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Archive for modeling – Page 4

Chasing Sargassum in the Atlantic Ocean

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, March 25th, 2020

The pelagic brown alga Sargassum forms a habitat that hosts a rich diversity of life, including other algae, crustaceans, fish, turtles, and birds in both the Gulf of Mexico and the area of the Atlantic Ocean known as the Sargasso Sea. However, high abundances of Sargassum have been appearing in the tropical Atlantic, in some cases 3,000 miles away from the Sargasso Sea. This is a new phenomenon. Nearly every year since 2011, thick mats of Sargassum have blanketed the coastlines of many countries in tropical Africa and the Americas. When masses of Sargassum wash ashore, the seaweed rots, attracts insects, and repels beachgoers, with adverse ecological and socioeconomic effects. A new study in Progress in Oceanography sheds light on the mystery.

Figure 1. The hypothesized route of Sargasso Sea Sargassum to the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. The solid black lines indicate the climatological surface flow, the dashed black lines indicate areas where there was variability from the average conditions.

The authors analyzed reams of satellite data and used computer models of the Earth’s winds and ocean currents to try to understand why these large mats started to arrive in coastal areas in 2011. A strengthening and southward shift of the westerlies in the winter of 2009-2010 caused ocean currents to move the Sargassum toward the Iberian Peninsula, then southward in the Canary Current along Africa, where it entered the tropics by the middle of 2010 (Figure 1). The tropical Atlantic provided ample sunlight, warmer sea temperatures, and nutrients for the algae to flourish. In 2011, Sargassum spread across the entire tropical Atlantic in a massive belt north of the Equator, along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and these blooms have appeared nearly every year since. Utilizing international oceanographic studies done in the Atlantic since the 1960s, and multiple satellite sensors combined with Sargassum distribution patterns, the authors discovered that the trade winds aggregate the Sargassum under the ITCZ and mix the water deep enough to bring new nutrients to the surface and sustain the bloom.

Improved understanding and predictive capacity of Sargassum bloom occurrence will help us better constrain and quantify its impacts on our ecosystems, which can inform management of valuable fisheries and protected species.

Authors:
Elizabeth Johns (NOAA AMOL)
Rick Lumpkin (NOAA AMOL)
Nathan Putman (LGL Ecological Research Associates)
Ryan Smith (NOAA AMOL)
Frank Muller-Karger (University of South Florida)
Digna Rueda-Roa (University of South Florida)
Chuanmin Hu (University of South Florida)
Mengqiu Wang (University of South Florida)
Maureen Brooks (University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science)
Lewis Gramer (NOAA AMOL and University of Miami)
Francisco Werner (NOAA Fisheries)

Can phytoplankton help us determine ocean iron bioavailability?

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, March 11th, 2020

Iron (Fe) is a key element to sustaining life, but it is present at extremely low concentrations in seawater. This scarcity limits phytoplankton growth in large swaths of the global ocean, with implications for marine food webs and carbon cycling. The acquisition of Fe by phytoplankton is an important process that mediates the movement of carbon to the deep ocean and across trophic levels. It is a challenge to evaluate the ability of marine phytoplankton to obtain Fe from seawater since it is bound by a variety of poorly defined organic complexes.

Figure 1: Schematic representation of the reactions governing dissolved Fe (dFe) bioavailability to phytoplankton (a) Bioavailability of dFe in seawater collected from various basins and depth and probed with different iron-limited phytoplankton species under dim laboratory light and sunlight (b) (See paper for further details on samples and species)

A recent study in The ISME Journal proposes a new approach for evaluating seawater dissolved Fe (dFe) bioavailability based on its uptake rate constant by Fe-limited cultured phytoplankton. The authors collected samples from distinct regions across the global ocean, measured the properties of organic complexation, loaded these complexes with a radioactive Fe isotope, and then tracked the internalization rates from these forms to a diverse set of Fe-limited phytoplankton species. Regardless of origin, all of the phytoplankton acquired natural organic complexes at similar rates (accounting for cell surface area). This confirms that multiple Fe-limited phytoplankton species can be used to probe dFe bioavailability in seawater. Among water types, dFe bioavailability varied by ~4-fold and did not clearly correlate with Fe concentrations or any of the measured Fe speciation parameters. This new approach provides a novel way to determine Fe bioavailability in samples from across the oceans and enables modeling of in situ Fe uptake rates by phytoplankton based simply on measured Fe concentrations.

Authors:
Yeala Shaked (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
Kristen N. Buck (University of South Florida)
Travis Mellett (University of South Florida)
Maria. T. Maldonado (University of British Columbia)

The past, present, and future of the ocean carbon cycle: A global data product with regional insights

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, January 21st, 2020

A new study published in Scientific Reports debuts a global data product of ocean acidification (OA) and buffer capacity from the beginning of the Industrial Revolution to the end of the century (1750-2100 C.E.). To develop this product, the authors linked one of the richest observational carbon dioxide (CO₂) data products (6^th version of the Surface Ocean CO₂ Atlas, 1991-2018, ~23 million observations) with temporal trends modeled at individual locations in the global ocean. By linking the modeled pH trends to the observed modern pH distribution, the climatology benefits from recent improvements in both model design and observational data coverage, and is likely to provide more accurate regional OA trajectories than the model output alone. The authors also show that air-sea CO₂ disequilibrium is the dominant mode of spatial variability for surface pH, and discuss why pH and calcium carbonate mineral saturation states (Omega), two important metrics for OA, show contrasting spatial variability. They discover that sea surface temperature (SST) imposes two large but cancelling effects on surface ocean pH and Omega, i.e., the effects of SST on (a) chemical speciation of the carbonic system; and (b) air-sea exchange of CO₂ and the subsequent DIC/TA ratio of the seawater. These two processes act in concert for Omega but oppose each other for pH. As a result, while Omega is markedly lower in the colder polar regions than in the warmer subtropical and tropical regions, surface ocean pH shows little latitudinal variation.

Figure 1. Spatial distribution of global surface ocean pH_T (total hydrogen scale, annually averaged) in past (1770), present (2000) and future (2100) under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario.

This data product, which extends from the pre-Industrial era (1750 C.E.) to the end of this century under historical atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (pre-2005) and the Representative Concentrations Pathways (post-2005) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s 5^th Assessment Report, may be helpful to policy-makers and managers who are developing regional adaptation strategies for ocean acidification.

The published paper is available here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-55039-4

The data product is available here: https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/oads/data/0206289.xml

Authors:
Li-Qing Jiang (University of Maryland and NOAA NCEI)
Brendan Carter (NOAA PMEL and University of Washington JISAO)
Richard Feely (NOAA PMEL)
Siv Lauvset, Are Olsen (University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway)

What really controls deep-seafloor calcite dissolution?

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, December 16th, 2019

On time scales of tens to millions of years, seawater acidity is primarily controlled by biogenic calcite (CaCO₃) dissolution on the seafloor. Our quantitative understanding of future oceanic pH and carbonate system chemistry requires knowledge of what controls this dissolution. Past experiments on the dissolution rate of suspended calcite grains have consistently suggested a high-order, nonlinear dependence on undersaturation that is independent of fluid flow rate. This form of kinetics has been extensively adopted in models of deep-sea calcite dissolution and pH of benthic sediments. However, stirred-chamber and rotating-disc dissolution experiments have consistently demonstrated linear kinetics of dissolution and a strong dependence on fluid flow velocity. This experimental discrepancy surrounding the kinetic control of seafloor calcite dissolution precludes robust predictions of oceanic response to anthropogenic acidification.

In a recent study published in Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, authors have reconciled these divergent experimental results through an equation for the mass balance of the carbonate ion at the sediment-water interface (SWI), which equates the rate of production of that ion via dissolution and its diffusion in sediment porewaters to the transport across the diffusive sublayer (DBL) at the SWI. If the rate constant derived from suspended-grain experiments is inserted into this balance equation, the rate of carbonate ion supply to the SWI from the sediment (sediment-side control) is much greater in the oceans than the rate of transfer across the DBL (water-side control). Thus, calcite dissolution at the seafloor, while technically under mixed control, is strongly water-side dominated. Consequently, a model that neglects boundary-layer transport (sediment-side control alone) invariably predicts CaCO₃-versus-depth profiles that are too shallow compared to available data (Figure 1). These new findings will inform future attempts to model the ocean’s response to acidification.

Figure 1: Plots of the calcite (CaCO₃) content of deep-sea sediments as a function of oceanic depth. Left panel: data from the Northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Right panel: data from the Southwest Pacific Ocean. The blue line represents predicted CaCO₃ content assuming no boundary-layer effects (pure sediment-side control). The red line is the prediction that includes both sediment and water effects (mixed control), and the green line is the prediction with pure water-side control. The agreement between the red and green lines signifies that calcite dissolution is essentially water-side controlled at the seafloor. These results are duplicated for all tested regions of the oceans.

Authors:
Bernard P. Boudreau (Dalhousie University)
Olivier Sulpis (University of Utrecht)
Alfonso Mucci (McGill University)

Estimating the large-scale biological pump: Do eddies matter?

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, December 4th, 2019

One factor that limits our capacity to quantify the ocean biological carbon pump is uncertainty associated with the physical injection of particulate (POC) and dissolved (DOC) organic carbon to the ocean interior. It is challenging to integrate the effects of these pumps, which operate at small spatial (<100 km) and temporal (<1 month) scales. Previous observational and fine-scale modeling studies have thus far been unable to quantify these small-scale effects. In a recent study published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles, authors explored the influence of these physical carbon pumps relative to sinking (gravity-driven) particles on annual and regional scales using a high-resolution (2 km) biophysical model of the North Atlantic that simulates intense eddy-driven subduction hotspots that are consistent with observations.

Figure 1: North Atlantic idealized double gyre ocean biophysical model. Top: Sea surface temperature, surface chlorophyll and mixed-layer depth during the spring bloom (March 21). Bottom: total export of organic carbon (POC+DOC) at 100 and individual contributions from the gravitational (particle sinking) and subduction (mixing, eddy advection and Ekman pumping) pumps for one day during the spring bloom (March 21) and averaged annually. Physical subduction hotspots visible on the daily export contribute little to the annual export due to strong compensation of upward and downward motions.

The authors showed that eddy dynamics can transport carbon below the mixed-layer (500-1000 m depth), but this mechanism contributes little (<5%) to annual export at the basin scale due to strong compensation between upward and downward fluxes (Figure 1). Additionally, the authors evidenced that small-scale mixing events intermittently export large amounts of suspended DOC and POC.

These results underscore the need to expand the traditional view of the mixed-layer carbon pump (wintertime export of DOC) to include downward mixing of POC associated with short-lived springtime mixing events, as well as eddy-driven subduction, which can contribute to longer-term ocean carbon storage. High-resolution measurements are needed to validate these model results and constrain the magnitude of the compensation between upward and downward carbon transport by small-scale physical processes.

Authors:
Laure Resplandy (Princeton University)
Marina Lévy (Sorbonne Université)
Dennis J. McGillicuddy Jr. (WHOI)

The Equatorial Undercurrent influences the fate of the Oxygen Minimum Zone in the Pacific

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, November 12th, 2019

While the ocean as a whole is losing oxygen due to warming, oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are maintained by a delicate balance of biological and physical processes; it is unclear how each one of them is going to evolve in the future. Changes to OMZs could affect the global uptake of carbon, the generation of greenhouse gases, and interactions among marine life. Current generation coarse-resolution (~1°) climate models compromise the ability to simulate low-oxygen waters and their response to climate change in the future because they fail to reproduce a major ocean current, the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC). These shortcomings lead to an overly tilted upper oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) (Figure 1), thus exaggerating sensitivity to circulation changes and overwhelming other key processes like diffusion and biology. The EUC also plays a vital role in feeding the eastern Pacific upwelling region, connecting it to global climate variability.

Figure: Top: The boundary of the Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ) along the Equator is unrealistically tilted for current generation (coarse resolution) climate models, and improves with increased horizontal resolution. The tilt is due to a bad representation of the Equatorial Undercurrent in the coarse model, also seen in other coarse models. The exaggerated tilt of the OMZ boundary at the Equator leads to increased inter-annual variability of the depth of the upper OMZ boundary, via changes in the zonal flow (left). This phenomenon is found in most CMIP5 models (right) and could be responsible for the current inability to predict the change in OMZ extent for the next century.

A recent high‐resolution climate model study in Geophysical Research Letters significantly improved the representation of both the EUC and OMZ, suggesting that the EUC is a key player in OMZ variability. This study emphasizes the importance of improving transport processes in global circulation models to better simulate oxygen distribution and predict future OMZ extent. The results of this study imply that the fundamental dynamics maintaining this key ocean current could be categorically misrepresented in the current generation of climate models, potentially influencing the ability to predict future climate variability and trends.

Authors:
Julius J.M. Busecke (Princeton University)
Laure Resplandy (Princeton University)
John P. Dunne (NOAA/GFDL)

Pumped up by the cold: Increased elemental density in polar diatoms

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, October 28th, 2019

Large diatoms are common in polar phytoplankton blooms, contributing significantly to food webs and carbon export, but relatively little is known about their elemental biogeochemistry. A recent study in Frontiers in Marine Science showed that the size-dependent increase in cell nutrient content for polar diatoms was similar to published values for temperate diatoms, whereas the elemental density (mass per unit volume) of polar diatoms was substantially greater for all elements measured (carbon, nitrogen, silicon and phosphorus). Furthermore, at near freezing culture temperatures, there was a positive relationship between diatom size and realized growth rates near their theoretical maximum (Figure 1). Because of the differences in elemental density between carbon and silica, these diatoms exhibited particulate C:Si ratios that are commonly interpreted as a sign of iron limitation; yet these cultures were trace metal-replete. The observed elemental composition differences suggest that it may be important for polar biogeochemical models to include different representations of diatom biogeochemistry by accounting for the functions of size and near freezing temperature.

Figure 1. Left: Cellular carbon content for polar diatoms across four orders of magnitude in biovolume compared to the same relationship for a wide range of non-polar diatoms (MD&L = Menden-Deuer & Lessard, 2000). The y-intercept is the estimate of the baseline carbon density in these polar diatoms, and is significantly higher than the literature values reviewed in MD&L (2000). Right: Growth rate of the same polar diatoms expressed as a percent of their calculated maximum growth rate at 2°C. Error bars represent the range of values observed in the experiments. Maximum growth rate was estimated by 1) applying the growth rate/biovolume relationships published by Chisholm (1992) and Edwards et al. (2012) to the observed biovolume for each culture, and 2) scaling this growth rate to 2°C growth temperature using the relationship of Eppley (1972).

Authors:
Michael Lomas (Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences)
Steven Baer (Maine Maritime Academy)
Sydney Acton (Dauphin Island Sea Lab)
Jeffrey Krause (Dauphin Island Sea Lab and University of South Alabama)

A new tidal non-photochemical quenching model reveals obscured variability in coastal chlorophyll fluorescence

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, October 15th, 2019

Although chlorophyll fluorescence is widely-used as a proxy for chlorophyll concentration, sunlight exposure makes fluorescence measurements inaccurate through a process called non-photochemical quenching, limiting its proxy accuracy during daylight hours. In the open ocean, where time and space scales are large relative to variability in phytoplankton concentration, daytime chlorophyll fluorescence—necessary for satellite algorithm validation and for understanding diurnal variability in phytoplankton abundance—can be estimated by averaging across successive nighttime, unquenched values. In coastal waters, where semidiurnal tidal advection drives small scale patchiness and short temporal variability, successive nighttime observations do not accurately represent the intervening daytime. Thus, it is necessary to apply a non-photochemical quenching correction that accounts for the additional effect of tidal advection.

In a recent study in L&O Methods, authors developed a model that uses measurements of tidal velocity to correct daytime chlorophyll fluorescence for non-photochemical quenching and tidal advection. The model identifies high tide and low tide endmember populations of phytoplankton from tidal velocity, and estimates daytime chlorophyll fluorescence as a conservative interpolation between endmember fluorescence at those tidal maxima and minima (Figure 1). Rather than removing nearly 12 hours’ worth of hourly chlorophyll fluorescence observations (i.e., all of the daytime observations) as was previously necessary, this model recovers them. The model output performs more accurately as a proxy for chlorophyll concentration than raw daytime chlorophyll fluorescence measurements by a factor of two, and enables tracking of phytoplankton populations with chlorophyll fluorescence in a Lagrangian sense from Eulerian measurements. Finally, because the model assumes conservation, periods of non-conservative variability are revealed by comparison between model and measurements, helping to elucidate controls on variability in phytoplankton abundance in coastal waters.

Figure 1: Model (light blue line) is a tidal interpolation between high tide (blue points) and low tide (red points) phytoplankton endmembers. The model represents nighttime, unquenched chlorophyll fluorescence measurements well (black points), while daytime, quenched measurements are visibly reduced (gray points).

This result is a critical achievement, as it enables the use of daytime chlorophyll fluorescence, which increases the temporal resolution of coastal chlorophyll fluorescence measurements, and also provides a mechanism for satellite validation of the ocean color chlorophyll data product in coastal waters. The model’s capacity to accurately simulate the pervasive effect of non-photochemical quenching makes it a vital tool for any researcher or coastal water manager measuring chlorophyll fluorescence. This model will help to provide new insights on the movement of and controls on phytoplankton populations across the land-ocean continuum.

Authors:
Luke Carberry (University of California, Santa Barbara)
Collin Roesler (Bowdoin College)
Susan Drapeau (Bowdoin College)

A new roadmap of climate change driven ocean changes

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, October 2nd, 2019

When will we see significant changes in the ocean due to climate change? A new study in Nature Climate Change confirms that outcomes tied directly to the escalation of atmospheric carbon dioxide have already emerged in the existing 30-year observational record. These include sea surface warming, acidification, and increases in the rate at which the ocean removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

In contrast, processes tied indirectly to the ramp-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide through the gradual modification of climate and ocean circulation will take longer, from three decades to more than a century. These include changes in upper-ocean mixing, nutrient supply, and the cycling of carbon through marine plants and animals.

The researchers performed model simulations of potential future climate states that could result from a combination of human-made climate change and random chance (figure 1). These experiments were performed with an Earth System Model, a climate model that has an interactive carbon cycle such that changes in the climate and carbon cycle can be considered in tandem.

Figure 1: Percentage of ocean with emergent anthropogenic trends in ocean biogeochemical and physical variables. A time series of the percentage of the global ocean area with locally emergent anthropogenic trends illustrates the disparity of emergence timescales for anthropogenic changes in the ocean carbon cycle. Emergence is defined as the point in time when the LE’s signal-to-noise ratio for a linear trend referenced to the year 1990 first exceeds a magnitude of two, which represents a 95% confidence in the identification of an anthropogenic trend in the LE Ω applies to the saturation state of both the aragonite and calcite forms of calcium carbonate (CaCO₃), for which the emergence times are approximately equivalent. The CaCO₃ and soft-tissue pumps were calculated as the export flux at 100 m depth of CaCO₃ and particulate organic carbon, respectively. The heat content was calculated as an integral over 0–700 m, whereas the oxygen (O₂) inventories consider the integral 200–600 m, and chlorophyll inventories were considered over 0–500 m. NPP represents an integral over 0–100 m. All the other variables represent sea surface properties.

The finding of a 30- to 100-year delay in the emergence of effects suggests that ocean observation programs should be maintained for many decades into the future to effectively monitor the changes occurring in the ocean. The study also indicates that the detectability of some changes in the ocean would benefit from improvements to the current observational sampling strategy. These include looking deeper into the ocean for changes in phytoplankton and capturing changes in both summer and winter ocean-atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide rather than just the annual mean.

Figure 2. Venn Diagram schematic of sources of uncertainty in simulation (using Earth-System Modeling approach) and observation of changes in the Earth system. For emergence, detection or attribution of an observed or simulated signal to occur, the signal must overcome the sources of uncertainty in their respective brackets.

Many types of observational efforts, including time-series or permanent locations of continuous measurement, as well as regional sampling programs and global remote sensing platforms are critical for understanding our changing planet and improving our capacity to detect change.

Authors:
Sarah Schlunegger (Princeton University)
Keith B. Rodgers (Institute for Basic Science and Busan National University, South Korea)
Jorge L. Sarmiento (Princeton University)
Thomas L. Frölicher (University of Bern)
John P. Dunne (NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Masao Ishii (Japan Meteorological Agency)
Richard Slater (Princeton University)

Where the primary production goes determines whether you catch tuna or cod

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, September 6th, 2019

Fishes are incredibly diverse, fill various roles in their ecosystems, and are an important resource—economically, socially, and nutritionally. The relationship between primary productivity and fish catches is not straightforward; fisheries oceanographers and managers have long struggled to predict abundances and fully understand the controls of cross-ecosystem differences in fish abundances and assemblages. A recent study in Progress in Oceanography modeled the relationships between fish abundances and assemblages and ecosystem factors such as physical properties and plankton productivity.

The mechanistic model simulated feeding, growth, reproduction, and mortality of small pelagic forage fish, large pelagic fish, and demersal (bottom-dwelling) fish in the global ocean using plankton food web estimates and ocean conditions from a high-resolution earth system model of the 1990s. Modeled fish assemblages were more related to the separation of secondary production into pelagic zooplankton or benthic fauna secondary production than to primary productivity. Specifically, the ratio of pelagic to benthic production drove spatial differences in dominance by large pelagic fish or by demersal fish. Similarly, demersal fish abundance was highly sensitive to the efficiency of energy transfer from exported surface production to benthic fauna.

The model results offer a systematic understanding of how marine fish communities are structured by spatially varying environmental conditions. With global climate change, the expected decrease in exported primary production would lead to fewer demersal fish around the world. This model provides a framework for testing the effect of changing conditions on fish communities at a global scale, which can also help inform managers of potential impacts on economic, social, and nutritional resources worldwide.

Figure 1: (A) Sample food web with three fish types, two habitats, two prey categories, and feeding interactions (arrows). Dashed arrow denotes feeding only occurs in shelf regions with depth <200 m. (B) Fraction of large pelagic vs. demersal fishes (LP/(LP+D)) as a function of the ratio of zooplankton production lost to higher predation (Zoop) to detritus flux to the seafloor (Bent) averaged over large marine ecosystems. Solid line: predicted linear model response, dashed lines: standard error. (Lower panels) Circles=mean biomasses (g m^-2) and lines=fluxes of biomass (g m^-2 d^-1) through the pelagic (top 100m) and benthic components of the food webs at two test locations, (C) Peruvian Upwelling (PUP) ecosystem and (D) Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) shelf ecosystem. Circles and lines scale with the modeled biomasses and fluxes. Circle color key: Gray=net primary productivity (NPP); yellow=medium and large zooplankton; red=forage fish; blue=large pelagic fish; brown=benthos; green=demersal fish.

Authors:
Colleen M. Petrik (Princeton University, Texas A&M University)
Charles A. Stock (NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Ken H. Andersen (Technical University of Denmark)
P. Daniël van Denderen (Technical University of Denmark)
James R. Watson (Oregon State University)

Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

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