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Improved method to identify and reduce uncertainties in marine carbon cycle predictions

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, September 26th, 2018

Improved method to identify and reduce uncertainties in marine carbon cycle predictions

How well do contemporary Earth System Models (ESMs) represent the dynamics of the modern day ocean? Often we question the fidelity of biological and chemical processes represented in these ESMs. The fact is representations of biogeochemical processes in models are plagued with some degree of uncertainties; therefore, identifying and reducing such deficiencies could advance ESM development and improve model predictions.

An overview of several models with respect to each of the variables, using absolute (left) and relative (right) scores to determine the degree of uncertainty in relation to referenced datasets.

A recent publication in Atmosphere described the ongoing efforts to develop the International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) package to evaluate ESM skill sets in simulating marine biogeochemical variables and processes. Model performances were scored based on how well they captured the distribution and variability contained in high-quality observational datasets. The authors highlighted systematic model–data benchmarking as a technique to identify ocean model deficiencies, which could provide a pathway to improving representations of sub-grid-scale parameterizations. They have scaled the absolute score from zero to unity, where the red color tends toward zero to quantify weaknesses in the skill set of a particular model in capturing values from the observational datasets. On the other side of the spectrum, the green color signifies considerable temporal and spatial overlap between the predicted and the observational values. The authors also present the standard score to show the relative scores within two standard deviations from the model mean. The benchmarking package was employed in the published study to assess marine biogeochemical process representations, with a focus on surface ocean concentrations and sea–air fluxes of dimethylsulfide (DMS). The production and emission of natural aerosols remain one of the major limitations in estimating global radiative forcing. Appropriate representation of aerosols in the marine boundary layer (MBL) is essential to reduce uncertainty and provide reliable information on offsets to global warming. Results show that model–data biases increased as DMS enters the MBL, with models over-predicting sea surface concentrations in the productive region of the eastern tropical Pacific by almost a factor of two and the sea–air fluxes by a factor of three. The associated uncertainties with oceanic carbon cycle processes may be additive or antagonistic; in any case, a constructive effort to disentangle the subtleties begins with an objective benchmarking effort, which is focused specifically on marine biogeochemical processes. The tool in development will ensure we satisfy some of the Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) benchmarking needs for the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).

Authors:
Oluwaseun Ogunro (ORNL)
Scott Elliott (LANL)
Oliver Wingenter (New Mexico Tech)
Clara Deal (University of Alaska)
Weiwei Fu (UC Irvine)
Nathan Collier (ORNL)
Forrest M. Hoffman (ORNL)

When it comes to carbon export, the mesoscale matters

Posted by hbenway

· Tuesday, September 11th, 2018

Figure 1. Difference in annual mean carbon export (ΔPOC flux) between a high resolution (0.1º, Hi-res) and standard resolution (1º, Analog) global climate model simulation using the CESM model. Highlighted regions show areas where vertical (purple boxes) and horizontal (red boxes) changes in nutrient transport drive increases or decreases in export, respectively.

Most Earth System models (ESMs) that are used to study global climate and the carbon cycle do not resolve the most energetic scales in the ocean, the mesoscale (10-100 km), encompassing eddies, coastal jets, and other dynamic features strongly affecting nutrient delivery, productivity, and carbon export. This prompts the question: What are we missing in climate models by not resolving the mesoscale?

Authors of a recent study published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles conducted a comparative analysis of the importance of mesoscale features in biological production and associated carbon export using standard resolution (1°) and mesoscale-resolving (0.1°) ESM simulations. The mesoscale-resolving ESM yielded only a ~2% reduction in globally integrated export production relative to the standard resolution ESM. However, a closer look at the local processes driving export in different basins revealed much larger, compensating differences (Fig. 1). For example, in regions where biological production is driven by natural iron fertilization from shelf sediment sources (Fig. 2), improved representation of coastal jets in the higher-resolution ESM reduces the cross-shelf iron delivery that fuels production (red boxes in Fig. 1). Resolving mesoscale turbulence further reduces the spatial extent of blooms and associated export, yielding a more patchy distribution than in the coarse resolution models. Together, these processes lead to a reduction in export in the Argentine Basin, one of the most productive regions on the planet, of locally up to 50%. In contrast, resolving the mesoscale results in enhanced export production in the Subantarctic (purple box in Fig. 1), where the mesoscale model resolves deeper, narrower mixed layer depths that support stronger nutrient entrainment, in turn enhancing local productivity and export.

Figure 2. An iron-driven plankton bloom structured by mesoscale features in the South Atlantic. Left is simulated dissolved iron (Fe), the limiting nutrient for this region, and right is iron in all phytoplankton classes, a proxy for biomass (phytoFe, shown in log10 scale), on January 11, the height of the bloom. Plankton blooms in the Subantarctic Atlantic are fueled by horizontal iron transport off coastal and island shelves and vertical injection from seamounts, whereas farther south in the Southern Ocean, winter vertical mixing is the primary driver of iron delivery. Mesoscale circulation, largely an unstructured mix of interacting jets and vortices, strongly affects the location and timing of carbon production and export. Click here for an animation.

In regions with very short productivity seasons like the North Pacific and Subantarctic, internally generated mesoscale variability (captured in the higher resolution ESM) yields significant interannual variation in local carbon export. In these regions, a few eddies, filaments or more amorphous mesoscale features can structure the entire production and export pattern for the short bloom season. These findings document the importance of resolving mesoscale features in ESMs to more accurately quantify carbon export, and the different roles mesoscale variability can play in different oceanographic settings.

Determining how to best sample these mesoscale turbulence-dominated blooms and scale up these measurements to regional and longer time means, is an outstanding joint challenge for modelers and observationalists. A key piece is obtaining the high temporal and spatial resolution data sets needed for validating modeled carbon export in bloom regions strongly impacted by mesoscale dynamics, which represent a large portion of the global carbon export.

Authors
Cheryl Harrison (NCAR, University of Colorado Boulder)
Matthew Long (NCAR)
Nicole Lovenduski (University of Colorado Boulder)
J. Keith Moore (University of California Irvine)

Ocean’s heat cycle shows that atmospheric carbon may be headed elsewhere

Posted by hbenway

· Thursday, August 16th, 2018

Studies over the past 25 years have supported the existence of a large net land biosphere CO₂ sink of 0.5–2 PgC yr^-1. Significant uncertainties remain, however, regarding the long-term partitioning between northern, tropical, and southern land sinks, in part connected to the uncertain ocean carbon sink. These uncertainties limit our capacity to predict earth system response to anthropogenic changes and design effective mitigation strategies.

Land sinks from atmospheric inversion (1990-2010 average) with two different ocean/river fluxes: (top) previous ocean inversion-based carbon fluxes; and (bottom) updated pCO2-based air-sea flux with a scaled-up river flux of 0.78 PgC /yr.

In a recent study published in Nature Geoscience, Resplandy et al. (2018) used models and field observations to demonstrate that the world’s oceans transport heat between the northern and southern hemispheres in the same way that carbon is transported. The transport of heat, however, is easier to observe. By tracking this heat, they showed that the Southern Ocean — while still a substantial carbon sink —may not take up as much carbon as previously thought, and that ocean currents might transport 20 to 100% more carbon from the northern to the southern hemisphere. To maintain this additional transport of carbon, they showed that the amount of carbon entering the ocean from rivers may be as much as 70% higher than estimated in previous global carbon budget studies. These changes in the ocean and river carbon transport imply that up to 40% of the world’s atmospheric carbon absorbed by land ecosystems needs to be reallocated from existing estimates.

Authors
L. Resplandy, Princeton University
Ralph Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography/ UCSD
Christian Rödenbeck, Max Planck Institute
Briton Stephens, NCAR
Matthew Long, NCAR
Samar Khatiwala, University of Oxford
Keith Rodgers, Princeton University
Laurent Bopp, ENS Paris
Pieter Tans, NOAA’s ESRL

Shelf-wide pCO2 increase across the South Atlantic Bight

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, August 2nd, 2018

Relative to their surface area, coastal regions represent some of the largest carbon fluxes in the global ocean, driven by numerous physical, chemical and biological processes. Coastal systems also experience human impacts that affect carbon cycling, which has large socioeconomic implications. The highly dynamic nature of these systems necessitates observing approaches and numerical methods that can both capture high-frequency variability and delineate long-term trends.

Figure 1: The South Atlantic Bight (SAB) was divided into four sections using isobaths: the coastal zone (0 to 15 m), the inner shelf (15 to 30 m), the middle shelf (30 to 60 m), and the outer shelf (60 m and beyond). The X’s indicate the locations of the Gray’s Reef mooring (southern X) and the Edisto mooring (northern X).

In two recent studies using mooring- and ship-based ocean CO₂ system data, authors observed that pCO₂ is increasing from the coastal zone to the outer shelf of the South Atlantic Bight at rates greater than the global average oceanic and atmospheric increase (~1.8 µatm y^-1). In recent publications in Continental Shelf Research and JGR-Oceans, the authors analyzed pCO₂ data from 46 cruises (1991-2016) using a novel linear regression technique to remove the seasonal signal, revealing an increase in pCO₂ of 3.0-3.7 µatm y^-1on the outer and inner shelf, respectively. Using a Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) approach for trend analysis, authors observed that the rates of increase were slightly higher than the deseasonalization technique, yielding pCO₂ increases of 3.3 to 4.5 µatm y^-1 on the outer and inner shelf, respectively. The reported pCO₂ increases result in potential pH decreases of -0.003 to -0.004 units y^-1.

Figure 2: The time series of fCO2 in the four regions of the SAB (cruise observations) and from the Gray’s Reef mooring on the inner shelf indicate an increase across the shelf. These data are the observed values, however, the trend lines for each time series are calculated using deseasonalized values using the reference year method.

Analysis of the pCO₂ time-series from the Gray’s Reef mooring (using a NOAA Moored Autonomous pCO₂ system from July 2006 -July 2015) yielded a rate of increase (3.5 ± 0.9 µatm y^-1) that was comparable to the cruise data on the inner shelf (3.7 ± 2.2 and 4.5 ± 0.6 µatm y^-1, linear and GAMM methods, respectively). Validation data collected at the mooring suggest that underway data from cruises and the moored data are comparable. Neither thermal processes nor atmospheric dissolution (the primary driver of oceanic acidification) can explain the observed pCO₂ increase and concurrent pH decrease across the shelf. Unlike the middle and outer shelves, where an increase in SST could account for up to 1.1 µatm y^-1 of the observed pCO₂ trend, there is no thermal influence in the coastal zone and inner shelf. While 1.8 µatm y^-1 could be attributed to the global average atmospheric increase, the remainder is likely due to transport from coastal marshes and in situ biological processes. As the authors have shown, the increasing coastal and oceanic trend in pCO₂ can lead to a decrease in pH, especially if there is no increase in buffering capacity. More acidic waters can have a long term affect on coastal ecosystem services and biota.

Also see Eos Editor’s Vox on this research by Peter Brewer https://eos.org/editors-vox/coastal-ocean-warming-adds-to-co2-burden

Authors:

Multidecadal fCO2 Increase Along the United States Southeast Coastal Margin (JGR-Oceans)
Janet J. Reimer (University of Delaware)
Hongjie Wang (Texas A &M University – Corpus Christi)
Rodrigo Vargas (University of Delaware)
Wei-Jun Cai (University of Delaware)

And

Time series pCO2 at a coastal mooring: Internal consistency, seasonal cycles, and interannual variability (Continental Shelf Research)
Janet J. Reimer (University of Delaware)
Wei-Jun Cai (University of Delaware; University of Georgia)
Liang Xue (University of Delaware; First Institute of Oceanography, China)
Rodrigo Vargas (University of Delaware)
Scott Noakes (University of Georgia)
Xinping Hu (Texas A &M University – Corpus Christi)
Sergio R. Signorini (Science Applications International Corporation)
Jeremy T. Mathis (NOAA Arctic Research Program)
Richard A. Feely (NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)
Adrienne J. Sutton (NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory; University of Washington)
Christopher Sabine (University of Hawaii Manoa)
Sylvia Musielewicz (NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory; University of Washington)
Baoshan Chen (University of Delaware; University of Georgia)
Rik Wanninkhof (NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory)

Marine Snowfall at the Equator

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, July 19th, 2018

The continual flow of organic particles such as dead organisms and fecal material towards the deep sea is called “marine snow,” and it plays an important role in the ocean carbon cycle and climate-related processes. This snowfall is most intense where high primary production can be observed near the surface. This is the case along the equator in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. However, it is not well known how particles are distributed at depth and which processes influence this distribution. A recent study published in Nature Geoscience involved the use of high-resolution particle density data using the Underwater Vision Profiler (UVP) from the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific Oceans down to a depth of 5,000 meters, revealing that several previously accepted ideas on the downward flux of particles into the deep sea should be revisited.

Figure 1. The Underwater Vision Profiler (UVP) during a trial in the Kiel Fjord. The UVP provided crucial data for the new study. Photo: Rainer Kiko, GEOMAR

It is typically assumed that the largest particle density can be found close to the surface and that density attenuates continuously with depth. However, high-resolution particle data show that density increases again in the 300-600-meter depth range. The authors attribute this observation to the daily migratory behavior of organisms such as zooplankton that retreat to these depths during the day, contributing to the particle load via defecation and mortality.

Another surprising result is the observation of many small particles below 1,000 meters depth that contribute a large fraction of the bathypelagic particle flux. This observation counters the general assumption, especially in many biogeochemical models, that particle flux at depth comprises fast sinking particles such as fecal pellets. Diminished remineralization rates of small particles or increased disaggregation of larger particles may contribute to the elevated small particle fluxes at this depth.

Figure 2. Zonal current velocity and Particulate Organic Carbon (POC) content across the equatorial Atlantic at 23˚W as observed in November 2012. From left to right: Zonal current velocity, POC content in small particle fraction and POC content in large particle fraction (adapted from Kiko et al. 2017).

This study highlights the importance of coupled biological and physical processes in understanding and quantifying the biological carbon pump. Further work on this important topic can now also be submitted to the new Frontiers in Marine Science research topic “Zooplankton and Nekton: Gatekeepers of the Biological Pump” (https://www.frontiersin.org/research-topics/8114/zooplankton-and-nekton-gatekeepers-of-the-biological-pump; Co-editors R. Kiko, M. Iversen, A. Maas, H. Hauss and D. Bianchi). The research topic welcomes a broad range of contributions, from individual-based process studies, to local and global field observations, to modeling approaches to better characterize the role of zooplankton and nekton for the biological pump.

Authors:
R. Kiko (GEOMAR)
A. Biastoch (GEOMAR)
P. Brandt (GEOMAR, University of Kiel)
S. Cravatte (LEGOS, University of Toulouse)
H. Hauss (GEOMAR)
R. Hummels (GEOMAR)
I. Kriest (GEOMAR)
F. Marin (LEGOS, University of Toulouse)
A. M. P. McDonnell (University of Alaska Fairbanks)
A. Oschlies (GEOMAR)
M. Picheral (Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche-sur-Mer, Observatoire Océanologique)
F. U. Schwarzkopf (GEOMAR)
A. M. Thurnherr (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory,)
L. Stemmann (Sorbonne Universités, Observatoire Océanologique)

Unexpected acidification of deep waters in the Sea of Japan due to global warming

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, May 22nd, 2018

Oceans worldwide are warming up, and thermohaline circulation is expected to slow down. At the same time, ocean acidity is increasing due to the influx of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere, a phenomenon called ocean acidification that has primarily been documented in shallow waters. In general, deeper waters contain less anthropogenic CO₂, but predicted reductions in ventilation of deep waters may impact deep ocean chemistry, as described in a recent study in Nature Climate Change.

Figure caption: Secular trend of total scale pH at in-situ temperature and pressure at various depths between 1965 and 2015 in the Sea of Japan.

The Sea of Japan is a marginal sea with its own deep- and bottom-water formation that maintains relatively elevated oxygen levels. However, time-series data from 1965-2015 (the longest time-series available) reveal that oxygen concentrations in these deep waters are declining, indicating a reduction in ventilation that increases their residence time. As organic matter decomposition in these waters continues to accumulate more CO₂, the pH decreases. As a result, the acidification rate near the bottom of the Sea of Japan is 27% higher than at the surface. As a miniature ocean with its own deep- and bottom-water formation, the Sea of Japan provides insight into how future warming might alter deep-ocean ventilation and chemistry.

Authors:
Chen-Tung Arthur Chen (National SunYat-sen University, Taiwan and Second Institute of Oceanography, China)
Hon-Kit Lui (National SunYat-sen University and Taiwan Research Institute)
Chia-Han Hsieh (National SunYat-sen University, Taiwan)
Tetsuo Yanagi (International Environmental Management of Enclosed Coastal Seas Center, Japan)
Naohiro Kosugi (Japan Meterological Agency)
Masao Ishii (Japan Meterological Agency)
Gwo-Ching Gong (National Taiwan Ocean University)

Sensitivity of future ocean acidification to carbon-climate feedbacks

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, May 10th, 2018

There are vast unknowns about the future oceans, from what species or habitats may be most under threat to the continuity of earth system processes that maintain global climate. Modeling can be used to predict future states and explore the impacts of climate change, but several key uncertainties such as carbon-climate feedbacks hamper our predictive power.

Authors of a recent study in Biogeosciences (Matear and Lenton 2018) used a global earth system model to explore the effects of carbon-climate feedbacks on future ocean acidification. Ocean acidification can have wide-ranging impacts on keystone species from reef-building corals to pteropods, a major food web species in the Southern Ocean. The study included four representative scenarios (from IPCC) comparing concentration pathway simulations to emission pathway simulations (RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP6, RCP8.5) to determine carbon-climate feedbacks. The high emission scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP6) showed surface water undersaturation a decade or more earlier than expected. Surprisingly, the medium (RCP4.5) scenario carbon-climate feedbacks showed the greatest acidification response, doubling the extent of undersaturation and subsequently halving the area that could sustain coral reefs by 2100. The low emissions scenario also showed significant declines in saturation state.

Surface ocean aragonite saturation state for the 2090s for RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5 concentration and emission pathways. The contour line delineates a saturation state of 3 (coral reef threshold), the white line a saturation state of 1, when aragonite becomes unstable and corals dissolve.

The extra atmospheric CO₂ from the carbon-climate feedback resulted in accelerated ocean acidification in all emission scenarios. These feedbacks may also affect global warming and deoxygenation. This is particularly important, given that many policymakers are aiming for low emission commitments, but may still be severely underestimating the extent and timing of ocean acidification. There is a great need to improve our ability to predict carbon-climate feedbacks so we do not underestimate projected ocean acidification and its impacts on both sensitive ecosystems and the human communities that rely on them for food, coastal protection and other ecosystem services.

Authors:
Richard Matear (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Australia)
Andrew Lenton (Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, Australia)

Feedbacks mitigate the impacts of atmospheric nitrogen deposition in the western North Atlantic

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, April 12th, 2018

How do phytoplankton respond to atmospheric nitrogen deposition in the western North Atlantic, an area downwind of large agricultural and industrial centers? The biogeochemical impacts of this ‘fertilization’ remain unclear, as direct oceanic observations of atmospheric deposition are limited and models often cannot resolve the important processes.

In a recent study, St-Laurent et al. (2017) simulated the biogeochemical impacts of nitrogen deposition on surface waters of the western North Atlantic by combining year-specific deposition rates from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and a realistic 3-D biogeochemical model of the waters off the US east coast. Westerly winds from the continent and large fluxes of heat and moisture over the Gulf Stream produce a ‘hotspot’ of wet nitrogen deposition along the path of the current. This nitrogen input increases the local surface primary productivity by up to 30% during the summer. However, the study also identified important processes that mitigate the impact of atmospheric nitrogen deposition in other seasons and regions. Deposition weakens vertical nitrogen gradients in the upper 20 m and thus decreases the upward transport of nitrogen to the surface layer (a negative feedback). Increases in surface phytoplankton concentrations also negatively impact light availability below the surface through shelf-shading.

Atmospheric nitrogen deposition along the US east coast. (Left) Wet deposition of oxidized nitrogen over the Gulf Stream as simulated by the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (average 2004-2008). (Right) Increase in summer surface primary productivity in response to the deposition (average 2004-2008).

These results indicate that atmospheric nitrogen deposition has important impacts on the surface biogeochemistry of the western North Atlantic but that the response is not simply proportional to the deposition. Additional research is necessary to clarify the role played by atmospheric deposition in this region in past and future centuries. While inputs of atmospheric nitrogen associated with power plants and industries have decreased since the passage of the Clean Air Act, recent studies have revealed increasing atmospheric concentrations of reduced nitrogen. Continued coordination between modeling and observing efforts (both on land and over the ocean) are needed to improve our understanding of the impacts of deposition on the biological pump in this region of the Atlantic ocean.

Authors:
Pierre St-Laurent (VIMS, College of William and Mary)
Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs (VIMS, College of William and Mary)
Raymond G. Najjar (Pennsylvania State University)
Doug Martins (FLIR Systems Inc.)
Maria Herrmann (Pennsylvania State University)
Sonya K. Miller (Pennsylvania State University)
John Wilkin (Rutgers University)

Volcanic carbon dioxide drove ancient global warming event

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, March 29th, 2018

A study recently published in Nature suggests that an extreme global warming event 56 million years ago known as the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was driven by massive CO₂ emissions from volcanoes during the formation of the North Atlantic Ocean. Using a combination of new geochemical measurements and novel global climate modelling, the study revealed that atmospheric CO₂ more than doubled in less than 25,000 years during the PETM.

The PETM lasted ~150,000 years and is the most rapid and extreme natural global warming event of the last 66 million years. During the PETM, global temperatures increased by at least 5^°C, comparable to temperatures projected in the next century and beyond. While it has long been suggested that the PETM event was caused by the injection of carbon into the ocean and atmosphere, the source and total amount of carbon, as well as the underlying mechanism have thus far remained elusive. The PETM roughly coincided with the formation of massive flood basalts resulting from of a series of eruptions that occurred as Greenland and North America started separating from Europe, thereby creating the North Atlantic Ocean. What was missing is evidence linking the volcanic activity to the carbon release and warming that marks the PETM.

To identify the source of carbon, the authors measured changes in the balance of isotopes of the element boron in ancient sediment-bound marine fossils called foraminifera to generate a new record of ocean pH throughout the PETM. Ocean pH tells us about the amount of carbon absorbed by ancient seawater, but we can get even more information by also considering changes in the isotopes of carbon, which provide information about the carbon source. When forced with these ocean pH and carbon isotope data, a numerical global climate model implicates large-scale volcanism associated with the opening of the North Atlantic as the primary driver of the PETM.

North Atlantic microfossil-derived isotope records from extinct planktonic foraminiferal species M. subbotinae relative to the onset of the PETM carbon isotope excursion (CIE). The negative trend in carbon isotope composition (A) during the carbon emission phase is accompanied by decreasing pH (decreasing δ¹¹B, panel B) and increasing temperature (decreasing δ¹⁸O, panel C). Panels D and E zoom in on the PETM CIE, showing microfossil δ¹³C (D) and δ¹¹B-based pH (E) reconstructions. Also included in E are data from Penman et al. (2014) on their original age model, with recalculated (lab-based) pH values.

These new results suggest that the PETM was associated with a total input of >12,000 petagrams of carbon from a predominantly volcanic source. This is a vast amount of carbon—30 times larger than all of the fossil fuels burned to date and equivalent to all current conventional and unconventional fossil fuel reserves. In the following Earth System Model simulations, it resulted in the concentration of atmospheric CO₂ increasing from ~850 parts per million to >2000 ppm. The Earth’s mantle contains more than enough carbon to explain this dramatic rise, and it would have been released as magma poured from volcanic rifts at the Earth’s surface.

How the ancient Earth system responded to this carbon injection at the PETM can tell us a great deal about how it might respond in the future to man-made climate change. Earth’s warming at the PETM was about what we would expect given the CO₂ emitted and what we know about the sensitivity of the climate system based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. However, the rate of carbon addition during the PETM was about twenty times slower than today’s human-made carbon emissions.

In the model outputs, carbon cycle feedbacks such as methane release from gas hydrates—once the favoured explanation of the PETM—did not play a major role in driving the event. Additionally, one unexpected result was that enhanced organic matter burial was important in ultimately drawing down the released carbon out of the atmosphere and ocean and thereby accelerating the recovery of the Earth system.

Authors:
Marcus Gutjahr (National Oceanography Centre Southamption, GEOMAR)
Andy Ridgwell (Bristol University, University of California Riverside)
Philip F. Sexton (The Open University, UK)
Eleni Anagnostou (National Oceanography Centre Southamption)
Paul N. Pearson (Cardiff University)
Heiko Pälike (University of Bremen)
Richard D. Norris (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
Ellen Thomas (Yale University, Wesleyan University)
Gavin L. Foster (National Oceanography Centre Southamption)

Increased temperatures suggest reduced capacity for carbon

Posted by mmaheigan

· Thursday, January 18th, 2018

The ocean’s biological pump works to draw down atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) by exporting carbon from the surface ocean. This process is less efficient at higher temperatures, implying a possible climate feedback. Recent work by Cael et al. provides an explanation of why this feedback occurs and an estimate of its severity.

In a highly simplified view, carbon export depends on the balance between two temperature-dependent processes: 1) The autotrophic production and 2) the heterotrophic respiration of organic carbon. Cael and Follows (Geophysical Research Letters 2016) recently developed a mechanistic model based on established temperature dependencies for photosynthesis and respiration to explore feedbacks between export efficiency and climate. Heterotrophic growth rates increase more so than phototrophic rates with increasing temperature, which suggests that at higher temperatures, community respiration will increase relative to production, thereby decreasing export efficiency. Although simplistic, the model captures the temperature dependence of export efficiency observations.

Figure: Schematic of the mechanism on which the Cael and Follows (2016) model is based. (a) Photosynthesis (dark grey) and respiration (light grey) respond to temperature differently, yielding (b) a decline in export efficiency at higher temperatures.

More recently, Cael, Bisson, and Follows (Limnology and Oceanography 2017) applied this model to sea surface temperature records and estimated a ~1.5% decline in globally-averaged export efficiency over the past three decades of increasing ocean temperatures as a result of this metabolic mechanism. This ~1.5% decline is equivalent to a reduced ocean sequestration of approximately 100 million fewer tons of carbon annually, comparable to the annual carbon emissions of the United Kingdom. The model provides a framework in which to consider the relationship between climate and ocean carbon export that might also elucidate large-scale (e.g., glacial-interglacial) atmospheric CO₂ changes of the past.

Authors:
B. B. Cael (MIT/WHOI)
Kelsey Bisson (UCSB)
Mick Follows (MIT)

Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

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