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Archive for modeling – Page 5

Forecasting air-sea CO2 flux variations several years in advance

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, July 9th, 2019

Year-to-year changes in the flux of CO₂ between the atmosphere and the ocean impact the global carbon cycle and climate system, and challenge our ability to verify fossil fuel CO₂ emissions. A new study published in Earth System Dynamics suggests that these air-sea CO₂ flux variations are predictable several years in advance.

A novel set of initialized forecasts of past air-sea CO₂ flux from an Earth system model (Figure 1a) confidently predicts year-to-year variations in the globally-integrated flux up to two years in advance. At regional scales, the forecast lead time increases. The predictability of CO₂ flux from the initialized forecast system exceeds that obtained solely from foreknowledge of variations in external forcing (e.g., volcanic eruptions) or a simple persistence forecast (e.g., CO₂ flux this year will be the same as next year). The longest-lasting forecast enhancements are in the subantarctic Southern Ocean and the northern North Atlantic (Figure 1b).

Figure 1: (a) Forecasts of the past evolution of air-sea CO2 flux in the South Pacific using an Earth System model indicate the potential to predict the future evolution of this quantity. (b) In each biome, the maximum forecast lead time in which the initialized forecast of air-sea CO2 flux beats out other forecast methods.

These results are particularly meaningful for those forecasting year-to-year changes in the global carbon budget, especially as these forecasting efforts are blind to the externally-forced variability in advance (i.e., the external forcing of the future is unknown). In this way, forecasts of air-sea CO₂ flux variations can help to inform future predictions of land-air CO₂ flux and atmospheric CO₂ concentration.

Authors:
Nicole Lovenduski (University of Colorado Boulder)
Stephen G. Yeager (National Center for Atmospheric Research)
Keith Lindsay (National Center for Atmospheric Research)
Matthew C. Long (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

See also the OCB Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions: Scoping directions for U.S. research Workshop to be held in October 1-3, 2019

Ocean microbes drive fluctuating nutrient loss

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, May 28th, 2019

The removal of bioavailable nitrogen (N) by anaerobic microbes in the ocean’s oxygen deficient zones (ODZs) is thought to vary over time primarily as a result of climate impacts on ocean circulation and primary production. However, a recent study in PNAS using a data-constrained model of the microbial ecosystem in the world’s largest ODZ revealed that internal species oscillations cause local- to basin-scale fluctuations in the rate of N loss, even in a completely stable physical environment. Such ecosystem oscillations have been hypothesized for nearly a century in idealized models, but are rarely shown to persist in a three-dimensional ocean circulation model.

Figure caption. Ecological variability in the basin-scale rate of nitrogen loss over time (left) and in the local-scale contribution of autotrophic anammox to total N loss (right) in a model with unchanging ocean circulation. In the left panel, colors represent model simulations with different biological parameters. In the right panel, colors represent distinct locations within the ODZ in the standard model simulation.

These emergent ecosystem dynamics arise at the oxic-anoxic interface from O₂-dependent resource competition between aerobic and anaerobic microbes, and leave a unique geochemical fingerprint: infrequent spikes in ammonium that are observable in nutrient measurements from the ODZ. Non-equilibrium ecosystem behavior driven by competition among aerobic nitrifiers, anaerobic denitrifiers, and anammox bacteria also generates fluctuations in the balance of autotrophic versus heterotrophic N loss pathways that help reconcile conflicting field observations.

These internally driven fluctuations in microbial community structure partially obscure a direct correspondence between the chemical environment and microbial rates, a universal assumption in biogeochemical models. Because of the fundamental nature of the underlying mechanism, similar dynamics are hypothesized to occur across wide-ranging microbial communities in diverse habitats.

Authors:
Justin L. Penn (University of Washington)
Thomas Weber (University of Rochester),
Bonnie X. Chang (University of Washington, NOAA)
Curtis Deutsch (University of Washington)

See also the OCB2019 plenary session: Anthropogenic changes in ocean oxygen: Coastal and open ocean perspectives (Monday, June 24, 2019)

Suddenly shallow: A new aragonite saturation horizon will soon emerge in the Southern Ocean

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, May 27th, 2019

Earth System Models (ESMs) project that by the end of this century, the aragonite saturation horizon (the boundary between shallower, saturated waters and deeper, undersaturated waters that are corrosive to aragonitic shells) will shoal all the way to the surface in the Southern Ocean, yet the temporal evolution of the horizon has not been studied in much detail. Rather than a gradual shoaling, a new shallow aragonite saturation horizon emerges suddenly across many locations in the Southern Ocean between now and the end of the century (Figure 1, left), as detailed in a new study published in Nature Climate Change.

Figure 1: Maximum step-change in the depth of the aragonite saturation horizon (left), timing of the step-change (center), and cause of the change (right). Xs on the time axis (center) indicate when the shallow horizon emerges in each ensemble member. (click image to enlarge)

The emergence of the shallow aragonite saturation horizon is apparent in each member of an ensemble of climate projections from an ESM, but the step change occurs during different years (Figure 1, center). The shoaling is driven by the gradual accumulation of anthropogenic CO₂ in the Southern Ocean thermocline, where the carbonate ion concentration exhibits a local minimum and approaches undersaturation (Figure 1, right).

The abrupt shoaling of the Southern Ocean aragonite saturation horizon occurs under both business-as-usual and emission-stabilizing scenarios, indicating an inevitable and sudden decrease in the volume of suitable habitat for aragonitic organisms such as shelled pteropods, foraminifers, cold-water corals, sea urchins, molluscs, and coralline algae. Widespread reductions in these habitats may have far-reaching consequences for fisheries, economies, and livelihoods.

Authors:
Gabriela Negrete-García (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
Nicole Lovenduski (University of Colorado Boulder)

See also OCB2019 plenary session: Carbon cycle feedbacks from the seafloor (Wednesday, June 26, 2019)

Northeast Pacific time-series reveals episodic events as major player in carbon export

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, April 16th, 2019

Temporal fluctuations in the oceanic carbon budget play an important role in the cycling of organic matter from production in surface waters to consumption and sequestration in the deep ocean. A 29-year time-series (1989-2017) of particulate organic carbon (POC) fluxes and seafloor measurements of oxygen consumption in the abyssal northeast Pacific (Sta. M, 4,000 m depth) recently revealed an increasing proportional contribution from episodic events over the past seven years. From 2011 to 2017, 43% of POC flux arrived during high-magnitude (≥ mean + 2 σ) episodic events. Time lags between changes in satellite-estimated export flux (EF), POC flux to the seafloor, and seafloor oxygen consumption varied from 0 to 70 days among six flux events, which could be attributed to variable remineralization rates and/or particle sinking speeds. The Martin equation, a commonly used model to estimate carbon flux, predicted background fluxes well but missed episodic fluxes, subsequently underestimating the measured fluxes by almost 50% (Figure 1). This study reveals the potential importance of episodic POC pulses into the deep sea in the oceanic carbon budget, which has implications for observing infrastructure, model development, and field campaigns focused on quantifying carbon export.

Figure Caption: (A) Station M POC flux measured from sediment traps compared to Martin model estimates, from 1989 to 2017. (B) Model performance for years with >50% sampling coverage: (POC flux_Martin − POC flux_trap)/POC flux_trap 100.

Authors:
Kenneth Smith (MBARI)
Henry Ruhl (MBARI, NOC)
Christine Huffard (MBARI)
Monique Messié (MBARI, Aix Marseille Université)
Mati Kahru (Scripps)

Ocean color offers early warning signal of climate change’s impact on marine phytoplankton

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, April 15th, 2019

Marine phytoplankton form the foundation of the marine food web and play a crucial role in the earth’s carbon cycle. Typically, satellite-derived Chlorophyll a (Chl a) is used to evaluate trends in phytoplankton. However, it may be many decades (or longer) before we see a statistically significant signature of climate change in Chl a due to its inherently large natural variability. In a recent study in Nature Communications, authors explored how other metrics, in particular the color of the ocean, may show earlier and stronger signals of climate change at the base of the marine food web.

Figure 1. Computer model results indicating the year in which the signature of climate change impact is larger than the natural variability for (a) Chl a, and (b) remotely sensed reflectance in the blue-green waveband. White areas indicate where there is not a statistically significant change by 2100, or for regions that are currently ice-covered.

In this study, the authors use a unique marine physical-biogeochemical and ecosystem model that also captures how light penetrates the ocean and is reflected upward. The model shows that over the course of the 21^st century, remote sensing reflectance (R_RS, the ratio of upwelling radiance to the downwelling irradiance at the ocean’s surface) in the blue-green portions of the light spectrum is likely to have an earlier, more spatially extensive climate change-driven signal than Chl a (Figure 1). This is because R_RS integrates not only changes to Chl a, but also alterations in other optically important water constituents. In particular, R_RS also captures changes in phytoplankton community structure, which strongly affects ocean optics and is likely to be altered over the 21^st century. Monitoring the response of marine phytoplankton to climate change is important for predicting changes at higher trophic levels, including commercial fisheries. Our study emphasizes the importance of 1) maintaining ocean color sensor compatibility and long-term stability, particularly in the blue-green wavebands; 2) maintaining long-term in situ time-series of plankton communities – e.g., the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey and repeat stations (e.g., HOT, BATS); and 3) reducing uncertainties in satellite-derived phytoplankton community structure estimates.

Authors:
Stephanie Dutkiewicz, Oliver Jahn (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Anna E. Hickman (University of Southampton)
Stephanie Henson (National Oceanography Centre Southampton)
Claudie Beaulieu (University of California, Santa Cruz)
Erwan Monier (University of California, Davis)

Zooplankton vertical migrations represent a significant source of carbon export in the ocean

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, March 15th, 2019

Huge numbers of tiny marine animals, known as zooplankton, migrate between the surface ocean and the twilight zone (200 – 1,000 m below the surface) everyday; it is the largest migration event anywhere on the planet. How much carbon do these animals transport with them and how much do they leave behind sequestered in the deep ocean? In a recent publication in Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Archibald et al. (2019) used a simple model to estimate the magnitude of carbon flux into the twilight zone from zooplankton vertical migrations and observed that it was a significant contributor to carbon export on a global scale. The study also revealed strong regional patterns in migration-mediated carbon flux, with the greatest impact on export occurring at subtropical latitudes (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Percent increase in the modeled carbon export flux out of the surface ocean as a result of zooplankton vertical migrations.

Migrating zooplankton also consume significant amounts of oxygen at depth, generating a local maximum in the oxygen utilization profile at depth within the migration layer. By including the effect of the metabolism of migrating zooplankton, the model is able to produce a more detailed picture of oxygen utilization over the twilight zone. The model in this study effectively simulates the complex phenomenon of zooplankton vertical migrations, providing a simple framework that will allow researchers to investigate how this key component of the global carbon cycle might change under future climatic conditions. For example, if increased stratification leads to a greater representation of small cells in phytoplankton communities, then zooplankton migration-mediated carbon export is expected to make up a proportionally larger fraction of the total carbon export flux.

Authors:
Kevin M. Archibald (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
David A. Siegel (University of California, Santa Barbara)
Scott C. Doney (University of Virginia)

Dust-borne iron in the Southern Ocean was more bioavailable during glacial periods

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, January 23rd, 2019

The Southern Ocean is iron (Fe)-limited, and increased fluxes of dust-borne Fe to the Southern Ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have been associated with phytoplankton growth and CO₂ drawdown. Dust contains different mixes of Fe-bearing minerals, depending on the source region. Fe(II) silicate minerals from physical weathering are more bioavailable than Fe(III) oxyhydroxide minerals from chemical weathering. The Fe(II) silicates are dominant in dust sources that have been weathered from bedrock by glaciers in Patagonia, but the impact of glacial activity on dust-borne Fe speciation (Fe oxidation state and mineral composition) and bioavailability over the last glacial cycle has not previously been quantified.

Figure 1. The fraction of Fe(II) in dust (Fe(II)/Fetotal, dominated by Fe(II) silicates, shown as blue dots connected with dotted lines on blue axes) in marine sediment cores from (A) the South Atlantic and (B) the South Pacific plotted with the total dust flux (grey lines on grey axes).

A recent study in PNAS reconstructs the speciation of dust-borne Fe over the last glacial cycle in South Atlantic and South Pacific marine sediment cores using Fe K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy. The authors observed that the highly bioavailable Fe(II) silicate content of dust-borne Fe is higher in both regions during cold glacial periods, suggesting that a given flux of Fe is more bioavailable in glacial versus interglacial periods (Figure 1). Therefore, all Fe cannot be considered equal in biogeochemical models working on glacial-interglacial timescales. The bioavailability of a given flux of Fe at the LGM was likely a dominant driver of phytoplankton growth, with more bioavailable Fe driving increased phytoplankton activity and associated atmospheric CO₂ drawdown and subsequent cooling. The observed association between glacial periods and increased Fe bioavailability in the Southern Ocean may indicate an important positive feedback mechanism between glacial activity and cold glacial temperatures through Fe speciation and the efficiency of the biological pump.

Paper link: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1809755115

Authors:
Elizabeth M. Shoenfelt (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University)
Gisela Winckler (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University)
Frank Lamy (Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)
Robert F. Anderson (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University)
Benjamin C. Bostick (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University)

Constraints on glacial overturning circulation and export production lead to answers about the carbon cycle

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, January 4th, 2019

One of the biggest unsolved mysteries in climate science concerns the dynamics and feedbacks of the ice age carbon dioxide (CO₂) cycle.

At the height of the Pleistocene ice ages, the atmospheric CO₂ concentration was about 1/3 lower than during the warm interglacial periods. Most scientists think that the CO₂ that was missing from the atmosphere was in the deep ocean, but how and why remains unclear. In a study published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters, we compared different computer simulations of the ice age ocean with δ¹³C, radiocarbon (¹⁴C), and δ¹⁵N data from sea floor sediments.

We find that a weak and shallow Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (6-9 Sv, or approximately half of today’s overturning rate) best reproduces the glacial sediment isotope data. Increasing the atmospheric soluble iron flux in the model’s Southern Ocean intensifies export production, carbon storage, and further improves agreement with glacial δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N reconstructions.

Figure Caption: Depth profiles of global mean δ13C, calculated using only grid boxes for which there exists Last Glacial Maximum data. Blue: Weak Atlantic circulation; Red: Strong Atlantic circulation; Green: Collapsed Atlantic circulation; Dashed: Extra iron in the Southern Ocean; Orange: Last Glacial Maximum Data.

Our best-fitting simulation (blue, dashed line in the figure) is a significant improvement over previous studies and suggests that both circulation and export production changes were necessary to maximize carbon storage in the glacial ocean. These findings provide an equilibrium glacial state, consistent with a combination of proxies, that can be used as a basis for simulations covering the last deglaciation time period. Understanding the different states that the global climate system can transit, and the characteristics of the transitions, is crucial to project possible outcomes of current climate change processes.

Authors:
Juan Muglia (Oregon State University)
Luke C. Skinner (Godwin Laboratory for Palaeoclimate Research, University of Cambridge)
Andreas Schmittner (Oregon State University)

Alternative particle formation pathways identified in the Equatorial Pacific’s biological pump

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, November 27th, 2018

The ocean is one of the largest sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) on our planet, driven in part by CO₂uptake by phytoplankton in the upper ocean during photosynthesis. Eventually, a portion of the resulting organic carbon is transported to depth, where it is sequestered from the atmosphere for centuries or even millennia. Our current understanding of the biological pump is based on the export of organic material in the form of large, fast-sinking (hundreds of meters per day) particles. However, using lipids as biomarkers, a recent study from the Equatorial Pacific Ocean published in JGR Biogeosciences showed that fast-sinking particles are refractory and distinctly different from plankton in the mixed layer, whereas slow-sinking particles were more labile and had a more similar composition to mixed layer particles (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. Particle lipid compositions for different particle fractions: ML = homogenous mixed layer particles, SU = suspended, SS = slow-sinking, and FS = fast-sinking of a) labile compounds known as unsaturated fatty acids synthesized by phytoplankton that provide a lot of energy for heterotrophs and b) sterols, including cholesterol (dark blue), which can be a biomarker for heterotrophy. Mixed layer particles are the most labile, showing the least degree of heterotrophic reworking, as expected. However, fast-sinking particles are most dissimilar from those in the mixed layer, with only a small proportion of labile compounds and a high degree of heterotrophic reworking.

The authors proposed a slower, less efficient export pathway, by which phytoplankton initially aggregate to smaller, slower-sinking detrital particles and then gradually form highly degraded, larger particles that sink to depth. Since smaller particles are respired more rapidly than larger particles, the proportion of phytoplankton-captured atmospheric CO₂ being stored in the deep ocean is likely reduced, particularly in regions dominated by smaller phytoplankton such as the Equatorial Pacific. This study clearly demonstrates the need for improved representation of a wider range of particle dynamics in models of the ocean’s biological pump.

Authors:
E. L. Cavan (University of Tasmania, previously University of Southampton)
S. Giering (National Oceanography Centre)
G. Wolff (University of Liverpool)
M. Trimmer (Queen Mary University London)
R. Sanders (National Oceanography Centre)

Improved method to identify and reduce uncertainties in marine carbon cycle predictions

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, September 26th, 2018

Improved method to identify and reduce uncertainties in marine carbon cycle predictions

How well do contemporary Earth System Models (ESMs) represent the dynamics of the modern day ocean? Often we question the fidelity of biological and chemical processes represented in these ESMs. The fact is representations of biogeochemical processes in models are plagued with some degree of uncertainties; therefore, identifying and reducing such deficiencies could advance ESM development and improve model predictions.

An overview of several models with respect to each of the variables, using absolute (left) and relative (right) scores to determine the degree of uncertainty in relation to referenced datasets.

A recent publication in Atmosphere described the ongoing efforts to develop the International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) package to evaluate ESM skill sets in simulating marine biogeochemical variables and processes. Model performances were scored based on how well they captured the distribution and variability contained in high-quality observational datasets. The authors highlighted systematic model–data benchmarking as a technique to identify ocean model deficiencies, which could provide a pathway to improving representations of sub-grid-scale parameterizations. They have scaled the absolute score from zero to unity, where the red color tends toward zero to quantify weaknesses in the skill set of a particular model in capturing values from the observational datasets. On the other side of the spectrum, the green color signifies considerable temporal and spatial overlap between the predicted and the observational values. The authors also present the standard score to show the relative scores within two standard deviations from the model mean. The benchmarking package was employed in the published study to assess marine biogeochemical process representations, with a focus on surface ocean concentrations and sea–air fluxes of dimethylsulfide (DMS). The production and emission of natural aerosols remain one of the major limitations in estimating global radiative forcing. Appropriate representation of aerosols in the marine boundary layer (MBL) is essential to reduce uncertainty and provide reliable information on offsets to global warming. Results show that model–data biases increased as DMS enters the MBL, with models over-predicting sea surface concentrations in the productive region of the eastern tropical Pacific by almost a factor of two and the sea–air fluxes by a factor of three. The associated uncertainties with oceanic carbon cycle processes may be additive or antagonistic; in any case, a constructive effort to disentangle the subtleties begins with an objective benchmarking effort, which is focused specifically on marine biogeochemical processes. The tool in development will ensure we satisfy some of the Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) benchmarking needs for the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).

Authors:
Oluwaseun Ogunro (ORNL)
Scott Elliott (LANL)
Oliver Wingenter (New Mexico Tech)
Clara Deal (University of Alaska)
Weiwei Fu (UC Irvine)
Nathan Collier (ORNL)
Forrest M. Hoffman (ORNL)

Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

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