Since preindustrial times, the ocean has removed from the atmosphere 41% of the carbon emitted by human industrial activities (Figure 1). The globally integrated rate of ocean carbon uptake is increasing in response to rising atmospheric CO2 levels and is expected to continue this trend for the foreseeable future. However, the inherent uncertainties in ocean surface and interior data associated with ocean carbon uptake processes make it difficult to predict future changes in the ocean carbon sink. In a recent paper, McKinley et al. (2017), review the mechanisms of ocean carbon uptake and its spatiotemporal variability in recent decades. Looking forward, the potential for direct detection of change in the ocean carbon sink, as distinct from interannual variability, is assessed using a climate model large ensemble, a novel approach to studying climate processes with an earth systems model, the “large ensemble.” In a large ensemble, many runs of the same model are done so as to directly distinguish natural variability from long-term trends.

This analysis illustrates that variability in CO2 flux is large enough to prevent detection of anthropogenic trends in ocean carbon uptake on at least decadal to multi-decadal timescales, depending on location. Earliest detection of trends is most attainable in regions where trends are expected to be largest, such as the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Detection will require sustained observations over many decades, underscoring the importance of traditional ship-based approaches and integration of new autonomous observing platforms as part of a global ocean carbon observing system.
Please see a relevant OCB outreach tool on ocean carbon uptake developed by McKinley and colleagues:
OCB teaching/outreach slide deck Temporal and Spatial Perspectives on the Fate of Anthropogenic Carbon: A Carbon Cycle Slide Deck for Broad Audiences – also download explanatory notes



Christiana Ade is a first-year PhD student at North Carolina State University in the Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department. She researches wetlands and coastal environments using satellite remote sensing and field measurements. Her research includes water quality mapping, establishing new environmental indicators, and determining satellite resolution requirements for adequately monitoring wetlands.
Henry Houskeeper
Suhey Ortiz Rosa is a PhD student conducting research with Dr. Roy Armstrong in Bio-Optical Oceanography at the Department of Marine Sciences at the University of Puerto Rico- Mayagüez (UPRM). In 2005, she completed a B.S. in Coastal Marine Biology at the University of Puerto Rico- Humacao, and in 2010, a MS in Chemical Oceanography at UPRM. Suhey’s work focuses on the biogeochemistry of coastal waters and coral reefs, validating algorithms from satellite imagery of complex optical waters, remote sensing, and GIS. Previously, she worked on CDOM characterization with PARAFAC, mapping marine species distribution with the GAP-Analysis Project of Puerto Rico and later with watershed analysis of sedimentation processes on coral reefs.
Sara Rivero-Calle is a postdoctoral researcher at the Levine Lab in the University of Southern California interested in projects that involve large datasets, combining remote sensing and in situ data to answer large-scale ecological questions. She first learned about satellite remote sensing during her MS program at the University of Puerto Rico working on mesophotic reef sponge ecology using Autonomous Underwater Vehicles. She earned a PhD from Johns Hopkins University, where she used the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey to study long-term changes in North Atlantic phytoplankton communities. Currently, Sara is conducting postdoctoral research on fine-scale variability and patchiness, combining remote sensing, float, and HPLC data with numerical models.
Sarah Schlunegger is a PhD Student in the Program of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, advised by Prof. Jorge Sarmiento. Sarah uses Earth System Models to predict the timing, sequence and inter-dependence of emerging anthropogenic signals in the ocean, with a focus on the ocean’s acquisition of anthropogenic carbon and heat. The ocean provides a climate service by absorbing the atmosphere’s excess carbon and heat but at a cost, namely acidification and warming, which deteriorate marine habitats. Sarah’s primary research goal is to identify when and where changes in these heat/carbon sinks and their resulting impacts will be detectable in the ocean.







