs is ENSO, which also constitutes the largest source of seasonal (3-6 months) predictability. During El Niño and La Niña, atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections from the tropics modify large-scale and local surface wind patterns and ocean currents of the CCS and force coastally trapped waves.

ENSO teleconnections and potential seasonal predictability of the regional forcing patterns

While ENSO exerts important controls on the RFPs in the CCS, it has become evident that ENSO expressions in the tropics vary significantly from event to event, leading to different responses in the CCS (Capotondi et al., this issue). Also, as previously pointed out, the CCS is not only sensitive to strong ENSO events but more generally responds to a wide range of tropical SSTa variability that is driven by ENSO-type dynamics in the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific. For this reason, we define an “ENSO teleconnection” as any RFP response that is linked to ENSO-type variability in the tropics.

ENSO can influence the upwelling and circulation in the CCS region through both oceanic and atmospheric pathways. It is well known that equatorial Kelvin waves, an integral part of ENSO dynamics, propagate eastward along the Equator and continue both northward (and southward) along the coasts of the Americas as coastally trapped Kelvin waves after reaching the eastern ocean boundary. El Niño events are associated with downwelling Kelvin waves, leading to a deepening of the thermocline, while La Niña events produce a shoaling of the thermocline in the CCS (Simpson 1984; Lynn and Bograd 2002; Huyer et al. 2002; Bograd et al. 2009; Hermann et al. 2009; Miller et al. 2015). The offshore scale of coastal Kelvin waves decreases with latitude, and the waves decay while propagating northward along the coast due to dissipation and radiation of westward propagating Rossby waves. In addition, topography and bathymetry can modify the nature of the waves and perhaps partially impede their propagation at some location. Thus, the efficiency of coastal waves of equatorial origin in modifying the stratification in the CCS is still a matter of debate. To complicate matters, regional wind variability south of the CCS also excites coastally trapped waves, which supplement the tropical source.

In the tropics, SST anomalies associated with ENSO change tropical convection and excite mid-troposphere stationary atmospheric Rossby waves that propagate signals to the extratropics, the so-called atmospheric ENSO teleconnections (Capotondi et al., this issue). Through these atmospheric waves, warm ENSO events favor a deepening and southward shift of the Aleutian Low pressure system that is dominant during winter, as well as changes in the North Pacific Subtropical High that is dominant during spring and summer, resulting in a weakening of the alongshore winds, reduced upwelling, and warmer surface water. These changes are similar to those induced by coastal Kelvin waves of equatorial origin, making it very difficult to distinguish the relative importance of the oceanic and atmospheric pathways in the CCS. In addition, due to internal atmospheric noise, the details of the ENSO teleconnections can vary significantly from event to event and result in important differences along the California Coast (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Schematic of ENSO teleconnection associated with different flavors of tropical SSTa. (a) Atmospheric teleconnections of the canonical eastern Pacific El Niño tend to impact the winter expression of the Aleutian Low, which in turn drives an oceanic SSTa anomaly that projects onto the pattern of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). (b) Atmospheric teleconnections of the central Pacific El Niño tend to impact the winter expression of the North Pacific High, which in turn drives an oceanic SSTa anomaly that projects onto the pattern of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). The ENSO SSTa maps are obtained by regressing indices of central and eastern Pacific ENSO with SSTa. The other maps are obtained by regression of SSTa/SLPa with the PDO (a) and NPGO (b) indices.

El Niño events exhibit a large diversity in amplitude, duration, and spatial pattern (Capotondi et al. 2015). The amplitude and location of the maximum SST anomalies, whether in the eastern (EP) or central (CP) Pacific, can have a large impact on ENSO teleconnections (Ashok et al. 2007; Larkin and Harrison 2005). While “canonical” EP events induce changes in the Aleutian Low (Figure 2b), CP events have been associated with a strengthening of the second mode of North Pacific atmospheric variability, the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO; Figure 2a; Di Lorenzo et al. 2010; Furtado et al. 2012). In addition, it is conceivable that EP events have a larger Kelvin wave signature than CP events, resulting in different oceanic influences in the CCS.

In summary, while the ENSO influence on the CCS physical and biological environments is undeniable, several sources of uncertainty remain about the details of that influence. This uncertainty arises in the physical environment on seasonal timescales from many sources, including the diversity of ENSO events, the intrinsic unpredictable components of the atmosphere, and the intrinsic unpredictable eddy variations in the CCS. We also need to distinguish between physically forced ecosystem response versus intrinsic biological variability, which is potentially nonlinear and likely unpredictable. Skill levels need to be quantified for each step of the prediction process (i.e., ENSO, teleconnections, local oceanic response, local ecosystem response) relative to a baseline—for example the persistence of initial condition, which is also being exploited for skillful predictions of the large marine ecosystem at the seasonal timescale (Tommasi et al., this issue). The target populations should be exploitable species that are of interest to federal and state agencies that regulate certain stocks. Models are currently being developed to use ocean forecasts to advance top predator management (Hazen et al., this issue). The implementation of this framework (Figure 1) for practical uses will require a collaborative effort between physical climate scientists with expertise in predicting and understanding ENSO and biologists who have expertise in understanding ecosystem response to physical climate forcing.

Authors

Emanuele Di Lorenzo (Georgia Institute of Technology)
Arthur J. Miller (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)

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Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

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Ecosystem drivers in the California Current System

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ENSO teleconnections and potential seasonal predictability of the regional forcing patterns

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