New OCB Research :: Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry

Studying marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles in the face of environmental change

Archive for New OCB Research – Page 18

Forecasting air-sea CO2 flux variations several years in advance

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, July 9th, 2019

Year-to-year changes in the flux of CO₂ between the atmosphere and the ocean impact the global carbon cycle and climate system, and challenge our ability to verify fossil fuel CO₂ emissions. A new study published in Earth System Dynamics suggests that these air-sea CO₂ flux variations are predictable several years in advance.

A novel set of initialized forecasts of past air-sea CO₂ flux from an Earth system model (Figure 1a) confidently predicts year-to-year variations in the globally-integrated flux up to two years in advance. At regional scales, the forecast lead time increases. The predictability of CO₂ flux from the initialized forecast system exceeds that obtained solely from foreknowledge of variations in external forcing (e.g., volcanic eruptions) or a simple persistence forecast (e.g., CO₂ flux this year will be the same as next year). The longest-lasting forecast enhancements are in the subantarctic Southern Ocean and the northern North Atlantic (Figure 1b).

Figure 1: (a) Forecasts of the past evolution of air-sea CO2 flux in the South Pacific using an Earth System model indicate the potential to predict the future evolution of this quantity. (b) In each biome, the maximum forecast lead time in which the initialized forecast of air-sea CO2 flux beats out other forecast methods.

These results are particularly meaningful for those forecasting year-to-year changes in the global carbon budget, especially as these forecasting efforts are blind to the externally-forced variability in advance (i.e., the external forcing of the future is unknown). In this way, forecasts of air-sea CO₂ flux variations can help to inform future predictions of land-air CO₂ flux and atmospheric CO₂ concentration.

Authors:
Nicole Lovenduski (University of Colorado Boulder)
Stephen G. Yeager (National Center for Atmospheric Research)
Keith Lindsay (National Center for Atmospheric Research)
Matthew C. Long (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

See also the OCB Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions: Scoping directions for U.S. research Workshop to be held in October 1-3, 2019

Upwelled hydrothermal Fe stimulates massive phytoplankton blooms in the Southern Ocean

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, July 9th, 2019

Joint feature with GEOTRACES

Figure 1a: Southern Ocean phytoplankton blooms showing distribution, biomass (circle size) and type (color key).

In a recent study, Ardyna et al combined observations of profiling floats with historical trace element data and satellite altimetry and ocean color data from the Southern Ocean to reveal that dissolved iron of hydrothermal origin can be upwelled to the surface. Furthermore, the activity of deep hydrothermal sources can influence upper ocean biogeochemical cycles of the Southern Ocean, and in particular stimulate the biological carbon pump.

Authors:
Mathieu Ardyna
Léo Lacour
Sara Sergi
Francesco d’Ovidio
Jean-Baptiste Sallée
Mathieu Rembauville
Stéphane Blain
Alessandro Tagliabue
Reiner Schlitzer
Catherine Jeandel
Kevin Robert Arrigo
Hervé Claustre

The competing impacts of climate change and nutrient reductions on dissolved oxygen in Chesapeake Bay

Posted by mmaheigan

· Wednesday, June 12th, 2019

The Chesapeake Bay is a 200-mile-long estuary with both economic and ecological importance to the mid-Atlantic region. Runoff, pollution, and algae blooms resulting in hypoxia have been major issues over the past 50 years, and much work has been done to improve the water quality and health of the Bay. Dissolved oxygen concentrations will be altered in response to climate change, but whether this will counteract the benefits of reduced nutrient loading is an important scientific and management question. Specifically, what are the impacts of climate change on future Chesapeake Bay hypoxia and on progress towards meeting water quality standards associated with the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL)?

(Left) Latitudinal along-bay dissolved oxygen (DO) transects for the Base scenario (Base+noCC) and TMDL scenario (TMDL+noCC) without climate change; transects for the absolute and percent changes in DO due to climate change (TMDL+CC). (Right) Cumulative hypoxic volume for six ranges of DO concentrations for each of the study years and each of the scenarios (colored circles).

A recent study in Biogeosciences quantified the competing impacts of climate change and nutrient reductions on Chesapeake Bay hypoxia. The authors used a 3-D modeling system along with projected mid-21st century changes in temperature, freshwater flow, and sea level, assuming fully achieved goals of TMDL nutrient reductions. Of these three climate change factors, increased temperature most strongly impacts future hypoxia, primarily due to decreased solubility year-round and increased respiration and remineralization in the spring. Sea level rise is expected to exhibit a small positive impact resulting from increased estuarine circulation and reduced residence time. Increased river flow is anticipated to exert a small negative impact due to increased nutrient loading.

These results demonstrate that climate change may limit the effectiveness of future management actions aimed at reducing nutrient inputs to the Chesapeake Bay. However, the positive impacts of mandated nutrient reductions still outweigh the negative impacts of climate change. Given that climate impacts are expected to intensify with time and large uncertainties remain among different climate projections, it is critical to continue examining how the Bay may evolve in the future by assessing the sensitivity of oxygen concentrations to different climate change scenarios.

Authors:
Isaac D. Irby (VIMS, William & Mary)
Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs (VIMS, William & Mary)
Fei Da (VIMS, William & Mary)
Kyle E. Hinson (VIMS, William & Mary)

Zooplankton-fueled carbon export is changing in the North Atlantic Ocean

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, June 10th, 2019

Zooplankton-mediated carbon export is an important, but variable and relatively unconstrained part of the biological carbon pump—the processes that fix atmospheric carbon dioxide in organic material and transport it from the upper sunlit ocean to depth. Changes in the biological pump impact the climate system, but are challenging to quantify because such analyses require spatially and temporally explicit information about biological, chemical, and physical properties of the ocean, where empirical observations are in short supply.

A recent study in Nature, Ecology and Evolution focused on copepods in the northern half of the North Atlantic Ocean, where the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) time series program has documented surface plankton abundance and taxonomic composition for nearly six decades. Copepods transport carbon passively by producing sinking fecal pellets while feeding near the sea surface, and actively via daily and seasonal migrations to deeper waters where carbon is released through respiration, defecation, and mortality. Using allometry, metabolic theory, and an optimal behavior model, the authors examined patterns of passive and active carbon transport from 1960 to 2014 and sensitivity of carbon export to different model inputs.

Figure caption: Spatial distribution and change, from 1960 to 2014, of modeled copepod-mediated carbon flux: top left – mean passive carbon flux (sinking fecal pellets), bottom left – change in passive carbon flux, top right – mean active carbon flux (respiration plus fecal pellets produced during diel vertical migration), bottom right – change in active carbon flux.

The authors observed that from southern Iceland to the Gulf of Maine, copepod-mediated carbon transport has increased over the last six decades, with the highest rates around 30 mgC m^-2 y^-1 each decade for passive flux, and 4 mgC m^-2 y^-1 each decade for active flux. Meanwhile, it has decreased across much of the more temperate central northern North Atlantic with highest rates around 69 mgC m^-2 y^-1 each decade for passive flux and 8 mgC m^-2 y^-1 each decade for active flux. This pattern is largely driven by changes in copepod population distributions and community structure, specifically the distributions of large and abundant species (e.g. Calanus spp.). These results suggest that shifts in species distributions driven by a changing global climate are already impacting ecosystem function across the northern North Atlantic Ocean. These shifts are not latitudinally uniform, thus highlighting the complexity of marine ecosystems. This study demonstrates the importance of these sustained plankton measurements and how plankton-mediated carbon fluxes can be mechanistically implemented in next-generation biogeochemical models.

Authors:
Philipp Brun (Technical University of Denmark and Swiss Federal Research Institute)
Karen Stamieszkin (University of Maine, Bigelow Lab and Virginia Institute of Marine Science)
Andre W. Visser (Technical University of Denmark)
Priscilla Licandro (Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, and Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Italy)
Mark R. Payne (Technical University of Denmark)
Thomas Kiørboe (Technical University of Denmark)

Also see OCB2019 plenary session: The effect of size on ocean processes (allometry) and implications for export (Thursday, June 27, 2019)

Ocean microbes drive fluctuating nutrient loss

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, May 28th, 2019

The removal of bioavailable nitrogen (N) by anaerobic microbes in the ocean’s oxygen deficient zones (ODZs) is thought to vary over time primarily as a result of climate impacts on ocean circulation and primary production. However, a recent study in PNAS using a data-constrained model of the microbial ecosystem in the world’s largest ODZ revealed that internal species oscillations cause local- to basin-scale fluctuations in the rate of N loss, even in a completely stable physical environment. Such ecosystem oscillations have been hypothesized for nearly a century in idealized models, but are rarely shown to persist in a three-dimensional ocean circulation model.

Figure caption. Ecological variability in the basin-scale rate of nitrogen loss over time (left) and in the local-scale contribution of autotrophic anammox to total N loss (right) in a model with unchanging ocean circulation. In the left panel, colors represent model simulations with different biological parameters. In the right panel, colors represent distinct locations within the ODZ in the standard model simulation.

These emergent ecosystem dynamics arise at the oxic-anoxic interface from O₂-dependent resource competition between aerobic and anaerobic microbes, and leave a unique geochemical fingerprint: infrequent spikes in ammonium that are observable in nutrient measurements from the ODZ. Non-equilibrium ecosystem behavior driven by competition among aerobic nitrifiers, anaerobic denitrifiers, and anammox bacteria also generates fluctuations in the balance of autotrophic versus heterotrophic N loss pathways that help reconcile conflicting field observations.

These internally driven fluctuations in microbial community structure partially obscure a direct correspondence between the chemical environment and microbial rates, a universal assumption in biogeochemical models. Because of the fundamental nature of the underlying mechanism, similar dynamics are hypothesized to occur across wide-ranging microbial communities in diverse habitats.

Authors:
Justin L. Penn (University of Washington)
Thomas Weber (University of Rochester),
Bonnie X. Chang (University of Washington, NOAA)
Curtis Deutsch (University of Washington)

See also the OCB2019 plenary session: Anthropogenic changes in ocean oxygen: Coastal and open ocean perspectives (Monday, June 24, 2019)

Suddenly shallow: A new aragonite saturation horizon will soon emerge in the Southern Ocean

Posted by mmaheigan

· Monday, May 27th, 2019

Earth System Models (ESMs) project that by the end of this century, the aragonite saturation horizon (the boundary between shallower, saturated waters and deeper, undersaturated waters that are corrosive to aragonitic shells) will shoal all the way to the surface in the Southern Ocean, yet the temporal evolution of the horizon has not been studied in much detail. Rather than a gradual shoaling, a new shallow aragonite saturation horizon emerges suddenly across many locations in the Southern Ocean between now and the end of the century (Figure 1, left), as detailed in a new study published in Nature Climate Change.

Figure 1: Maximum step-change in the depth of the aragonite saturation horizon (left), timing of the step-change (center), and cause of the change (right). Xs on the time axis (center) indicate when the shallow horizon emerges in each ensemble member. (click image to enlarge)

The emergence of the shallow aragonite saturation horizon is apparent in each member of an ensemble of climate projections from an ESM, but the step change occurs during different years (Figure 1, center). The shoaling is driven by the gradual accumulation of anthropogenic CO₂ in the Southern Ocean thermocline, where the carbonate ion concentration exhibits a local minimum and approaches undersaturation (Figure 1, right).

The abrupt shoaling of the Southern Ocean aragonite saturation horizon occurs under both business-as-usual and emission-stabilizing scenarios, indicating an inevitable and sudden decrease in the volume of suitable habitat for aragonitic organisms such as shelled pteropods, foraminifers, cold-water corals, sea urchins, molluscs, and coralline algae. Widespread reductions in these habitats may have far-reaching consequences for fisheries, economies, and livelihoods.

Authors:
Gabriela Negrete-García (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
Nicole Lovenduski (University of Colorado Boulder)

See also OCB2019 plenary session: Carbon cycle feedbacks from the seafloor (Wednesday, June 26, 2019)

Microbes: Gatekeepers of earth’s deep carbon?

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, May 14th, 2019

In 2017, an interdisciplinary group of early career scientists, the Biology Meets Subduction team, visited Costa Rica’s subduction zone, where the ocean floor sinks beneath the continent, to find out if subterranean microbes affect geological processes that move carbon from Earth’s surface into the deep interior.

Using carbon and helium isotope measurements of water and nearby sediments from geothermal springs in northern and central Costa Rica, the study published recently in Nature demonstrated that microbes consume and trap a small but measurable amount of the carbon sinking into the trench off Costa Rica’s Pacific coast. The microbes may also be involved in chemical processes that pull out even more carbon, leaving cement-like veins of calcite in the crust.

Figure 1: Schematic of deep carbon cycle subduction at the forearc region and into the mantle.

The team discovered that low temperatures in the forearc support microbial life and water-rock interactions that divert the down-going carbon from the subducting slab and trap it in the crust. The study estimates that about 94 percent of that redirected carbon transforms into calcite minerals and microbial biomass.

Figure 2: Biofilm in a natural seep in Costa Rica. Credit: Peter Barry.

These unexpected findings have important implications for how much carbon moves from Earth’s surface into the interior, especially over geological timescales. If these biological and geochemical processes occur worldwide, they would translate to 19% less carbon entering the deep mantle than previously estimated.

Authors:
PH Barry
JM de Moor
D Giovannelli
M Schrenk
D Hummer
T Lopez
CA Pratt
Y Alpízar Segura
A Battaglia
P Beaudry
G Bini
M Cascante
G d’Errico

M di Carl
D Fattorini
K Fullerton
E Gazel
G González
SA Halldórsson
K Iacovino
JT Kulongoski
E Manini
M Martínez
H Miller
M Nakagawa
S Ono

S Patwardhan
CJ Ramírez
F Regoli
F Smedile
S Turner
C Vetriani
M Yücel
CJ Ballentine
TP Fischer
DR Hilton
KG Lloyd

South Pacific particulate organic carbon fate challenges Martin’s Law

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, May 14th, 2019

Joint science highlight with GEOTRACES

Carbon storage in the ocean is sensitive to the depths at which particulate organic carbon (POC) is respired back to CO₂ within the twilight zone (100-1000m). For decades, it has been an oceanographic priority to determine the depth scale of this regeneration process. To investigate this, GEOTRACES scientists are deploying new isotopic tools that provide a high-resolution snapshot of POC flux and regeneration across steep biogeochemical gradients in the South Pacific Ocean.

A recent paper in PNAS reported on particulate organic carbon (POC) fluxes throughout the water column (focusing on the upper 1000 m) along the GP16 GEOTRACES section between Peru and Tahiti (Figure 1A). POC fluxes (Figure 1B) were derived by normalizing concentrations of POC to ²³⁰Th following analysis of samples collected by in situ filtration. This work builds on a research theme initiated at the GEOTRACES-OCB synthesis workshop held at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in 2016.

Figure caption: Site map and POC flux characteristics from GEOTRACES GP16 section. Plot A) shows the GP16 station locations as white circles, with nearby sediment trap deployments as black stars, with 2013 MODIS satellite-derived net primary productivity in the background. Plot B) shows POC fluxes from particulate 230Th-normalization from selected stations spanning the zonal extent of the GP16 section. Plot C) shows power law exponent b values for each GP16 station (blue), compared to estimates from bottom-moored sediment traps in the South Pacific (black and red dashed lines), a compilation of sediment traps in the North Pacific (green dashed line), and neutrally buoyant sediment traps in the subtropical North Pacific (yellow shaded band). GP16 regeneration length scales from 230Th-normalization agree most closely with the estimates from neutrally buoyant sediment traps.

The study results show that POC regeneration depth is shallower than anticipated, especially in warm stratified waters of the subtropical gyre. Regeneration depth—expressed in terms of the Martin-curve power-law exponent “b” (Figure 1C)—is shown to be greater than previous estimates (horizontal dashed lines), but similar to values obtained using neutrally buoyant sediment traps at the Hawaii Ocean Time-series Station Aloha. In contrast to the rapid regeneration of POC in warm stratified waters, POC regeneration within the ODZ is below our detection limits. Models have shown that shallower regeneration of POC leads to less efficient carbon storage in the ocean, making the authors speculate that global warming, yielding expanded and more stratified gyres, may induce a reduction of the ocean’s efficacy for carbon storage via the biological pump.

Authors:
Frank J. Pavia, Robert F. Anderson, Sebastian M. Vivancos, Martin Q. Fleisher (Columbia University)
Phoebe J. Lam (University of California Santa Cruz)
B.B. Cael (now at University of Hawai’i Manoa, formerly at MIT)
Yanbin Lu, Pu Zhang, R. Lawrence Edwards (University of Minnesota)
Hai Cheng (University of Minnesota and Xi’an Jiaotong University)

Nutrient and carbon limitation drive broad-scale patterns of mixotrophy in the ocean

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, May 14th, 2019

In the ocean, unicellular eukaryotes are often mixotrophic, which means they photosynthesize and also consume prey. In recent decades, it has become clear that mixotrophs are ubiquitous in sunlit ocean habitats. Additionally, models predict that mixotrophs have important impacts on productivity, nutrient cycling, carbon export, and food web structure. However, there is little understanding of the environmental conditions that select for a mixotrophic lifestyle, and it is unclear how mixotrophs succeed in competition with autotrophic and heterotrophic specialists. A recent study in PNAS that synthesized measurements of mixotrophic nanoflagellates showed that mixotrophs are more abundant in stratified, well-lit, low latitude environments (Figure 1A). They are also more abundant, relative to pure heterotrophs, in productive coastal environments (Figure 1B). A trait-based model analysis revealed that the success of mixotrophs depends on the fact that they are less nutrient-limited than autotrophs (due to prey-derived nutrients) and less carbon-limited than heterotrophs (due to photosynthesis). This synergy requires sufficient light, leading to success in low latitude environments. Similarly, a greater supply of dissolved nutrients relative to prey, as commonly observed in coastal environments, favors mixotrophs relative to heterotrophs. One implication of these results is that carbon fixation at lower latitudes may be enhanced by mixotrophy, while limiting nutrients may be more efficiently transferred to higher trophic levels.

Figure 1. Estimated abundance of autotrophic, mixotrophic, and heterotrophic nanoflagellates across environmental gradients in the ocean.

Author:
Kyle Edwards (Univ. Hawaii at Manoa)

A synthesis of North American coastal carbon fluxes

Posted by mmaheigan

· Tuesday, April 30th, 2019

Carbon fluxes in the coastal ocean and across its boundaries with the atmosphere, land, and the open ocean are an important but poorly constrained component of the global carbon budget. By synthesizing available observations and model simulations, a recent study aims to answer 1) whether the coastal ocean of North America takes up atmospheric CO₂ and exports carbon to the open ocean; and 2) if so, how much? The authors estimate a net carbon sink of 160±80 Tg C yr⁻¹ in the North American Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) with the Arctic, sub-Arctic and mid-latitude Atlantic EEZ regions as the major contributors.

Portion of EEZ	Tg C yr⁻¹	% of the total area
Arctic and sub-Arctic	104	51%
Mid-latitude Atlantic	62	25%
Mid-latitude Pacific	-3.7	24%

Table 1: Regional breakdown of estimated carbon sink in the North Atlantic EEZ (negative values imply a carbon source).

Combining the net uptake with an estimate of carbon input from land of minus estimates of burial and accumulation of dissolved carbon in EEZ waters as follows implies a carbon export of 151±105 Tg C yr⁻¹ to the open ocean.

160±80

Tg C yr⁻¹

106±30

Tg C yr⁻¹

–

65±55

Tg C yr⁻¹

–

50±25

Tg C yr⁻¹

151±105

Tg C yr⁻¹

Net uptake

Carbon input from land

Estimated burial

Estimated accumulation DOC in EEZ waters

Carbon export to open ocean (estimated C export to open ocean)

The estimated uptake of atmospheric carbon in the North American EEZ amounts to 6.4% of the global ocean uptake of atmospheric CO₂ (est. 2,500 Tg C yr⁻¹). The North American EEZ only represents ~4% of the global ocean surface area, thus the CO₂ uptake is about 50% more efficient in the North American EEZ than the global average. Given the importance of coastal margins, both in contributing to carbon budgets and in the societal benefits they provide, further efforts to improve assessments of the carbon cycle in these regions are paramount. It is critical to maintain and expand existing coastal observing programs, continue national and international coordination and integration of observations, modeling capabilities, and stakeholder needs.

Figure: Area-specific carbon fluxes for North American coastal regions (a, b and d) and total fluxes for a decomposition of the EEZ (c, e).

Authors:
Katja Fennel, Timothée Bourgeois (Dalhousie University, Canada)
Simone Alin, Richard A. Feely, Adrienne Sutton (NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)
Leticia Barbero (NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory)
Wiley Evans (Hakai Institute, Canada)
Sarah Cooley (Ocean Conservancy)
John Dunne (NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Jose Martin Hernandez-Ayon (Autonomous University of Baja California, Mexico)
Xinping Hu (Texas A&M University)
Steven Lohrenz (University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth)
Frank Muller-Karger, Lisa Robbins (University of South Florida)
Raymond Najjar (Pennsylvania State University)
Elizabeth Shadwick (CSIRO, Australia)
Samantha Siedlecki, Penny Vlahos (University of Connecticut)
Nadja Steiner (Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada)
Daniela Turk (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory)
Zhaohui Aleck Wang (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

Funding for the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Project Office is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The OCB Project Office is housed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

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