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Adaptive emission pathways to stabilize global temperatures

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, May 11th, 2023

Around the world, countries have agreed in the Paris Agreement to limit global warming well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to reduce global warming to 1.5°C. However, large uncertainties remain about which emission pathways will allow us to reach this goal. A recent paper presents a new adaptive approach to create emission pathways and estimate the necessary emission reductions every five years, following the stocktake process of the Paris Agreement. This Adaptive Emissions Reduction Approach (AERA) is solely based on past warming rates, and emissions of CO₂ and non-CO₂ radiative agents, and explicitly does not rely on projections by Earth System Models. Updating the emission pathways every five years, circumvents uncertainties in the climate system and its transient response to cumulative emissions (TCRE). Testing with the Bern3D-LPX Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity shows that the approach works robustly across a wide range of TCREs, avoids large overshoots, and only small changes to the emission pathways are necessary every five years. This approach will allow policymakers to estimate emission pathways and create a base for international negotiations. Furthermore, it allows simulations with Earth System Models that all converge to the same temperature target to compare the climate at stabilized warming levels.

Figure caption: The three steps of the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach: 1) Estimating the past anthropogenic warming, 2) estimating the remaining emission budget, and 3) redistributing it over the future years.

Authors
Jens Terhaar (University of Bern, now Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Thomas L Frölicher (University of Bern)
Mathias T Aschwanden (University of Bern)
Pierre Friedlingstein (University of Exeter, Ecole Normale Superieure)
Fortunat Joos (University of Bern)

Twitter @JensTerhaar @froeltho @PFriedling @unibern @snsf_ch @4C_H2020 @ExeterUniMaths @Geosciences_ENS @IPSL_outreach

Drivers of recent Chesapeake Bay warming

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, August 26th, 2022

Coastal water temperatures have been increasing globally with more frequent marine heat waves threatening marine life and nearshore communities reliant upon these ecosystems. Often, this warming is assumed to be uniform in space and time; however, this is not the case in the Chesapeake Bay, where warming waters play a major role in exacerbating low oxygen levels and indirectly limiting the efficacy of nutrient reduction efforts on land.

New research published in the Journal of the American Water Resources Association combined long-term observations and a hydrodynamic model to quantify the temporal and spatial variability in warming Chesapeake Bay waters, and identify the contributions of different mechanisms driving these historical temperature changes. While winter temperatures have warmed by less than a half a degree over the past 30 years, summer temperatures have warmed by nearly 1.5 °C, with similar increases at the surface and bottom. In cooler months, the atmosphere was the dominant driver of warming throughout the majority of the Bay, but oceanic warming explained more than half of the increased summer temperatures in the southern Bay nearest the Atlantic.

Figure 1: Relative contribution of different factors to warm-month Chesapeake Bay temperature change over the period 1985-2015. Percentages correspond to average main channel contributions for each component.

Warming temperatures have potentially significant implications for the future size of the Chesapeake Bay dead zone, and the marine species directly affected by these low oxygen conditions. Better quantifying warming contributions from the atmosphere, ocean, sea level, and rivers will also help constrain regional temperature projections throughout the estuary. More accurate projections of future Bay temperatures can help coastal managers better understand the potential for invasive species expansion and endemic species loss, impacts to fisheries and aquaculture, and how changes to ecosystem processes may impact coastal communities dependent on a healthy Bay.

Authors:
Kyle E. Hinson (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary)
Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary)
Pierre St-Laurent (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary)
Fei Da (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary)
Raymond G. Najjar (The Pennsylvania State University)

What drives decadal changes in the Chesapeake Bay carbonate system?

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022

Understanding decadal changes in the coastal carbonate system (CO₂-system) is essential for predicting how the health of these waters is affected by anthropogenic drivers, such as changing atmospheric conditions and terrestrial inputs. However, studies that quantify the relative impacts of these drivers are lacking.

A recent study in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans identified the primary drivers of acidification in the Chesapeake Bay over the past three decades. The authors used a three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemistry model to quantify the relative impacts on the Bay CO₂-system from increases in atmospheric CO₂, temperature, oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations, terrestrial loadings of total alkalinity (TA) and DIC, as well as decreases in terrestrial nutrient inputs. Decadal changes in the surface CO₂-system in the Chesapeake Bay exhibit large spatial and seasonal variability due to the combination of influences from the land, ocean and atmosphere. In the upper Bay, increased riverine TA and DIC from the Susquehanna River have increased surface pH, with other drivers only contributing to decadal changes that are one to two orders of magnitude smaller. In the mid- and lower Bay, higher atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and reduced nutrient loading are the two most critical drivers and have nearly equally reduced surface pH in the summer. These decadal changes in surface pH show significant seasonal variability with the greatest magnitude generally aligning with the spring and summer shellfish production season (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Overall changes in modeled surface pH (ΔpH_all) due to all global and terrestrial drivers combined over the past 30 years (i.e., 2015–2019 relative to 1985–1989). ΔpH_all includes changes in surface pH due to increased atmospheric CO2, increased atmospheric thermal forcing, increased oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations, decreased riverine nitrate concentrations, decreased riverine organic nitrogen concentrations, and increased riverine total alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations.

These results indicate that a number of global and terrestrial drivers play crucial roles in coastal acidification. The combined effects of the examined drivers suggest that calcifying organisms in coastal surface waters are likely facing faster decreasing rates of pH than those in open ocean ecosystems. Decreases in surface pH associated with nutrient reductions highlight that the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem is returning to a more natural condition, e.g., a condition when anthropogenic nutrient input from the watershed was lower. However, increased atmospheric CO₂ is simultaneously accelerating the rate of change in pH, exerting increased stress on estuarine calcifying organisms. For ecosystems such as the Chesapeake Bay where nutrient loading is already being managed, controlling the emissions of anthropogenic CO₂ globally becomes increasingly important to decelerate the rate of acidification and to relieve the stress on estuarine calcifying organisms. Future observational and modeling studies are needed to further investigate how the decadal trends in the Chesapeake Bay CO₂-system may vary with depth. These efforts will improve our current understanding of long-term change in coastal carbonate systems and their impacts on the shellfish industry.

Authors:
Fei Da (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary, USA)
Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary, USA)
Pierre St-Laurent (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary, USA)
Elizabeth H. Shadwick (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Australia)
Raymond G. Najjar (The Pennsylvania State University, USA)
Kyle E. Hinson (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary, USA)

Predators Set Range for the Ocean’s Most Abundant Phytoplankton

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, April 1st, 2022

Prochlorococcus is the world’s smallest phytoplankton (microscopic plant-like organisms) and the most numerous, with more than ten septillion individuals. This tiny plankton lives ubiquitously in warm, blue, tropical waters but is conspicuously absent in more polar regions. The prevailing theory was the cold: Prochlorococcus doesn’t grow at low temperatures. In a recent paper, the authors argue ecological control, in particular, predation by zooplankton. Cold polar waters are greener because they contain more nutrients, leading to more life and more organic matter production. This production feeds more and larger heterotrophic bacteria, who then feed larger predators—specifically the same zooplankton that consume Prochlorococcus. If the shared zooplankton increases enough, it will consume Prochlorococus faster than it can grow, causing the species to collapse at higher latitudes. These results show that an understanding of both ecology and temperature is required to predict how these ecosystems will shift in a warming ocean.

Figure 1: Surface populations of Prochlorococcus collapse (dashed lines) moving northward from Hawaii as seen in transects (transect line shown in red on map, lower left) from cruises in April 2016 (black dots) and September 2017 (green triangles). This collapse of the Prochlorococcus emerges in dynamical computer models (lower right, color indicates Prochlorococcus biomass in mgC/m3) when heterotrophic bacteria and Prochlorococcus share a grazer (top schematic). Increased organic production heading poleward first increases the heterotrophic bacterial population, increasing the shared zooplankton population which eventually consumes Prochlorococcus faster than it can grow (dashed contour).

Authors
Christopher L. Follett (MIT)
Stephanie Dutkiewicz (MIT)
François Ribalet (UW)
Emily Zakem (USC)
David Caron (USC)
E. Virginia Armbrust (UW)
Michael J. Follows (MIT)

Wildfire impacts on coastal ocean phytoplankton

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, February 24th, 2021

Wildfire frequency, size, and destructiveness has increased over the last two decades, particularly in coastal regions such as Australia, Brazil, and the western United States. While the impact of fire on land, plants, and people is well documented, very few studies have been able to evaluate the impact of fires on ocean ecosystems. A serendipitously planned research cruise one week after the Thomas Fire broke out in California in December 2017 allowed the authors of this study and their colleagues to sample the adjacent Santa Barbara Channel during this devastating extreme fire event.

In a recent paper published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, the authors describe the phytoplankton community in the Santa Barbara Channel during the Thomas Fire. Phytoplankton community composition was described using a combination of images of phytoplankton from the Imaging FlowCytobot (McLane Labs) and phytoplankton pigments. Dinoflagellates were the dominant phytoplankton group in the surface ocean during the Thomas Fire, according to both methods (Figure 1).

Figure 1. (A) The fraction of total particle volume imaged by the Imaging FlowCytobot (IFCB) comprised of phytoplankton (green) and detritus (brown). Example IFCB images of ash (counted as part of detritus) particles are outlined in brown. (B) The phytoplankton fraction is then further divided by taxonomy, showing the abundance of nano-sized phytoplankton and especially dinoflagellates during the week of sampling. Example IFCB images of Gonyaulax (outlined in dark green), Prorocentrum (outlined in light green), and Umbilicosphaera (outlined in purple) cells are also shown.

While this study was not able to demonstrate a causal relationship between the Thomas Fire and the presence of dinoflagellates, this result is quite different from previous winters in the Santa Barbara Channel, when picophytoplankton and diatoms typically dominate the winter community. The incidence of dinoflagellates in the Santa Barbara Channel in December 2017 was correlated with the warmer-than-average water temperature during this study, which matched observations from other areas along the Central California coast that winter.

At the time this study was conducted, the Thomas Fire was the largest wildfire in California history. Since then, California fires have increased in danger, destruction, and human mortality; the Mendocino Fire complex (summer 2018) and five separate wildfires in summer 2020 exceeded the impacts of the Thomas Fire. With wildfire severity and frequency increasing not only in California but in coastal regions worldwide, this study gives an important first look at the impact of wildfire smoke and ash on oceanic primary productivity and community composition.

Authors:
Sasha Kramer (University of California Santa Barbara)
Kelsey Bisson (Oregon State University)
Alexis Fischer (University of California Santa Cruz)

Water clarity impacts temperature and biogeochemistry in Chesapeake Bay

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, December 3rd, 2020

Estuarine water clarity is determined by suspended materials in the water, including colored dissolved organic matter, phytoplankton, sediment, and detritus. These constituents directly affect temperature because when water is opaque, sunlight heats only the shallowest layers near the surface, but when water is clear, sunlight can penetrate deeper, warming the waters below the surface. Despite the importance of accurately predicting temperature variability, many numerical modeling studies do not adequately parameterize this fundamental relationship between water clarity and temperature.

In a recent study published in Estuaries and Coasts, the authors quantified the impact of a more realistic representation of water clarity in a hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model of the Chesapeake Bay by comparing two simulations: (1) water clarity is constant in space and time for the calculation of solar heating vs. (2) water clarity varies with modeled concentrations of light-attenuating materials. In the variable water clarity simulation (2), the water is more opaque, particularly in the northern region of the Bay. During the spring and summer months, the lower water clarity in the northern Bay is associated with warmer surface temperatures and colder bottom temperatures. Warmer surface temperatures encourage phytoplankton growth and nutrient uptake near the head of the Bay, thus fewer nutrients are transported downstream. These conditions are exacerbated during high-river flow years, when differences in temperature, nutrients, phytoplankton, and zooplankton extend further seaward.

Figure 1: Top row: Difference in the light attenuation coefficient for shortwave heating, kh[m-1] (variable minus constant light attenuation simulation). June, July, and August average for (A) 2001, (B) average of 2001-2005, and (C) 2003; difference in bottom temperatures [oC] (variable minus constant). Bottom row: Difference in June, July, and August average bottom temperature for (D) 2001, (E) average of 2001-2005, and (F) 2003. Data for 2001 are representative of low river discharge, and 2003 are representative high river discharge years.

This work demonstrates that a constant light attenuation scheme for heating calculations in coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical models underestimates temperature variability, both temporally and spatially. This is an important finding for researchers who use models to predict future temperature variability and associated impacts on biogeochemistry and species habitability.

Authors:
Grace E. Kim (NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center)
Pierre St-Laurent (VIMS, William & Mary)
Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs (VIMS, William & Mary)
Antonio Mannino (NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center)

Volcanic carbon dioxide drove ancient global warming event

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, March 29th, 2018

A study recently published in Nature suggests that an extreme global warming event 56 million years ago known as the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was driven by massive CO₂ emissions from volcanoes during the formation of the North Atlantic Ocean. Using a combination of new geochemical measurements and novel global climate modelling, the study revealed that atmospheric CO₂ more than doubled in less than 25,000 years during the PETM.

The PETM lasted ~150,000 years and is the most rapid and extreme natural global warming event of the last 66 million years. During the PETM, global temperatures increased by at least 5^°C, comparable to temperatures projected in the next century and beyond. While it has long been suggested that the PETM event was caused by the injection of carbon into the ocean and atmosphere, the source and total amount of carbon, as well as the underlying mechanism have thus far remained elusive. The PETM roughly coincided with the formation of massive flood basalts resulting from of a series of eruptions that occurred as Greenland and North America started separating from Europe, thereby creating the North Atlantic Ocean. What was missing is evidence linking the volcanic activity to the carbon release and warming that marks the PETM.

To identify the source of carbon, the authors measured changes in the balance of isotopes of the element boron in ancient sediment-bound marine fossils called foraminifera to generate a new record of ocean pH throughout the PETM. Ocean pH tells us about the amount of carbon absorbed by ancient seawater, but we can get even more information by also considering changes in the isotopes of carbon, which provide information about the carbon source. When forced with these ocean pH and carbon isotope data, a numerical global climate model implicates large-scale volcanism associated with the opening of the North Atlantic as the primary driver of the PETM.

North Atlantic microfossil-derived isotope records from extinct planktonic foraminiferal species M. subbotinae relative to the onset of the PETM carbon isotope excursion (CIE). The negative trend in carbon isotope composition (A) during the carbon emission phase is accompanied by decreasing pH (decreasing δ¹¹B, panel B) and increasing temperature (decreasing δ¹⁸O, panel C). Panels D and E zoom in on the PETM CIE, showing microfossil δ¹³C (D) and δ¹¹B-based pH (E) reconstructions. Also included in E are data from Penman et al. (2014) on their original age model, with recalculated (lab-based) pH values.

These new results suggest that the PETM was associated with a total input of >12,000 petagrams of carbon from a predominantly volcanic source. This is a vast amount of carbon—30 times larger than all of the fossil fuels burned to date and equivalent to all current conventional and unconventional fossil fuel reserves. In the following Earth System Model simulations, it resulted in the concentration of atmospheric CO₂ increasing from ~850 parts per million to >2000 ppm. The Earth’s mantle contains more than enough carbon to explain this dramatic rise, and it would have been released as magma poured from volcanic rifts at the Earth’s surface.

How the ancient Earth system responded to this carbon injection at the PETM can tell us a great deal about how it might respond in the future to man-made climate change. Earth’s warming at the PETM was about what we would expect given the CO₂ emitted and what we know about the sensitivity of the climate system based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. However, the rate of carbon addition during the PETM was about twenty times slower than today’s human-made carbon emissions.

In the model outputs, carbon cycle feedbacks such as methane release from gas hydrates—once the favoured explanation of the PETM—did not play a major role in driving the event. Additionally, one unexpected result was that enhanced organic matter burial was important in ultimately drawing down the released carbon out of the atmosphere and ocean and thereby accelerating the recovery of the Earth system.

Authors:
Marcus Gutjahr (National Oceanography Centre Southamption, GEOMAR)
Andy Ridgwell (Bristol University, University of California Riverside)
Philip F. Sexton (The Open University, UK)
Eleni Anagnostou (National Oceanography Centre Southamption)
Paul N. Pearson (Cardiff University)
Heiko Pälike (University of Bremen)
Richard D. Norris (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
Ellen Thomas (Yale University, Wesleyan University)
Gavin L. Foster (National Oceanography Centre Southamption)

Increased temperatures suggest reduced capacity for carbon

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, January 18th, 2018

The ocean’s biological pump works to draw down atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) by exporting carbon from the surface ocean. This process is less efficient at higher temperatures, implying a possible climate feedback. Recent work by Cael et al. provides an explanation of why this feedback occurs and an estimate of its severity.

In a highly simplified view, carbon export depends on the balance between two temperature-dependent processes: 1) The autotrophic production and 2) the heterotrophic respiration of organic carbon. Cael and Follows (Geophysical Research Letters 2016) recently developed a mechanistic model based on established temperature dependencies for photosynthesis and respiration to explore feedbacks between export efficiency and climate. Heterotrophic growth rates increase more so than phototrophic rates with increasing temperature, which suggests that at higher temperatures, community respiration will increase relative to production, thereby decreasing export efficiency. Although simplistic, the model captures the temperature dependence of export efficiency observations.

Figure: Schematic of the mechanism on which the Cael and Follows (2016) model is based. (a) Photosynthesis (dark grey) and respiration (light grey) respond to temperature differently, yielding (b) a decline in export efficiency at higher temperatures.

More recently, Cael, Bisson, and Follows (Limnology and Oceanography 2017) applied this model to sea surface temperature records and estimated a ~1.5% decline in globally-averaged export efficiency over the past three decades of increasing ocean temperatures as a result of this metabolic mechanism. This ~1.5% decline is equivalent to a reduced ocean sequestration of approximately 100 million fewer tons of carbon annually, comparable to the annual carbon emissions of the United Kingdom. The model provides a framework in which to consider the relationship between climate and ocean carbon export that might also elucidate large-scale (e.g., glacial-interglacial) atmospheric CO₂ changes of the past.

Authors:
B. B. Cael (MIT/WHOI)
Kelsey Bisson (UCSB)
Mick Follows (MIT)

WBC Series: Decadal variability of the Kuroshio Extension system and its impact on subtropical mode water formation

Posted by mmaheigan

· Friday, November 10th, 2017

Bo Qiu¹, Eitarou Oka², Stuart P. Bishop³, Shuiming Chen¹, Andrea J. Fassbender⁴

1. University of Hawaii at Manoa
2. The University of Tokyo
3. North Carolina State University
4. Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute

After separating from the Japanese coast at 36°N, 141°E, the Kuroshio enters the open basin of the North Pacific, where it is renamed the Kuroshio Extension (KE). Free from the constraint of coastal boundaries, the KE has been observed to be an eastward-flowing inertial jet accompanied by large-amplitude meanders and energetic pinched-off eddies (see Qiu 2002 and Kelly et al. 2010 for comprehensive reviews). Compared to its upstream counterpart south of Japan, the Kuroshio, the KE is accompanied by a stronger southern recirculation gyre that increases the KE’s eastward volume transport to more than twice the maximum Sverdrup transport (~ 60Sv) in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean (Wijffels et al. 1998). This has two important consequences. Dynamically, the increased transport enhances the nonlinearity of the KE jet, rendering the region surrounding the KE jet to have the highest mesoscale activity level in the Pacific basin. Thermodynamically, the enhanced KE jet brings a significant amount of tropical-origin warm water to the mid-latitude ocean to be in direct contact with cold, dry air blowing off the Eurasian continent. This results in significant wintertime heat loss from the ocean to atmosphere surrounding the Kuroshio/KE paths, contributing to the formation of North Pacific subtropical mode water (STMW; see Hanawa and Talley (2001) and Oka and Qiu (2012) for comprehensive reviews).

Figure 1. Yearly paths of the Kuroshio and KE plotted every 14 days using satellite SSH data (updated based on Qiu and Chen 2005). KE was in stable state in 1993–94, 2002–05, and 2010–15, and unstable state in 1995-2001, 2006–09, and 2016, respectively.

Although the ocean is known to be a turbulent medium, variations in both the level of mesoscale eddy activity and the formation rate of STMW in the KE region are by no means random on interannual and longer timescales. One important feature emerging from recent satellite altimeter measurements and eddy-resolving ocean model simulations is that the KE system exhibits clearly defined decadal modulations between a stable and an unstable dynamical state (e.g., Qiu & Chen 2005, 2010; Taguchi et al. 2007; Qiu et al. 2007; Cebollas et al. 2009; Sugimoto and Hanawa 2009; Sasaki et al. 2013; Pierini 2014; Bishop et al. 2015). As shown in Figure 1, the KE paths were relatively stable in 1993–95, 2002–05, and 2010–15. In contrast, spatially convoluted paths prevailed during 1996–2001 and 2006–09. When the KE jet is in a stable dynamical state, satellite altimeter data further reveal that its eastward transport and latitudinal position tend to increase and migrate northward, its southern recirculation gyre tends to strengthen, and the regional eddy kinetic energy level tends to decrease. The reverse is true when the KE jet switches to an unstable dynamical state. In fact, the time-varying dynamical state of the KE system can be well represented by the KE index, defined by the average of the variance-normalized time series of the southern recirculation gyre intensity, the KE jet intensity, its latitudinal position, and the negative of its path length (Qiu et al. 2014). Figure 2a shows the KE index time series in the satellite altimetry period of 1993–present; here, a positive KE index indicates a stable dynamical state and a negative KE index, an unstable dynamical state. From Figure 2a, it is easy to discern the dominance of the decadal oscillations between the two dynamical states of the KE system.

Figure 2. (a) Time series of the KE index from 1993‑present; available at http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/oceanography/bo/KE_index.asc. (b) Year-mean SSH maps when the KE is in stable (2004 and 2011) versus unstable (1997 and 2008) states. (c) SSH anomalies along the zonal band of 32°-34°N from satellite altimetry measurements. (d) Time series of the PDO index from 1989-present; available at http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.

Transitions between the KE’s two dynamical states are caused by the basin-scale wind stress curl forcing in the eastern North Pacific related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Specifically, when the central North Pacific wind stress curl anomalies are positive during the positive PDO phase (see Figure 2d), enhanced Ekman flux divergence generates negative local sea surface height (SSH) anomalies in 170°–150°W along the southern recirculation gyre latitude of 32°–34°N. As these wind-induced negative SSH anomalies propagate westward as baroclinic Rossby waves into the KE region after a delay of 3–4 years (Figure 2c), they weaken the zonal KE jet, leading to an unstable (i.e., negative index) state of the KE system with a reduced recirculation gyre and an active eddy kinetic energy field (Figure 2b). Negative anomalous wind stress curl forcing during the negative PDO phase, on the other hand, generates positive SSH anomalies through the Ekman flux convergence in the eastern North Pacific. After propagating into the KE region in the west, these anomalies stabilize the KE system by increasing the KE transport and by shifting its position northward, leading to a positive index state.

The dynamical state of the KE system exerts a tremendous influence upon the STMW that forms largely along the paths of the Kuroshio/KE jet and inside of its southern recirculation gyre (e.g., Suga et al. 2004; Qiu et al. 2006; Oka 2009). Figure 3a shows the monthly time series of temperature profile, constructed by averaging available Argo and XBT/CTD/XCTD data inside the KE southern recirculation gyre (see Qiu and Chen 2006 for details on the constructing method). The black line in the plot denotes the base of the mixed layer, defined as where the water temperature drops by 0.5°C from the sea surface temperature. Based on the temperature profiles, Figure 3b shows the monthly time series of potential vorticity. STMW in Figure 3b is characterized by water columns with potential vorticity of less than 2.0 x 10^-10 m^-1s^-1 beneath the mixed layer. From Figure 3, it is clear that both the late winter mixed layer depth and the low-potential vorticity STMW layer underwent significant decadal changes over the past 25 years. Specifically, deep mixed layer and pronounced low-potential vorticity STMW were detected in 1993–95, 2001–05, and 2010–15, and these years corresponded roughly to the periods when the KE index was in the positive phase (cf. Figure 2a).

Figure 3. Monthly time series of (a) temperature (°C) and (b) potential vorticity (10-10 m-1 s-1) averaged in the KE’s southern recirculation gyre. The thick black and white lines in (a) and (b) denote the base of the mixed layer, defined as where the temperature drops by 0.5°C from the surface value. Red pluses (at the top of each panel) indicate the individual temperature profiles used in constructing the monthly T(z, t) profiles. The potential vorticity, Q(z,t) = fα∂T(z,t)/∂z, where f is the Coriolis parameter and α the thermal expansion coefficient.

The close connection between the dynamical state of the KE system and the STMW formation has been detected by many recent studies based on different observational data sources and analysis approaches (Qiu and Chen 2006; Sugimoto and Hanawa 2010; Rainville et al. 2014; Bishop and Watts 2014; Oka et al. 2012; 2015; Cerovecki and Giglio 2016). Physically, this connection can be understood as follows. When the KE is in an unstable state (or a negative KE index phase), high-regional eddy variability infuses high-potential vorticity KE and subarctic-gyre water into the southern recirculation gyre, increasing the upper-ocean stratification and hindering the development of deep winter mixed layer and formation of STMW. A stable KE path with suppressed eddy variability (in the positive KE index phase), on the other hand, favors the maintenance of a weak stratification in the recirculation gyre, leading to the formation of a deep winter mixed layer and thick STMW.

Since the STMW is renewed each winter, due to combined net surface heat flux and wind stress forcing that modulate on interannual timescales, a question arising naturally is the timescale on which the dynamical state change of the KE system is able to alter the upper ocean stratification and potential vorticity inside the recirculation gyre. If the influence of the KE dynamical state acts on interannual timescales, one may expect a stronger control on the STMW variability by the wintertime atmospheric condition (e.g., Suga and Hanawa 1995; Davis et al. 2011). Intensive observations from the Kuroshio Extension System Study (KESS) program, spanning the period from April 2004 to July 2006, captured the 2004–05 transition of the KE system from a stable to an unstable state. The combined measurements by profiling Argo floats, moored current meter, current and pressure inverted echo sounder (CPIES), and the Kuroshio Extension Observatory (KEO) surface mooring revealed that the KE dynamical state change was able to change the STMW properties both significantly in amplitude and effectively in time (Qiu et al. 2007; Bishop 2013; Cronin et al. 2013; Bishop and Watts 2014). Relative to 2004, the low-potential vorticity signal in the core of STMW was diminished by one-half in 2005, and this weakening of STMW’s intensity occurred within a period of less than seven months. These significant and rapid responses of STMW to the KE dynamical state change suggests that the variability in STMW formation is more sensitive to the dynamical state of the KE than to interannual variations in overlying atmospheric conditions over the past 25 years.

The decadal variability of STMW in the KE’s southern recirculation gyre is able to affect the water property distributions in the entire western part of the North Pacific subtropical gyre (Oka et al. 2015). Measurements by Argo profiling floats during 2005–14 revealed that the volume and spatial extent of STMW decreased (increased) in 2006–09 (after 2010) during the unstable (stable) KE period in its formation region north of ~28°N, as well as in the southern, downstream regions with a time lag of 1-2 years. Such decadal subduction variability affects not only physical but also biogeochemical structures in the downstream, interior subtropical gyre. Shipboard observations at 25°N and along the 137°E repeat hydrographic section of the Japan Meteorological Agency exhibited that, after 2010, enhanced subduction of STMW consistently increased dissolved oxygen, pH, and aragonite saturation state and decreased potential vorticity, apparent oxygen utilization, nitrate, and dissolved inorganic carbon. Changes in dissolved inorganic carbon, pH, and aragonite saturation state were opposite their long-term trends.

KE State and the Ocean Carbon Cycle

Western boundary current (WBC) regions display the largest magnitude air-to-sea carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes of anywhere in the global ocean. STMW formation processes are thought to account for a majority of the anthropogenic CO₂ sequestration that occurs outside of the polar, deep water formation regions (Sabine et al. 2004; Khatiwala et al. 2009). Once subducted and advected away from the formation region, mode waters often remain out of contact with the atmosphere on timescales of decades to hundreds of years, making them short-term carbon silos relative to the abyssal carbon storage reservoirs. One of the physical impacts on carbon uptake via air-sea CO₂flux is due to the temperature dependence of the solubility of pCO₂ in the surface waters. Cooler surface waters during the wintertime months reduce the oceanic pCO₂and subsequently enhance the CO₂flux into the ocean. This carbon uptake corresponds with the timing of peak STMW formation.

As mentioned above, the formation of STMW is modulated by the dynamic states of the KE, with less STMW forming during unstable states and more during stable states. To complicate matters, more enhanced levels of surface chlorophyll (Chla) have also been observed from satellite ocean color during unstable states (Lin et al. 2014), which points to the potential importance of biophysical interactions on carbon uptake. Elevated levels of Chla can further modify the pCO₂ of surface waters and enhance carbon export at depth from sinking of particulate organic matter following an individual bloom. Given that submesoscale processes result from deep wintertime mixed layers and from the presence of the larger mesoscale lateral shear and strain fields (McWilliams 2016), it is expected that submesoscale processes are also important in STMW formation during unstable states of the KE. An open question in the research community is to what extent do elevated levels of mesoscale and submesoscale eddy activity modulate STMW formation and carbon uptake during unstable states of the KE? With large variations in STMW formation occurring in concert with decadal variability in the mesoscale eddy field, it is possible that submesoscale processes may impact STMW formation through restratification of the mixed layer within density classes encompassing STMW and timing of the spring bloom. These mesoscale and submesoscale processes may then also impact the uptake of CO₂ in the North Pacific on interannual to decadal timescales.

References

Bishop, S. P., 2013: Divergent eddy heat fluxes in the Kuroshio Extension at 143°-149°E. Part II: Spatiotemporal variability. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 43, 2416-2431, doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-13-061.1.

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Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

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